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CaB League Placing Game 2008-09

Started by The Duck Man, August 06, 2008, 12:56:13 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

The Duck Man

Right, after much consideration, here's mine. Not all that happy with either of them really, for reasons I will go into but am too tired now.

So, yes, predict the Premier League/Championship or both. We'll then let this thread sink til May (so fear not football haters, it won't hang around up here for long), when it'll be revived. You can then see how wrong/right you were. Furthermore, I'll apply a points system to it - +1 point for every position away you are for each team and the person closest to 0 wins. Winners will be decided for each league, as well as another winner for those who predicted both.

Ta da:
1 Manchester United
2 Chelsea
3 Liverpool
4 Tottenham Hotspur
5 Arsenal
6 Manchester City
7 Aston Villa
8 West Ham United
9 Portsmouth
10 Everton
11 Newcastle United
12 Sunderland
13 Blackburn Rovers
14 Middlesbrough
15 Fulham
16 Wigan Athletic
17 West Bromwich Albion
18 Bolton Wanderers
19 Hull City
20 Stoke City

1 Birmingham City
2 Wolverhampton Wanderers
3 Derby County
4 Reading
5 Sheffield United
6 Ipswich Town
7 Queens Park Rangers
8 Crystal Palace
9 Bristol City
10 Coventry City
11 Swansea City
12 Burnley
13 Charlton Athletic
14 Cardiff City
15 Norwich City
16 Watford
17 Nottingham Forest
18 Preston North End
19 Plymouth Argyle
20 Doncaster Rovers
21 Blackpool
22 Barnsley
23 Sheffield Wednesday
24 Southampton

micanio

Here are my predictions. I've given The Championship a bash but it'll be mainly guesswork for that....

1 Chelsea
2 Manchester United
3 Liverpool
4 Arsenal
5 Tottenham Hotspur
6 Aston Villa
7 Portsmouth
8 Manchester City
9 Newcastle United
10 West Ham United
11 Everton
12 Fulham
13 Sunderland
14 Blackburn Rovers
15 Wigan Athletic
16 Middlesbrough
17 West Bromwich Albion
18 Bolton Wanderers
19 Hull City
20 Stoke City

1 Birmingham City
2 Wolverhampton Wanderers
3 Queens Park Rangers
4 Derby County
5 Reading
6 Crystal Palace
7 Sheffield United
8 Ipswich Town
9 Bristol City
10 Coventry City
11 Nottingham Forest
12 Watford
13 Charlton Athletic
14 Cardiff City
15 Norwich City
16 Burnley
17 Swansea City
18 Blackpool
19 Plymouth Argyle
20 Southampton
21 Preston North End
22 Barnsley
23 Sheffield Wednesday
24 Doncaster Rovers

I'll elaborate later....

Vitalstatistix

Premierleague

1. Manchester United
2. Chelsea
3. Arsenal
4. Liverpool
5. Spurs
6. Aston Villa
7. Portsmouth
8. Manchester City
9. Everton
10. Blackburn
11. Newcastle
12. Middlesbrough
13. Sunderland
14. West Ham
15. Fulham
16. West Brom
17. Wigan
18. Stoke
19. Bolton
20. Hull

1 Manchester United
2 Chelsea
3 Liverpool
4 Boston United
5 Arsenal
6 Manchester City
7 Aston Villa
8 West Ham United
9 Portsmouth
10 Everton
11 Newcastle United
12 Sunderland
13 Blackburn Rovers
14 Middlesbrough
15 Fulham
16 Wigan Athletic
17 Who actually reads
18 These lists?
19 Hull City
20 Tottenham

drberbatov

Premier

1. Chelsea
2. Liverpool
3. Manchester United
4. Arsenal
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Portsmouth
7. Manchester City
8. Everton
9. Middlesborough
10. Aston Villa
11. Wigan Athletic
12. Sunderland
13. Fulham
14. Newcastle United
15. Bolton Wanderers
16. West Ham United
17. West Bromwich Albion
18. Blackburn Rovers
19. Stoke City
20. Hull City



Championship

1. Birmingham City
2. Reading
3. Cardiff City
4. Queens Park Rangers
5. Burnley
6. Sheffield United
7. Derby County
8. Wolverhampton Wanderers
9. Swansea Ciy
10. Ipswich Town
11. Preston North End
12. Crystal Palace
13. Charton Athletic
14. Barnsley
15. Nottingham Forest
16. Bristol City
17. Norwich City
18. Watford
19 Coventry City
20. Blackpool
21. Sheffield Wednesday
22. Plymouth Argyle
23. Southampton
24. Doncaster Rovers

ozziechef

1. Arsenal
2. Manchester United
3. Chelsea
4. Liverpool
5. Portsmouth
6. Aston Villa
7. Newcastle
8. Spurs
9. Everton
10. Sunderland
11. Stoke
12. Blackburn
13. Fulham
14. Manchester City
15. Wigan
16. West Ham
17. West Brom
18. Hull
19. Middlesborough
20. Bolton

1. Reading
2. Derby County
3. Birmingham
4. Ipswich
5. Cardiff City
6. Charlton
7. Burnley
8. QPR
9. Wolves
10. Norwich
11. Southampton
12. Sheffield United
13. Nottingham Forest
14. Sheffield Wednesday
15. Cardiff City
16. Bristol City
17. Coventry
18. Crystal Palace
19. Watford
20. Plymouth Argyle
21. Swansea
22. Doncaster Rovers
23. Blackpool
24. Preston North End

Vitalstatistix

Quote from: The Boston Crab on August 06, 2008, 03:30:26 AM
1 Manchester United
2 Chelsea
3 Liverpool
4 Boston United
5 Arsenal
6 Manchester City
7 Aston Villa
8 West Ham United
9 Portsmouth
10 Everton
11 Newcastle United
12 Sunderland
13 Blackburn Rovers
14 Middlesbrough
15 Fulham
16 Wigan Athletic
17 Who actually reads
18 These lists?
19 Hull City
20 Tottenham

I do!

Meticulously!

The point is not to provide an entertaining read, but to look back on at the end of the season and see whose prediction was closest, but you know that Crabby

Actually it does look a bit dull, maybe we should spice it up with different colours and pictures of cheerleaders

Lord Mandrake

1. Man Utd
2. Liverpool
3. Spurs
4. Chelsea
5. Arsenal
6. Man City
7. Everton
8. Portsmouth
9. Newcastle
10. West Ham
11. Sunderland
12. Aston Villa
13. Middlesborough
14. Wigan
15. Blackburn
16. Fulham
17. Bolton
18. West Brom
19. Stoke
20. Hull

THIS IS TRUE.

Neville Chamberlain

League 1:

1 Brighton 
2 Bristol Rovers
3 Carlisle 
4 Cheltenham 
5 Colchester 
6 Crewe
7 Hartlepool
8 Hereford
9 Huddersfield
10 Leeds
11 Leicester
12 Leyton Orient
13 Millwall
14 Milton Keynes Dons
15 Northampton
16 Oldham
17 Peterborough
18 Scunthorpe
19 Southend
20 Stockport
21 Swindon
22 Tranmere
23 Walsall
24 Yeovil

niat

Quote from: Neville Chamberlain on August 06, 2008, 09:43:54 AM
League 1:

1 Brighton 
2 Bristol Rovers
3 Carlisle 
4 Cheltenham 
5 Colchester 
6 Crewe
7 Hartlepool
8 Hereford
9 Huddersfield
10 Leeds
11 Leicester
12 Leyton Orient
13 Millwall
14 Milton Keynes Dons
15 Northampton
16 Oldham
17 Peterborough
18 Scunthorpe
19 Southend
20 Stockport
21 Swindon
22 Tranmere
23 Walsall
24 Yeovil


What are the odds on that? I'd get a few quid on now, if I were you.

Rubbish Monkey

1 Manchester United
2 Chelsea
3 Liverpool
4 Tottenham Hotspur
5 Arsenal
6 Everton
7 Portsmouth
8 Aston Villa 
9 Manchester City
10 Newcastle United
11 Middlesbrough
12 West Ham United
13 Fulham 
14 Blackburn Rovers 
15 Sunderland
16 Bolton Wanderers
17 Wigan Athletic
18 West Bromwich Albion
19 Hull City
20 Stoke City

1 Sheffield United
2 Wolverhampton Wanderers
3 Crystal Palace
4 Birmingham City (P)
5 Nottingham Forest
6 Cardiff City
7 Queens Park Rangers
8 Reading
9 Ipswich Town
10 Charlton Athletic
11 Derby County
12 Coventry City
13 Norwich City
14 Doncaster Rovers
15 Barnsley
16 Watford
17 Sheffield Wednesday
18 Bristol City
19 Burnley
20 Preston North End
21 Swansea City
22 Blackpool
23 Southampton
24 Plymouth Argyle

wherearethespoons

League

1 Manchester show stoppers
2 Chester-u-field
3 Sponsored by crisps

The rest I simply can't guess at, it's too hard.

1. Manchester United
2. Chelsea
3. Arsenal
4. Liverpool
5. Everton
6. Portsmouth
7. Tottenham
8. Aston Villa
9. Man City
10. West Ham
11. Newcastle
12. Middlesborough
13. Blackburn
14. Sunderland
15. West Brom
16. Fulham
17. Bolton
18. Wigan
19. Hull
20. Stoke

Contoversial!

The Plaque Goblin

1 Liverpool
2 Everton
3 Manchester United
4 West Ham United
5 Newcastle United
6 Middlesbrough
7 Sunderland
8 Chelsea
9 Arsenal
10 Fulham
11 Tottenham Hotspur
12 West Bromwich Albion
13 Aston Villa
14 Manchester City
15 Stoke City
16 Hull City
17 Wigan Athletic
18 Blackburn Rovers
19 Bolton Wanderers
20 Portsmouth -lots of points deducted for being naughty.

1 Plymouth Argyle
2 Southampton
3 Blackpool
4 Wolverhampton Wanderers
5 Reading
6 Nottingham Forest
7 Ipswich Town
8 Norwich City
9 Bristol City
10 Swansea City
11 Cardiff City
12 Coventry City
13 Birmingham City
14 Sheffield United
15 Sheffield Wednesday
16 Burnley
17 Barnsley
18 Preston North End
19 Doncaster Rovers
20 Derby County
21 Crystal Palace
22 Watford
23 Charlton Athletic
24 Queens Park Rangers -lots of points deducted for being naughty.

rudi

1 Manchester United
2 Chelsea
3 Liverpool
4 Arsenal
5 Everton
6 Tottenham Hotspur
7 Portsmouth
8 Aston Villa
9 Blackburn Rovers
10 Manchester City
11 Newcastle United
12 Sunderland
14 Wigan Athletic
12 Middlesbrough
15 West Ham United
16 Fulham
17 West Bromwich Albion
18 Bolton Wanderers
19 Stoke City
20 Hull City

I'd say the difference between 6th and 15th will be fairly slight this year...

GoochDogHigh5s

Elitist clap trap

League one is where its at

Ginyard

1 Tottenham Hotspur
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

20 Arsenal



Just once....just for bloody once!.

Fuck it, I can dream.

terminallyrelaxed

Don't you chaps know Arsenal are going to win the Premier League? You know, because its "their turn".

hands cold, liver warm

1 Chelsea
2 Man Utd
3 Liverpool
4 Tottenham
5 Arsenal
6 Aston Villa
7 Everton
8 Portsmouth
9 Manchester City
10 West Ham
11 Newcastle United
12 Middlesbrough
13 Wigan
14 Sunderland
15 Fulham
16 Blackburn Rovers
17 West Bromwich Albion
18 Bolton Wanderers
19 Hull City
20 Stoke City

I'm working on the principle that arsenal will have loads of injuries and the loss of Flamini will be big. Wenger will resign at the end of the season. And like Rudi, I think the points difference between 18th and 10th will be tiny. My team Blackburn will probably get relegated next season, rather than this one, because the promoted teams this year are not very good.

Crabwalk

OK soccer fans, here's my shot in the dark:

Division Dull:

1 Man Utd
2 Chelsea
3 Arsenal
4 Liverpool
5 Aston Villa
6 Tottenham
7 Everton
8 West Ham
9 Manchester City
10 Newcastle United
11 Middlesbrough
12 Portsmouth
13 West Bromwich Albion
14 Sunderland
15 Stoke City
16 Fulham
17 Wigan
----------------------
18 Blackburn Rovers
19 Bolton Wanderers
20 Hull City


League Shite:

1 Birmingham City
2 Reading
----------------------
3 Ipswich Town
4 Sheffield United
5 Wolverhampton Wanderers
6 Crystal Palace
-----------------------
7 Charlton Athletic
8 Bristol City
9 Queens Park Rangers
10 Cardiff City
11 Watford
12 Southampton
13 Burnley
14 Swansea City
15 Plymouth Argyle
16 Nottingham Forest
17 Sheffield Wednesday
18 Derby County
19 Coventry City
20 Preston North End
21 Doncaster Rovers
--------------------------
22 Norwich City
23 Blackpool
24 Barnsley

Ipswich to win play-offs. Come on you Blues.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

I like The Plaque Goblin's league.

Back to boring reality (except Newcastle's which I have a wildly optimistic fan-bias placement):

1. Manchester United
2. Chelsea
3. Arsenal
4. Liverpool
5. Aston Villa
6. Everton
7. Newcastle United
8. Portsmouth
9. Everton
10. Sunderland
11. Manchester City
12. West Ham
13. Blackburn Rovers
14. Wigan Athletic
15. Middlesborough
16. West Bromwich Albion
17. Fulham
18. Bolton Wanderers
19. Hull City
20. Stoke City

The Duck Man

Impressive season for Everton, finishing both sixth and ninth.

A word of explanation on my choices, not that anyone really cares. Even though Chelsea came really rather close last season, the statistics always felt like a bit of a lie - United were top almost throughout, seemed untroubled, played nice. Chelsea were dull, arguing internally and dull. Invariably I can never see the title winner getting trumped, and both teams have had slightly troubled pre-seasons, United have retained their personnel, Chelsea have changed their's but don't seemed to have improved. Chelsea will win something, I think, and it'll be close, but I still give it to United.

Liverpool have got a new striker and full-backs, but still no fucking wingers so I can't see them challenging. Also: because they're Liverpool. I was astonised Arsenal did as well as they did last season, and with their reduced squad I can't seem them doing much. Spurs meanwhile seem to be going places under Ramos, and I can see them pipping Arsenal.

You can then broadly cut the division into "UEFA cup challengers" and "bottom half". Of the former, placing Villa, Everton, Man City and Portsmouth was a complete lottery really. All came on leaps and bounds last season. Everton and Villa have lightweight squads and a few holes in their line-ups - Villa in defence and on the right, Everton in central midfield and up front - but have excellent managers. Man City and Portsmouth have bolstered their attacks, and don't seem to have any major weaknesses. In the end, I decided that Everton would slip back a bit after a few seasons of peaking, as would Pompey. I picked Man City for sixth as Hughes is a good manager and I can see him progressing. Can't see West Ham challenging for Europe, being West Ham, but they should do better than last year with a fully fit squad. Put them above the slumping Everton and Portsmouth - not sure about that,  really.

Of the lesser squads, Blackburn are included because Ince is inexperienced. I've placed them below Sunderland, who seem to have thrown enough money around to progress up the table a bit. Newcastle's attack, provided it stays fit, will take them some way but with Keegan in charge and a defence that seems to have been unfixed I can't see them fitting into the UEFA challengers.

Whilst Southgate still looks like a kid playing manager than one with two years experience, I can't seem them in trouble. Fulham seem to have invested wisely enough to stay up, although  one could easily see Hodgson reverting to the bumbling fool everyone presumed he was. Wigan's squad is a load of arse, but Bruce is canny enough to keep them up, I think.

Of the relegation contenders, Stoke are clearly going down. Hull have done well to bring in the players they have but are still largely a squad that should have finished no higher than 12th in the Championship. West Brom, despite being acclaimed as the best side in the division last year, had a dreadful defence which, Carson aside, they don't seem to have done much about. Also without Phillips they look light up front. Still, just about see them pipping Bolton, because Megson's an idiot. Bolton had a very stingy defence last year, so that might help, but couldn't score for toffee - it remains to be seen whether Ellmander can replace Anelka. It'll be tight, I think.

Still, whilst you can reasonably guess where a Premiership team is going to finish within five places, the Championship really is anyone's guess. As I said, Hull had a nothing squad, and Bristol City scored fewer goals than most sides in the division. It was quite a weak league last year, with two of three sides who were relegated in 2005/06 going back up first time. With West Brom and Wolves being the only high quality sides in the division, the relegated sides should have walked it. Watford, despite having the weakest squad of the three, nearly did but then imploded. Charlton had culture shock, Sheffield United didn't know which Division they were buying for then appointed Bryan Robson of all people, whilst Wolves did bugger all for no apparent reason. Above that morass of shite, West Brom were crowned the total football champions of the Division, despite not being half as good as a lot of people made out.

So, pretty much anyone could finish in the top six. However, there does seem to be a set of clubs with significantly stronger squads than the rest. Some will crash and burn for unspecified reasons, but it's hard to see past them in the cold light of placement prediction. Reading, Derby  and Birmingham seem better prepared for this division then many teams relegated the past few years, having experienced the division recently and accrued more Premiership money. None have had to sell anyone particularly important. Birmingham in particular have an incredible forward line for the division, and a strong midfield and attack to boot. I trust Jewell to do a good job at this level, and even if he has re-assembeled his squad with players that seem no better than what he had, it remains enough to challenge. Plently of potential pitfalls though - continued malaise from their Premiership season, new squad not jelling etc. Reading too should have enough, but their squad isn't as impressive as the other two and the shock of last day relegation could hit them, along with a tired-looking manager.

Hard to see Sheffield United or Wolves fucking up again, although Blackwell's revival of the former last season was not as impressive as it looked considering the players they had at their disposal. Both have strengthed and should expect play-offs minimum. Personally, I fancy Wolves for automatic - they have a unified, hungry young side, with Ebanks-Blake for a whole season and an unijured Kightly and Jarvis they should be fairly formidable.

Ipswich have evidently got investment as well, and play decent football. Add the young/hungry tags and a strong home record and I'd say play-offs, even if their attack looks slightly flimsy. Campo should add the ball-winning quality they lacked away from home.

MEGA-BUCKS QPR have been tipped by plenty of people, but they've invested sensibly rather than spectacularly. I nearly placed them in the play-offs, but can't get past the feeling they'll not meet the expectations placed upon them, especially when the directors inevitably get tired of Dowie and chuck him out. They have the power to invest in January should things go wrong, but that's not been the directors style yet. Still, you sense a money splurge is only a matter of time.

As for the teams I placed between eight and eighteenth, that was a massive lottery. Most lack firepower up front, and possess squads of variable quality. Bristol City for instance, have a squad that really shouldn't finish higher than about twelth - I plumped for a bit higher as Johnson's a good manager, and you can't see them dropping that far back over the course of one season. Similarly, whilst Warnock's kids might find their second season a bit of a struggle and they have few strikers to speak of, you'd fancy him to have them easily in the top half.

You'd fancy Coleman to have Coventry doing better than their customary 17th, they signed some good young defenders in January and Morrison and Eastwood should get them the goals a lot of teams lack. Both, on the other hand, could easily flounce around doing fuck all. Can't see any promoted team doing as well as Bristol City last year, what with the stronger teams in the division, but Swansea have the upward momentum of a superb season last year and will probably finish top half. Placed Burnley 12th, Coyle seemed quite canny last year and they've invested sensibly.

Charlton, whilst retaining remanants of a Premiership squad, had to tighten their belts this summer and still seem a little lost in this division. Cardiff have some decent players, and always suggest they might push for the play-offs. Still, a disinterested Jay Bothroyd won't be enough I think to mount a challenge. Norwich have improved on what was a very average squad in general, but have in turn lost their two star players.

Placed Watford, perhaps generously, perhaps not, 16th. On paper, our defence and midfield is good enough for the higher echeloens of the division - although every centre half we have is prone to chronic lack of concentration. Our principle problem is we have the worst forward line in the division, after asset stripping that position. Get a loan striker in and we could possibly do better.

Forest do have the strikers that many teams lack, but Calderwood seemed to get them promoted more through luck than design last season, and I can easily see them disappointing again. Preston and Plymouth I've perhaps been harsh with, but when everyone's much of a muchness someone has to finish near the bottom. Sturrock did well to finish where he did with a team who have gradually sold most of their decent players, whilst Preston just don't have anyone particularly outstanding to drive them any higer than where I've placed them.

Doncaster and Blackpool have both invested wisely in players who will cope with a relegation battle. With their under-dog status and decent football I can see both staying up, although doing little more.

Barnsley, despite their cup-run, have a weak side and were fairly fortunate not to go down last year. Wednesday still have no money, and if they struggle again you can see last season's unimproved team imploding entirely. Meanwhile, I'd bet a fair amount of Saints going down - indifferent manager with no experience at this level, trouble at board level, barely any decent players, still bearing the ex-Premiership tag etc.

So yes, god knows how or why I wrote that much, but I quite enjoyed it.

Vitalstatistix

Good for you The Duck Man! :)


Spoiler alert
I'm not going to read it though :p
[close]

Shoulders?-Stomach!

My first draft featured Portsmouth 3 times so be bloody grateful!!

Sixth place should be Spurs, sorry.

GoochDogHigh5s

Bollocks to you lot who probably only got into football after watching Fever Pitch

Orient won
so fuck the lot of ya

The Duck Man

Championship results in:
Column 1 - me, 2 - micanio 3 drberbatov 4 - ozziechef 5 - Rubbish Monkey 6 The Plaque Goblin 7 Crabwalk

         1   2   3   4   5   6   7

1 Wolves      1   1    7    8    1    3    4
2 Birmingham      1    1    1    1    2    11    1
3 Sheffield United   2    4    3    9    2    11    1
4 Reading      0    1    2    3    4    1    2
5 Burnley      7   11    0    2    14    11    8
6 Preston      12    15    5    18    14    12    14
7 Cardiff      7    7    4    2    1    4    3
8 Swansea      3    9    1    13    13    2    6
9 Ipswich       3    1    1    5    0    2    6
10 Bristol City      1    1    6   6    8    1    2
11 QPR         4    8    7    3    4    13    2
12 Sheffield Wednesday   11    11    9    2    5    3    5
13 Watford       3    1    5    6    3    9    2
14 Doncaster      6    10    10    8    0    5    7
15 Palace      7    9    3    3    12    6    9
16 Blackpool      5    2    4    7    6    13    7
17 Coventry      7    7    2    0    5    5    2
18 Derby      15    14    11    16    7    2    0
19 Forest      2    8    4    6    14    13    3
20 Barnsley      2    2    6    5    5    3    4
21 Plymouth      2    2    1    1    3    20    6
22 Norwich      7    7    5    12    9    16    0
23 Southampton      1    3    0    12    0    21    11
24 Charlton       11    11    11    18    14    1    17

         120   147   108   166   146   188   122


1 - drberbatov 108 pts
2 - The Duck Man 120
3 - Crabwalk 122
4 - Rubbish Monkey 146
5 - micanio 147
6 - ozziechef 166 (You put Cardiff twice, mind, and no Barnsley. I presumed you'd swap Barnsley for the 15th place, rather than the 5th!)
7 - The Plaque Goblin 188

Some interesting stats could be done here. What the scores would look like if you removed their worst score, best score/worstr score, average difference for each person (in various forms), most accurate/inaccurate placed team, most optimistic/unoptimistic placed team (had I done the differences each way) and so on. I'd be intrigued, but I've spent far too much time calculating this as it is, and they'd be thrown off anyway by what I'd suggest be called "The Plaque Goblin effect".

EDIT: Fuck's sake, the looks fine in the text box. If anyone wants to fix it, go ahead.

The Duck Man

Hello there. After the enthusiastic response to my last results post, I dashed through these this evening.



Oh, and the overall placings for those who did both leagues:

drberbatov: 182
crabwalk: 189
The Duck Man: 192
Rubbish Monkey: 212
micanio: 213
ozziechef: 238
The Plaque Goblin: 294

Vitalstatistix


Crabwalk

Thanks for compiling that Duckman! Missed your Championship post before.

Why the hell did I think West Brom would finish midtable? Cost me the title damnit.

Reconvene in August?

The Duck Man

Aye, sure.

Was wondering whether to include a discard of your biggest score or not. Thoughts?