They have been at a great feast of languages, and stol'n the scraps.

[BlodwynPig]

Another "great" article by the BBC technology team.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-15060310

For every EC2 and Hadoop reference, there is a gem like this:

Also in 2003, Paignton Zoo carried out a practical test by putting a keyboard connected to a PC into the cage of six crested macaques. After a month the monkeys had produced five pages of the letter "S" and had broken the keyboard.

or

Monkeys: more interested in throwing faeces than writing sonnets

[GaspardW]

After the equivalent of billions and billions and billions of monkey years the simulated apes had only produced part of a line from Henry IV, Part 2.

[Big Jack McBastard]

His calculations suggest it would take far, far longer than the age of the Universe for monkeys to completely randomly produce a flawless copy of the 3,695,990 or so characters in the works.

"Along the way there would be untold numbers of attempts with one character wrong; even more with two wrong, and so on." he said. "Almost all other books, being shorter, would appear (countless times) before Shakespeare did."

Is that not even less probable than the initial premise?

Monkeys knocking out multiple (never mind 'untold') copies of Shakespeare's works which were fine bar one wrong character in each? Surely that's less likely than them putting out one flawless copy.

[BlodwynPig]

I have just had a damn good go on my pocket calculator and the probability is....infinity - 1

[jutl]

Is that not even less probable than the initial premise?

Monkeys knocking out multiple (never mind 'untold') copies of Shakespeare's works which were fine bar one wrong character in each? Surely that's less likely than them putting out one flawless copy.

If you think of each guess as a number - an approximately four million figure number in base 26 - then there is only one right answer but a huge quantity of numbers that vary from that answer by one figure. So the 'off-by-one' pool is vast compared to the single correct answer, and will tend to get hit by random guesses very frequently before the right answer finally emerges.

[Big Jack McBastard]

I require an infinity of monkeys to test the veracity of this.

[MojoJojo]

an approximately four million figure number in base 26 - then there is only one right answer but a huge quantity of numbers that vary from that answer by one figure.

144 million variations by one letter (assuming your 4million characters in Shakespeare figure is correct).

Of course, this is assuming there is a single text that is the "works of shakespear". When you count all the different versions, that must decrease the time by about a thousand or so.

[Famous Mortimer]

Is that not even less probable than the initial premise?

Monkeys knocking out multiple (never mind 'untold') copies of Shakespeare's works which were fine bar one wrong character in each? Surely that's less likely than them putting out one flawless copy.

True, but it's like an experiment to show how cool infinity is. The least likely event you can possibly imagine will happen an infinite number of times if you have an infinite amount of time to go at it. There's a really cool documentary with Steven Berkoff called (I think) "To Infinity and Beyond" which has all sorts of information about this in it.

[BlodwynPig]

Even considering infinite permutations, there is always a chance that something occurs zero times.

[Famous Mortimer]

Even considering infinite permutations, there is always a chance that something occurs zero times.

If the event is outside the physical laws of the Universe, I suppose. I love having my mind blown by weird maths stuff, have you got that idea from a paper or a book or something?

[small_world]

Even considering infinite permutations, there is always a chance that something occurs zero times.

Ouch. Really?
That's a thinker. I'm tempted to say, surely if it's infinite at some point it has to happen, but then...
Ah fuck off man. I was enjoying a relaxing day until that.

Anyone suggest a good intro to infinity book?
(as just a sideline, are there any good slightly above the basics, on maths books? I find it really interesting, but could do with a dumbed down kind of thing)

[I accept the terms of the]

If the event is outside the physical laws of the Universe, I suppose.

No, it's simply possible that the monkeys would never press a key that isn't S, no matter how long they're there. Similarly, pi doesn't necessarily (it MIGHT, but also MIGHT NOT) contain every possible finite sequence even though it goes on forever. It could just as easily repeat this pattern 42442244422244442222... forever at some point. There's nothing about being infinite and non-repeating that means it is also normal.

I love having my mind blown by weird maths stuff, have you got that idea from a paper or a book or something?

It's just a case of needing proof before jumping to conclusions. Just because something has the properties of something that could contain every possibility or sequence doesn't mean that it will. Even a six-sided die could be rolled forever without hitting the number 4. Pretty unlikely though.

[SetToStun]

Ouch. Really?
That's a thinker. I'm tempted to say, surely if it's infinite at some point it has to happen, but then...
Ah fuck off man. I was enjoying a relaxing day until that.

Depends on how you think of the universe: in an exclusive universe anything which cannot happen (FTL travel, for instance) is banned, and anything else may happen, given enough chances; in an inclusive universe anything which cannot happen is banned, and anything else must happen, given enough chances.

If there are an infinite number of ways of not achieving the desired result (and there are in this case), an exclusive universe says that given infinite chances you might end up with the complete works, but no guarantees; while an inclusive universe says you absolutely will. I have no idea where we stand WRT the nature of the universe, though, so I just go with "it might happen" and leave it at that.

Anyone suggest a good intro to infinity book?
(as just a sideline, are there any good slightly above the basics, on maths books? I find it really interesting, but could do with a dumbed down kind of thing)

Achilles in the Quantum Universe: Definitive History of Infinity is pretty good, as I recall. Very well written, quite amusing in places but utterly mind-fucking in others. I think you'll probably enjoy it.

[BlodwynPig]

If the event is outside the physical laws of the Universe, I suppose. I love having my mind blown by weird maths stuff, have you got that idea from a paper or a book or something?

If you constrain a problem with finite bounds, then an event is certain to happen when those limits are obeyed and when infinite events are observed. Anything event occurring outside of those bounds/conditions are not certain to happen.

[EFB]

If you think of each guess as a number - an approximately four million figure number in base 26 - then there is only one right answer but a huge quantity of numbers that vary from that answer by one figure. So the 'off-by-one' pool is vast compared to the single correct answer, and will tend to get hit by random guesses very frequently before the right answer finally emerges.

Base 26 would mean they would all be uppercase or lowercase with no spaces or punctuation. We'd want spaces and punctuation, wouldn't we?

[jutl]

Base 26 would mean they would all be uppercase or lowercase with no spaces or punctuation. We'd want spaces and punctuation, wouldn't we?

Depends how long you're willing to wait, I suppose.

[Famous Mortimer]

Depends on how you think of the universe: in an exclusive universe anything which cannot happen (FTL travel, for instance) is banned, and anything else may happen, given enough chances; in an inclusive universe anything which cannot happen is banned, and anything else must happen, given enough chances.

If there are an infinite number of ways of not achieving the desired result (and there are in this case), an exclusive universe says that given infinite chances you might end up with the complete works, but no guarantees; while an inclusive universe says you absolutely will. I have no idea where we stand WRT the nature of the universe, though, so I just go with "it might happen" and leave it at that.

Achilles in the Quantum Universe: Definitive History of Infinity is pretty good, as I recall. Very well written, quite amusing in places but utterly mind-fucking in others. I think you'll probably enjoy it.

I like the cut of your jib, sir.

[REVEEN!]

After the equivalent of three monkey years the simulated apes had produced enough material for four new series of 'Two Pints'. A BBC spokesman described the experiment as 'epic win'.

[Zero Gravitas]

Anyone suggest a good intro to infinity book?

On this particular theme: http://jubal.westnet.com/hyperdiscordia/library_of_babel.html