Football 2013/14

[alcoholic messiah]

With the previous season's thread already looking ahead to 2013/14, it's time for a new one.

Some predictions:

Oh look, he's actually back [Mourinho]. Three way title race next year then?

Should be an interesting season, but if Mourinho can sort out Chelsea's consistency, it's all theirs.

Will win the league next year but will last three years maximum.

I'm talking about Mourinho obviously, not Mark Hughes.

Going to throw my top four in already even though it will probably end up being wrong:

1. Man City
2. Chelsea
3. Manchester United
4. Spurs

Arsenal fifth, Liverpool sixth, Everton seventh ...

I had a bet on Chelsea winning next season at 6 recently,. i quite fancy them. they're down to 3.5 best price now which i think is more like it. hard to call next season which makes it very interesting!

I would be surprised if Chelsea aren't in the running, but the eventual winners usually come from an exclusive group.

Each of the 21 champions in the Premier League era finished the previous season either as champions (7 times), runners-up (10 times), or in 3rd place (4 times). The four sides that went from 3rd to 1st were either level on points with the runners-up[nb]Arsenal in 1998, and City in 2012.[/nb], or had achieved a top two finish the season before that[nb]United in 2003, and Chelsea in 2010.[/nb], and none of them trailed the incumbent champs by more than nine points.

Only two sides have become champions after finishing at least 10 points back the previous season[nb]Arsenal in 2002 (10 points), and Chelsea in 2005 (11 points).[/nb].

With finishes of 3rd and 6th, 14 and 25 points back respectively, their recent form would appear to exclude Chelsea from the list of prospective champions, and they'll probably have to wait until 2015 at the earliest to regain the title.

The weight of history strongly suggests that the 2014 champions will be Manchester-based. If so, an outlay of £100 at typical current odds[nb]£52.31 on United @ 21/10, £47.69 on City @ 12/5.[/nb] would net you a return of more than £160.

In the last seven seasons, Man United's combined arrears to 1st place is only one point, so any post-Ferguson decline may also take some time to kick in.

[Deanjam]

My shitty predictions:

1. Man City
2. Man U
3. Chelsea
4. Everton Arsenal

Biggest movers up: Aston Villa
Biggest movers down: West Brom  (although I'm panicking re Everton)

FA Cup: Chelsea
League Cup: Spurs

Relegated: Crystal Palace / Hull / Norwich

[Utter Shit]

This assumption that Chelsea are suddenly going to be amazing again ignores the reality of their midfield being pretty dreadful and them having major problems at the back. They should improve on this season for sure, but the idea seems to be that because Mata, Oscar and Hazard are all great individual players (and even then there was barely a moment in the entire season when all three were playing well at the same time), the rest of the team can be carried to glory. I'm sure Mourinho will sort them out after the last couple of years of (two-European-title-winning) mediocrity, but I don't see them winning the league. Handily this is only the second post in the entire thread, so in a year's time it'll be easy to find and mock me with when Chelsea have won everything in sight.

[daveoblivian]

Well, there are a couple of big factors - there should be a large improvement in manager over Di Matteo and an unpopular Benitez and Torres is likely not to be their main striker any more. Torres has been dreadful (yes, he's scored some goals but put a cinder block up front in that Chelsea team and it'll score some - he should have loads more.

United weren't a wonderful side last year considering their points total. There is still every reason to believe they can win it of course but the new manager is unlikely to help. It depends on summer signings - get a central midfielder!

And City look likely to be back in the mix too. That United side didn't deserve to run away with it, it's definitely a better shot at a proper title race than usual.

[tothenakedrawedge]

I don't see how you can describe Chelsea's midfield as dreadful, I think it's probably the strongest in the league. Apart from the Hazard/Mata/Oscar trio, you'll have Ramires (possibly the best box to box midfielder in the league?) Lampard (still a good player), presumably Schurrle, Mikel, Moses (who's a decent squad player). The only potential useless/shit players in that midfield are Romeu (who the jury's still out on?) and Marin, and one/both might be gone anyway. Plus Luiz can do a job in there.

[checkoutgirl]

Next season the football will be good. I expect the Chelsea to have some good footballing guys on the field. No Scoles, no goals. Alec Ferguson will have words with Sir Bobby, results will be ok but pick up during the third quarter. The transfers will happen in the window, the transfer window that is. Manchester have a good shot this year as always. A crucial transition year for the Evertonians in Liverpool. Will they come 8th or 7th ? There really is no way of being sure but smart money would say 8th as they will lose afrohead man. I fully expect Allardyce to chew some chewing gum next season. This is his strength. Norwich ? No. Sky TV ? Go on then. Bale ? Goodbye.

[Viero_Berlotti]

Navas to Man City:

It's a good project and it was the moment to make the step.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/22757172

Why does every new player that joins Man City insist on calling it a 'project'.

"Jah! Man City is the best project in world football today for sure!!"

[Subtle Mocking]

He's good, but he's no Scott Sinclair.

[Eis Nein]

What do you reckon for his replacement then?

Opta Joe informs us Liverpool would have finished 7th without Suarez goals. We'll busk it to 7th with 10 men, wearing money hats.


I've long thought adding Requiem For A Dream to anything makes it preposterous, but this is still tattyfilarious on mute:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkLJQu-fHw8

[Utter Shit]

I don't see how you can describe Chelsea's midfield as dreadful, I think it's probably the strongest in the league. Apart from the Hazard/Mata/Oscar trio, you'll have Ramires (possibly the best box to box midfielder in the league?) Lampard (still a good player), presumably Schurrle, Mikel, Moses (who's a decent squad player). The only potential useless/shit players in that midfield are Romeu (who the jury's still out on?) and Marin, and one/both might be gone anyway. Plus Luiz can do a job in there.

Mikel is comically inept and still plays regularly. Ramires is a great player but he has to do the work of three men with Lampard about as mobile now as Tom Huddlestone. Romeu's a decent player, not sure why you think he is the weak link - he was looking really good until he got injured.

[Utter Shit]

Navas to Man City:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/22757172

Why does every new player that joins Man City insist on calling it a 'project'.

"Jah! Man City is the best project in world football today for sure!!"

Because they can't honestly call them a great club the way they could with the top clubs that have got to the top organically and have a rich history of success. That's not a dig at City btw, their fans deserve the success they're currently getting after the last couple of decades, even if it's of dubious value.

[George Oscar Bluth II]

I fucking hate the word "project" when attached to football. It's a game you bellends, not a new office building.

[BlodwynPig]

It's a playground for the rich and insouciant.

[Squink]

Yeah, "project" is about right given the current State of Things.

[Blinder Data]

They call it a project because, as has already been stated, they're a new force in football and things can only get better. They've spent billions on players, backroom staff and everything else to become a world-renowned successful football club, unrecognisable from the City of ten years ago. I don't think it's an unreasonable word to use considering the franchise they're working on in New York and the fuck-off property development they've got planned for Eastlands.

I fancy Chelsea next season. I read an interesting piece on how Pellegrini's age may work against him:

http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-235652/

Pellegrini turns 60 in September. In the past 20 years, in Europe's top four leagues, only five managers that age or older were appointed to clubs in nations where they had never played or coached before. None lasted more than a season.

The stats are against him! He's fucked!

[SJJames]

I don't think football will be the winner this year.

[weekender]

Arsenal's teamwork and form towards the latter half of the season leads me to believe that we shouldn't write them off - I'd pencil them in for a top 4 spot (with Man U, Man C and Chelsea), especially if Bale goes to Madrid and effectively ruins Tottingham.

I think Everton could be one to watch for a relegation battle, I think they'll be floundering without Moyes, especially if they go for Martinez.

[phantom_power]

Aren't Arsenal the masters of playing well when the pressure is off though? Once they had no chance in the league they relaxed and started playing nice football. It's like when they valiantly come back from 4-0 down in the second leg of a European tie to lose 4-3, but with pride restored

[Edley]

Aren't Arsenal the masters of playing well when the pressure is off though? Once they had no chance in the league they relaxed and started playing nice football.

They were never under pressure to win the league because no one thought they could. They were, however, under pressure to maintain their Champions League status (which is all weekender is predicting for them) and finish above their local rivals, both of which are points of pride for the club and looked unlikely in March.

[anonymous_lurker]

This assumption that Chelsea are suddenly going to be amazing again ignores the reality of their midfield being pretty dreadful and them having major problems at the back. They should improve on this season for sure, but the idea seems to be that because Mata, Oscar and Hazard are all great individual players (and even then there was barely a moment in the entire season when all three were playing well at the same time), the rest of the team can be carried to glory. I'm sure Mourinho will sort them out after the last couple of years of (two-European-title-winning) mediocrity, but I don't see them winning the league. Handily this is only the second post in the entire thread, so in a year's time it'll be easy to find and mock me with when Chelsea have won everything in sight.

I expect Chelsea will absolutely piss the league, or at least have a two-way with Pellegrini's Man City. The problem of Chelsea's midfield is a bit overstated given Man U cruised to the league with a woeful midfield + Carrick. Mata, Oscar and Hazard are all great individualists but it's worth remembering it was the debut season in England for two of them and half of it whilst managed by an overly-conservative manager who tended to drop one of them in favour of a more defensively minded Ramires or Moses. They'll be a much more fluid unit this year I expect.

Their main midfield problem comes from trying to appease Franky Lampsy. No way is he worthy of a place over the Mata, Oscar, Hazard triumvirate, so previous managers try fit him into a holding midfielder role like Man U did with Scholes. The only problem with that is Lampard's limited skillset and his 'score-at-all-costs' mentality makes them susceptible to been torn apart on the counter-attack (see the Atletico Madrid game). All they need is a decent holding midfielder to partner Ramires or even Mikel. Luiz was a nice experiment but tabloids seem to think Mourinho will want shut of him for whatever reasons.

Chelsea's problem is slow, positionally inept centre backs and no world class striker. Expect Mourinho to resolve these two issues and for them to steamroll the rest of the league.

I heard that sales of Kleenex had a 150% increase in the past week, what with the journalists all stocking up on supplies now their favourite 'character' is back in English football. Mourinho: loathed by the Italian press. Loathed by the Spanish press. Revered by the English.

Plenty of people are tipping Arsenal to mount a real challenge, assuming the top 3 teams will all be in periods of transition. It'll help that they probably won't have their best players poached this year like usual. But I can't see it. As phantom_power said, they don't handle pressure well. Wenger should really look into that.

My predictions: Mourinho makes another ill-advised eye jab, this time at Big Duncan Ferguson, promoted as first-team coach by Roberto Martinez, and spends the new year in ICU. Ian Holloway will be the first manager sacked after been caught defecating in his own team's dressing room as a motivational aid. Mark Hughes will spend £20m on Santa Cruz. Again. Joey Barton, after completing his UEFA coaching badges, will take over as player-manager of a struggling Liverpool team lacking bite after Suarez's departure to the wrong Madrid.

[tothenakedrawedge]

Arsenal also had a very favourable run-in, which helped their end of season form.

I don't see Everton going from 6th to 17th just because of the loss of Moyes, their squad is considerably better than most of the bottom half and whilst it's true they have been punching above their weight, their consistency in reaching the top ten has been reflected in the signings they've made and the squad they've been able to assemble as a result of their success.

[Roy*Mallard]

Well there we have it, Martinez is officially Everton manager. I'm not 100% sure about this, but he is the manager so he'll get my support (until it all starts going wrong). Nah, i think he'll do ok, as long as Kenwright gives him a few quid to spend.....ah shit, we're screwed!

[Unoriginal]

Martinez thinks he will get Everton into the Champions League. Good luck with that.

[Roy*Mallard]

Well, you never know. Attack-wise, Wigan were not too bad, it was the defence that cost them. Everton have a decent defence, if we can hold on to them, so with added attacking ability, who knows? Nice dream, but i guess we'll wait and see.

[Deanjam]

A lot depends on who will stay this summer. The Fellaini to United rumour seems to have all but gone, but the Baines to United rumour continues.

Either way, the only way Martinez will get money to spend is if United cough up 25 million for one of them.

[Unoriginal]

I think Martinez will do a decent job, but I see Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs going into next season with stronger squads so Everton are going to have to improve again if they are going to finish in the top 4.

[checkoutgirl]

Martinez thinks he will get Everton into the Champions League. Good luck with that.

No he doesn't, but at the same time, it won't do to show up as the new manager of a top 8 club and say "I think we can avoid relegation for the next few years". All the fans would be thinking "S'not very ambitious is it? Martinez out, Martinez out".

"I think we'll be aiming for the Champions League places this year" is often a great thing for managers to say because nobody expects it really with Everton but if by some miracle it does happen he can just say that that was his plan all along. If it doesn't happen, noone will give two shits, especially with the budget they're on. I think it's what snooker folks call a 'shot to nothing'.

[SJJames]

It's depth Everton needs isn't it? They're bound to lose one or two of Baines, Jagielka, Fallaini, Howard, Mirallas, Coleman and Jelavic and they need to replace that quality with quality. Martinez will almost certainly go back to Wigan for a few players and I wouldn't be surprised to see him sniffing around Scott Sinclair.

[Deanjam]

Sadly there's no hope for top 4 without any decent investment. This year has been our best first eleven for years and we've largely avoided serious injuries, yet it's not enough. We need a new and wealthier owner more than anything else.

[Unoriginal]

No he doesn't, but at the same time, it won't do to show up as the new manager of a top 8 club and say "I think we can avoid relegation for the next few years". All the fans would be thinking "S'not very ambitious is it? Martinez out, Martinez out".

"I think we'll be aiming for the Champions League places this year" is often a great thing for managers to say because nobody expects it really with Everton but if by some miracle it does happen he can just say that that was his plan all along. If it doesn't happen, noone will give two shits, especially with the budget they're on. I think it's what snooker folks call a 'shot to nothing'.

Ok, maybe he doesn't think it but he did say it.

"I'll get you in the Champions League"

Maybe he does believe it. He does seem like a confident bloke.