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March 28, 2024, 09:10:01 PM

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Trump #7 - Kremlin's in the system

Started by Mister Six, February 18, 2018, 08:06:24 PM

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biggytitbo

Quote from: newbridge on February 18, 2018, 10:37:25 PM
You denied the existence of any sort of Russian criminal activity whatsoever, now that the indictments have started flying it's increasingly refined to "well of course there was but Donald J. Trump wasn't involved"


Yeah and I still do, in terms of collusion or trying to interfere with the election result.

But there's endless vague language here, 'hacking', 'interfering', 'collusion', 'Russians', 'putin', used endlessly interchangeably as the goal posts continually shift.

There's fuck all reason to think the Russian state tried to sway the US election result via twitter, or that they colluded with Trump's campaign to plot to fix the result somehow.


ALso look at this, and how they both find it hilarious when the ex-CIA head admits they interfere with other countries elections all the time. HAHA isnt it funny!! https://youtu.be/SpWai3kZ-gM?t=277

Pdine

Quote from: biggytitbo on February 19, 2018, 06:44:42 AMThere's fuck all reason to think the Russian state tried to sway the US election result via twitter,

So which aspect of this are you doubting? The indictment seems fairly clear in identifying efforts by the Internet Research Agency to affect US public opinion during the election:

https://www.justice.gov/file/1035477/download

and multiple investigations into the IRA have shown that it also pursued Putin-supporting strategies over years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Research_Agency#Organizers
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Research_Agency#Trolling_themes
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/02/17/a-former-russian-troll-speaks-it-was-like-being-in-orwells-world

The idea that a well-funded disinformation campaign, chiefly dedicated to furthering Putin's political aims, existed in relatively plain view in a closely controlled state like Russia without official blessing is absurd, as you must know.

Quoteor that they colluded with Trump's campaign to plot to fix the result somehow.

That they attempted to affect the result seems almost beyond doubt now, and we have evidence from the Stephanopoulos indictment that - at the very least - knowledge of a Russian state effort to benefit Trump was present in the campaign. So I think that it's not that wise to write off the possibility of some degree of collusion yet...

QuoteALso look at this, and how they both find it hilarious when the ex-CIA head admits they interfere with other countries elections all the time. HAHA isnt it funny!! https://youtu.be/SpWai3kZ-gM?t=277

What's your point? By that logic no country that has ever invaded another should defend itself if invaded.

Jack Shaftoe

I don't think there's any doubt that the US often interferes in other countries' elections, be interesting to see them try and justify that as the evidence for Russian interference rolls in.

biggytitbo

No, the indictment shows quite clearly it was a very typical marketing scam to rack up ad revenue using fake social media accounts. Why if it was a sinister Kremlin scheme to sway US democracy would they leave a trail back to themselves for the sake of collecting a few rubles via paypal?

And yet again we have this nonsense where all Russians = Putin, anyone who has ever met Putin = must be in a high level conspiracy with him. Just madness, The idea that if Putin wanted to interfere with the US election he'd do so via a few contradictory memes on twitter and facebook, most of them after the election, and then risk Hilary winning anyway and acting retribution on Russia is pure nonsense.

Of course the goalposts continually shift. What started out as Russia literally hacking into voting machines then became them literally hacking into the DNC, then high level conspiracy between Putin and Trumps campaign, then a vast conspiracy to sway the US election via facebook and twitter, ends up being 13 trolls on social media posting contradictory memes and retweeting mainstream us media articles, most after the election, to 'sow discord' or something.

ajsmith2

It's not 'ended up' being 13 trolls. The investigations still ongoing. I'm trying to stay skeptical about this myself, but Trump absolutely crapping his pants on Twitter yesterday over this suggests to me there's more to come.

Pdine

Quote from: biggytitbo on February 19, 2018, 07:31:20 AM
No, the indictment shows quite clearly it was a very typical marketing scam to rack up ad revenue using fake social media accounts. Why if it was a sinister Kremlin scheme to sway US democracy would they leave a trail back to themselves for the sake of collecting a few rubles via paypal?

...because they don't really care if they're exposed? It doesn't lessen the effect of their work, as their repeated exposure over the years has shown. Also of course there's absolutely no reason to focus on pro-Putin themes if you're just in it for money. Desperate stuff, Biggy.

QuoteAnd yet again we have this nonsense where all Russians = Putin, anyone who has ever met Putin = must be in a high level conspiracy with him. Just madness, The idea that if Putin wanted to interfere with the US election he'd do so via a few contradictory memes on twitter and facebook, most of them after the election, and then risk Hilary winning anyway and acting retribution on Russia is pure nonsense.

Why? How do you think he would do it, if that strategy is 'nonsense'?

QuoteOf course the goalposts continually shift. What started out as Russia literally hacking into voting machines then became them literally hacking into the DNC, then high level conspiracy between Putin and Trumps campaign, then a vast conspiracy to sway the US election via facebook and twitter, ends up being 13 trolls on social media posting contradictory memes and retweeting mainstream us media articles, most after the election, to 'sow discord' or something.

This is a soupy mess of misinformation, as you must know. What you are implying is a 'retreat' of successive accounts is in fact just a group of different claims, each with varying degrees of support.

biggytitbo

Quote from: Pdine on February 19, 2018, 07:38:02 AM
...because they don't really care if they're exposed? It doesn't lessen the effect of their work, as their repeated exposure over the years has shown. Also of course there's absolutely no reason to focus on pro-Putin themes if you're just in it for money. Desperate stuff, Biggy.

Hardly, they were promoting pro gun control, pro environmental, pro LBGT, pro BLM causes, alongside stuff to appeal to Trump voters. Much of it after the election. It was about racking up as many followers as possible to sell ads against - it was a money making scheme not a political one -

QuoteDefendants and their co-conspirators also used the accounts to receive money from real U.S. persons in exchange for posting promotions and advertisements on the ORGANIZATION-controlled social media pages. Defendants and their co-conspirators typically charged certain U.S. merchants and U.S. social media sites between 25 and 50 U.S. dollars per post for promotional content on their popular false U.S. persona accounts, including Being Patriotic, Defend the 2nd, and Blacktivist.

phantom_power

Quote
Dr. Jill Stein🌻
@DrJillStein
The election interference that actually impacted the 2016 election was DNC & corporate media collusion to elevate Trump & sabotage progressives. This Russia hysteria is designed to cover up DNC corruption, attack political opposition, feed war machine & censor independent voices.

Yeah, wasn't the biggest collusion between members of the DNC in pushing Clinton as the candidate. They seemed to custom-fit the person most likely to lose to Trump. And there is little evidence they have learned from their mistake

Pdine

Quote from: biggytitbo on February 19, 2018, 08:13:08 AM
Hardly, they were promoting pro gun control, pro environmental, pro LBGT, pro BLM causes, alongside stuff to appeal to Trump voters. Much of it after the election. It was about racking up as many followers as possible to sell ads against - it was a money making scheme not a political one -

You are just trolling now. From the indictment:

Quote
77. On or about August 18, 2016, Defendants and their co-conspirators sent money via interstate wire to another real U.S. person recruited by the ORGANIZATION, using one of their false U.S. personas, to build a cage large enough to hold an actress depicting Clinton in a prison uniform.

How did that fit into this purely financial scheme?

Pdine

Quote from: phantom_power on February 19, 2018, 09:01:16 AMYeah, wasn't the biggest collusion between members of the DNC in pushing Clinton as the candidate. They seemed to custom-fit the person most likely to lose to Trump. And there is little evidence they have learned from their mistake

...although to be honest - as I keep tediously repeating - any Democrat was going to have a massive fight on their hands to do something that hasn't happened in the modern era (Democrat President replacing a living Democrat President). The race wasn't theirs to squander, really.

biggytitbo

Do you have any evidence that is true, or if it is that it wasn't just a joke? But even if it was they knew exactly what the mainstream media also knew during the election campaign - Trump content got the most hits, 'arrest Hillary' was a big story and got a lot of hits, the trolls whole job was to get hits, garner followers so they could sell ads against those followers. The reason for the amount of contradictory content was to garner followers from as many groups as possible, so they could sell more ads. No big mystery here, many many companies around the world are trying to do the same thing.

Pdine

Quote from: biggytitbo on February 19, 2018, 09:47:02 AM
Do you have any evidence that is true, or if it is that it wasn't just a joke?

The money transfer was real, it must be assumed, if the Grand Jury placed it in the indictment. In other areas you are entirely credulous of the financial footprint the operations left...

QuoteBut even if it was they knew exactly what the mainstream media also knew during the election campaign - Trump content got the most hits, 'arrest Hillary' was a big story and got a lot of hits, the trolls whole job was to get hits, garner followers so they could sell ads against those followers.

So - again - how does paying for a cage for use at a rally in the US help that at all? It's an expense with little or no power to help sell ads. The operation cost $1.25m a month at its height, and you are arguing that it was a purely financial op on the grounds that they charged 'between $25 and $50' to advertisers. Seriously?

Buelligan

Quote from: Pdine on February 19, 2018, 07:38:02 AM
...because they don't really care if they're exposed? It doesn't lessen the effect of their work, as their repeated exposure over the years has shown. Also of course there's absolutely no reason to focus on pro-Putin themes if you're just in it for money. Desperate stuff, Biggy.

I think one needs to consider why Russia would want Trump - the answer, IMO, is because it would harm America/the West. 

So they win if Trump is elected but Trump is just one person, the government is much bigger than just one person, the history, reputation, of the US is much, much, bigger even than Trump.  But what happens if you get a complete and obvious cunt elected as POTUS (doesn't matter whether this is by design or by chance) and you undermine the Office, set the FBI in open war with the Head of State, what happens if no one believes any more or what they believe is that everything is corrupt and the Russians got to the moon first?  Is that a bigger win ?  (Is that a good reason to leave a little trail of breadcrumbs home, because exposure is actually the goal?).

Primarily, America only gets to bully the world because the world believes it can.  Now the world is starting to consider whether Russia have kicked their arses, it doesn't matter whether they have or not, no one ever wants the button pushed anyway.  What matters is whether the world still believes America is unassailable.  And right now, they're looking pretty incompetent, aren't they?

biggytitbo

Quote from: Pdine on February 19, 2018, 09:59:23 AM
The money transfer was real, it must be assumed, if the Grand Jury placed it in the indictment. In other areas you are entirely credulous of the financial footprint the operations left...


You can get a grand jury indictment for a ham sandwich, as the old saying goes. Its meaningless, these are meaningless charges and nobody is ever going to be charged with anything. Since when did the FBI have jurisdiction over people in Russia?

Quote
So - again - how does paying for a cage for use at a rally in the US help that at all? It's an expense with little or no power to help sell ads. The operation cost $1.25m a month at its height, and you are arguing that it was a purely financial op on the grounds that they charged 'between $25 and $50' to advertisers. Seriously?


It did not cost $1.25m, the indictment itself (if you believe it) says their overall operation had a budget of $1.25m, but this included numerous campaigns in both Russia and other countries, only one of which was the US. So some small fraction of $1.25m, which is itself an infinitesimally small fraction of the over election spend in the US (and most of the ads weren't even run during the election).

Buelligan

Quote from: biggytitbo on February 19, 2018, 11:34:52 AM

Since when did the FBI have jurisdiction over people in Russia?

Précisément, vieux crapaud, exactement.

It's almost as if they can act with impunity and we're just watching.

Pdine

Quote from: biggytitbo on February 19, 2018, 11:34:52 AM

You can get a grand jury indictment for a ham sandwich, as the old saying goes. Its meaningless, these are meaningless charges and nobody is ever going to be charged with anything.

Now now, don't get riled up just because you were wrong.

QuoteSince when did the FBI have jurisdiction over people in Russia?

You don't understand jurisdiction, do you?

QuoteIt did not cost $1.25m, the indictment itself (if you believe it) says their overall operation had a budget of $1.25m, but this included numerous campaigns in both Russia and other countries, only one of which was the US. So some small fraction of $1.25m, which is itself an infinitesimally small fraction of the over election spend in the US (and most of the ads weren't even run during the election).

What difference does that make? To break even, at that rate, they would need to sell over 1,000 paid ads a day (not views - actual placed ads) on their feeds. That's not really a credible figure. If your theory is true, why was this money-spinning scheme paying for cages and Clinton impersonators in US rallies? You've reached the 'fingers-in-ears-lalalalala' stage of denial over this stuff Biggy, and frankly it's sad to see. It would be much more edifying if you'd just acknowledge that new information may have invalidated some of your assumptions, and proceed with dignity from there.

biggytitbo

Quote from: Pdine on February 19, 2018, 11:49:53 AM
Now now, don't get riled up just because you were wrong.
The FBI have no power to charge people in Russia with anything

Quote
You don't understand jurisdiction, do you?
Well I understand the FBI don't have jurisdiction in Rissia.

Quote
What difference does that make? To break even, at that rate, they would need to sell over 1,000 paid ads a day (not views - actual placed ads) on their feeds

To break even at what rate? How much did they spend in the US? You don't know do you? And like a lot of IT stuff, its profitable to do it in a country like Russia (or Latvia or India) because there's high skill levels but low wages.

QuoteIf your theory is true, why was this money-spinning scheme paying for cages and Clinton impersonators in US rallies?

You're quite fixated on this anecdote aren't you? Do you have any evidence it ever occured? How much do you think it costs to hire a lookalike in a cheap wig and a prop cage? Couple of hundred dollars max, or just photoshop it for even less. Its sad to see how many people have lost their minds over this piffle.

Quote
You've reached the 'fingers-in-ears-lalalalala' stage of denial over this stuff Biggy, and frankly it's sad to see. It would be much more edifying if you'd just acknowledge that new information may have invalidated some of your assumptions, and proceed with dignity from there.

Ohh man, take a look in a mirror, this stuff seems to have the status of religion for you.

Mister Six

Oh, Biggy. Lives in a world where a criminal indictment based on a months-long investigation that is filed with the direct purpose of prosecuting people is just hearsay without proof, while whatever crazed conspiracy theory he's able to form by joining dots on a Dalmatian is obviously, unquestionably true.

biggytitbo

This story about a similar operation in Macedonia tells you everything you need to know about the Mueller indictment - https://www.wired.com/2017/02/veles-macedonia-fake-news/

QuoteIn the final weeks of the US presidential election, Veles attained a weird infamy in the most powerful nation on earth; stories in The Guardian and on BuzzFeed revealed that the Macedonian town of 55,000 was the registered home of at least 100 pro-Trump websites, many of them filled with sensationalist, utterly fake news. (The imminent criminal indictment of Hillary Clinton was a popular theme; another was the pope's approval of Trump.) The sites' ample traffic was rewarded handsomely by automated advertising engines, like Google's AdSense.

QuoteBetween August and November, Boris earned nearly $16,000 off his two pro-Trump websites. The average monthly salary in Macedonia is $371

QuoteAfter publishing a piece, he shared the link in Facebook groups with names like My America, My Home; the Deplor­ables; and Friends Who Support President Donald J. Trump. Trump groups seemed to have hundreds of thousands more members than Clinton groups, which made it simpler to propel an article into virality.

QuoteThese Macedonians on Facebook didn't care if Trump won or lost the White House.


biggytitbo

Quote from: Mister Six on February 19, 2018, 12:56:48 PM
Oh, Biggy. Lives in a world where a criminal indictment based on a months-long investigation that is filed with the direct purpose of prosecuting people


Explain how the FBI is going to prosecute anyone over this. Mueller's playing to the galleries.


Always funny how people big up Mueller as some sort of studious g-man from a 1930s Hollywood film, seemingly forgetting this was the idiot who made a total mess of the anthrax investigation, another farce that dragged on for years to no avail.

BlodwynPig

Quote from: ajsmith2 on February 19, 2018, 07:36:22 AM
It's not 'ended up' being 13 trolls. The investigations still ongoing. I'm trying to stay skeptical about this myself, but Trump absolutely crapping his pants on Twitter yesterday over this suggests to me there's more to come.

*bottom lip trembles*

BlodwynPig

Quote from: Buelligan on February 19, 2018, 10:11:53 AM
I think one needs to consider why Russia would want Trump - the answer, IMO, is because it would harm America/the West. 

So they win if Trump is elected but Trump is just one person, the government is much bigger than just one person, the history, reputation, of the US is much, much, bigger even than Trump.  But what happens if you get a complete and obvious cunt elected as POTUS (doesn't matter whether this is by design or by chance) and you undermine the Office, set the FBI in open war with the Head of State, what happens if no one believes any more or what they believe is that everything is corrupt and the Russians got to the moon first?  Is that a bigger win ?  (Is that a good reason to leave a little trail of breadcrumbs home, because exposure is actually the goal?).

Primarily, America only gets to bully the world because the world believes it can.  Now the world is starting to consider whether Russia have kicked their arses, it doesn't matter whether they have or not, no one ever wants the button pushed anyway.  What matters is whether the world still believes America is unassailable.  And right now, they're looking pretty incompetent, aren't they?

This is nicely put. Pdine and "his ilk" are going to be watching Rambo and Die Hard marathons to still their patriotic hearts, but it won't make much difference. USA is dead. We won, comrades.

BlodwynPig

Quote from: Mister Six on February 19, 2018, 12:56:48 PM
Oh, Biggy. Lives in a world where a criminal indictment based on a months-long investigation that is filed with the direct purpose of prosecuting people is just hearsay without proof, while whatever crazed conspiracy theory he's able to form by joining dots on a Dalmatian is obviously, unquestionably true.

Come in No. 7, your time is up.

biggytitbo

Assange also seems to get that this self serving hoax is actually about nothing more than a minor spam advertising scam - https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/965328224514465792

QuoteBuried in the Mueller astro-turfing indictment is something that we have long suspected. The Internet Research Agency's "troll farm" is geared to develop audience in socially active communities (e.g through aligned memes), in order to spam them on behalf of anyone willing to pay:

Before advertising networks can advertise they must build audience. How much of IRA's activities were simply trying to build audience by gaining followers using tweets and memes likely to be shared in those communities?
IRA allegedly also ran kitten appreciation groups. Are we also to believe that these kittens were also a plot to divide America? To not distinguish between audience building and customer advertising payload is sketchy.

The US has 320 million people with a trillion dollar media and cultural sector that employees over a million people. I do not assess that it is possible whatsoever to divide America by trying to "heighten the differences" with a hundred trolls
Re-enforcing audience bias is exactly what Facebook & Google have been doing at a vast scale by algorithmically preying on people's existing biases to increase engagement. In a more traditional manner, FOX, MSNBC, CNN, NYTimes, WaPO etc, are doing the same thing.

Regardless of whether IRA's activities were audience building through pandering to communities or whether a hare-brained Russian government plan to "heighten the differences" existed, its activities are clearly strategically insignificant compared to the other forces at play.




Pdine

Quote from: biggytitbo on February 19, 2018, 12:24:46 PM
The FBI have no power to charge people in Russia with anything
Well I understand the FBI don't have jurisdiction in Rissia.

I'm just going to let you read up on this.

QuoteTo break even at what rate?

The rate you cited,

QuoteHow much did they spend in the US? You don't know do you?

I'm assuming that whatever it was, it fell within the $1.25m/month cited in the indictment.

QuoteAnd like a lot of IT stuff, its profitable to do it in a country like Russia (or Latvia or India) because there's high skill levels but low wages.

That's not the issue. The issue is running 1,000 separate ads daily on a limited number of fake Facebook pages.

QuoteYou're quite fixated on this anecdote aren't you? Do you have any evidence it ever occured? How much do you think it costs to hire a lookalike in a cheap wig and a prop cage? Couple of hundred dollars max, or just photoshop it for even less. Its sad to see how many people have lost their minds over this piffle.

Again, actually read the indictment then get back to me. I stress it because it directly contradicts your argument.

QuoteOhh man, take a look in a mirror, this stuff seems to have the status of religion for you.

Point out where I'm in error and I'll admit it.

Pdine

Quote from: BlodwynPig on February 19, 2018, 01:34:04 PM
This is nicely put. Pdine and "his ilk" are going to be watching Rambo and Die Hard marathons to still their patriotic hearts, but it won't make much difference. USA is dead. We won, comrades.

What the fuck are you talking about? I have few pro-US sentiments, and I'm not American. Go fuck yourself.

Pdine

Quote from: biggytitbo on February 19, 2018, 12:57:35 PM
This story about a similar operation in Macedonia tells you everything you need to know about the Mueller indictment - https://www.wired.com/2017/02/veles-macedonia-fake-news/

An interesting read, although it does highlight how different in scale and activity the Veles effort was to the IRA, and thereby kind of destroys your argument.

phantom_power

Quote from: Pdine on February 19, 2018, 09:42:05 AM
...although to be honest - as I keep tediously repeating - any Democrat was going to have a massive fight on their hands to do something that hasn't happened in the modern era (Democrat President replacing a living Democrat President). The race wasn't theirs to squander, really.

At least Sanders would have been able to fight Trump on a relatively even footing in terms of not being part of the political establishment. I am not sure using that sort of precedent is useful when judging the specific situation at the time. The Democrats were pretty close to winning and having someone more tolerable to the floating voters than Clinton could well have swayed it.

Leicester had never won the premier league. Until they did

Pdine

Quote from: phantom_power on February 19, 2018, 02:37:32 PM
I am not sure using that sort of precedent is useful when judging the specific situation at the time.

It's been useful/predictive in every election since 1861.

phantom_power

Quote from: Pdine on February 19, 2018, 02:46:06 PM
It's been useful/predictive in every election since 1861.


See my Leicester comparison

It seems pretty clear that this was a very winnable election for the Dems and them losing was entirely of their own making. It also seems clear that they are using the Russia thing to try to paper over how much they  fucked up. That is not to say it isn't important in itself