Uber-doom mongering ahoy! Peak Oil Data Page

[Kingboy_D]

As you're all probably now aware the BBC are about to screen what if... the lights go out , an hour long feature about what would happen to Britain in the event of an energy shortage. As scary as this looks, it appears from the article them they are actually downplaying the extent of the problem. Recently Shell have cut their reserves by a fifth, leading some analysts to worry whether other companies have made similar 'errors' in reporting their deposits. This would seem likely, as overestimating reserves (which are closely guarded secrets) positively effects their stock price. Similar doubts have been cast on the oilfields of Saudi Arabia, which is home to over a quarter of the world's known reserves. Quite simply we need to shift over to sustainable forms of energy very, very soon our society may be in a real danger of total collapse. I know I'm always banging on about this, so to get to the point, I've just thrown together a data page featuring tons of features, movies, articles and mp3s relating to Peak Oil. So if you want to know more...

Cassandra Clicky

P.S The speech "The End of the Age of Oil - Part 1" by Mike Ruppert is particularly scary. I think old Mike is a bit of a pessimist.

[Purple Tentacle]

I reckon the Tories will propose opening up some coal-mines to deal with the energy crisis, an irony that will make me swallow my own eyes in anger.


I get so angry at the world inside my head sometimes....

[fanny splendid]

I'm currently listening to a debate about wind power on radio 4. Apparently they don't look very pretty.

So there.

I thought all our roofs were to be made of photoelectric cells by now?

Just imagine if we could capture the energy created by worried single verbwhores? All of that potential energy just desperate for a release. I say scientists should be working on a combined battery charger/'perfect woman' cyborg. Different settings could charge different size batteries. With the needle set on, 'quote him some John Donne, look like a Waterhouse painting, and convince him that wet is wonderful', we could power a small village.

[sproggy]

It is definite food for thought.  Fortunately the average Pikey white van man probably doesn't have a clue what's going on, which is preventing widespread panic.  The last thing we need are sensationalist journos' getting on the band wagon and stirring the shite up, this is definitely a situation that requires positive reporting.

My company has seen a very large increase into fusion research particularly over the last three or four years.  The UK has one of the largest research facilities in the world here and interesting results are being made.  Unfortunately I do wonder if it is too little, too late.  Static power generation will not be a major problem if we can manage to think ahead 20 to 30 years, unfortunately the UK government has invested heavily in the cheaper and smaller gas powered stations and will need to get it's act sorted pretty sharpish.

The big area that will be hit is transportation, it is one thing to develop a new energy process the size of seven football pitches, but an entirely different getting it small enough to fit in a car or bus.


There's an even bigger one being planned here a decision will be made later this year as to where it will be built.

[hencole]

Electric cars solves that problem.

[Purple Tentacle]

Or, in the absense of Frinky, garbage powered flying DeLoreans.

[hencole]

One day everyone will be flying them. Perhaps.

[Virtually Perennially]

I get so angry at the world inside my head sometimes....

Isn't that the opening line of Insania? Go on, sing it to an imaginary backbeat in the voice of a eucalyptic eunuch.

Just imagine if we could capture the energy created by worried single verbwhores

A simple dynamo on the right wrist will suffice. Yo: energy crisis -> wanking in five posts. My prize, if you please.


Edit: damn, eight posts. Damn that crap alliteration.

[sproggy]

Electric cars solves that problem.

The big problem at the moment is energy storage i.e. batteries.  Currently they are too bulky and a lot of the energy is wasted humping heavy batteries about.

Research in Hydrogen fuel cells is also hotting up, the car manufacturers have finally begun applying some serious effort.

I don't fancy the idea of flying in an electric plane though.

[Purple Tentacle]

Or, in the absense of Frinky, garbage powered flying DeLoreans.

Actually the joke's on me, because only the Flux Capacitor ran on garbage, the car itself ran on petrol, hence the need to push it along with a steam train when no petrol was available.

I feel such a fool.

[Frinky]

Sorry I'm late, we could all use flying DeLoreans using a small portable cold fusi- oh.

Sorry.

Edit: the DeLo uses a PRV-V6, which could easilly run on cold fusion powers. Don't feel silly, love.

[hencole]

Electric cars solves that problem.

The big problem at the moment is energy storage i.e. batteries.  Currently they are too bulky and a lot of the energy is wasted humping heavy batteries about.

Research in Hydrogen fuel cells is also hotting up, the car manufacturers have finally begun applying some serious effort.

I don't fancy the idea of flying in an electric plane though.

All you need is a long mains extension cable. As long as you go back the same route that you used  to get to your destination I can't see any problems.

[Kingboy_D]

It is definite food for thought.  Fortunately the average Pikey white van man probably doesn't have a clue what's going on, which is preventing widespread panic.  The last thing we need are sensationalist journos' getting on the band wagon and stirring the shite up, this is definitely a situation that requires positive reporting.

Well I half agree, scaremongering doesnt help, but at the same time people need to become aware of the problem before anything can be done. I don't trust that bunch of clowns at Westminister to do anything positive other than invading a few countries and throwing about a couple of contracts to their mates. By and large it seems a kind of head-in-the-sand scenario, keep the Spice flowing while hoping an answer will present itself in the meantime. We should be engaged in projects like building solar panels on our roofs all hook them up to a nationwide grid, but the problems here are a) we'd first need to admit there was a problem, hence the need to educate people and b) that would in a very real sense empower people, which is against the interests of the energy industry and capitalism in general.

Electric cars solves that problem.

Its not quite as simple as that. Hydrogen fuel cells (i assume that's what you're talking about) are a secondary souce of energy, in other words it takes energy to create and store it in the first place. If we all had electric cars It certainly would relieve the burden on oil supplies, but again its just delaying the inevitable. The same goes for nuclear power plants, which to the best of my knowledge are gas or coal fired. We need a new infinite primary source of energy.  Fusion power sounds great, but its still many years off. Something needs to be done in the interim.

[fanny splendid]

All you need is a long mains extension cable. As long as you go back the same route that you used  to get to your destination I can't see any problems.

Just phone the wife at home, and get her to press the 'snap-back' button, and you would return for free. How's that for energy conservation?




...There's always the sun
There's always the sun
Always, always, always the sun...

[Kingboy_D]

The ideal situation.....

[Jon]

There was a thread on this subject on another messageboard I read and somebody posted a decent article disputing the more extreme claims of the scaremongerers.  People have been making predictions about the imminent oil crisis for almost a hundred years, yet people have continually discovered new deposits and the production of oil has continued to increase.  Obviously oil will run out eventually, but it won't be an overnight thing.  As the available supply decreases the price of oil will rise and gradually other energy sources, including renewables, will become more attractive and people will switch to them.  It might result in economic changes for some, but there's no reason to believe it will be the civilisation stopping crash that some people claim.

[ColaCoca]

You can make a start now by switching to a renewable electricty supplier

http://www.uswitch.com

If I change to unit[e], the greenest of green providers, I save £6.92 p.a. over Seeboard apparently.

[Clarky Cat]

You can make a start now by switching to a renewable electricty supplier

http://www.uswitch.com

If I change to unit[e], the greenest of green providers, I save £6.92 p.a. over Seeboard apparently.

Unit[e] are now called 'Good Energy', although the web address is still:

http://www.unit-e.co.uk/

I've been with them for well over a year now and didn't notice any significant
increase in my bills, (for a 3 bed semi) over what Southern Electric were
charging.

[sproggy]

The ideal situation.....

[img]sources of renewable energy piccie[img]

That cow is crying out to be stuck on a treadmill, you could squeeze a few extra kWhr out if it then.

I agree wholeheartedly with what you're saying Kingboy  I've been keeping a close eye on your website and posts here on CaB.  I think Journos' have a duty of care to the general public on this, they should be concentrating on the positive aspects of renewables and publicising research programmes, as well as educating people to cut down on waste and become more energy efficient.  

Again I come back to transport, which is my biggest arse-ache, if we had a decent rail infrastructure, the thousands of lorries on our roads could be put on low-loader rolling stock and trundled around the country, instead of clogging up the roads.  This could be offered to car users wishing to travel long distance also.  Cheap air flights are also putting a large strain on fuel reserves, with the added downside of stuffing all their pollution right up in the upper atmosphere where it can do the most damage.  Diesel powered ships also contribute massive amounts of shit pollution to the environment because marine diesel is poorly refined.  Wind power and airships could be an ideal solution for long haul freight.

Humans have become incredibly lazy over the last hundred years or so and we now favour the path of least resistance.  The fuel strikes a couple of years ago gave the UK a taster of what it would be like without peccie to stick in their SUV's and Mayfair tractors, imagine what that would like permanently?

All you need is a long mains extension cable. As long as you go back the same route that you used to get to your destination I can't see any problems.

I'll set 'em up, you just keep 'em coming. ; )

[Sherringford Hovis]

I think Journos' have a duty of care to the general public on this, they should be concentrating on the positive aspects of renewables and publicising research programmes, as well as educating people to cut down on waste and become more energy efficient.  

Most of us journo scum know this, yet are increasingly having our hands tied by management lest we scare off the advertisers.

[sproggy]

I think Journos' have a duty of care to the general public on this, they should be concentrating on the positive aspects of renewables and publicising research programmes, as well as educating people to cut down on waste and become more energy efficient.  

Most of us journo scum know this, yet are increasingly having our hands tied by management lest we scare off the advertisers.

Put down your XBOX and RISE UP comrade, overthrow the fascist Junta and tell the world the truth, our destiny is in your hands.

Alternatively you could continue telling us who Jordan shagged last night.

[Kingboy_D]

People have been making predictions about the imminent oil crisis for almost a hundred years, yet people have continually discovered new deposits and the production of oil has continued to increase.

Each new 'large deposit' that gets discovered will alone supply the world with oil for just over five days. Every year we use four times as much oil than we find, and furthermore we're using it faster than ever before, and rising counties like India and China are wanting an increasingly bigger slice of the pie. The largest deposits (Texas, Saudi) had all been discovered by the mid 60's, I think the last large significant one was the North Sea gasfields, which appears to be in terminal decline.  The problem is economists are making predictions on future trends that are market based, while geologists (the guys generally ringing the alarm bells) say that hydrocarbon production is about to peak, or worse still has already peaked. Economists simply don't want to hear that.

Obviously oil will run out eventually, but it won't be an overnight thing.

We won't run out of oil overnight, thats right, there will be oil in the ground even a million years in the future. The problem lies in that new fields are getting smaller and smaller and more and more difficult to extract, and it will soon come to a point where it takes more energy to extract it than you get burning it, and more cost to dig it up than you can get selling it. Then what? And gas doesn't go into deline like oil, it falls off a cliff, that may well be an overnight thing.

What compounds the issue is deragulation of the energy industry. In a nationalised energy sector there is excess energy being produced, in a privatised industry excess is seen as waste, so there isn't any. If there is a really cold winter and an increase in gas usage, or a very hot summer and an increase in air conditioning, there simply won't be enough juice to go round, then you've got your blackouts.

As the available supply decreases the price of oil will rise and gradually other energy sources, including renewables, will become more attractive and people will switch to them.  It might result in economic changes for some, but there's no reason to believe it will be the civilisation stopping crash that some people claim.

You see this is the market based argument put forward by Economists, its a worldview based on the theory (or myth) that the free market economy will morph and adapt to all potential scenarios like a living orgianism.  But economists deal with figures, geologists facts. In other worlds you should be skeptical of economists telling you how much oil is left.

There was a thread on this subject on another messageboard I read and somebody posted a decent article disputing the more extreme claims of the scaremongerers.

Here's a few of the leading scaremongers, followed by mini biogs and quotes.

Matthew Simmons
Matthew is "CEO of the world's largest Energy Investment Bank, Simmons & Company International.  Its clients include Halliburton; Baker, Botts, LLP; Dynegy; Kerr-McGee; and the World Bank. Since 1993, it has underwritten or financed 18 transactions valued at more than $350 million. Of those, six were valued at more than $1 billion. Simmons is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and serves on the National Petroleum Council's Natural Gas Task Force."

I have for years described two camps: the economists who told us that technology would always produce new supply and the pessimists or Cassandras who told us that peak was coming in maybe fifteen or twenty years. We may be finding out that we went over the peak in 2000. That makes both camps wrong.

Over the last year. I have obtained and closely examined more than 100 very technical production reports from Saudi Arabia. What I glean from examining the data is that it is very likely that Saudi Arabia, already a debtor nation, has very likely gone over its Peak. If that is true, then it is a certainty that planet earth has passed its peak of production.

What that means, in the starkest possible terms, is that we are no longer going to be able to grow. It's like with a human being who passes a certain age in life. Getting older does not mean the same thing as death. It means progressively diminishing capacity, a rapid decline, followed by a long tail....

The solution is to pray. Pray for mild weather and a mild winter. Pray for no hurricanes and to stop the erosion of natural gas supplies. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty.

Dr Colin J. Campbell
"He is now a Trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre ("ODAC"), a charitable organisation in London that is dedicated to researching the date and impact of the peak and decline of world oil production due to resource constraints, and raising awareness of the serious consequences."

Our lack of preparedness is itself amazing, given the importance of oil to our lives. The warnings were rejected and discredited as if they were words of soothsayers and prophets. I myself have been called a Cassandra But the warnings were not prophecy, it simply recognised two undeniable facts.

First: you have to find oil before you can produce it,

Second: production has to mirror discovery.

Discovery reached a peak in the 1960s - despite all the technology we hear so much about and a worldwide search for the best prospects. It should surprise no one that we now face the corresponding peak of production. This simple reasoning has been however rejected by flat-earth economists and others with a blind faith in technology and markets forces. Worse still, governments have listened to bad advice...

....The poor countries of the world will bear most of the burden. But the United States will be in serious difficulties. There is, I think, a strong danger of some ill-considered military intervention to try to secure oil. A stock market crash seems inevitable, as some investment managers are now telling us.  (quote from December 2000)

Dr Albert Bartlett
"Over the years, few people have contributed as much to physics education as Albert Bartlett. His paper "Physics from the News: Curve Fitting" in the May issue of The Physics Teacher deserves careful reading. Al carefully analyzes the Transportation Department estimate that a single 40,000-kg truck does as much damage to an interstate highway as 9600 cars to illustrate how "real world" physics problems can be incorporated into our physics teaching."

"My analysis, based on geological esitmates of the total world resource of petrolium, suggests that world petrolium production will peak around the year 2004, and thereafter will start its inevitable decline towards zero"

Prof. Kenneth Deffeyes
Author of Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. Kenneth S. Deffeyes is Professor Emeritus at Princeton University. Before joining the Princeton faculty in 1967, he conducted research at the Shell Oil research laboratory in Houston and taught at the University of Minnesota and Oregon State University. The coauthor of Physical Geology and the author of numerous papers, he is perhaps best known to general readers as the guide/mentor in John McPhee's series of popular books on geology, collected and republished under the title Annals of the Former World.

At the end of December, Oil & Gas Journal published their oil production figures for calendar year 2003. From 2000 to 2003, world crude oil production has been essentially flat, which is to be expected as we roll over the top of the bell-shaped Hubbert curve.

And so on....

[Clarky Cat]

Every year we use four times as much oil than we find, and furthermore we're using it faster than ever before, and rising counties like India and China are wanting an increasingly bigger slice of the pie.

I think this is the key. Even if the rate of oil production increases in line with the current rate of consumption, that isn't good enough. The rate of consumption is increasing. There are probably billions of people who would dearly like to consume energy at the rate that people in the US and Europe do (on average). Even if people poo-poo the idea that oil supplies are declining, or even have reached a peak, that doesn't explain how we are going to satisfy this increasing demand.

And if we in the US and Europe think renewable energy is expensive then it's unlikely that developing nations will be able to afford it.

[king mob]

Kingboy, pm me with a email addy that i can send something to you, trust me you'll be very interested in reading what i have.