General Election 2017 thread

[Quincey]

UK growth down to just 0.2%.

[TheFalconMalteser]

I'm nearly at the view that this election would have been winnable, or at least contestable.

In one sense, politics for the Labour Party are far more simple than we allow.  Get yourself a credible platform that can appeal to a broad a group of people - especially VOTERS - as possible.  Have a leader that people don't recoil from.  Wait for economic disaster or utter dissatisfaction with the Tory leadership.

And yet, we are where we are.

Perhaps anyone could have won in 1997. If that applies then, it applies now...

[Dr Rock]

UK growth down to just 0.2%.

And yet all the Tory manifesto pledges are 'costed' on the assumption that the economy will be much stronger. How are they going to achieve this?

Although I agree with whoever said that far too few people vote based on manifesto pledges - they expect them to be broken, and also tend to fall back on their core opinions of the parties. Never mind that the Tories are caught clearly planning to raise taxes, they just say they have always been the party of low taxation. Never mind that Labour have pledged to only increase taxes on those earning more than 80k, many just associate them with tax & spend and the Tories and their media get away with saying 'under Labour everybody will face higher taxation' based on nothing.

[Dr Rock]

Have a leader that people don't recoil from.

Name him/her.

[Kelvin]

I'm nearly at the view that this election would have been winnable, or at least contestable.

In one sense, politics for the Labour Party are far more simple than we allow.  Get yourself a credible platform that can appeal to a broad a group of people - especially VOTERS - as possible.  Have a leader that people don't recoil from.  Wait for economic disaster or utter dissatisfaction with the Tory leadership.

And yet, we are where we are.

Perhaps anyone could have won in 1997. If that applies then, it applies now...

Surely this is an admission that left wing politics could win an election just like the "centrist" politics you espouse? And post-Corbyn, why should left wingers compromise and support a centrist candidate in the future, if a good left wing candidate could win?   

[buttgammon]

Wrexham then? I'm Clwyd South, and that's also looking like a marginal so unfortunately I'm going to have to vote Labour tactically instead of my preferred Plaid. The idea of a Tory MP around here sounds preposterous but apparently it's now likely.

Indeed. I was toying with voting Plaid too but once I saw the predictions, my decision was made for me.

In the worst case scenario, I think Labour could be wiped out in North Wales altogether. If Wrexham goes to the Tories, so will all the neighbouring seats. It's such a thoroughly strange idea in an area where anti-Tory sentiment seemed almost innate.

[Paul Calf]

Surely this is an admission that left wing politics could win an election just like the "centrist" politics you espouse? And post-Corbyn, why should left wingers compromise and support a centrist centre-right candidate in the future, if a good left wing centrist candidate could win?   

[Kelvin]

Phrasing it that way would have meant an argument over whether his politics were centre-right or not. I wanted to focus attention on the question, rather than quibble over positioning.

[TheFalconMalteser]

Surely this is an admission that left wing politics could win an election just like the "centrist" politics you espouse? And post-Corbyn, why should left wingers compromise and support a centrist candidate in the future, if a good left wing candidate could win?   

Because they aren't credible, the ideas aren't credible - there isn't much in the manifesto that is different to "centrism" ffs is there -
indeed on some issues it's less progressive than the Tories, and the leader is a wally.

[colacentral]

Saw this on Twitter, from the UKIP manifesto:



(Someone remind me how to resize this?)

Edit: Ta Moondust

[MoonDust]

(Someone remind me how to resize this?)

Write [img width=xxx]. I usually go for between 400 and 600.

[olliebean]

Interesting contrast here between the Tory election leaflet, with Theresa May's name larger than the local candidate's, and the Labour leaflet with no mention of Corbyn at all.

[MoonDust]

Latest YouGov poll puts:

Tory 43% (-1)
Labour 38% (+3)
Lib Dem 10% (+1)
UKIP 4% (+1)

The Telegraph is saying this poll was taken before the terrorist attacks, but Britain Elects Twitter says the poll is from 24/25th May.

It's narrowing quite a lot!

Those who campaign for Labour, keep up the good work! This can be won!

[olliebean]

This is interesting - seems to show that just before the attack, Jeremy Corbyn's and Labour's net favourability ratings had actually overtaken Theresa May's and the Tories'.



<edit> misread it (mixed up the Corbyn and Labour lines) - Labour had overtaken the Tories by 8 points, but Corbyn was still 3 points behind May.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

The more people are regularly exposed to Corbyn the more they'll like him.

On a week by week basis in Westminster his skills just aren't brought to the fore. As a campaigner he is still perpetually underrated, and as a genuine human being it is beyond doubt - the level of attention he is given in the election helps enormously.

The good thing so far is the media have piled in thinking another few interviews will finish him off, but his decent performances and basic decency have shone through. The more attention they give him, the better he does. This is the complete counter to Falco and GOB's constant assertion. The best thing for Labour right now is for him to be propelled into the spotlight.

Where Smith and Miliband are weak, Corbyn is different, authentic and strong.

This is the only way you can interpret the above data.

[biggytitbo]

It also seems that a lot of establishment stooges in politics and the media still haven't twigged after all thats happened the last few years that the usual kinds of dirty tricks and propaganda they're using agains Corbyn is just as likely to backfire and damage them'

[Hollow]

Great how the Tories appear to be fucking this up...don't they understand that people don't want them to censor the internet? They are announcing it like it's something people want done.

I think most people would rather be in Europe than have the thought police breathing down their necks.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

It also seems that a lot of establishment stooges in politics and the media still haven't twigged after all thats happened the last few years that the usual kinds of dirty tricks and propaganda they're using agains Corbyn is just as likely to backfire and damage them'

They were winning by a mile when they were ignoring and occasionally laughing at him.

[Blumf]

Tories, party of business!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/25/britains-small-businesses-overwhelmingly-reject-tory-manifesto/

Theresa May's manifesto risks losing the Conservatives their image as the party of business, The Daily Telegraph can disclose, after Britian's small companies overwhelmingly rejected their policies and questioned the lack of costing in the policy diktat.

A vanishingly small proportion of companies support the manifesto, while the Prime Minister's mantra of "strong and stable leadership" achieves only modest backing.
...
The biggest worry among Britain's small- and mid-sized enterprises (SMEs) is that the policies have not been costed.
...
The research, which was undertaken from May 18-24, shows that SMEs also object to a series of other policies, but in relatively low numbers, indicating that there are a range of unpopular ideas in the manifesto, without a single solution to address the complaints.

Oh, well... at least they've still got that strong and stable™ thing.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Great how to Tories appear to be fucking this up...don't they understand that people don't want them to censor the internet? They are announcing it like it's something people want done.

I think most people would rather be in Europe than have the thought police breathing down their necks.

Tory polling has remained quite steady actually, it's just Labour polling that is inexorably recovering.

[MoonDust]

This is interesting - seems to show that just before the attack, Jeremy Corbyn's and Labour's net favourability ratings had actually overtaken Theresa May's and the Tories'.



<edit> misread it (mixed up the Corbyn and Labour lines) - Labour had overtaken the Tories by 8 points, but Corbyn was still 3 points behind May.

I was going to link this too. Though we've seen Labour/Con poll gap narrow, I'm genuinely surprised that Theresa May has entered negative numbers for net favourability. Even with all the U-turns, I'd have thought that still wouldn't lose her much support in terms of the general public. Maybe I've underestimated public opinion.

[Hollow]

Tory polling has remained quite steady actually, it's just Labour polling that is inexorably recovering.

Where are the extra voters coming from?

Edit, anywhere else I suppose.

[MoonDust]

Where are the extra voters coming from?

Good question. Perhaps people who've always never voted because "they're all the same" are finally turned on by Corbyn's different approach to politics. This would make sense and fit in with the fact Labour membership sored after he became leader, again, mostly thanks to people who've never been political before but saw Corbyn and realised politics can change for the good.

That, and the young people's vote, who had a shit turn out in 2015, but now there's stats showing a record number of 18 - 25 year olds have registered to vote. I genuinely think the young people could swing it if they all get off their arse and down to the polling station.

[NoSleep]

The percentage has remained steady, not the number of voters who intend to vote Tory. Actually it has been drifting down from the start of the GE Campaign. Essentially the most useless (even more useless than Cameron) PM rode the polls by dint of saying and doing nothing publicly (and not being criticised for the same by the media).

[Hollow]

Good question. Perhaps people who've always never voted because "they're all the same" are finally turned on by Corbyn's different approach to politics. This would make sense and fit in with the fact Labour membership sored after he became leader, again, mostly thanks to people who've never been political before but saw Corbyn and realised politics can change for the good.

That, and the young people's vote, who had a shit turn out in 2015, but now there's stats showing a record number of 18 - 25 year olds have registered to vote. I genuinely think the young people could swing it if they all get off their arse and down to the polling station.

There's a few nefarious things the Tories have snuck in there thinking they were safe I've heard about, I wasn't going to vote for them anyway...wasted vote here, always has been.

[Kelvin]

It's also interesting just how quickly and easily people's opinion of a person can change from negative to positive and visa versa. You'd think that for a person to say they actively disliked a politician, they'd have a strong enough basis for that opinion that it wouldn't change just because he gets more coverage. So it's both reassuring and mildly depressing that people's opinion are that easily changed. 

[Hollow]

I don't like Corbyn's hippie nonsense about nuclear retaliation, fair enough in that one case there's no real point firing back from a humanitarian perspective, but all you have to say is 'I will instruct the Captains to answer to their own consciences'....simple.

[Paul Calf]

It also seems that a lot of establishment stooges in politics and the media still haven't twigged after all thats happened the last few years that the usual kinds of dirty tricks and propaganda they're using agains Corbyn is just as likely to backfire and damage them'

I hear you, but after Brexit and the 2010 and 2015 elections, you'd be excused for thinking that those things still work.

[olliebean]

Great how the Tories appear to be fucking this up...don't they understand that people don't want them to censor the internet? They are announcing it like it's something people want done.

I think most people would rather be in Europe than have the thought police breathing down their necks.

I reckon, with stuff like this and armed soldiers on the streets, that May might have over-estimated how well the trappings of fascism will play with the public. Especially since the soldiers mostly seem to be there to protect our lords and masters, rather than us. I know the point is that it frees up police officers, but the visual is extra protection for the government and the Queen.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

It's also interesting just how quickly and easily people's opinion of a person can change from negative to positive and visa versa. You'd think that for a person to say they actively disliked a politician, they'd have a strong enough basis for that opinion that it wouldn't change just because he get more coverage. So it's both reassuring and mildly depressing that people's opinion are that easily changed.

Yes, in a depoliticised society such as we have, expecting these people to react to anything other than gut feel is unrealistic. One the one hand incredibly dangerous but also demonstrates the likes of Corbyn are not de facto unelectable.

Corbyn must maintain the front foot now. Expand on policy, make the current policies more finessed and eye catching, hammer May on police cuts. Hammer hammer hammer May on police cuts.