Tennis 2013

[selectivememory]

So, new year, new thread, the Australian Open on the horizon.

Murray still looking in decent shape, winning yesterday in Brisbane. Seeded 3 for the Aussie open, which means he'll likely have to take down Djokovic and Federer to win this one[nb]So long as Federer doesn't crash out against a del Potro or a Berdych or one of those guys in the QF[/nb]. Nadal still struggling with illness and injury is sitting this one out unfortunately, and I think outside of the big three maybe del Potro and Berdych are most worth keeping an eye on; also I guess Raonic needs his breakthrough tournament pretty soon, will surely be this year; he gets a decent draw he could make the semis here. Also, weirdly enough, if Djokovic is unsuccesful in defending his title here, he won't be the current holder of any Slam. That's weird isn't it? Would have been unthinkable this time last year, and it still is a bit to me now, so Djokovic is my bet for the title. He's been looking very good post-US Open Final defeat, and he's still clearly the best player in the world.

2012 will be hard to beat, was an incredible year for the sport, especially given Murray's performances following his Wimbledon final loss. Only see it being surpassed if someone wins all four on the trot (Djokovic, obviously), or if Murray actually wins Wimbledon.

[Nobody Soup]

hmmm, if murray's drawn in djokovic's half I wouldn't be too sure he'll meet federer in the final given he has tended to go out to lower seeds in recent years.

this year could well surpass last year for me if I get lucky, actually for once got off my arse and went through the hassle of getting an application for the wimbledon tickets ballot. cannot wait until feb to see if I got anything (I'll probably get womens quarter final day. woo)

[The Duck Man]

Bad omens for Murray: no  male first-time Slam winner in the Open era has ever added a second Slam of their career in the next Slam event.

[BlodwynPig]

Bad omens for Murray: no  male first-time Slam winner in the Open era has ever added a second Slam of their career in the next Slam event.

That means fuck all.

[alcoholic messiah]

Also, how many of those men that broke their Slam cherry had the advantage of already reaching two finals of the subsequent tournament[nb]And if, like this chap, you don't consider an Olympic gold to be inferior to a Slam title, then Murray has already defied the apparent jinx.[/nb]?

Given that his first win was generally considered to be long overdue, it won't exactly be a surprise if his successful run refuses to be arrested.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

That means fuck all.

Although there's a fair amount of history and icons involved to back that up.

Things go in Murrays favour all the same. Nadal is out, Federer is ageing and less of a threat, though not to be taken lightly, the also-rans can't achieve consistency and choke in 5 setters. He has beaten Djokovic in a slam on a hard court in 5 tsets, which is one of the biggest tests this decade of tennis is likely to present.

It'll be interesting to see whether it will be a one-off performance or the beginning of him collecting a number of slam titles.

[biggytitbo]

I think a semi-final spot is a minimum, although I'm less confident about that now due to the poor last part of the season he had after winning the US. There's still a slight suspicion that he was pushed over the line at the US Open because of the momentum of the olympics, and obviously that isnt going to happen again. But than niggle aside you really can see multiple grand slams on the horizon, shared between him and Djokovic for perhaps the next 2 seasons or so.

Even if he bombs you'd still fancy him at Wimbledon or the US.

So I'm saying this year - 1 slam Murray, 2 Djokvic, 1 Nadal or AN Other.

[alcoholic messiah]

A form guide for the "big 4" in the last 12 Slams[nb]From the 2010 Australian Open to the 2012 US Open.[/nb]:

Player	Titles	Finals	Semi-Finals
Nadal[nb]From 11 tournaments, due to missing the 2012 US Open.[/nb]	5	8	8
Djokovic	4	7	10
Federer	2	3	8
Murray	1	4	9

So I'm saying this year - 1 slam Murray, 2 Djokvic, 1 Nadal or AN Other.

That looks about right, but I'll phrase it slightly differently: Murray will win at least as many Slams this year as Nadal and Federer combined, but no more than Djokovic.

[selectivememory]

Djokovic to pick up three of the four at a minimum. The French is his for the taking if Nadal isn't back and at his best. I think Murray might be good for Wimbledon or maybe the US though. Federer is probably finished as a Major winner now.

[Nobody Soup]

I can't pick the slam winners this year apart from they will be from nadal, murray and djokovic. had predictions all figured out then I strated second guessing myself.

wouldn't write nadal off at RG or wimbledon, once he's got some clay form under his belt he could well storm wimbledon, not as physically demanding as clay and he's been untuochable on grass in the past. Djoko should realistically be aiming to win all 4, but there was a lot about 2012 that suggested 2011 was the exception rather than the rule. he won the australian open by the hair on his chinny chin chin having won in 5 tight sets against two players that later showed they didn't have any sort of mental block against in at slams, he probably should have won the french but he was pretty lack lustre at wimby and the US, fed gubbed him in one of the worst level intensity top 4 pair ups in ages and ferrer might have put him in a lot more trouble without the break at the US and ferrer never beats the top 4 anyway. Murray let the opportunity to push on and dominate 2012 slip with a meek finish to the year but I guess in all but the french he's up there, just whether the slam proves to be a monkey off his back or something that actually decreases his drive and focus.

don't see fed winning one now, i think if he gets to the final any of those 3 will regard that as a boon and there's not much outside those 4 to worry about.

[selectivememory]

Murray's in Federer's half of the draw, which I think is going to suit him; you don't want to spend however many hours taking down Djokovic and then have to take down Federer the next day, much better the reverse. Maybe Del Potro in the quarters; that match would have some potential, Del Potro has been looking pretty good since the Olympics. Federer might have to go through both Tsonga and Raonic, which at the very least is going to beat the shit out of him while he progresses, so it's looking good for Murray making the final.

On the other side, a Ferrer-Djokovic semi-final looks an inevitability.

Djokovic'll win this tournament though, I think he's got the most to prove out of the top three.

[rjd2]

Someone typed this up on another forum highlighting the possible permutations for the supposed big four.  Novak's draw should be ok, Berdych is dangerous but he normally beats him, a match up with Ferrer is always a war, but its a match that Novak always win, everything Ferrer does so well, Novak does better. No other landmines really, Verdasco, Melzer have seen better days. Querry could be tricky but Novak would have to play very badly to lose to him over five sets. Murray won't be to displeased with the draw, Del Potro will be tough but little else to fear, Dolgopolov could be dangerous but he is so erratic these days and seems to have regressed.  Ferrer's draw is tricky, he will be expected to win all all those games, but Nishikori has really improved and he did beat him in the Olympics while Tipsarevic and Baghdatis in Australia especially is never easy.

For once however the smuggest man in tennis gets an absolute nightmare draw, Paire is mediocre and should be trashed, but after that, its horrible, he really is going to have to roll back the years to just get to the semi final! If he wins this despite Nadal been out, it will be his greatest triumph, just a nasty nasty draw.

Novak Djokovic [1]

First Round - Paul-Henri Mathieu [WR 58]
Second Round - Santiago Giraldo [WR 63]
Third Round - Radek Stepanek [31]
Fourth Round - Stanislas Wawrinka [15]
Quarter-Final - Tomas Berdych [5]
Semi-Final - David Ferrer [4]
Final - Roger Federer [2]

Potential spoilers: Third Round - Viktor Troicki [WR 38]; Fourth Round - Sam Querrey [20]; Quarter-Final - Fernando Verdasco [22], Jurgen Melzer [24], David Goffin [WR 50], Xavier Malisse [WR 62]


Roger Federer [2]

First Round - Benoit Paire [WR 43]
Second Round - Nikolay Davydenko [WR 40]
Third Round - Martin Klizan [27]
Fourth Round - Milos Raonic [13]
Quarter-Final - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga [7]
Semi-Final - Andy Murray [3]
Final - Novak Djokovic [1]

Potential spoilers: Third Round - Bernard Tomic [WR 64], Fourth Round - Philipp Kohlschreiber [17], Quarter-Final - Richard Gasquet [9], Tommy Haas [19], Thomaz Bellucci [29]


Andy Murray [3]

First Round - Robin Haase [WR 54]
Second Round - Joao Sousa [WR 100]
Third Round - Florian Mayer [25]
Fourth Round - Gilles Simon [14]
Quarter-Final - Juan Martin Del Potro [6]
Semi-Final - Roger Federer [2]
Final - Novak Djokovic [1]

Potential spoilers: Fourth Round - Alexandr Dolgopolov [18], Yen-Hsun Lu [WR 60], Gael Monfils [WR 99], Quarter-Final - Marin Cilic [12], Jeremy Chardy [WR 37], Guillermo Garcia-Lopez [WR 81]


David Ferrer [4]

First Round - Olivier Rochus [WR 89]
Second Round - Ivo Karlovic [WR 103]
Third Round - Marcos Baghdatis [28]
Fourth Round - Kei Nishikori [16]
Quarter-Final - Janko Tipsarevic [8]
Semi-Final - Novak Djokovic [1]
Final - Roger Federer [2]


[/quote

[biggytitbo]

Yeah the only blip on Murrays passage to the semi is Del Potro, but then unless Potty is in 2009 US Open mood he's no threat to Murray, who has a far superior H2H with him. Federer's always a problem in the semis, even a his age, but I think its reasonably likely Fed won't even make it to the semis so its not a massive worry.

[Nobody Soup]

unless some of the players in murrays draw have turned a corner (del potro being the most likely) then he should be ok, stick that draw in 2010 and it's a nightmare, now I can barely understand how simon has a top 50 ranking, cilic looks bored of playing tennis and dolgopolov seems crushed by his own disappointment that he's still a bit crap.

berdych would have been horror for anyone else but djokovic should see him off. he finished last year well winning the davis cup with czech rep. he's the new tsonga/soderling, big hitting, dangerous QF player that can fire and really punish even the best of them. I reckon he might have to face tipsarevic in the semi's though.

fed would love it if haas takes out raonic for him, he enjoys nothing more than facing all the old patsies that remember him from mid 2000s.

[Nobody Soup]

robson is beginning to deliver on the hype, I rate these big results in a players early career a lot higher than I rate consistent progress as an indication of success, and they're becoming more frequent. certainly one of the most promising young womens players on the tour and there's a lot to like about her game when she's playing well too. she seemed like she was stagnating for a while but the public became aware of her so early it was understandable.

plus it's nice taking an interest in her as the first week is routine stuff murray. del potro has looked a bit worryingly good but I don't see any problems until them, he'll clobber berankis and monfils/simon on hardcourt.

[BlodwynPig]

robson is beginning to deliver on the hype, I rate these big results in a players early career a lot higher than I rate consistent progress as an indication of success, and they're becoming more frequent. certainly one of the most promising young womens players on the tour and there's a lot to like about her game when she's playing well too. she seemed like she was stagnating for a while but the public became aware of her so early it was understandable.

plus it's nice taking an interest in her as the first week is routine stuff murray. del potro has looked a bit worryingly good but I don't see any problems until them, he'll clobber berankis and monfils/simon on hardcourt.

plucky underdog transforms to clinical British hero. Sound familiar?

[rjd2]

Robson should not get to excited, Kvitova lost the game by playing truly abysmal tennis, anyone with any sort of talent would have won. Its depressing to think how far Kvitova has slipped, only 12 months ago, she was beating Azarenka regularly and nearly won tennis, now she is losing to Laura Robson,ffs.

Maybe once away from the heat of Australia she may get her arse into gear, but even before tonight their has been some worrying performances and complete vanishing acts in matches like today.


On Robson, Stephens beat her comfortably a few weeks ago, you'd expect her to repeat the performance again.

[biggytitbo]

Mark Steel wants to adopt her, the dirty bugger.


I'd like to see her get to the 4th round and quarter finals regularly, then break the top 20. Only then will we know she's the real deal. Immensely promising though.

[buntyman]

Azarenka's getting a run for her money here. Best women's match I've seen for a while so far.

[Mr_Simnock]

I currently have the outlandish sum of £1.50 on a three way bet.

Svetlana Kuznetsova (to win) - Carla Suarez Navarro - (allready won this bit)
Laura Robson (to win) - Sloane Stephens
Raonic (to win) - Kohlschreiber

I'll get a whopping £7.63 for the win. Its a bit risky but I am always hopeful. I've already won a double bet and just missed out on a four way bet (damn you Tommy Haas).

[Mildly Diverting]

Laura Robson (to win) - Sloane Stephens

Now she tells you she had an injured shoulder...

Professional sportspeople are not the punter's friend.

[BlodwynPig]

Now she tells you she had an injured shoulder...

Professional sportspeople are not the punter's friend.

The old Murray excuse - plucky brit never loses because they played worse, always an injury or misfortune. our heroes maintain their elevated status.

[rjd2]

To be fair, injury or not, Stephens did beat her easily the other week and is arguably one of the most talented young lasses about, so it's no surprise that she won in two today. Anyways anyone would have beat Kvitova the other night, she was complete shit.
What is a shock, is Del Potro losing to Chardy, Murray will be pleased as he was in his quarter and to make his day even better Simon his next opponent has just won in a gruelling five setter against Monfils. Simon's recent record against Murray is dismal as well.

Federer was clinical today against Tomic, Raonic next, bookies have given the Canadian no chance, which is silly, Raonic has lost all his previous encounters against Federer but he has taken him really close each time, this may be his big breakthrough match.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

I had a feeling there were quite a few short players on the tour at the moment, but as could've fairly been predicted, they're only short by virtue of how tall some of the fuckers are right now.

Goffin - 5ft 11
Ferrer- 5ft 9
Tipsarevic - 5ft 10
Nishikori - 5ft 9

Not that short at all, only a bit shorter than me in fact. They just have to compete against giants like:

Berdych 6ft 5
Del Potro 6ft 6
Isner  6ft 9
Raonic 6ft 5
Cilic 6ft 6

Hence the impression of midgetry.

[biggytitbo]

Murray's pretty tall himself, 6ft 3. The big guys are taking over.

[rjd2]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/mens


Biggy or anyone reckon we will get any shocks in last 16 of the men? I'd be with all the favorites if pushed but their is some sharks lurking, Anderson and Nishikori have improved immensely over the last 12 months, Anderson's movement especially is fantastic for someone so tall. Raonic is been given no chance against Federer which is silly, this is not Fed at his peak and Milos run him very close last year a few times and is also coming of the back of a very impressive win over the talented Kohlschriber.

[rjd2]

For anyone looking for some fun sport to watch, you could do worse than Nishikori v Ferrer, Ferrer is probably going to win, but its a really fun and high quality so far.

[rjd2]

Erm, not so fun now, Nishi's knee doesn't look canny, and been outclassed by a clinical Ferrer.

[selectivememory]

Wawrinka kicking the crap out of Djokovic at the moment.  An upset a real possibility.

Ah maybe not. I forgot it was Djokovic for a second.

[Mr_Simnock]

Ah maybe not. I forgot it was Djokovic for a second.

He is still pushing him more than he has before. quick stat from the BBC sports page, at 3-4 in the fourth set (to Wawrinka) both players had won 113 points each but Wawrinka has won 19 games to Novacks 17, he could win more games and points but still lose the match. I'm sure Murray is enjoying watching it.