General Election 2017 thread

[Quincey]

With the General Election a few weeks way, here is the official thread for voting intentions and commenting on the results.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

My predictions

Tories 360ish seats
Labour 210-225 seats
Lib Dems fuck cares
SNP the same amount

[Kelvin]

As it currently stands, it feels like Labour have led a good, well received campaign so far, and that the Tories have been tremendously complacent, and even contemptuous of their core vote. In fact, it's possible Corbyn's Labour might actually do similar numbers to Miliband (in terms of votes), yet still appear to do worse (losing seats), due to the collapse of the UKIP vote.

Ultimately, it will be a majority Tory government, but not on the scale the polls are predicting, as they were weighted against the young post-2015, and Corbyn is likely the cause of a rise in young people registering to vote. I imagine the results will be just good enough and just bad enough that both wings of the Labour Party will have sufficient evidence to claim they were right, without needing to compromise anything or acknowledge their mistakes.

[TheFalconMalteser]

As it currently stands, it feels like Labour have led a good, well received campaign so far, and that the Tories have been tremendously complacent, and even contemptuous of their core vote. In fact, it's possible Corbyn's Labour might actually do similar numbers to Miliband (in terms of votes), yet still appear to do worse (losing seats), due to the collapse of the UKIP vote.

Ultimately, it will be a majority Tory government, but not on the scale the polls are predicting, as they were weighted against the young post-2015, and Corbyn is likely the cause of a rise in young people registering to vote. I imagine the results will be just good enough and just bad enough that both wings of the Labour Party will have sufficient evidence to claim they were right, without needing to compromise anything or acknowledge their mistakes.

I think vote share, not votes.  Hard to imagine turnout will be higher than 2015?

[Dr Rock]

The way the Tories are fucking over the pensioners could be a real game-changer, and also make polls based on past voting less reliable. I won't be making any predictions on the results though, except the Tories will almost definitely win.

I'm (arguably?) voting Labour, though as I said elsewhere I may take part in a vote swap deal where I exchange my vote in my safe Labour constituency with someone where its neck and neck Tory/Labour and wants me to vote Green here.... but the person I was twinned with in Hammersmith, where it was exactly that, a marginal that the Tories could take, has dropped out, and the current choices I'm offered don't fit that criteria, so unless I get that scenario offered and I can check out the person is legit, I may not do it and simply vote Labour here.

[Kelvin]

I think vote share, not votes.  Hard to imagine turnout will be higher than 2015?

I think he'll get enough new voters to make up some of the ones he's lost, but the collapse in UKIP's vote will boost the Tories more, meaning Labour will probably do slightly worse in vote share than under Miliband, although not by much.   

edit: no, you're right. My maths is buggered. A drop in ukip vote won't affect Labour vote share, it will only increase the Tory share.

[3D]

the Tories have been tremendously complacent, and even contemptuous of their core vote.

I fully agree with the first point, but they smell blood and are looking to broaden their appeal to capture Labour votes.

I think the Tories believe, with some justification, that the public will simply not countenance the idea of Corbyn as PM, a Marxist as Chancellor and Diane Abbott in charge of the police and the security services.

[Paul Calf]

It's possible some Tory votes could go to third parties: UKIP or the Lib Dems need to promise the earth to pensioners to drag the blue-rinse brigade in.

[Icehaven]

Just had confirmation I'm doing the count, which is good as I've spent the money already.

[Jittlebags]

So the Tory voting crusties will be potentially losing their triple lock, heating allowance, all of their house apart from 100k, unless they have cancer - if they are still voting Tory, then early onset Alzheimer's has clearly set in.

[Jittlebags]

Mind, I cam see a U turn on the house thing though.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Despite the appalling treatment in the press and relentless negativity in the mainstream media it looks as though Corbyn's similarly relentless positivity in response, along with some very useful public appearances are at least holding things steady, indeed maybe cutting through a little.

I mean, really Labour's manifesto has so much vision and so many ideas versus the Tory manifesto which is a mixture of cybical giveaways and just shameless an virtually universally unappealing cuntery. They are increasingly being propped up by their propaganda arm.

[neardark]

Hope TheFalconMalteser dies in his sleep tonight.

[TheFalconMalteser]

Hope TheFalconMalteser dies in his sleep tonight.

State of that, what a thoroughly unpleasant sad little twerp you are!  Haha, amazing!

[BlodwynPig]

I hope thefalconmalteser dies in his sleep someday

[Rich Uncle Skeleton]

registered Labour supporter but voting Lib Dem as it's the only party that stands a chance of getting the fucking useless Tory we've had for 2 years.

I won't bore you with the details but he's some bellend put there just to keep the seat warm, keep his mouth shut and do as he's told lest the grown ups at Tory HQ give him a bollocking.

[ajsmith]

Has this tweet (and fb post) from yesterday been posted here yet?



She says that like it's the most horrific thing imaginable; I know Corbyn's divisive and strongly disliked by many, but I don't think he's quite nearly as universally reviled as this message blithely assumes. They really think the very mention of his name has the repulsive power of 100 Lord Voldermorts. (of course what the tweet doesn't respect you enough to admit is that'd be Johnson dealing with Brexit instead of Starmer anyway, not May instead of Corbyn)

Their arrogance and complacency has been nauseating to watch, makes me really really hope they get bitten badly on the bum in June; in truth I don't think that's likely but I do think it's looking more than possible that they'll gain no ground and it'll all have been a waste of everyone's time, or they'll come out slightly weaker. I have a 'friend' on fb who's a big Tory, and he was posting about May 'heading for a landslide' and objectively I just can't see it, I think he's in his own delusional bubble as much as we lefty liberals are.

[greencalx]

The difference is that their bubble votes, and votes for a single party.

[Danger Man]

So the Tory voting crusties will be potentially losing their triple lock, heating allowance, all of their house apart from 100k, unless they have cancer - if they are still voting Tory, then early onset Alzheimer's has clearly set in.

It's been an amazingly bad Tory campaign so far. May seems almost like Clinton, a cold charmless woman who expects to win because she's been in politics a long time and now it's her turn.

But that would make Corbyn our Saunders, and Clinton did beat him.

[3D]

Hope TheFalconMalteser dies in his sleep tonight.

Socialism, there.

[ajsmith]

It's been an amazingly bad Tory campaign so far. May seems almost like Clinton, a cold charmless woman who expects to win because she's been in politics a long time and now it's her turn.

But that would make Corbyn our Saunders, and Clinton did beat him.

Yeah I get similar Hillary vibes too, the total complacency, the assumption she's got it in the bag. The fact that many support her but no one really likes her and certainly no ones inspired by her.

My Tory pal on facebook was mentioning a May Landslide in the context of being the third act in a hat trick preceded by Brexit and Trump's victory; but to me the real third part of that trilogy would be if the Tories lost in June, as Brexit and Trump's win both went against what everyone (even their supporters if they were honest) always assumed was going to happen.

[Replies From View]

Socialism, there.

Explain how it is socialism or fuck off.

[3D]

So the Tory voting crusties will be potentially losing their triple lock, heating allowance, all of their house apart from 100k, unless they have cancer - if they are still voting Tory, then early onset Alzheimer's has clearly set in.

I thought CaB's broad opinion was that old people should be killed. Has that suddenly changed?

I was surprised to hear Corbyn suddenly leap on the bandwagon, as I was expecting an announcement of a sort of Steptoe's Run to make sure those who have paid in all their lives are disposed of to pay for all the free stuff for all those suspiciously large, moustachioed children. In fact, I hadn't heard JihadiJez so much as mention the elderly until the Tory manifesto, unless John McDonnell counts.

At the moment they get to "keep" £23,500, by the way. Many elderly people keep below that figure.

[3D]

Explain how it is socialism or fuck off.

More Socialism.

[3D]

Yeah I get similar Hillary vibes too, the total complacency, the assumption she's got it in the bag. The fact that many support her but no one really likes her and certainly no ones inspired by her.

Thought that was the Russians.

[Zetetic]

At the moment they get to "keep" £23,500, by the way. Many elderly people keep below that figure.

This misunderstands the most significant change, which is to extend the set of assets eligible for means-testing for in-home care. Currently this doesn't include people's houses, under the Tory proposal it will.

(The current arrangement, which focuses on 'financial', rather than 'property', types assets means that it's more likely to be wealthy old people that have to pay for their care - and that they do so with out having to extract equity from their own - possibly shared - home.)

[Danger Man]

The poll at the top reminds me of an old When Saturday Comes cartoon called "If Only Footballers Could Vote"

The pie chart was entirely blue with a small red dot explained as 'Pat Nevin'.

[Rich Uncle Skeleton]

Yeah I get similar Hillary vibes too, the total complacency, the assumption she's got it in the bag. The fact that many support her but no one really likes her and certainly no ones inspired by her.

My Tory pal on facebook was mentioning a May Landslide in the context of being the third act in a hat trick preceded by Brexit and Trump's victory; but to me the real third part of that trilogy would be if the Tories lost in June, as Brexit and Trump's win both went against what everyone (even their supporters if they were honest) always assumed was going to happen.

Yeah, I'll be really fucked off if the trend for shocking results just stops dead with this election and the Tories walk it. Especially if it's because the people who cried about "THE ESTABLISHMENT! THE ELITE!!! THE POLITICAL CLARSE!!!" pretend those very people are absolutely fine (again).

The Clinton comparison is very accurate and I hope it's partly what brings her down, but it's going to take a fucking miracle in the next two and a half weeks for her to unravel enough for people to realise maybe she and the Tories don't have most peoples' interests at heart?? Her campaign has been pretty awful though.

Anybody who sees a May landslide as some "underdog victory" like Brexit and Trump weren't, then they're a fucking idiot.

[Replies From View]

This misunderstands

Mate - you're responding to a post that begins "I thought CaB's broad opinion was that old people should be killed".  Understanding anything is not his top priority.

[3D]

This misunderstands the most significant change, which is to extend the set of assets eligible for means-testing for in-home care. Currently this doesn't include people's houses, under the Tory proposal it will.

(The current arrangement, which focuses on 'financial', rather than 'property', types assets means that it's more likely to be wealthy old people that have to pay for their care - and that they do so with out having to extract equity from their own - possibly shared - home.)

Don't many here believe in an inheritance tax so high the exchequer essentially takes entire estates "for the greater good"? I've seen it argued here many times over the years. It's usually combined with calls for compulsory euthanasia for the old.

Suddenly CaB is terribly worried about the old. What a strange election this has become.