Bond villain strikes again, again?

[biggytitbo]

Also let's not forget the current story is that the Skripals were affected by Novichok gel on their door handle. Did that come from a tiny vial that somehow ends up in a junkies house in Amesbury? And if you can contrive some scenario where it ends up in their house, why did they both take a bit of unknown gel hours apart?

[Pdine]

I do beg your pardon if that wasn't you, there's someone else in this thread that sounds a lot like you in that case.

No need to apologise; just try to accuse the right people when you're ranting about accuracy :)

Anyway, I think they might be about to row back on the Russia did it angle and try something else.

I would be very surprised if this happened, whatever the facts. I'm kind of puzzled that anyone not on park-found novichok could think this. I mean, yes, in maybe five years they might start a slow rearrangement, but right now they couldn't possibly retreat further than 'it's a mystery but [glares east]'.

Let's see, remember how they unconvincingly pinned the 2001 anthrax attack on some rogue scientist, in an attempt to try and wrap a supremely dodgy story up and make it go away?

I keep missing the part where you provide a better explanation of this. It was a shitty investigation, led by Mueller I think, but I think before you declare it a cover story you have to have some notion of what it was covering, and ideally some back-up that is not auto-anally-derived.

They could go with some organised Russian mafia angle, blame these two for it and similarly try to make the whole thing go away. Or stick with at a story hardly anybody believes, and just becomes more unbelievable with this development. I guess we'll find out in the next few days.

See, what's clear to me is that you are reasoning from a basis of assuming that this wasn't a state-sponsored Russian operation. I'm not saying it was, but you clearly don't ever consider that it was. The unexpressed first line of your thinking always seems to be: Given that we know that it couldn't be Putin... So now you're talking about the Russian Mafia, which most analysts acknowledge isn't distinct from the state in the same way that most criminal organisations are distinct from their natal governments. So go on... the Russian mafia did what?

[biggytitbo]

I'm not going to rule it out, but you'd be right in saying I think its incredibly unlikely it was Putin, absolutely nothing we know suggests it was (quite the opposite) - other than the surprisingly hasty assertion of the British government, which they have backed up by precisely no evidence.


What I was saying above is the vial of Novichok been found in a seemingly unrelated couples house hardly strengthens the already flaky British gov assertion does it? Black market dealing, Porton Down leak, something else, all seem more likely now.

[Noonling]

Now you're trying to sell the idea these people were random vial collectors, snuffling around parks in Salisbury for treasure and taking it home to another town, before then having a cheeky sniff 12 hours apart. You will literally believe any old bollocks won't you?

So to clarify, what alternatives are there? I'm trying to come up with all possible solutions and frankly none of them seem more likely.
- Red flag operation where the secret service poison British citizens to point the finger at Russia
- An unemployed couple decide to buy some Novichok on the black market
- The couple steal some Novichok from Porton Down where its just sitting around
- Someone from Porton Down (which in this scenario has Novichok) accidentally takes some Novichok out and mislays it and by a convoluted series of events the couple come across it.
- Its not actually Novichok and the whole incident is faked by the British

Have I missed any?

Sure, none of it makes sense no matter how you look at it, but the idea that two people may have picked up something in a park is no less likely.

[biggytitbo]

I do agree, I'm not saying there's any obvious explanation that makes sense here.

There's now some suggestion that it was Charlie Rowley, who has just regained consciousness, that told the police about the vial, which is why they only just found it. Interesting, but it then makes you wonder how well it was hidden that the police couldn't find it in the victim's own house despite searching the whole of the area for it. We'll hidden because they knew what it was perhaps?

https://skwawkbox.org/2018/07/13/cctv-12-days-when-police-failed-to-find-novichok-bottle-and-the-questions-no-msm-are-asking/

I'm becoming more convinced now it was these two that were the mysterious cctv couple with the red bag now



Maybe they had an appointment to meet the Skripals that Sunday? Sergei was by the account of the waiter unusually agitated and annoyed by how long the food was taking, the cctv couple were caught looking at the camera 10 minutes before the Skripals are found, they're heading towards the park where the Skripals were found and the woman is carrying a red bag - a red bag was found with the Skripals after they collapsed. I think it might be them.

[biggytitbo]

So what about someone at Porton Down, maybe down on his luck and needing cash, decided to smuggle out a bit of military grade nerve agent, is put into contact with an intermediary (Rowley and Sturgess) who have a client willing to pay big bucks - a former Soviet spy with contacts in organised crime. The exchange goes tits up because they're basically amateurs, the stash the rest of the sample in Rowley house before, for some reason, they both accidently poison themselves with it 4 months later.

[Noonling]

So what about someone at Porton Down, maybe down on his luck and needing cash, decided to smuggle out a bit of military grade nerve agent, is put into contact with an intermediary (Rowley and Sturgess) who have a client willing to pay big bucks - a former Soviet spy with contacts in organised crime. The exchange goes tits up because they're basically amateurs, the stash the rest of the sample in Rowley house before, for some reason, they both accidently poison themselves with it 4 months later.

Good, now we've got an equally unlikely alternative.

So:
A) Russians decide to sloppily poison a Russian spy on UK soil, and then just chuck some spare in a park or something.
B) Two drug users are seen as the perfect intermediary to move Novichok from Porton Down (which supposedly doesn't have any Novichok) to Skripal (because he didn't want to nab any from the Russians). When everything goes tits up they just chill for a few months then decide to huff on a vial of it.

[biggytitbo]

Porton Down do have Novichok don't they? At the very least it's both in the public domain and they are allowed to have small amounts of it under the OPCW, even if we believe Porton Down has nothing naughty and undeclared.

[BlodwynPig]

"Look, we've got to get rid of the gear Rowley, just flush it down the loo"

"Alright, it's done, now let me have a sniff from your poppers bottle, love"

[Noonling]

Porton Down do have Novichok don't they? At the very least it's both in the public domain and they are allowed to have small amounts of it under the OPCW, even if we believe Porton Down has nothing naughty and undeclared.

Apologies - I thought they had denied it outright but they went with what I guess could be interpreted otherwise:

He denied Russian claims that the substance could have come from Porton Down, which is eight miles from Salisbury, saying: "There's no way that anything like that would ever have come from us or leave the four walls of our facilities."

[biggytitbo]

Sky reporting they have finally found some suspects on cctv, 4 months later, and they are of a type developed in Russia!

[Pdine]

Sky reporting they have finally found some suspects on cctv, 4 months later, and they are of a type developed in Russia!

Lovey example here of a nascent prejudiced view. None of us know yet what this information is, but here's your pre-judged skepticism present and correct. Fascinating to see it as it happens :)

[biggytitbo]

Another leaked story to the press with no source, but yeah, don't be sceptical everyone.

[Pdine]

Another leaked story to the press with no source, but yeah, don't be sceptical everyone.

It's a report of a finding with no confirmation. The neutral thing to do is suspend judgement until actual information is presented.

[biggytitbo]

Why would you be neutral when they overwhelming number of leaked stories to the press in the case have been bullshit, and the government have relentlessly lied and sun the story for 4 months? The rational approach isnt neutral to unsourced leaks to the press, its 'very skeptical'.

[Buelligan]

So to clarify, what alternatives are there? I'm trying to come up with all possible solutions and frankly none of them seem more likely.
- Red flag operation where the secret service poison British citizens to point the finger at Russia
- An unemployed couple decide to buy some Novichok on the black market
- The couple steal some Novichok from Porton Down where its just sitting around
- Someone from Porton Down (which in this scenario has Novichok) accidentally takes some Novichok out and mislays it and by a convoluted series of events the couple come across it.
- Its not actually Novichok and the whole incident is faked by the British

Have I missed any?

Sure, none of it makes sense no matter how you look at it, but the idea that two people may have picked up something in a park is no less likely.

Maybe someone decides to poison the Skripals.  They know what perfume Julia uses or what cologne her father prefers (or both).  They exchange the perfume diffuser in her case or later, in her father's house, for an identical bottle, filled with nerve agent.  After the poisoning, they break back in and exchange the poisoned bottle(s) for the originals.  They toss the poisoned bottle(s) into some bushes as soon as they can.  Someone poor comes along and sees the expensive perfume just lying there, Chanel No5 or something, they take it home for their girlfriend.  They spray it on themselves.

[biggytitbo]

But the last official claim was that the Skripals were poisoned after someone smeared nerve agent gel on their door handle. No idea where the alleged perfume bottle comes into that.

[dontrunyoullfall]

Police are believed to have identified the suspected perpetrators of the Novichok attack on Russian former spy Sergei Skripal, it is being reported.


Officers think several Russians were involved in the attempted murder of the former double agent and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury and are looking for more than one suspect, the British-based news agency Press Association claims.

Case closed.

[Buelligan]

But the last official claim was that the Skripals were poisoned after someone smeared nerve agent gel on their door handle. No idea where the alleged perfume bottle comes into that.

If you were carrying a deadly nerve agent, you'd probably prefer to do it and administer it undiscovered, safely and discretely.  I'd argue that a perfume bottle would fulfill those needs whether you intended to spray it onto a door handle or let someone spray it on themselves.

[biggytitbo]

Thats why it needed multiple agents, one to carry the vaseline to smear on the handle, one to spray the deadly perfume on it, and another to chuck the evidence away in the park.

[Alberon]

Not sure why one person couldn't do all that, but it does point more to the actions of a state than a separate group or person.

The problem, again, is that we have not been given nearly enough information to have an informed opinion. I guess it's the Russians. Biggy guesses that it isn't.

No one outside the government and secret services knows.

[biggytitbo]

What would shed a lot of light on this is if we knew literally anything about what the hell Nick Bailey's role in all this was. Why was a senior detective at the scene of what at the time appeared to be a routine incident, and crucially - where was he poisoned? Door handle or perfume bottle?

[biggytitbo]

Not sure why one person couldn't do all that, but it does point more to the actions of a state than a separate group or person.

Why? They can afford Novichok but can't rustle up more than one person?


Anyway the interesting thing about this new leak is - who is behind it? If the police have identified some suspects why wouldn't they just say so themselves instead of leaking it anonymously to the press? Points more to another government or intelligence leaker to me, which invariably points to manipulation of the story.

[Pdine]

Why? They can afford Novichok but can't rustle up more than one person?


Anyway the interesting thing about this new leak is - who is behind it? If the police have identified some suspects why wouldn't they just say so themselves instead of leaking it anonymously to the press? Points more to another government or intelligence leaker to me, which invariably points to manipulation of the story.

...and the birth is complete, with no additional information required! Congratulations, it's another assumption!

[biggytitbo]

...and the birth is complete, with no additional information required! Congratulations, it's another assumption!

👍

[Pdine]

👍

Now he gets it!

[Paul Calf]

...and the birth is complete, with no additional information required! Congratulations, it's another assumption!

Mate, there really is no point.

[Pdine]

Mate, there really is no point.

Yeah... sad in a way though.

[Isnt Anything]

What would shed a lot of light on this is if we knew literally anything about what the hell Nick Bailey's role in all this was.

I thought we did know, via Craig Murray?, he was a Special Branch officer assigned to look after Skripal. It was on the previous thread.

Of course we dont know exactly why that was being done, although we can guess, but its not true to say that we dont know 'literally anything'.

[biggytitbo]

I thought we did know, via Craig Murray?, he was a Special Branch officer assigned to look after Skripal. It was on the previous thread.

Of course we dont know exactly why that was being done, although we can guess, but its not true to say that we dont know 'literally anything'.

That is just a theory though, albeit one that sounds fairly credible and explains the total media blackout. Obviously if that is true then the whole complexion of the thing changes anyway.