Tip jar

If you like CaB and wish to support it, you can use PayPal or KoFi. Thank you, and I hope you continue to enjoy the site - Neil.

Buy Me a Coffee at ko-fi.com

Support CaB

Recent

Welcome to Cook'd and Bomb'd. Please login or sign up.

March 28, 2024, 06:22:33 PM

Login with username, password and session length

The Next Generation of Consoles

Started by mobias, January 25, 2011, 09:37:07 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Zetetic

Quote from: mcbpete on February 01, 2011, 03:08:01 PM
I think it's getting there with each generation of game engine.
Except that the problem, barring the kind of flinging objects into each other à la Half-Life 2, has never been game engine-bound. It's a content problem, and that's only likely to be dissolved by man-hours.

mcbpete

Quote from: Zetetic on February 02, 2011, 09:10:01 AM
It's a content problem, and that's only likely to be dissolved by man-hours.
Content as in scale, detail or features. Or a combination of the three ?

Zetetic

Scale as in, if you want to make the urinals usable, that's probably not an engine concern, but simply that that someone needs to put the hours in recording the sound of someone pissing in a urinal.

Detail as in, if you're going to include pissing in a urinal, you don't want the quality and variety of urinal-pissing to be markedly different to other areas of the game. If your game is otherwise detailed and pretty (with an aim toward photorealism, say), you're probably then going to want to model an approximation to turbulent piss flow (which, granted, might be helped by middleware, but I'd still expect some research is required[nb]Which, presumbly if you work for Rockstar means a trip to NYC to see how New Yorkers piss in New York urinals[/nb]) but also record a variety of pissers in a variety of urinals.

Not sure what you mean by features in this context.

Mister Six

Yeah, exactly. The real limiting factor on game design will always be the number of man-hours required to develop the game. Even if you have a computer with the capability to display 3D visuals with 100 per cent verisimilitude you'll still have to create each nasal hair and eyelash on the character models. The next big leap will be a computer smart enough to generate this stuff on command. Which will basically mean that you've built a holodeck.

And that really will be The Next Generation of consoles.

VegaLA

Quote from: Mister Six on February 02, 2011, 11:24:40 AM
Which will basically mean that you've built a holodeck.

And that really will be The Next Generation of consoles.

Vivid and Private would stomp on MS and Sony like a hedgehog caught in a Nascar race.


mobias

Yeah Sony have let slip similar developments, well at least with next gen games in the making anyway. I still think we'll see next gen consoles sooner rather than later. Certainly before 2015.

Still Not George

Ultimately, it's a different market now. Market fragmentation of the kind we used to see is a thing of the past; multiplatform ports are the norm and exclusives the exception, entirely unlike previous generations. As a result, the early adopter advantage is extensively lessened in the short term but expanded in the long term; new consoles will enjoy few exclusives in the short to medium term and an increasing number over a time period. So the race to market is suddenly much less important and getting it right becomes the key. Sony can't afford another PS3 release PR debacle, and MS can't afford to cede the tech race to Sony again. So the next generation threatens to be an entirely different prospect.

Meanwhile, Nintendo will release some heap of underpowered gimmicky crap having swallowed its own publicity whole, and it will fail miserably.

Mister Six

That is a brilliant observation, SNG. Very interested in seeing how things develop.

Jemble Fred

Quote from: mobias on March 08, 2011, 07:19:27 PM
Yeah Sony have let slip similar developments, well at least with next gen games in the making anyway. I still think we'll see next gen consoles sooner rather than later. Certainly before 2015.

You say that as if 2015 is a long time in the future. Seeing as Microsoft have only just released Kinect, 2015 is a hell of a tight deadline for them to come up with anything worthy of being called a whole next generation. Even if they were all ready to roll with new hardware right now, you'd still probably be looking at a 2013 release date, just for the millions of different elements which need to come together for a console launch.

2015 is no time at all. But then I must admit that the last 3/4 years feel like about six months to me, so I'm clearly getting old.

Mister Six

All the GTA policemen look so young these days.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

QuoteSony can't afford another PS3 release PR debacle, and MS can't afford to cede the tech race to Sony again

Really?

Can't they both 'afford' quite a lot?

Shoulders?-Stomach!

To be a little more contributey, it saddens me to see hardware development grinding to a halt. It wouldn't be so hard to take if PC Gaming wasn't on its arse. It's been too long since I saw a game that looked visually interesting, and that's mainly because the consoles have been exploited and there's nothing new to get out of them. I used to love buying PC Format in the 90s and nearly every month some screenshot would look mouthwateringly THE FUTURE'S COMING SOON LADS. It feels a bit like the space program at the moment. We know lots of vitally important progress is being made, but it's all so uninspiring.


MojoJojo

Quote from: Jemble Fred on March 08, 2011, 11:49:27 PM
You say that as if 2015 is a long time in the future. Seeing as Microsoft have only just released Kinect, 2015 is a hell of a tight deadline for them to come up with anything worthy of being called a whole next generation. Even if they were all ready to roll with new hardware right now, you'd still probably be looking at a 2013 release date, just for the millions of different elements which need to come together for a console launch.

2015 is no time at all. But then I must admit that the last 3/4 years feel like about six months to me, so I'm clearly getting old.

According to wiki, the Xbox 360 was conceived in early 2003, and released Novemeber 2005, so 2015 is easily doable.

I guess the trigger for these moves is that the sales of all these consoles have slowed down. Kinect produced a signifcant uptick, but that's only going to be a short time boost.
Still don't know what they can do to justify upgrading though.

Actually - I'd like to see some slim versions of consoles. If I could get a PS3 that was nearly PS2 slim sized, that would be one of my main reasons for not getting one gone.

Jemble Fred

Quote from: MojoJojo on March 09, 2011, 09:28:39 AM
According to wiki, the Xbox 360 was conceived in early 2003, and released Novemeber 2005, so 2015 is easily doable.

Oh yes, it's definitely do-able, I just don't think it's the ridiculously distant far-off date that Mobias was suggesting. In modern gaming terms, 2015 is a perfectly reasonable conservative estimate for the next gen emergence. And, being an old sod, I just know that when the time arrives it will seem to have rushed at us at top speed. "2015 already?"

Still Not George

Quote from: Shoulders?-Stomach! on March 09, 2011, 12:31:37 AMCan't they both 'afford' quite a lot?
In terms of cash, yeah, but the amount of FUD in the console market atm is overwhelming. All of the platform manufacturers have shunted into reactionary mode rather than trying to press forward with any kind of specific vision. So my estimation is that each manufacturer will attempt to "fix" the errors they made last time, except Nintendo, who seem to think it's still 2008 and that their fad is still ongoing.

Quote from: Shoulders?-Stomach! on March 09, 2011, 12:41:40 AMTo be a little more contributey, it saddens me to see hardware development grinding to a halt. It wouldn't be so hard to take if PC Gaming wasn't on its arse. It's been too long since I saw a game that looked visually interesting, and that's mainly because the consoles have been exploited and there's nothing new to get out of them. I used to love buying PC Format in the 90s and nearly every month some screenshot would look mouthwateringly THE FUTURE'S COMING SOON LADS.
I dunno, I felt the UT3.5 video was flat-out amazing all on its own:

Debut Trailer HD - Samaritan

And that's running on three high-end consumer cards. Admittedly I mainly squee'd over the main "cyberpunk John Constantine" character, but still.

Mister Six

That is impressive, although how representative of next gen games it is I don't know. Presumably an actual next-gen game would have to devote some of its processing power to AI and hold loads of those polygons back in reserve in case the player decided to go stand on a rooftop and gaze into the distance or something. Also, once you've zoomed out to a playable distance and stuck a HUD on it, it'll end up looking much more like every other game around.

I think Shoulders' comment still stands, though: as cool as that tech demo is, it's still only an incremental improvement on where graphics are at today - not really a return to the days when there seemed to be a new leap forward in graphical complexity every five or six months. Yeah, all the volumetric lighting effects and realistic lens flare are really clever and that, but they're not a hundred million miles away from the videos of Crysis 2 or whatever that are out there now.

mobias

Quote from: Jemble Fred on March 09, 2011, 09:37:19 AM
Oh yes, it's definitely do-able, I just don't think it's the ridiculously distant far-off date that Mobias was suggesting.

The reasons I think 2015 is a far off date are firstly there's an increasing amount of evidence (I'll dig up some links when I get home tonight) that Sony in particular are going to release a console sooner rather than later. There's little snippets of info leaking out that seems to suggest both next gen software and hardware is very much in the pipeline.

I agree with you I don't think five years seems that far off IF you're old farts like you and I. I mean it just seems like yesterday that I somewhat idiotically parted with 470 quid for a shiny new PS3. But if you're a teenager or in your early 20's, a big demographic in gaming consumerism, 5 years is almost an eternity to wait. I think Sony and MS won't wait that long to get people to part with money again.

The Masked Unit

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5X6_tuY3Wk

That's the UE3 tech demo from 2005. Compare that with a recent UE3 game like Bulletstorm and it besomes easier to visualise how a game could look as good as the UE3.5 tech demo in a couple years time.

Bear in mind though that I have no working knowledge of graphics tech!

Also, the new BF3 video is fucking stunning, and that's running on current PC hardware http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm0i4kssMek&feature=related

Ignatius_S

Funnily enough, The Guardian had an article today about console rumours - http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/gamesblog/2011/mar/09/wii2-xbox720-console-rumours

Quote from: mobias on March 09, 2011, 01:15:17 PM
The reasons I think 2015 is a far off date are firstly there's an increasing amount of evidence (I'll dig up some links when I get home tonight) that Sony in particular are going to release a console sooner rather than later...
I'd be inclined to agree.

With the rumours about the next console, one thing that various sites have pointed out that roughly the same span has separated each generation of the Playstation.

This obviously although this doesn't mean history will repeat itself, but in the past, if what Sony had publicly said about future development had actually happened, we would have seen a much longer gap between consoles.

I'd be interested in knowing what enthusiasm there is for the PS4; I've seen a lot of people saying they're more than happy with their PS3, but how much this will change...

Jemble Fred

But then wasn't it Microsoft who first suggested 2015? I have a complete blindspot with Sony, I have to admit to neither knowing nor caring how they work or what their plans are. But I don't expect the next Xbox before 2015, and I think it would be a huge mistake if they tried to release anything sooner than that to try and match Sony. In fact, they know it's best to let the PS4 go first, and then they can learn from the inevitable huge mistakes...

mobias

Quote from: Jemble Fred on March 09, 2011, 02:10:43 PM
But then wasn't it Microsoft who first suggested 2015?

Both manufactures would dearly love for everyones sights to be firmly fixed on the current generation of consoles for as a long as possible. Sony have also stated they want a 10 year life cycle for the PS3 but they said about the PS2 and to be fair games are still made and enjoyed on the PS2 so its still very much alive. It's a bit of a deceptive comment for Sony to make. The PS3 will have a 10 year life cycle but that doesn't mean they'll not release a successor within that time frame.

Quote from: Jemble Fred on March 09, 2011, 02:10:43 PM
In fact, they know it's best to let the PS4 go first, and then they can learn from the inevitable huge mistakes...

Although historically that doesn't seem to have been the case. The PS2 was first out the door and massively won the last gen console war. The 360 was first out the door this time around and the PS3 has taken a long long time to catch up with it and as far as I'm aware still isn't anywhere near the 360 in sales. So going by that pattern it seems whoever gets there first seems to do the best.

VegaLA

Quote from: mobias on March 09, 2011, 02:50:25 PM

Although historically that doesn't seem to have been the case. The PS2 was first out the door and massively won the last gen console war. The 360 was first out the door this time around and the PS3 has taken a long long time to catch up with it and as far as I'm aware still isn't anywhere near the 360 in sales. So going by that pattern it seems whoever gets there first seems to do the best.

True, but after the faulty consoles that both Sony and MS released at first during the current cycle, I think people will be a bit more cautious with their hard earned cash. Especially if there are still Triple A titles being released.
I'd like to see both a Dead Rising 3 and Crackdown 3 on the shelves for this generation before I shop for my next Console.

Penfold

won't the console that wins[nb]gets seen being played in the most tv shows and mentioned in jokes by those stand up comedians[/nb] be the one that goes to sub £200 the quickest?

although that is kind of another way of saying the first one that comes out wins because they're normally the first to reduce costs.

Quote from: VegaLA on March 09, 2011, 04:39:33 PM
True, but after the faulty consoles that both Sony and MS released at first during the current cycle, I think people will be a bit more cautious with their hard earned cash. Especially if there are still Triple A titles being released.

also this because i lost my faith in consoles in this generation, my old xbox and ps2 work, i imagine, but i've had my original 60gb ps3 die on me, my 360 is about 2 years old now and it's fine although i think it was one of the last redesigns of the original model, i'm not sure why, i think i looked it up at the time and remember the word jasper.

The Masked Unit

http://download.udk.com/Samaritan_Realtime_Demo_Sm.mp4

1080P version of the Unreal tech demo. IMO, the closer you look, the less impressive it gets. The lighting is the best aspect along with the AA (surely it wouldn't be that good in-game), but I don't think the animation is really up to much in comparison, and the whole thing retains that UE3 trait of looking like everything's made of rubber. I'm more interested in the BF3 engine TBH.

Quote from: Penfold on March 09, 2011, 08:22:05 PM
but i've had my original 60gb ps3 die on me


I'm pretty sure you edited your post before I made it back with the image, otherwise my brain is creating opportunities for me to find weirdly awesome things.

Penfold

Quote from: The Region Legion on March 09, 2011, 08:42:42 PM


I'm pretty sure you edited your post before I made it back with the image, otherwise my brain is creating opportunities for me to find weirdly awesome things.

idon'tknowwhat'sgoingon.

ididn'teditnuffin.

mobias

Here's some interesting links regarding the PS4 and possible release date

http://www.techradar.com/news/gaming/consoles/playstation-4-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-ps4-464657

http://sonyps4.com/ps4-games-in-development/

Here one of Sony's top brass admits the console is in development but isn't going to see the late of day any time soon (although you could argue that he would say that wouldn't he)
http://www.planetinsane.com/dont-expect-the-playstation-4-anytime-soon/2611285/

Interesting and contradictory views http://www.shacknews.com/article/54254/epic-and-crytek-expect-xbox

An older article http://www.joystiq.com/2008/09/22/crytek-already-gushing-over-the-ps4/


VegaLA


falafel

Quote from: mobias on March 09, 2011, 02:50:25 PMThe 360 was first out the door this time around and the PS3 has taken a long long time to catch up with it and as far as I'm aware still isn't anywhere near the 360 in sales. So going by that pattern it seems whoever gets there first seems to do the best.

Our survey says...

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/33854/Analysts_PS3_Passes_Xbox_360_Worldwide_Nintendo_Successor_Within_A_Year.php

Which probably, more than anything else, just goes to show that most of our tech news comes from the US. The global picture is that even though the ps3 came out a year later and had a fairly mediocre couple of years, it has more than caught up.