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Oscars 2016

Started by Bad Ambassador, January 24, 2017, 09:39:48 AM

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Bad Ambassador

Nominations announced this lunchtime. My predictions, with asterisks to denote expected winners:

Best Picture
"Arrival"
"Deadpool"
"Fences"
"Hell or High Water"
"Hidden Figures"
"La La Land"*
"Manchester by the Sea"
"Moonlight"

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, "Manchester by the Sea"*
Andrew Garfield, "Hacksaw Ridge"
Ryan Gosling, "La La Land"
Viggo Mortensen, "Captain Fantastic"
Denzel Washington, "Fences"

Best Actress
Amy Adams, "Arrival"
Isabelle Huppert, "Elle"
Natalie Portman, "Jackie"*
Emma Stone, "La La Land"
Meryl Streep, "Florence Foster Jenkins"

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, "Moonlight"*
Jeff Bridges, "Hell or High Water"
Hugh Grant, "Florence Foster Jenkins"
Dev Patel, "Lion"
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, "Nocturnal Animals"

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, "Fences"*
Naomie Harris, "Moonlight"
Nicole Kidman, "Lion"
Octavia Spencer, "Hidden Figures"
Michelle Williams, "Manchester by the Sea"

Best Director
Damian Chazelle, "La La Land"*
Barry Jenkins, "Moonlight"
Kenneth Lonergan, "Manchester by the Sea"
David Mackenzie, "Hell or High Water"
Denis Villeneuve, "Arrival"

Bad Ambassador

And here's Variety's predictions. Let's see if I'm better than them! (I am, but proof may be useful to win arguments)

Best Picture
"Arrival" (Paramount Pictures)
"Fences" (Paramount Pictures)
"Hacksaw Ridge" (Lionsgate)
"Hidden Figures" (20th Century Fox)
"Hell or High Water" (CBS Films)
"La La Land" (Lionsgate)
"Lion" (The Weinstein Co.)
"Manchester by the Sea" (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
"Moonlight" (A24)

Best Director
Denis Villeneuve ("Arrival")
David Mackenzie ("Hell or High Water")
Damien Chazelle ("La La Land")
Kenneth Lonergan ("Manchester by the Sea")
Barry Jenkins ("Moonlight")

Best Actor
Casey Affleck ("Manchester by the Sea")
Andrew Garfield ("Hacksaw Ridge")
Ryan Gosling ("La La Land")
Viggo Mortensen ("Captain Fantastic")
Denzel Washington ("Fences")

Best Actress
Amy Adams ("Arrival")
Annette Bening ("20th Century Women")
Natalie Portman ("Jackie")
Emma Stone ("La La Land")
Meryl Streep ("Florence Foster Jenkins")

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali ("Moonlight")
Jeff Bridges ("Hell or High Water")
Kevin Costner ("Hidden Figures")
Hugh Grant ("Florence Foster Jenkins")
Dev Patel ("Lion")

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis ("Fences")
Naomie Harris ("Moonlight")
Nicole Kidman ("Lion")
Octavia Spencer ("Hidden Figures")
Michelle Williams ("Manchester by the Sea")

Wet Blanket

Agree with your predictions but don't think Natalie Portman deserves the inevitable gong for Jackie. Those kind of performances always impress the Academy but they make me cringe. There should be a new category for 'Best Impersonation'.


Portman isn't really likely to win though. Emma Stone is seen as the current frontrunner and if even the starfuckers that are the Golden Globes went for Huppert over Portman then it dents her chances. Portman's best chances of a boost are a Bafta or SAG win, but if the season shakes out the way it's looking then it's Stone all the way.

Deadpool is an interesting prediction. I'd love it to get in because it will annoy so many people if it does. But I think the guild nominations so far could be deceptive. It got in with the WGA, but in a category weakened by the films that weren't eligible and the fact that some of the films that will be in adapted screenplay at the Oscars were in original with the WGA. The DGA nom was for best first film rather than best film. The PGA nomination is its biggest strength because it was nominated in a full field of contenders. But the PGA often have a blockbuster oddity in its line-up. They've nominated Skyfall, Star Trek, even the first Harry Potter. But they didn't cross over. The producers get drawn towards films that make money, for obvious reasons.

But it's a weird year. On the one hand it feels like every category is locked apart from maybe the fifth slot. On the other hand it also, strangely, feels likes other than the big three - Moonlight, La La Land and Manchester, nothing is locked. This is either going to be a very boring and obvious day or there could be a few major shocks. But my predictions are generally the same as the OP. I wouldn't be too shocked if something like Captain Fantastic slipped into best picture though. I thought it was a pretty bad film, but it has that feel of something that could surprise.

BlodwynPig

I'm amazed that each year there are only about 5 or 6 films made.

Wet Blanket

The Lobster has apparently got a Best Screenplay nod. Up there with Trump and Brexit as unexpected developments. Particularly as I thought it came out in 2015

Bad Ambassador

Released much later in the US.

Mini

Allied, Passengers and Suicide Squad all nominated. Not in big categories, but yeesh... Just in case anyone was still under the false impression that these things have any indication of quality.

Bad Ambassador

Here's the full bunch. I was reasonably close.

Best Picture
"Arrival"
"Fences"
"Hacksaw Ridge"
"Hell or High Water"
"Hidden Figures"
"La La Land"
"Lion"
"Manchester by the Sea"
"Moonlight"

Best Director
Damian Chazelle, "La La Land"
Mel Gibson, "Hacksaw Ridge"
Barry Jenkins, "Moonlight"
Kenneth Lonergan, "Manchester by the Sea"
Denis Villeneuve, "Arrival"

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, "Manchester by the Sea"
Andrew Garfield, "Hacksaw Ridge"
Ryan Gosling, "La La Land"
Viggo Mortensen, "Captain Fantastic"
Denzel Washington, "Fences"

Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert, "Elle"
Ruth Negga, "Loving"
Natalie Portman, "Jackie"
Emma Stone, "La La Land"
Meryl Streep, "Florence Foster Jenkins"

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, "Moonlight"
Jeff Bridges, "Hell or High Water"
Lucas Hedges, "Manchester by the Sea"
Dev Patel, "Lion"
Michael Shannon, "Nocturnal Animals"

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, "Fences"
Naomie Harris, "Moonlight"
Nicole Kidman, "Lion"
Octavia Spencer, "Hidden Figures"
Michelle Williams, "Manchester by the Sea"

Best Original Screenplay
Taylor Sheridan, "Hell or High Water"
Damian Chazelle, "La La Land"
Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou, "The Lobster"
Kenneth Lonergan, "Manchester by the Sea"
Mike Mills, "20th  Century Women"

Best Adapted Screenplay
Eric Heisserer,"Arrival"
August Wilson, "Fences"
Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder, "Hidden Figures"
Luke Davies, "Lion"
Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney, "Moonlight"

Best Original Score
Mica Levi, "Jackie"
Justin Hurwitz, "La La Land"
Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka, "Lion"
Nicholas Britell, "Moonlight"
Thomas Newman, "Passengers"

Best Original Song
"The Empty Chair" ("Jim: The James Foley Story")
"Audition" ("La La Land")
"City of Stars" ("La La Land")
"How Far I'll Go" ("Moana")
"Can't Stop the Feeling" ("Trolls")

Best Editing
"Arrival"
"Hacksaw Ridge"
"Hell or High Water"
"La La Land"
"Moonlight"

Best Cinematography
"Arrival"
"La La Land"
"Lion"
"Moonlight"
"Silence"

Best Make Up & Hair
"A Man Called Ove"
"Star Trek Beyond"
"Suicide Squad"

Best Sound Mixing
"Arrival"
"Hacksaw Ridge"
"La La Land"
"Rogue One: A Star Wars Story"
"13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi"

Best Visual Effects
"Deepwater Horizon"
"Doctor Strange"
"The Jungle Book"
"Kubo and the Two Strings"
"Rogue One: A Star Wars Story"

Best Costume Design
"Allied"
"Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them"
"Florence Foster Jenkins"
"Jackie"
"La La Land"

Best Sound Editing
"Arrival"
"Deepwater Horizon"
"Hacksaw Ridge"
"La La Land"
"Sully"

Best Production Design
"Arrival"
"Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them"
"Hail, Caesar!"
"La La Land"
"Passengers"

Best Foreign Language Film
"Land of Mine"
"A Man Called Ove"
"The Salesman"
"Tanna"
"Toni Erdmann"

Best Animated Feature
"Kubo and the Two Strings"
"Moana"
"My Life as a Zucchini"
"The Red Turtle"
"Zootopia"

Best Live-Action Short Film
"Ennemis Interieurs"
"La Femme et le TGV"
"Silent Nights"
"Sing"
"Timecode"

Best Animated Short Film
"Blind Vaysha"
"Borrowed Time"
"Pear Cider and Cigarettes"
"Pearl"
"Piper"

Best Documentary Short
"Extremist"
"4.1 Miles"
"Joe's Violin"
"Watani My Homeland"
"The White Helmets"

Best Documentary Feature
"Fire at Sea"
"I Am Not Your Negro"
"Life Animated"
"OJ: Made in America"
"13th"

In all fairness, the three named by Mini only got four nominations between them - Passengers for music and production design, Suicide Squad for hair/make-up and Allied for costume design. Don't forget Norbit was nominated for make-up. Just because a terrible film got one thing right does not mean the Academy agrees with its quality.

I'm more annoyed by Amy Adams, Hugh Grant and the music from Arrival being shut out.

Blinder Data

Not much for Silence. I didn't love it but I thought it would be nominated for a few big ones. It deserved noms for editing and sound mixing at least!

Is Mel Gibson's reputation fully restored then?

Mini

Quote from: Bad Ambassador on January 24, 2017, 02:16:40 PM
In all fairness, the three named by Mini only got four nominations between them - Passengers for music and production design, Suicide Squad for hair/make-up and Allied for costume design. Don't forget Norbit was nominated for make-up. Just because a terrible film got one thing right does not mean the Academy agrees with its quality.

True, but if they think those films represent the best of those categories then they should probably watch better films.

I'm rooting for Huppert to win in the hope that it'll encourage more people to check out her vast career of top-notch work. Otherwise, couldn't give a fuck.

Junglist

Moonlight for Best Picture, please. It'll be La La Land, but still.

Bad Ambassador

I got the exact same number right as Variety! I should do this for a living.

Who wants to know who'll win the Grand National?

Billy

Can see both Amy Adams and Jake Gyllenhaal 'doing a Leo' one day and winning their eventual (& long-deserved) Oscars for the wrong films. Adams in a Christa McAuliffe biopic and Gyllenhaal as the first man in American history to take a shit.

hewantstolurkatad

Quote from: Junglist on January 24, 2017, 03:54:28 PM
Moonlight for Best Picture, please. It'll be La La Land, but still.
Yep, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight will split that section of the vote so La La Land will undoubtedly run away with it

Jenkins has a solid chance for director. Like, it's the year after a pretty high profile attack on the awards being white-centric and they've got themselves an African-American director who probably legitimately deserves the award (unlike last year where the push was for Creed and Straight Outta Compton iirc).


Huppert surely hasn't a chance with the Oscars. The golden globes is a small group of people who all would at least have some awareness of the biggest non-English speaking stars. The oscars has far too many people voting to collectively gather around her.

Quote from: hewantstolurkatad on January 24, 2017, 07:34:05 PM
Huppert surely hasn't a chance with the Oscars. The golden globes is a small group of people who all would at least have some awareness of the biggest non-English speaking stars. The oscars has far too many people voting to collectively gather around her.
Yeah, there's pretty much no way she's getting it. She'll join other legendary actors like Anouk Aimée, Liv Ullmann, Isabelle Adjani, Marcello Mastroianni, Max von Sydow, Gérard Depardieu, Catherine Deneuve and Emmanuelle Riva who've all recieved noms but obviously just aren't as good at acting as Cher!

Quote from: hewantstolurkatad on January 24, 2017, 07:34:05 PM
Yep, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight will split that section of the vote so La La Land will undoubtedly run away with it


That kind of split in votes is largely impossible these last few years. Since they expanded to up to 10 nominees in best picture they also changed the way voting for the best picture winner works. Instead of just voting for one film the voters rank every nominee, meaning number two and three places will also count. So they work the same as nominations, they count the number one votes first, if any one film gets over 50% of first place votes then it's the winner. If no film wins in the first round of counting the film out of the nominees with the lowest amount of first place votes gets eliminated and those votes are redistributed to the second place film on those ballots, and so on until a film hits 50%. So a film can't sneak through as a result of a split, it has to be really loved. And it's at the point where anything other than La La Land taking picture and director is largely unthinkable. The film is only the third ever to get 14 nominations, it's beloved by the voters across all voting branches. The SAG and DGA etc could change things when they announce their winners. They're voted for by Oscar voters so there's usually a large crossover. But at the moment anything other than La La Land - Chezelle - Affleck - Stone - Ali - Davis would be a huge shock.

Bad Ambassador


Icehaven

Is it 2016 again? Fuxake the forst one was bad enough.

Noodle Lizard

I think this is the first year where I really haven't had a single film or person to root for in any category.  Plus, if the Golden Globes were anything to go by, it'll be one of the most tedious, backslapping ceremonies in Hollywood history - and that's up against some very stiff competition!

phantom_power

I want La La Land to win everything it is nominated for, except, perhaps, for Best Screenplay, which was the weakest part of the film

I'm surprised by 'Hacksaw Ridge' getting a few nominations. The film is like a blur of Forrest Gump, Men of Honor and The Thin Red Line. The story would've made a cracking mini-series, but seemed almost too big to condense into a film. The supporting cast are really ropey and the dialogue contains many war film clichés.