[Israel, Palestine] Election

[mayer]

BBC Story

Jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti will not run in the Palestinian presidential election, an official says.
Instead, Mr Barghouti has lent his support to Mahmoud Abbas - candidate of the ruling Fatah party.

The jailed firebrand was said to be considering challenging Mr Abbas in January's presidency elections.

But Palestinian cabinet minister Kadura Fares said Mr Barghouti pulled out to avoid a split in Fatah.

Mr Barghouti "is calling upon the sons of the movement and his supporters to support the movement's nominee Mahmoud Abbas," Mr Fares said Friday after visiting Mr Barghouti earlier in his Israeli prison cell....

I for one am slightly surprised by this. Barghouti is probably the most popular of the Next Generation, and I think would cakewalk the election, five life sentences or otherwise.

His backing Abbas is especially surprising.

My totally unfounded predictions? Abbas will now win the election relatively comfortably. Israel and the Palestinians will start negoitations. Part of an agreement regarding the crackdown on IJ/Hamas will be the release of Palestinian prisoners. This will probably stall till the next Israeli election (which will be early, as they always are - probably just before withdrawal from Gaza).

Barghouti's release will be part of a deal by a (Labour) government, and he will become the new Chairman soon after his release.

[mayer]

*cough*


for a board of people obsessed with conflict in the Middle East, i'm amazed at the lack of replies to this....


hang on, i've got an idea....

[slim]

*cough*


for a board of people obsessed with conflict in the Middle East, i'm amazed at the lack of replies to this.....

I found it informative, but didn't feel well informed enough to comment. Thanks though, it's interesting reading. I was also a bit hesitant just to post "thanks", y'know Save the Bandwidth campaign and all that.

[mayer]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4049819.stm

Al-Aqsa backs Abbas candidacy  

The group will closely monitor Mr Abbas' performance

The Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, has received another boost in his campaign to replace Yasser Arafat.

The militant al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades - the armed wing of the Fatah movement - has announced that it will back his candidacy for the January poll.

Mr Abbas is a moderate and there have been questions as to whether he might be opposed by Fatah's militants, says the BBC's Alan Johnston in Gaza.

But they seem to have been persuaded by jailed Fatah leader, Marwan Barghouti. ..

I'll wear a mask for you
If you want a partner
Take my hand
Or if you want to strike me down in anger
Here I stand
I'm your man

[Almost Yearly]

I back Abbas candidacy too. I'm right behind any supergroup's bowel infestations.

for a board of people obsessed with conflict in the Middle East....

You're wearing that special diver's helmet lined with mirrors again aren't you.

< Goes back to sandwich, all self-satisfied. >

[mayer]

Or maybe not.

Barghouti entered for president  

Barghouti is a popular figure on the Palestinian street
Jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti has been entered for next January's presidential elections.
His wife filed official papers on Wednesday, only hours before the deadline for registration expired.

The decision throws the election wide open. It had looked as if interim Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas would win easily.

Last week Mr Barghouti issued a statement denying he would run, and backing Mr Abbas.

"I received a call from [Mr Barghouti's wife] Fadwa after she visited Marwan, asking me to pay the registration fee before the banks closed for the day," the jailed man's brother Muqbal told the AFP news agency.

Nominations have to be in by midnight local time (2200 GMT).

Polls have shown that Mr Barghouti, 45, has wide popular support among Palestinians.


But while Israel has said it would deal with Mr Abbas, ministers say they will not work with Mr Barghouti, who is serving five life terms for his role in the killing of four Israelis and a Greek monk.

Mr Barghouti has denied being involved.

Abbas has a popularity rating of about 2%. I reckon even I could top that in any country in the world, or even on VWs.



Oh, and in other news.

Israeli PM loses key budget vote  

Ariel Sharon has to try to form a new coalition
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon faces a political crisis after parliament voted against his budget, meaning his government could fall.
The secular Shinui party, the largest coalition partner in government, voted against the budget because it objects to subsidies to religious groups.

Mr Sharon looks set to replace Shinui to try to stave off general elections.

If he fails, his plans to pull out of the Gaza Strip next year may have to be put on hold or scrapped.

An aide to the prime minister said after Wednesday's vote he would fulfil his promise to sack Shinui for voting against the budget.

The BBC's Matthew Price in Jerusalem says Mr Sharon is expected to approach the left-wing Labour Party to join his coalition.

It is thought he wants to complete the deal by Monday, when a possible no-confidence vote could otherwise force the collapse of the government.

If he cannot tie down a new coalition, general elections would have to be held, two years ahead of schedule.

Labour joining the coallition then (or holding out for elections they think they could win now Arafat is pushing up roses?)? Along with Gaza withdrawal, these could be interesting times.

[mayer]

Israeli PM sacks coalition allies  

Ariel Sharon has to try to form a new coalition
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has sacked his junior coalition partner in government, signalling the collapse of his coalition.
Mr Sharon sacked ministers from the Shinui party, which voted against the government in the defeat of the annual budget in parliament on Wednesday.

Shinui, a secular party, objected to subsidies to religious groups.

The break-up of the coalition triggers a crisis that may derail Mr Sharon's plan to pull out of the Gaza Strip.

Mr Sharon is now looking for new coalition partners to stave off a general election.

Untenable government

He handed letters of dismissal to Shinui ministers within an hour of the vote. The sacking takes affect within 48 hours.

"We had a very amicable discussion with Mr Sharon who expressed his regrets about our departure from the government and we expressed our regrets about how we had to leave the government," said Shinui leader and outgoing Justice Minister Tommy Lapid.

The BBC's Barbara Plett in Jerusalem says the prime minister now heads an untenable government.

His Likud party controls only 40 of the 120 seats, and is itself deeply divided.

Mr Sharon is expected to approach the left-wing Labour Party to join his coalition - but to bring it on board he would have to overcome strong objections within Likud, our correspondent says.

He may also persuade members of a minor religious party, United Torah Judaism, to join him in return for offering religious subsidies in the budget.

Support over Gaza

It is thought Mr Sharon wants to complete a new coalition deal by Monday, when a possible no-confidence vote could otherwise force general elections to be held, two years ahead of schedule.

Correspondents say Labour leader Shimon Peres is keen on the idea of joining the government as foreign minister.

But some Labour politicians may be unhappy about supporting Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's economic policies. Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak is thought to be among those opposed to joining a coalition.

If Labour agrees to join, it would avoid early elections.

It would also mean that Mr Sharon's main coalition partner is fully behind his plan to withdraw from settlements in the Gaza Strip.

Israel is planning to pull all its settlers from Gaza and the troops that protect them under Mr Sharon's disengagement plan. Israel will maintain control of Gaza's borders, coastline and airspace. Four West Bank settlements are also to be evacuated.

[mayer]

While Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom vowed last week that Barghouti wouldn't be released, President Moshe Katsav said in an interview published by Israel's Ma'ariv newspaper a few days later that he may consider pardoning Barghouti.

Barghouti came in third place in a September leadership poll, with the support of 13 percent of the 1,319 adults polled by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. He came in behind Arafat, who got 35 percent.

Mahmoud Zahar, an official of Hamas, an Islamic group that is on both the U.S. and European Union lists of terrorist organizations, got 15 percent.

If the government collapses, Shalom may well not be sticking around as FM... If Labour joins the coalition, they will insist on the FM or Treasury, and everyone is happy keeping that tart cunt Netenyahu wallowing in there.

And Katsav will still be President regardless....

CAIRO, 2 December 2004 — Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas said in comments published yesterday a peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians was possible in 2005 and talks on a final settlement should begin straightaway. Abbas, chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization and Fatah's candidate to succeed Yasser Arafat, called on Israel to take confidence-building steps including a prisoner release and a halt to illegal settlement construction.

My NEW totally unfounded predictions? It's all up for grabs now... from a relative calm in 2005 post Abbas (or even Barghouti) winning the election, and Sharon/God Knows being in charge in Israel. Or Civil War, on either side. Or both.

These times keep getting more interesting by the minute.

[mayer]

Er... that's as in "Sharon" or "Fuck Knows Who Else", being in control.


I wasn't calling Sharon God.

[Dusty Gozongas]

In the words of the best home secretary we sadly never had:
"YOU.. Give him his country back.. and YOU... get yorrr 'air cut!"

Or sommat.

Where the fuck did the truly great statesmen go?  And why isn't Eat The Rich available at Blockbuster?

[mayer]

Labour in Israel coalition talks  


The opposition Labour party in Israel has begun coalition talks with Likud, the governing party of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Labour leader Shimon Peres said the party wanted to secure the pull-out of Jewish settlers from Gaza and parts of the West Bank.

Labour also wants to put pressure on the government to follow the road map plan for peace with the Palestinians.

Mr Sharon needs Labour support to avoid early elections.


The prime minister invited Labour to join his cabinet on Friday, days after sacking members of the Shinui party from his government and losing his parliamentary majority.

Peace hope

"To pull out settlers and settlements is hard. The price is peace," Mr Peres said before the vote by the Labour Party's Central Committee in favour of joining the government.

 We are going inside in order to make peace


"We are going inside in order to make peace," he told reporters in Tel Aviv, and added that coalition talks could be "resolved in days".

Likud voted on Thursday to revoke a ban, issued in August, on a coalition with Labour.

Of the 3,000 members of Likud's Central Committee, about 62% voted in favour of the move.

Mr Sharon has also spoken to the leaders of two ultra-Orthodox parties.

Shas and United Torah Judaism are being invited to join the government as well. Likud members see them as an important counterweight to any left-wing influence from Labour.


Mr Sharon's plan for Gaza would see Israel remove thousands of Jewish settlers - and the troops that protect them - from the Gaza Strip while retaining overall control over the area's borders.

The government is in a weak position, controlling just a third of seats in parliament, the Knesset, after losing three coalition partners.

A coalition government with Labour may signal at least a pause in the crises that have rocked Israel's government for the past six months, says the BBC's Barbara Plett in Jerusalem.

Labour supports disengagement from Gaza, hoping it can be turned from a unilateral move into an integral part of a new peace process.

[mayer]

They're doing this on purpose to annoy me, clearly;

Palestinian leader quits election  

Jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti has withdrawn from next month's Palestinian elections.

The surprise move, announced by an aide, comes 10 days after he declared himself a candidate to succeed the late Yasser Arafat as Palestinian leader.

Mr Barghouti is serving five life terms imposed by an Israeli court in June for the killing of four Israelis and a Greek monk.

The Israelis had said they would not release him if he were elected.



U-turn


Mr Barghouti's aides announced his move at a press conference in Ramallah.


 I once again reiterate my support for brother Mahmoud Abbas, Abu Mazen, the movement's nominee. He is a dear and good friend

Barghouti letter


Profile: Marwan Barghouti  


Aide Ahmed Ghneim read out a letter from Mr Barghouti that said he was supporting the candidacy of Mahmoud Abbas, the choice of the mainstream Fatah party.

But the letter was also critical of Fatah, some members of which had condemned Mr Barghouti for splitting the party in running against Mr Abbas.

Mr Barghouti, Fatah's charismatic 45-year-old West Bank general secretary, was captured in 2002.

His letter also spelled out his opposition to the disarming of any Palestinian groups or any deal with Israel that did not secure the release of all Palestinian prisoners.



Opinion polls had suggested a close race with Mr Abbas

The aide said Mr Barghouti's wife, Fadwa, would formally withdraw her husband's candidacy on Monday.


Recent opinion polls had suggested there would have been a close race between Mr Barghouti and Mr Abbas on 9 January.


After Arafat's death, Mr Barghouti had expressed backing for Mr Abbas, 69.

But his supporters pressured him to change his mind.

He and they were angry at what they believed was Fatah's failure to appreciate his show of support, analysts say.

In particular, Mr Abbas made no statement demanding Mr Barghouti's release from prison ahead of any return to negotiations with Israel.

However, the Fatah leadership maintained a hard line and threatened to expel Mr Barghouti if he did not withdraw his candidacy.


The BBC's Simon Wilson in Jerusalem says that with the popular Islamic militant group, Hamas, boycotting the poll, there are now no other serious challengers in sight for Mr Abbas.

[jutl]

They're doing this on purpose to annoy me, clearly;

I take it he was originally imprisoned for being an indecisive cunt?

[mayer]

They're doing this on purpose to annoy me, clearly;

I take it he was originally imprisoned for being an indecisive cunt?

Hehehhe.....

Well, the IDF are a firm believer in neat thread titles which I don't have to change every five minutes, so yup.


What's your spin on the Palestinian elections / Israeli coalition building jutters, if I may ask?

[jutl]

What's your spin on the Palestinian elections / Israeli coalition building jutters, if I may ask?

It's all  a massive puzzle to me - which is why I've not commented in your lovingly maintained thread. Sharon's disengagement plan seems to be an incredibly cunning bit of opposition-dividing with little in the way of actual land-ceding attached. The Palestinian authority seem to be flat-broke and just as peripheral to the actual struggle as ever. I wish I understood more - but I feel that my inability to speak local languages holds me back from getting a true picture of what is going on. On that subject, have you seen MEMRI - The Middle East Media Research Institute? It seems to be a project to selectively translate parts of the Arab media in order to portray all Arabs as swivel-eyed equivalents of Crazy Harry, the loveable Muppet Show terrorist. There is some genuinely terrifying stuff there, easily as one-eyed and deranged as John Gibson or Donald Rumsfeld. Is it truly representative though? I've no fucking clue.

[mayer]

I've no doubt that MEMRI are selective in what they choose to translate, but having watched Arabic television for the last 4-5 years, the job is made pretty easy for them.

Al-Jazeera aside, much of it is propaganda so coarse it provokes giggles rather than outrage, but that's how I feel watching it. If I'd been watching it since I was born I'd no doubt be influenced in a far more harmful way.


For me, that's a big part of the problem in the region... the kids (on both sides) are getting all the wrong ideas, from too young an age.

Sharon's disengagement plan seems to be an incredibly cunning bit of opposition-dividing

Yup, but an honest question... I'm not entirely sure which opposition you're referring to.... the PLO/Hamas or Labour/Shinui?

[jutl]

I've no doubt that MEMRI are selective in what they choose to translate, but having watched Arabic television for the last 4-5 years, the job is made pretty easy for them.

Al-Jazeera aside, much of it is propaganda so coarse it provokes giggles rather than outrage, but that's how I feel watching it. If I'd been watching it since I was born I'd no doubt be influenced in a far more harmful way.

Well I guess it must exist - I'm not saying that MEMRI make it up. I just see them as typical of the approach displayed by all sides in the Middle East conflict. A translation exercise like MEMRI could provide a bridge between moderate Arab opinion and the English-speaking west, helping to promote those who support consensus-building and isolate cunts. Instead they choose to promote the cunts, in order to harden American opposition to Arab interests and stiffen American support for hardline Israeli policy.

Sharon's disengagement plan seems to be an incredibly cunning bit of opposition-dividing

Yup, but an honest question... I'm not entirely sure which opposition you're referring to.... the PLO/Hamas or Labour/Shinui?

I was talking about Labour and the Israeli peace movement. I was assuming that no-one in the Arab world was buying this as a 'good start'.

[mayer]

Israeli and Palestinian leaders will sign a truce on Tuesday to end four years of fighting, reports say.


So?

Back to pre-Intifada (which technically should be pre-Sharon) levels of engagement then. At least on paper.

The talks won't, of course, lead to a final status negotiation. I think it's impossible to paper up four years of intifada and over 35 years of occupation in a matter of months or even years, but hell, *projects blind optimisim* this could well be a start.


Perhaps too early for a dissection (and the truce will no doubt fall apart as soon as I press "Submit"), but it's been a while since the last good barney about this sort of thing.

Are the recent changes (both on the ground, and in the corridors) attributable to:


i) Arafat's death, and a more responsible/reasonable succesor taking the mantle.

ii) Sharon's decision to engage with the Palestinians, which he could've done with Arafat three odd years ago if he chose to, saving about 3,000 lives and many limbs.

iii) The invasion of Iraq and succesful and bloodless transition to a fully functioning democracy and capitalist economy; a panacea showing  all Arabs realise the value of cooperation and democracy (er.... maybe scrap that one).

iv) Time... even before Arafat's death, even as early as late 2004 there was talk of the military intifada being at an end... are both "sides" simply worn out?

v) The second Bush Administration pushing for a lasting positive legacy.

vi) Sharon's financial and corruption issues which came up in 2003/4 and pretty much forced him to push the agenda towards the disengagement in Gaza to deflect attention away from himself, and is now unavoidable.

vii) Wily political influence exertion from that altruist and self-deprecating peace hero, Shimon Peres.

viii) Other, please state


Or a combination of the above?

[ccab]

... (which technically should be pre-Sharon)

Hear the Palestinian in his voice! Mayer, are you feeling ok?

I think your fourth point is the strongest factor. Both sides are exhausted, the Palestinians from depression & wretchedness now that all their organs of defiance are dead, the Israelis from weariness as occupiers, the anticlimax after Arafat's death, & increasing self-disgust - I think the infamous violinst humiliation was an important moment for them.

[Nearly Annually]

Selective MEMRI.


Seriously now, acronym-wise they're taking the piss aren't they? MiniTru anyone?

[mayer]

Hear the Palestinian in his voice! Mayer, are you feeling ok?

Well, like I always said, read past the name and you'll be surprised that I'm not always either full of shit, or how I'm caricatured by some of you guys.


Speak Your Brains on the BBC has some gems...


the good:

The real test will come the first time Sharon and/or Abbas have to reign in their own extremists. Will Sharon stand up to rejectionists in his own party that view any concession as a show of weakness? Will he really use force to remove settlers, if necessary? Will Abbas proactively move against people planning terror attacks on Israel? Will he cut people who don't recognize Israel's right to exist out of the process? It is inevitable that people on both sides will look to sabotage the peace. The problem has always been that both sides pander to their own extremists rather than recognizing them as the real enemy.

Jim , NJ, USA

the weird:

Looks like the Bush Agenda is moving forward as planned...

Thomas Brennan, Millbury, Massachusetts

the blatantly fake:

I think that we as Palestinians can do much more to end the violence against Israel, true peace is reachable once the violence on both sides will come to an end. Mr. Abbas should go ahead and dismantle Hammas and Jihad, and then the true Palestinian voice will be heard.

Mohammed, Palestine

the pointless:

I do absolutely disapprove that there is a hope of a truce in the Middle East summit as far as Ariel Sharon and the Palestinians are concerned because of Sharon's tactics.

Jama Warsame Hassan, Greenford, London

(also plenty of reasonable optimism, cynicsm, innacuracy, point scoring and the usual)

[mayer]

Hamas and Islamic Jihad have said they are not bound by the ceasefire agreed between Palestinian and Israeli leaders at a summit in Egypt on Tuesday.

Well of course, that would just be silly (!)

[mayer]

The radio tells me that hopes are that both sides will try to hold the truce after an attack killing 4 and injuring over 50 civilians outside a nightclub.


How on earth can you "hold a truce" after an attack?

That's like trying to hold it at 0-0 after a goal's gone in.


Anyway

"The Palestinian Authority will not stand silent in the face of this act of sabotage," Mr Abbas said in a statement after meeting security chiefs.

"We will follow and track down those responsible and they will be punished accordingly."

*crosses fingers and shrugs*

[thatmuch]

crosses fingers and shrugs*

I shrug, but I wouldn't cross my fingers. That wall is still being built and 'settlements' are being built behind it, and elsewhere, on Palestinian farmland. Palestinian homes are still being bulldozed and over 100 Palestinan civilians have been killed since Arafat died (compared to, I believe, 20 Israeli civilians).
According to Aljazerra Hamas' electoral successes may mean that they come more into the mainstream of politics and threaten Fatah's position as representatives of the Palestinians. I can't see that there's a threat of Islamic fundamentalism, but I can't see how there will be any hope of peace until Israel withdraw from Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

[Alberon]

The Israeli Defence Minister says he blames Syria

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4301447.stm

Is something going on here?

You had the former Lebanese Prime Minister assassinated last week which was blamed on Syria (yet doesn't seem to help it in anyway). Now you have the bombing immediatly pinned on Syria.

The paranoid conspiracist in me thinks that maybe Iran is safe for the next few years as Syria is the real target.

[mayer]

, but I can't see how there will be any hope of peace until Israel withdraw from Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

Israel is on course for withdrawing from Gaza... is planning on doing it multilaterally, has negotiated a truce, and then my brethren are being blown apart limb by limb as they queue up to go clubbing.

Yay the resistance.

[mayer]

The paranoid conspiracist in me thinks that maybe Iran is safe for the next few years as Syria is the real target.

Mahmoud Abbas is blaming a "third party"... Hamas/Islamic Jihad/Al-Aqsa usually claim anything they can get their hands on, but have been silent.

Hizbollah are Lebanese, but entirely Syrian/Iranian funded.

Are the PLO in on the conspiracy too, or just the Jews?

[mayer]

wall

Fence.


Also, the numbers of Palestinan civilians killed since Arafat's death you've quoted there includes those killed by other Palestinians soon after the old man went back to Allah.

[thatmuch]

wall

Fence.

Wall bit


Thin wall or fence?

Electric Fence bit

What does the Israeli barrier look like?
The barrier is a mainly concrete-and-steel wall, separating Israeli settlements and the Palestinian population in the West Bank. But the structure of the barrier varies along its length. At some points it's a three-metre-high electric barrier. At others, it is a six- to eight-metre-high concrete wall, topped with razor wire and flanked on either side by four-metre-deep ditches. Other elements include:

   * A ditch and a pyramid-shaped stack of six coils of barbed wire on the eastern side of the structure, barbed wire only on the western side.
   * A path enabling the patrol of Israeli forces on both sides of the structure.
   * An intrusion-detection barrier, in the centre, with sensors to warn of any incursion.
   * A smoothed strip of sand that runs parallel to the barrier, to detect footprints.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/middleeast/israel_barrier.html][/img]

[mayer]

How much is Wall, and how much is Fence.


I know. I bet you don't.


EDIT:


Oh, and look at the casualty figures, on both sides, since the fence went up.


Also look at where suicide bombers have come from in the last 12 months, and the layout of the fence.



It saves lives.