[Israel, Palestine] Election

[mayer]

Israel's Sharon quits Likud party  

Moshe Katsav said he would act soon on Mr Sharon's request.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is forming a "new national liberal" political party, leaving the right-wing Likud party he helped to found.

"Likud in its current format cannot lead Israel to its national aims," Mr Sharon said in a televised address.

He staked out claims to political ground on both the right and the left, mentioning both security and poverty.

Israel's parliament, the Knesset, has already approved the first step towards dissolving itself.

Legislators say the three more ballots needed to formally dissolve the Knesset could take place by Tuesday evening.

Mr Sharon had already asked President Moshe Katsav to dissolve parliament and call a snap election.

President Katsav said on Monday night it would be held not later than 28 March.

Mr Sharon and Labour leader Amir Peretz are understood to have agreed earlier in the week to bring forward elections from November 2006 to either February or March.

article continues


Massive news, the biggest change in domestic Israeli politics since Labour lost their first election. The biggest, most immediate and important ramification is of course that my mate Lee now owes me a pint!

[quadraspazzed]

There's (unsurprisingly) lots on Haaretz about the split/early early election.

I notice since this morning Peres has gone from 'not gonna join Sharon' to "Peres, Ramon [Lab Minister] believed soon to join Sharon's new party".

Perhaps related to this?

Poll: Sharon beats Labor, secures third term as PM

Were the elections to the 17th Knesset to be held now, Ariel Sharon would win a third term in office as prime minister and could set up a center-left coalition with Labor, Shinui and Meretz-Yahad that would have 66 seats.

These are the findings of the Haaretz-Dialog survey, conducted by Prof. Camil Fuchs Monday night among a representative sample of 600 Israelis from all sectors of the population.

[mayer]

Well, the party needs some Labour members to truly be a centrist party I guess. Ramon has never been a hard leftist, and Peres would join David Cameron's party if it meant he could wave his Nobel about and be in the limelight for another few years I reckon.

I don't see Labour winning an election against a new party which would nab all the centrist votes and some of the centre-right votes too. What could happen is the Likud trailing in third place, the death of Netenyahu as a vulture circling whoever's PM at the time and me drinking my well-won pint to celebrate that fact.

[Ciarán2]

I'm going to a talk by Ilan Pappe tomorrow, I'll report back here. Looks interesting.

[quadraspazzed]

I'm going to a talk by Ilan Pappe tomorrow, I'll report back here. Looks interesting.

I'm probably gonna go to the one on Friday afternoon (2-5 in Trinity). I'd actually be more interested in the one your going to, but alas I've a longstanding drinking engagement with an old mate I rarely see.

He also doing a talk at the Divest From Israel conference in the Teachers Club on Sat.

And Finkelstein is doing the Teachers club on Sunday ( 2 - 5pm) - definitley going to that, get my brand spanking new Beyond Chutzpah signed. Oh, and for the information.. of course.

(I'm assuming you live in Dublin... unless Pappe is doing two different talks in two different places on the same day)

[mayer]

I'm going to a talk by Ilan Pappe tomorrow, I'll report back here. Looks interesting.

Dr. Pappe is a member of the Advisory Board of the Council for Palestinian Restitution and Repatriation (CPRR), an organization which declares that "every Palestinian has a legitimate, individual right to return to his or her original home and to absolute restitution of his or her property."

Can you ask him if he also believes that every Jew expelled from Arab countries (including Aden/Yemen) in 1948, 1967 and at other times in the 20th Century have a legitimate, individual right to return to his or her original home and to absolute restitution of his or her property?

If he says yes, then I applaud his consistency. If he says no can you ask him "why not?"



Peres isn't joining the National Responsibility Party, he's vying for some sort of "Director of Football" type position where he can do all the Nobel/hand waving and not have to mess about with elections again, internal or external.

Those staying in the Likud are having a brawl for the leadership already, the Primary's on December 19th, and I reckon it's a three-way battle between Mofaz, Shalom and Netenyahu. I think Mofaz has a good chance, but as long as it's not Netenyahu, I'll be okay with that.

And I still think the new party will win the March general election.

[humanleech]

Well, the party needs some Labour members to truly be a centrist party I guess. Ramon has never been a hard leftist, and Peres would join David Cameron's party if it meant he could wave his Nobel about and be in the limelight for another few years I reckon.

I don't see Labour winning an election against a new party which would nab all the centrist votes and some of the centre-right votes too. What could happen is the Likud trailing in third place, the death of Netenyahu as a vulture circling whoever's PM at the time and me drinking my well-won pint to celebrate that fact.

Do you have any opinion about what National Responsibilitty's policy might ultimately be towards the West Bank if they gain the general support of the Israeli population? Is there any chance that they would eventually countenance withdrawl?

Also, since you have studied in this field, can you recommend any book(s) which deal with the international left's attitude to Israel and Zionism since the last war? This is out of personal interest, not because I'm a bloody student.

[mayer]

The National Responsibility Party will have Sharon's policy on the West Bank, probably, what with the impetus for the party's creation coming from him. So that means it depends on what you think Sharon's policy is:

i) Lots of talk about negotiation but feet-dragging and messing about whilst on the sly "grabbing" lots of land

ii) Genuine belief in negotiation to withdraw from the vast majority of the West Bank (minus the largest of existing settlement blocks).

iii) a mixture of (i) and (ii)



re. the left and Israel, it's really not anything I know too much about to be honest. I gave my guesses as to the shift in perception here but that's all it is really, guesses. I don't read nearly as much as I pretend to.....

[mayer]

For nearly 40 years, the aftermath of the huge victory won by the Israeli army and air force in 1967 has bedevilled Israel and its politics.

Before, Israel was a small, left-leaning state, much threatened by its neighbours, and had the emotional support of large numbers of people in the West.

The capture of so much territory changed all that.

In June 1967, the elderly David Ben-Gurion, who had been the first prime minister of Israel, was flown over the old city of Jerusalem and the captured territory of the West Bank in a helicopter by General Moshe Dayan, and shown the extent of the victory.

When they landed, Ben-Gurion gripped Dayan by the arm and told him that most of the territory should be handed back at once.

It was, he said, the only way to ensure peace.

Scarcely anyone else in Israel saw it that way, and there has been no peace since.

The old, more idealistic politics were finished.

A simplification, sure, and just one opinion there, but it's probably the most accepted one.

[LadyDay]

The List man, the List!!

[mayer]

Screw the list!

Great quote from Ha'aretz

"Don't be afraid of Amir Peretz," Braverman told reporters. "Amir Peretz is not a Communist. Amir Peretz is going in the same path as Tony Blair, because we must move in the path of Thatcherism."

:-)


Sharon's new party will now be called Kadima (meaning Forward), apparently.

[humanleech]

A simplification, sure, and just one opinion there, but it's probably the most accepted one.

I thank you, sir.

[Almost Yearly]

Shh, do you lot mind? Georgie Best is dying.

[mayer]

"Amir Peretz is not a Communist. Amir Peretz is going in the same path as Tony Blair, because we must move in the path of Thatcherism."

C'mon! That's a funny line people!

Bah, I'm going to bed!

[mayer]

Peres has quit Labour and is backing Kadima, but has not said whether or not he's going to actually join yet.

[mayer]

The bombing isn't news, so there's no point talking about it. It's not even the back-end of the Intifada, that's been over for a long time now, it's low-level bombing that both sides can live (or die) with.

Of more interest was the front page of the Guardian today, with talk of Syria bending over backwards to open talks with Israel, fearful as they are of sancitons from the UN for their role in killing Hariri over in Lebanon.

There's talk of Syria being at its weakest point, and being forced into negotiations. There's talk of neo-cons wanting to urge Bush to not accept them, and to push for sanctions. There's talk of Sharon dragging his feet too whilst Syria are this weak. It's all in the air.

Being the Middle East, of course everyone knows about these clandestine talks that may or may not be happening, it's the ones we don't know about that might be the interesting ones.

Normalization in the Middle East will benefit everyone, including the Palestinians and the rest of the world, so, y'know *crosses fingers again*.

[Evil Knevil]

Israel struck a couple of Lebanese encampments the other day...

Also, doesn't look like talks are going anywhere with the Syrians. They're just acting like the weasely fascists that everyone suspected them to be. I still think that if they'd been able to make peace over the Golan in 2000 it would have given them more room to manouver now. Presently, we've got Captain Darling Bashir al-Assad trying to assert himself and prove he's not just a jumped-up eye doctor with father issues. Which means that any deals between Syria and her neighbours are going to be furtive and uncoordinated (witness the response to the Hariri murder).

Being anti-Israel seems to be a pretty much integral part of Syrian identity. Probably because they weren't absolutely destroyed by the Israelis in 67-73 like Egypt or Jordan. They can bang on about being the home of the arabs and defending the regime against Israel is still the regimes raison d'etre.

So... Syria. Bastard country.

[slim]

From The Guardian:

The Guardian[/url]"]The Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon, has suffered a "significant" stroke and is unconscious in hospital, doctors said tonight.

Dr Shlomo Mor-Yosef, director of Hadassah hospital in Jerusalem, said Mr Sharon suffered cerebral bleeding and is receiving breathing assistance.

Cabinet secretary Yisrael Maimon said Mr Sharon's authorities have been transferred to his vice premier, Ehud Olmert.

Mr Sharon, 77, was taken to the hospital from his ranch in the Negev desert.

In a brief statement outside the hospital, Mr Mor-Yosef said Mr Sharon had suffered "a significant stroke," adding that he was "under anesthetic and receiving breathing assistance."

A few minutes later, Mr Mor-Yosef emerged to say that initial tests showed Mr Sharon had suffered a cerebral bleeding.

Mr Mor-Yosef said Sharon had "massive bleeding and was being transferred to an operating theater."

Israeli TV station Channel 2 said Sharon was suffering from paralysis in his lower body.

On December 18, Mr Sharon was taken to Hadassah hospital from his office after suffering a mild stroke. Doctors said he would not suffer long-term effects from the stroke, but they discovered a birth defect in his heart that apparently contributed to the stroke.

The dramatic downturn in the prime minister's health comes as Mr Sharon runs for re-election on March 28 at the head of a new centrist party, Kadima.

Edit: and the Beeb:

BBC News[/url]"]Israeli PM suffers serious stroke

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has suffered a "significant" stroke and is unconscious, doctors at Jerusalem's Hadassah hospital say.

Officials said the 77-year-old leader was on a respirator and had experienced "massive" cerebral bleeding.

The Israeli leader's powers have been transferred to his deputy Ehud Olmert.

Mr Sharon, 77, felt ill at his ranch in south Israel weeks after having a mild stroke and the night before he was due to undergo a minor heart operation.

He suffered a minor stroke on 18 December which doctors said could have been the result of a blood clot caused by the hole in the heart.

His doctors said he recovered fully then but required minor surgery for the heart problem.

Dr Shlomo Mor-Yosef told reporters at the hospital on Wednesday night that Mr Sharon had "massive bleeding and was being transferred to an operating theatre."

An Israeli TV station reported that Mr Sharon was suffering from paralysis in his lower body and had been taken into the hospital on a stretcher.

Mr Sharon, who has been prime minister since 2001, is severely overweight.

He had been planning to run for a third term in office under his newly-formed centrist party, Kadima, after quitting the ruling Likud party in November.

Polls suggest his new party is in the lead ahead of the election.

[mayer]

Well.

Kadima is fucked then.

[Leila]

Bad news for the peace process if Likud get back in.

[Blumf]

Can anybody throw a prediction up of what will happen if Sharon pops it? Who'll take over? What'll happen to things like the Gaza withdrawal and the wall?

[Leila]

Kadima are too weak on their own. Hopefully a Kadima Labour coalition.

[mayer]

Can anybody throw a prediction up of what will happen if Sharon pops it? Who'll take over? What'll happen to things like the Gaza withdrawal and the wall?

Olmert takes over till the elections, which are soonish anyway (March? I forget). Then it depends what happens there. I don't know if Kadima will stay together till then without Sharon. I doubt it. I don't think it matters if he dies or plods on till then, his time in politics is over.

The Gaza Withdrawal has already happened, and no-one, not even Benjamin "cunt" Netenyahu, can go back in. I suppose there may be more incursions or reprisals for the ongoing qassam rocket attacks, but new settlements in Gaza are just a political impossibility.

The question is what happens with the "peace process" (i.e. the planned unilateral withdrawals from parts of the West Bank) now. The answer is, if Likud get in, or if Kadima manage to stay togeher and have any sort of significant showing, is nothing. None of the players in Kadima have the political strength or will to do something that controversial.

If Kadima stay together and get enough seats (and Labour do too) for a Labour/Kadima coalition, then there could be nods towards some sort of dialogue. But the process will be paralized. (EDIT: for a while at least)

A Kadima/Likud coalition would do absolutely nothing.

I'm betting on Kadima disintegrating or having a poor showing, and neither Labour nor Likud having enough seats to form a majority  government without one another. Another National Government, which, as ever, will result in them doing absolutely nothing.

So, more low-level conflict for another decade or two, Hamas increasing in power and representation, and then perhaps if Labour get their shit together some more failed talks in ten years.

[Blumf]

So does that mean Sharon was the only hope of things moving forward (or even backwards) and we just have to wait for another big personality to find their way to the top (in a decade or two)?

[mayer]

In my opinion, yep, unfortunately.

With Sharon, as you rightly say, there was always the chance of things moving backwards, or to put it another way, getting totally fucked. But there was the possibility of moving forwards too, the possibility of change.

The guy is 77, and all the other major players are in advanced years. That's a massive problem in Israeli politics, all the big guns are old types that have been dominating the scene since forever.

The only other chance is Amir Peretz (and before then, the Israeli electorate) suprising me a hell of a lot and making progress.

Here's hoping eh.

[mayer]

None of the players in Kadima have the political strength or will to do something that controversial.

You silly little twat, Olmert (the Kadima leader) is the only Israeli politician ever to announce withdrawal from land before an election.

I'm betting on Kadima disintegrating or having a poor showing, and neither Labour nor Likud having enough seats to form a majority  government without one another.

You silly little twat. Even if Kadima do a lot worse than expected, a Kadima/Labour/Other-Parties-but-not-Likud coalition is inevitable.

[mayer]

Anywayse, before I get back to work... (just about) realistic hopes and fears...

Hope:
Kadima 40+
Labour 20+
Likud 15
Yisrael Beitenu - Lieberman gets abducted by aliens before the polls close and is never seen of again. The party disintegrates.

Fear:
Kadima 30
Likud 20
Yisrael Beitenu 15
Labour 14

Prediction:
Kadima 35
Labour 20
Likud 15
Yisrael Beitenu 10

[Blumf]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4855154.stm

1. Kadima: 28 seats, centrist
2. Labour: 20 seats, centre-left
3. Shas: 13 seats, ultra-orthodox
4. Yisrael Beitenu: 12 seats, Russian emigres, far-right
5. Likud: 11 seats, right-wing
6. Arab parties: 10
7. Others: 26 seats

Kadima lower than your 'fear' projection, but you got Labour spot on. I give you 7/10
How come you didn't include Shas in your round up?

[Bamber Hopcraft]

Kadima- Forward.

They will be bombing the Palestinians forward into the 21st Century instead of Likud who were bombing them back into the stone-age.

That's progress then.

It will be interesting to see if Kadima contines the policy of leaving the "Manufactured by Boeing- Lockheed" stamp from the sides of their missiles as Likud were removing them of late.

[mayer]

Well, the last bunch of exploding stuff in the region has been flying in from Gaza from Islamic Jihad. They love to radicalise Israeli voters by killing a few of them before elections (see 1996). I don't know if quassam rockets ever said "With love, Made in Iran", or not, you tell me seeing as you're the expert.

Of course, if the Israeli electorate voted the equivalent Israeli-party to Hamas who the Palestinians recently elected, Avigdor Lieberman would now be the  Prime Minister.

Kadima lower than your 'fear' projection, but you got Labour spot on. I give you 7/10
How come you didn't include Shas in your round up?

Kadima can talk up being a new party and winning, but 28 is very disappointing considering either the 40 predicted under Sharon, the 36 from polls last week or even the 30-32 from the exit polls.

I didn't include Shas because I thought the fuckers wouldn't get near 13 seats! What suprised me even more is that the Pensioner Party picked up 7! The most important election on the issues of border-definition/unilateralism/the nature of the State (and, because of Peretz, social reform), and the blue-rinse crowd become kingmakers!


Now... coalition.....

1. Kadima: 28 seats, centrist
Probable partner:
2. Labour: 20 seats, centre-left
Possible partners:
3. Shas: 13 seats, ultra-orthodox
4. Pensioners: 7 seats, single-issue
5. Torah Judaism: 6 seats, ultra-orthodox
6. Meretz: 4 seats, left-wing
Unlikely partners:
7. Israel Beitenu: 12 seats, Russian emigres, far-right
8. Likud: 11 seats, right-wing
9. Arab parties: 10 seats
10. National Union/Religious: 9 seats, far-right, settlers

Fuck! Kadima + Labour + Pensioners = 59 = not enough! So either/both Shas and UTJ too. Much rather them than Yisrael Beitenu. Shas/UTJ can usually be bought off with a few hundred million shekels to stay out the way.