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'New' Brexit Thread 2 - The Empire Strikes Back

Started by Paul Calf, November 18, 2017, 04:35:27 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Mr_Simnock

QuoteI don't think most people would consider a change from the majority being in favour or Brexit to the majority being against 'irrelevant'.

Your hope of brexit being reversed or for a second referendum at least are admirable but unless those polls show at least 80% against leaving the EU I can't see anything changing soon, if the Tories carry on as they are though in the current discussions by the end of 2018 you never know but it's a long shot.

Howj Begg

Quote from: Zetetic on November 20, 2017, 08:08:32 PM
'Close as makes no difference' was in reference to estimates of the living bill. We were always likely to be within EUR 20 billion of EUR 70 billion.
No, it's an irrelevant change unless you believe that 2 or 3% is what determines a meaningful mandate here, which I don't think anyone does including those who were spouting it favour of Leave.

Edit: And if they do then they're witless. It's not a change that will better enable any government to make a convincing appeal that we should abandon the whole thing.

Are you suggesting the government needs to make the case against exit without using those figures? Not refer to them at all, because it would be statistically illiterate? It occurs to me that the Labour party and sane left need to play a bit dirty this time round, in order to get some passion going in the silent majority which is pro-remain.  I don't think niceties about percentage margins are that big of a deal. The point is to make that case, and use everything at your disposal - changing public opinion as shown in polling, evidence from the government's own economic impact assessments, the continuing farce of negotiations, anything. The case against Brexit, or at least a second referendum based on the deal, has to be made at some point, and not in a sportsmanlike manner. Emphasising how much of a hoax the first one was seems crucial to me here too.

Zetetic

No, it's that I don't think an argument predicated in any way on the slight wobble to the other side of the line will in practice be the slightest bit useful in convincing to the people that the Labour party (or any party) will need to convince if it's to advocate abandoning Brexit and not suffer horribly for it.

Quotea second referendum based on the deal
oh god no

I don't disagree with much else of what you'd said but we shouldn't be aiming to double-down on the damage done to democracy.

bgmnts

We should have a nationwide referendum on what I should have for breakfast tomorrow.

Howj Begg

Quote from: Zetetic on November 21, 2017, 12:26:35 AM
No, it's that I don't think an argument predicated in any way on the slight wobble to the other side of the line will in practice be the slightest bit useful in convincing to the people that the Labour party (or any party) will need to convince if it's to advocate abandoning Brexit and not suffer horribly for it.
oh god no

I just don't see how you can have any conviction about that. Without giving a reason you're essentially just providing your opinion as an authority. Current polling is likely to underestimate the shift since the referendum anyway, as we know. All the more reason to make a case, not worry about what Mail and Express readers think about that push. I also think you substantially misread the mood of the country, though that's just my feeling down in that there London. The appetite for Brexit is not there, indeed it's the opposite. The Labour Party would I think, not suffer horribly if it emphasised the democratic imperative of another referendum. I don't think any of us should be buying into the narrative of learned helplessness. It's that narrative which guaranteed us a Blair-bot-led party. Your pessimism is unbecoming.

I also don't think 'democracy' is a 'one and done deal'. Referenda are an extraordinary instance of democracy which have to be done with some forethought and planning. That did not happen in this case. Attack the referendum as an example of an of a poorly designed event the result of which tells us nothing about everything we've learned since then.

Zetetic

Quote from: Howj Begg on November 21, 2017, 12:36:34 AM
though that's just my feeling down in that there London. The appetite for Brexit is not there, indeed it's the opposite.
Yes, you're right, it is the opposite, insofar it's somewhere else.

And in those places, which continue to be relevant to winning elections (which most of London isn't - particularly the bits you're talking about, I suggest - since they're not marginal) I do indeed reckon that more voters will be more likely to be incensed by pointing to a trivial reversion of those in favour, nationally, of Brexit as a good reason for stopping it, than will be won over.

This is my opinion, true, but it's based on the observation that even the slightly more ardent Brexiters aren't driven by the fact that slightly over half of the country voted for it and that for many of them it seems to be bound up with the idea of wresting control from (roughly) the other half of the country. 52% to 48% doesn't strike me as enough to induce any sort of social proofing or the like, but possibly enough to provoke defensiveness from many people (and an emphasis on the identity aspects of Brexit over any practical ones).

It's not that I think that there aren't any routes to blunting or abandoning Brexit, but it's that I don't think current twitches in the public mood form much of a useful narrative at this point.

gib

Quote from: Mr_Simnock on November 20, 2017, 11:30:09 PM
Your hope of brexit being reversed or for a second referendum at least are admirable but unless those polls show at least 80% against leaving the EU I can't see anything changing soon, if the Tories carry on as they are though in the current discussions by the end of 2018 you never know but it's a long shot.

Anything's possible these days Mr S, tories fold, labour gets in, corbyn goes for a walk in the woods, replacement likes the EU, you could make it up

pancreas

A useful article about McDonnell et al voting against Murray's Brexit amendment.

Cuellar

Sort of tangentially Brexit, but you know all this Net Neutrality stuff going on in the States, where the FCC might allow broadband companies to start throttling speeds on certain web traffic/charge more for certain web traffic? Sounds shit eh?

Luckily, the EU ensures Net Neutrality - meaning these cynical money grubbing moves won't affect EU member states and their broadband providers.

Phew!

MojoJojo

#69
Net Neutrality isn't really that much of an issue in the UK, since most people have a choice of providers and. In the US lots of people have a local cable provider and that's their only practical choice.

I'm also not sure how much the EU enforces it, since the Vodafone pass thingy being discussed in Technology seems to be a direct violation of net neutrality (although that is mobile so maybe it isn't covered).

[edit]there/their confusion - the shame[/edit]

Cuellar


Zetetic

Quote from: MojoJojo on November 22, 2017, 10:23:54 AM
I'm also not sure how much the EU enforces it, since the Vodafone pass thingy being discussed in Technology seems to be a direct violation of net neutrality (although that is mobile so maybe it isn't covered).
Discrimination in metering, while clearly of an ilk, isn't the same as treating the traffic differently in terms of prioritisation or bandwidth, I guess.

I note that Vodafone don't provide circumstances that would allow to still receive Passes traffic, but not anything else - it's just that they'll charge you for one and not the other. (They specifically disable a feature allowing you to set a 'data cap' if you use Passes.)

Quote from: Dr Rock on November 18, 2017, 05:30:48 PM
An advisory vote, not legally binding.



Quote from: Fambo Number Mive on November 20, 2017, 06:11:37 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42050742

1,000 jobs gone from the UK because of Brexit, 1,000 less people in London to buy items from the service industry, use public transport and pay tax here.

300,000 new jobs created since the referendum, b-b-b-but look over here at this EU quango that is moving back to the EU!!!111!!

Who's going to buy all the Starbucks coffees now!!11!!

greencalx

Writing something in a pamphlet doesn't make it law, as well you know. The actual law is that stuff written on goats velum.

Dr Rock

Thanks for highlighting another Tory government lie, Walnuts.

Quote from: greencalx on November 22, 2017, 07:20:50 PM
Writing something in a pamphlet doesn't make it law, as well you know. The actual law is that stuff written on goats velum.

And yet - we're leaving! :D

Zetetic

£3 billion hedged against as-yet undescribed Brexit requirements - there's no actual plans in the budget for the money.

Is it just an attempt to nominally front-load some of the spend? Pushing it into 2018-19 and 2019-20 so it's easier to argue deficit reduction?

Do we have any idea what hundreds-of-millions spent so far on 'preparations' have actually been spent on? The Treasury was promising a breakdown ahead of the budget, but I've not been able to turn up anything.

Replies From View

Quote from: Paulie Walnuts on November 22, 2017, 07:34:13 PM
And yet - we're leaving! :D

Be less shit or find a forum that is shit enough for your shit needs.  You are staggeringly out of your depth here.

Zetetic

Although apparently DxEU has pissed away £2 million on getting McKinsey consultancy over "Policy and Delivery Coordination", which can't have been terribly good value for money.

daf



The fact is this is about identifying what we do best and finding more ways of doing less of it better


Dr Rock

Quote from: Paulie Walnuts on November 22, 2017, 08:39:39 PM
Is that so

Are we leaving, or not?

We don't have to. As I said, the referendum was just advisory. I'll believe we're leaving when we've left; neither you nor I know if Brexit may not go ahead for a number of reasons, some may be unpredictable at this point, some, like the fact that polls show the majority are against Brexit, means Brexit could well be averted. And you know it. And that's why you're shitting your pants.

Replies From View

Quote from: Paulie Walnuts on November 22, 2017, 08:39:39 PM
Is that so

Are we leaving, or not?

Quote from: Replies From View on November 22, 2017, 08:22:40 PM
Be less shit or find a forum that is shit enough for your shit needs.  You are staggeringly out of your depth here.

poo

Gone from remain to full-on, no-deal hard Brexit I have.

Johnny Yesno


Dr Rock


MojoJojo

Quote from: Zetetic on November 22, 2017, 05:26:27 PM
Discrimination in metering, while clearly of an ilk, isn't the same as treating the traffic differently in terms of prioritisation or bandwidth, I guess.
Well, I'd think that people would generally be more upset and concerned about being charged for some traffic and not others more than they would be about prioritisation or bandwidth. From a markets point of view not sure much difference.

(noting that prioritisation/bandwidth was never really going to be a practical solution, and the actual dispute was mostly about peering agreements and it's mostly disappeared now caching a cdn's have basically reducing the costs to negligible levels.
Quote
I note that Vodafone don't provide circumstances that would allow to still receive Passes traffic, but not anything else - it's just that they'll charge you for one and not the other. (They specifically disable a feature allowing you to set a 'data cap' if you use Passes.)

I think they'd be in trouble from the ASA at least if they blocked Passes traffic because you'd gone over the your normal data limit. The "data cap" bypass I don't know about - but if it's server side it's probably just because they can't update the software to handle different traffic, and if it's the normal phone limts it's definitely because they can't do anything about it.

Zetetic

Quote from: MojoJojo on November 22, 2017, 10:05:10 PM
I think they'd be in trouble from the ASA at least if they blocked Passes traffic because you'd gone over the your normal data limit.
My point is that Vodafone doesn't allow a situation where you have a 'data limit' in combination with having a Pass, as far as I can tell. (It has a point where it'll start charging you for data, on top of your monthly plan, but not where it'll cut you off, and they specifically disable a scenario which would allow this.)

That's still not very clear, is it?

It would make absolute sense to provide a facility that:
1) Let's you use non-Pass data up to a limit, and then block non-Pass data.
2) Let's you use Pass data regardless.

But they specifically don't provide such an option (although it might be possible to provide it on clients, as you hint). I wonder if that's due to regulatory issues or just down to technical ones.

MoonDust

Jesus fucking Christ, this article.

Barely started reading it and already annoyed:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/23/europe-leader-angela-merkel-crisis-german-leader-brexit

Describes Merkel as "goddess of common sense", and has this belter:

QuoteAutocratic German bankers might screw the eurozone. But there was always Minerva Merkel, the rock, pragmatic towards Russia, tough towards Greece, welcoming to refugees, tightfisted with money.

Yeah, who gives a shit about the Eurozone crisis which propelled millions of Europeans into poverty and unemployment. Who cares, we have Merkel to be "tough towards Greece". Nice one.

QuoteHenry VIII oversaw the first Brexit in 1534, detaching Britain from the authority of Roman Catholic Europe.

QuoteAs a result, in the clouds beyond we can see only the surging identity politics of nationalism, whether in Spain, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic or north Italy. War was once politics by other means. Now the converse may be the case, and thank goodness. But there is such a thing as dangerous politics.

I genuinely don't know what that war comment means or why it's there.

To be fair, I kind of agree with this:
QuoteEurope needs a leader. If Merkel is not to be one, then who? Surely not the egotistical Emmanuel Macron?

Not so much Europe needing a leader, but not wanting Macron in that role.


But nevertheless, breathtaking article.