Tip jar

If you like CaB and wish to support it, you can use PayPal or KoFi. Thank you, and I hope you continue to enjoy the site - Neil.

Buy Me a Coffee at ko-fi.com

Support CaB

Recent

Welcome to Cook'd and Bomb'd. Please login or sign up.

March 28, 2024, 08:04:49 PM

Login with username, password and session length

Irish General Election excitement

Started by actwithoutwords, May 24, 2007, 10:35:59 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

actwithoutwords

Right, I may as well give this a go. This is probably a bit niche, but there's a few natives around so hopefully this might generate a bit of interest. For non potato eaters, there's always here, or indeed, more succinctly, here.

Of the current government, the Progressive Democrats (right wing "liberal" cunts) look like they could be on the way to meltdown, finally; while the major partner Fianna Fail have looked shaky in recent weeks, largely due to the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern being mired in controversy over his personal finances, but have recovered significantly in the polls in the past 7 days. The main alternative coalition is Fine Gael (strange mix of conservative and social democratic), Labour and the Green Party. But there are all sorts of potential coalition mixes, with parties possibly willing to sacrifice priniciples all over the shop in order to get their mitts on some ministerial positions.

The UK really should adopt proportional representation, even if only because of the excitement. We get at least a full day (possibly more) of counting and results tomorrow, and then loads of political wrangling over who will form the coalition government. Though, admittedly this could well be the closest election we have had in a long time.

Anyway, thoughts, news, reaction and coalition speculation here.

quadraspazzed

Can't wait for tomorrow, RTE is giving it blanket coverage (even going so far as to move Eastenders onto 2!). Ahh the  life of the unemployed election junkie.

Obviously hoping for a good show (and two seats) for the Socialist Party, and that the left-indpendents will see their representation growing too. Though actually I'm a bit pessimistic about that, I think this will be an election in which parties gain rather than personalities. A little bird tells me that Richard Boyd-Barrett (SWP running as People Before Profit Alliance) thinks he's in with a chance. Can't see it meself, though best of luck to him obviously.

I can't say the prospect of either Enda Kenny or Bertie Ahern being Taoisech [PM, for forr-gen-ers] fills me with any joy - though I guess my visceral hatred for Ahern and that cunt McDowell are pushing me towards wanting to see Kenny in just for my own personal gratification at seeing the despair on the faces of Ahern/McDowell. Also, Harney not getting re-elected would make me smile. A lot.

My worthless prediction: A Labour/Fianna Fail coalition, finally proving to the total bankruptcy of Irish Labour today. Though I guess if that happens Pet Rabbitte will have to stand down as leader given that unequivicolly gave a 'no' to the question of coalition with FF.

For me the most interesting thing in this election will be to see how the left get on - or don't as (I fear) the case may be.

Edit - PS: The best leaflet of the election has to go to John O'Neill from the Irish Socialist Network for this effort (PDF warning). Too bad he won't be elected (he says while hoping he's proved wrong).

quadraspazzed

Stolen from the Anarchist's site, some of the best election poster abuse of the election:


The bauld Dick Roche.












actwithoutwords

I have been hearing a lot of FF-Labour talk over the last few days. Where has that come from? First time I heard it I couldn't believe it. After the disaster that was their coalition with FF in the nineties, what would be the point of going into power now and then get massacred even more in the next election? From a somewhat detatched viewpoint over here, Labour seem to have had a really shite campaign.

Much as I am no real fan of Labour, I'll be glad if they take the new seat in my constituency, which has always just been a boring carve up between FF and FG. It's a step in the right direction anyway. Terrible pity they couldn't muster a decent Green candidate, they could have done quite well.

quadraspazzed

Yes, it does seem like an odd one alright. But it also the bookies smallest odds - probably to with the fact that the only certain majority government is a FF-Lab one. And while I think Rabbitte will obviously favour a FG-Lab-Green coalition, if it's simply not an option then I suspect a deal will be done. Labour haven't been this close to power in years, I can't see them throwing it away if it is offered to them.

I voted Green as it goes, more to do with the absolute lack of anyone to their left in my constituency (not even the Shinners ran here, and the Indpendent is actually an ex-FGer). And even the Green is the brother of one of the sitting Fianna Fail TDs! Still, he has a quality beard and looks like I think Greens should look - a slightly aged hippy who looks like he could have been in Planxty at some point. As I was saying to Ciaran, my area is so rightwing that while FF lost seats in every area in the last Local Elections (2004), they actually gained seats here. And our current Dail sitters are two FF and 1 Labour. Which I guess is slightly better than having the third seat filled by a FG or PDer.

Actually, in some local election 'scandal', the PDwoman running here lives next door to my mate, and the other day he was out cutting his hedge and the PDwoman offers to lend him a better pair of clippers. It was the first time she'd spoken to him in about 10 years! And later on, this same PDwoman and Harney were kicked out of a shopping centre by security for (allegedly) canvassing. Ha!

Ciarán

I wouldn't be at all surprised with a FF-Labour coalition, but I think Labour'll have to get rid of Rabbitte for it to happen. They won't want any old ex-Democratic Left-er in charge anyway, and they'll stick an old proper centrist Labour type in charge.

In my constituency, luckily, there's a candidate for the Socialist Party so of course she got my vote (well I canvassed for her after all). Apparently she (Clare Daly) has a great chance of getting in this time after narrowly losing out last time around. Now my big hope is that Joe Higgins will get back in. But as a few people have said, I think he needs to calm down a bit in the Dáil, because he's becoming a bit of a court jester figure. It would really make everything else about the election ok for both those Socialists to get in in Dublin.

quadraspazzed

QuoteBoost for Ahern as Ireland's Labour leader hints at deal
· Taoiseach could retain power in new coalition
· Vote count expected to take several more days
The Guardian

Bertie Ahern's chances of holding on to power in Ireland improved yesterday when the Labour leader, Pat Rabbitte, hinted that he could switch sides and support the taoiseach's Fianna Fail party.

[...]

After voting in Dublin yesterday morning, Mr Rabbitte said he did not want to see Mr Ahern returned as taoiseach and dependent on the votes of Sinn Féin.

"I don't look forward to the prospect of Labour being asked ... to put Fianna Fail back in office," he said. It would not be "consistent" with Labour's stated aim of removing the two parties - Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats - in the outgoing coalition. But he added: "I don't want to see Sinn Féin driving economic policies or other policies ... The responsibility falls on more shoulders than mine."

Ciarán

What a little shit. U-turning, do-anything-to-grab-a-seat gobdaw. Told you so. Honestly, you'd think we'd have the sense at this stage to stick all these politican gits on a big boat and let them drift off into the atlantic.

But if it keeps Enda Kenny out, good luck to him. I really don't like Enda "I'll make the criminals pay for their crimes" Kenny.

quadraspazzed

I love the way he's using "keeping the Shinners out" as his feeble excuse!

Glebe


daisy11

I have two Irish friends (female, gorgeous, great accent, taken) and one friend's hubbie attended Queens Uni so I feel I'm qualified to contribute to this political discussion.  Every time I hear the name Bertie, I think of:


buttgammon

I've never even been to Ireland, but I love a good election!

I wish we had campaigning like that over here. Of course, Gordon Brown being depicted as a dominatrix wouldn't be a pretty site, but it would be more imaginative.

actwithoutwords

QuoteAn RTÉ exit poll suggests that Fianna Fáil will win almost exactly the same share of the vote as in 2002, but that Fine Gael will increase its vote by around 4%.

The poll, carried out by Lansdowne Market Research, shows decreases in support for Labour and the PDs, while the Greens and Sinn Féin will be disappointed not to have made a major breakthrough.

The process of counting of votes in the General Election has begun around the country with early tallies likely to indicate trends by mid-morning, and first results expected by mid-afternoon.

While the current coalition parties have a lead over the alternative, the final result is likely to be close and to be determined by transfers

Yesterday RTÉ asked 3,000 people at 166 polling stations in every constituency in the country how they voted.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have reacted cautiously to the results of the poll.

Fianna Fáil General Secretary Sean Dorgan said he would wait to see some real results later today, and that a lot of seats would come down to a handful of votes.

Fine Gael's Director of Elections Frank Flannery said the result was not a bad one and that polls tended to understate support for the party.

The poll has a margin of error of 2.5%, but after the last election, the RTÉ/Lansdowne Market Research exit poll proved to be extremely accurate.

It got the national first preference totals correct to within around one percentage point.

The experts have been crunching the numbers all night, and the results are as follows:

Fianna Fáil is on 41.6% - marginally above what it won in the last election.

Fine Gael is on 26.3%, almost 4% ahead of its 2002 result.

Potential coalition partner Labour has slipped 1% from the last time, down to 9.9%.

The PDs look to be in serious trouble, down to 2.6%, a 1 1/2% drop from 2002.

The Greens are up 1%, but will be disappointed to be at just 4.8%.

There appears to be no big breakthrough for Sinn Féin, also up just under 1% to 7.3%.

Independents and others are down nearly 3% at 7.5%.

Of course, the first preference vote does not give a cast-iron indication of how many seats will be won.

Fianna Fáil got a huge seat bonus in the last election and the shape of the next Government may still be determined by transfers.

Incredible really that Fianna Fáil's vote has held up like that. But it's clearly far from over. It all starts happening when we are down to the redistribution of votes from the 6th and 7th counts and stuff like that, which is where the election will be won.

Hank_Kingsley

My cousin was out campaigning for the Greens, he actually looks like the perfect Green party candidate. He rides a recumbent bicycle, has a massive white beard and used to play in a tudor folk rock band produced by Donal Lunny.
PR is a lot more fun.

rjd2

I voted Green simply because the Green MP in my area had a very impressive mandate and is a decent enough bloke juding by all reports. The idea of Sinn Fein/IRA in power frightens the hell out of me, one of the most odious sights of the election has being Adams all over the shop despite the fact that he does not even have a seat in these lands. Oh and him trying to claim he was on the same industrial wage as the resat of us? Please! Mc Dowell taking him to the cleaners on Prime Time was brillant.

actwithoutwords

Oh fuck. This is not looking good.

Fucking Fianna Fail are looking like taking 2 out of the 3 seats in my constituency. Unbelievably fucking depressing.

actwithoutwords

If Michael McDowell loses his seat to Gormley that would be pretty fucking sweet though.

Ciarán

I hear that McDowell is up the creek without a paddle. Best place for him. Send him back where he came from, that's what I say.

actwithoutwords

That's very close though I think. As someone else as just said, "I won't believe it until I see the stake plunged into his heart."

Joe Higgins is looking in trouble isn't he Ciarán? Not good.

Ciarán

Hmmmn...yeeees. Not good. But if there were going to be only 1 Socialist in there, I'd rather Clare Daly than Joe Higgins at the moment. Looks like all the smaller parties are in trouble.

actwithoutwords

Richard Boyd Barrett did quite well there quadraspazzed, in the top 5 on first preferences. Can't see him picking up too many transfers, but he's going to be pleased with that nonetheless I would think. Transfer-wise, do you think Clare Daly has a chance Ciarán?

Ciarán

I haven't a clue really. To be honest I'll be a bit surprised if she doesn't get in given the "word on the street" in my hometown.

quadraspazzed

God this is depressing as fuck.

I don't think either SPer will get in. This is a horrible election for the left in general. But my congrats to RBB on a great result, and I hope he gets in with transfers.

We've returned our usual of two FF and one Labour.

FUUUUUUUUUCK!

actwithoutwords

Joe Higgins definitely gone. Bollocks. Even for people who may not necessarily agree with him, I think most people will recognise that he's a big loss to the Dáil. Very disappointing.

Ciarán

There just isn't an emoticon in existence to convey my frustration at this point. Which sounds a bit like that Simpsons line...

"Within minutes I was on the internet registering my disgust..."

Well, yes.

quadraspazzed

#25
What Ciaran said. I really can't believe it - I keep thinking this is just an extension of my bad dream from last night.

At the risk of sounding all sour grapesy, there are 4 seat constituencies with smaller populations than Dublin West - which is...unfair.

The only thing I can take from this election so far is the apparent PD meltdown, and the gleeful possibilty of McDowell losing out (though the way this election is going I fear Gormely will lose out instead). And Jesus, a FF-IndFF majority? Christ, what is wrong with this country?

Edit: You have to love this - at the polling station in Wicklow where the Minister for Environment Dick(head) Roche is standing, they had to turn off the water for fears of e-coli contamination. !!!!

Ray777

Fucking pissed off about Higgins losing out. And as for the possibility of FF getting an overall majority,   I really despair of the sheer stupidity of Irish people sometimes.

In happier news, I've just read on Politics.ie that McDowell has definitely lost his seat. I just hope it's true...

quadraspazzed

Liz O'Donnell is out, as is Tom Parlon (well he's given up anyway). Harney somehow managed to get back in though - good god!

Edit: Re: McDowell, he's about 1000 behind Gormley at the minute, with a 3,500 odd votes to be divvied. Alas, they're from a FFer, so there's a chance he could just about scrape it.

quadraspazzed

Left Indpendent's losing out bigtime. Dr. Gerry Crowley is out in Mayo. And Seamus Healy looks very uncertain in Tipp South, as does Catherine Murphy in Kildare North. :(

Finian McGrath hanging by a thread in Dub North Central.

Ray777

Quote from: quadraspazzed on May 25, 2007, 07:47:58 PM
Edit: Re: McDowell, he's about 1000 behind Gormley at the minute, with a 3,500 odd votes to be divvied. Alas, they're from a FFer, so there's a chance he could just about scrape it.

P.ie can be a bit over-enthusiastic at times, but their 'insiders' seem to reckon that the FF transfers are being distributed fairly evenly between McDowell and Gormley. I just hope they're right, and we get our 'Portillo moment'.

Not looking forward to seeing McGrath being beaten by that smug cunt Callely.