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The Neverending Tory (Megacatastrofuck)

Started by Alberon, November 10, 2017, 06:40:39 PM

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Alberon

I know we have Brexit threads and Corbyn threads, but I do think we need one more for the 24/7 horrific spectacle of a government in terminal meltdown. There can be a certain level of amusement at the Tories floundering so badly, but not so much at a time that the most important set of negotiations we have been involved in half a century is being buggered long and hard by easily the most inept bunch of cretins to have run a govenment in decades.

One minister has resigned, another has been sacked, but an even worse one is safe in his job because the PM is so bereft of any sort of power. The budget is around the corner and the NHS chief is being lined up to take the blame for any winter crisis that might (will) happen.

Quote"The prime minister made it very clear that Simon Stevens was personally responsible for and accountable for the NHS's performance this winter," a source said.

"There was a long pause, as the enormity of this sunk in. He had to accept it because she was making it clear that he was in charge of winter. He couldn't say no," the source added. Colleagues of Stevens believe that it is unfair and unrealistic of May to expect the head of the service to be responsible for its entire performance, especially given its tight budget and understaffing.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/nov/10/theresa-may-tells-nhs-boss-he-will-be-accountable-for-nhs-winter-performance

The EU is expecting the government to fall apart at a moment's notice and with Theresa May I've never seen an MP, let alone a PM, so obviously hate every aspect of their job.

The old Tory big beasts are retired (or almost retired) while the next generation are largely keeping their heads down to avoid being covered with the tsunami of shit looming over the government's head. Meanwhile the likes of Patel and Johnson are prepared to burn the whole thing down for a slim chance to sit on top of the ashes.

It's fun to watch the Tories fail utterly, but at the end of the day it's you and me who are going to be fucked over by it.

Zetetic

I can't see why Simon Stevens would give the slightest solitary fuck about Theresa May attempting to hold him personally responsible for anything. He has no allegiance to this government and does the job because he seems to actually enjoy it. The worst that can happen is that perhaps he'll be forced out and he'll have to go do something far less stressful at a 3rd sector organisation down the road (or clear off to a private provider in the worst case).

Birdie

Who does he thing he is? Queen of fucking Narnia?

Replies From View

I like the Tories.  I find them cute in a kind of decaying-but-still-alive-kitten kind of way.

The husk of we-are-the-caring-green-hug-a-hoodie-scribble-of-a-tree-big-society 2005 Tories.  It is wonderful to be living through these times.

Twed

The NeverEnding Tory (Megacatastrofuck) would have been better.



Alberon

Quote from: Twed on November 10, 2017, 08:21:39 PM
The NeverEnding Tory (Megacatastrofuck) would have been better.

Yep, you're right.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

Surely their polling will now dip below 38-40%

itsfredtitmus

Quote from: Shoulders?-Stomach! on November 11, 2017, 06:53:24 AM
Surely their polling will now dip below 38-40%
Nah will never happen not until all the old people die off

pancreas

Quote from: itsfredtitmus on November 11, 2017, 07:42:15 AM
Nah will never happen not until all the old people die off

Indeed, and this is from a couple of days ago:

LAB: 43% (+1)
CON: 40% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-2)
UKIP: 4% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)

YouGov.

Unbelievable really.

Paul Calf



pancreas


itsfredtitmus

Quote from: pancreas on November 11, 2017, 10:10:46 AM
Indeed, and this is from a couple of days ago:

LAB: 43% (+1)
CON: 40% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-2)
UKIP: 4% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)

YouGov.

Unbelievable really.
State of that

Dr Rock

YouGov are unreliable as their 'panel' is made up of stupid gullible members of the public who signed up for free cash for filling in surveys without checking that very few people ever get their money from YouGov. Not to say that poll might not be broadly accurate, but I'd take other pollsters more seriously, and it would depend on their methodology.

Absorb the anus burn

12 million people will still vote for the Tories at the next election........ However, I think the polls do overestimate their popularity.

Dr Rock

The Tories did get 42% of the votes at the recent election. But a recent poll said that if there was an election tomorrow, Labour would win - the poll gave them 42% compared to the Tories 40%. This too, however, was a YouGov poll.

A poll directly after the election had Labour enjoying a 46% pretend vote share if there was a GE election tomorrow, compared to the Tories on 38%. This was also a YouGov poll.


colacentral

Was Yougov the most accurate poll at the last election? The ones who were being mocked by Andrew Neil for predicting a hung parliament?

Agreed, it's a disgrace. People are ignorant though, what can you say? The idea of Priti Patel secretly arranging to funnel the foreign aid budget through the Israeli army should be enough to sink their poll numbers, nevermind Johnson, May and Fallon.

Dr Rock

Quote from: colacentral on November 11, 2017, 11:53:16 AM
Was Yougov the most accurate poll at the last election? The ones who were being mocked by Andrew Neil for predicting a hung parliament?

I'm saying they are unreliable, not that they've never been right.

colacentral

Quote from: Dr Rock on November 11, 2017, 12:09:25 PM
I'm saying they are unreliable, not that they've never been right.

I wasn't responding to that, just asking.

Dr Rock

Right. Looking into it now, YouGov used a different model than usual for the GE, that came from some boffins at the LSE.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/the-day-after/

QuoteDuring the campaign, YouGov ran two mostly independent polling projects. The London-based UK political team conducted two traditional polls of roughly 2,000 interviews every week for The Times and The Sunday Times. The model was created by a separate team. Ben Lauderdale and Jack Blumenau of LSE built the model, with background modeling and data support by Delia Bailey and Persephone Tsebelis of the YouGov Data Science team in California.

QuoteDoug Rivers of YouGov approached Dr Lauderdale to work on the 2016 EU Referendum because of the problems of the polling in the 2015 general election when everyone wrongly predicted a Labour win.  Their analysis consistently showed Leave winning when other polls predicted Remain.

Dr Lauderdale added: "We are still absorbing the results and trying to understand where the model performed well and where it performed less well.  But the general picture is clear: the model was a huge success in an election which most politicians, pollsters and commentators got badly wrong.

"LSE's Department of Methodology has a strong interest in elections, particularly British elections, and we hope this will help us gain more recognition. My colleague Jouni Kuha, an Associate Professor in the Departments of Methodology and Statistics, was part of the team analysing the data for the exit poll on election day, which was once again spot on the final result. Certainly, a lot of people are interested in talking to me at the moment about future work, and with the strong possibility of another general election coming soon, I am sure we will be very busy."

That isn't the way they usually do their polling. Not sure if they used their 'panel' at all for that, but it sounds like it was not based purely on them, if at all. They are probably back to polling their panel of gullible self-selectors for any poll since regarding voting intention.

Norton Canes

Was there a dedicated Priti Patel thread? Or did it just get assimilated into one of the other Tory Megacatastrofuck threads?

Anyway, basically: "I was right. Screw you, Theresa."

Alberon

The next Tory leader is probably around Patel's age, but is sensibly keeping out of the limelight. Incompetent wingnuts like Patel and Johnson however are jostling in public for the top job that is still, somehow, not yet vacant.

As to the polls, it probably does have something to do with Corbyn actually being a socialist as opposed to the soft-toryism of New Labour. I'd expect if another general election was called the gap between the parties would widen though. It's unlikely to happen, but the worst case for the Tories would be the government fails and goes into a GE with May still at the helm.

Dr Rock

She looks good for 45 doesn't she? Only 16 years younger than May, who is looking ancient now.


Replies From View

Quote from: Dr Rock on November 11, 2017, 02:07:56 PM
She looks good for 45 doesn't she? Only 16 years younger than May, who is looking ancient now.

16 years is still more than a third of 45 years.  You're bound to age a bit when you add that much on.

idunnosomename

Just have Any Answers on Radio 4.

We've had a man ranting about the Falklands, then an old lady saying how marvellous and bright Boris Johnson is.

God this is the most depressing programme.

Dr Rock

Quote from: Replies From View on November 11, 2017, 02:11:48 PM
16 years is still more than a third of 45 years.  You're bound to age a bit when you add that much on.

Ok, I'll leave it at she looks good for 45. Just as an aside.

Paul Calf

Quote from: idunnosomename on November 11, 2017, 02:16:12 PM
Just have Any Answers on Radio 4.

We've had a man ranting about the Falklands, then an old lady saying how marvellous and bright Boris Johnson is.

God this is the most depressing programme.

I'm finding it really hard to defend the BBC these days. The problem is, the alternatives are far worse AND more expensive.

Alberon

I do wonder how May is getting through this. As I've said before she gives every appearance of hating all aspects of her job. While calling a snap general election wasn't actually a bad idea, the way she ran it led directly to her humiliation at the polling booth and now she knows she's just a caretaker with no power.

Virtually every day she has to eat a shit sandwich, and she's not even getting £10m for doing it. I don't feel sorry for her but the stress she's under must be enormous.