Brexit Discussion Thread number 3

[Replies From View]

Whilst I despair at biggy's simple Lexit predictions, i do think it is rather silly to say the Tories will tear up everyone's rights and make life shit for everyone.

They won't do it right in our faces - of course they won't.  They'll do it by stealth, the same way they have been dismantling the NHS in ways that they hope most people won't notice until it's too late.

Signing a trade deal with the US (you'll note biggy is still dodging this one) is going to involve a lot of pretty massive changes that the government will shift the blame for as well.  It's a wet dream for them, but they'll be crying crocodile tears the entire time.

[Huxleys Babkins]

Whilst I despair at biggy's simple Lexit predictions, i do think it is rather silly to say the Tories will tear up everyone's rights and make life shit for everyone.  Not because they wouldn't do that, they will, but people won't let them, unless you are suggesting the Tories are going to cancel elections from March 2019.

Brexit is still dumb

There's nothing to cancel.

The Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that unless the government call an early election (they won't) or elements of the Tory or DUP parties join/prompt a vote of no confidence in the government (they won't), we won't be going to the polls until 2022.

It'll be too late by then though. The Withdrawal Act allows the government to pass legislation relating to  replacing EU law with our own without it needing to pass through parliament. Even the Tory moderates won't be able to vote against anything because there will be no votes.

[greenman]

It's worth picking up on whether the EU really is 'neoliberal'. Something closer to ordoliberal, surely?

Otherwise we wouldn't have its emphasis on geographic redistribution (and hence all the guff about "sending money to Europe for nothing"), on marketisation of public services (but not the end of government involvement such services), on providing for common and strong standards for labour, goods and the flows of capital alike (including on the first of these, the development of the 'social pillar'), on 'antitrust' and competition law, on consumer protection (most recently in the form of GDPR), on unilateral reduction of trade barriers to developing nations, and so on.

That might still make it an obvious antagonist to anything approaching full-blooded socialism much of the time, but that doesn't make it 'neoliberal' in the way that - for example - the United States is, particularly in its foreign policy.

It also makes sense of why there are powerful forces pushing us towards Brexit. (Indeed, why these were and remain the most important architects of what the next steps are.)

You could perhaps argue that the EU acting as a force to maintain a neoliberal viewpoint is more about safety in numbers than specific policey, the belief that any deviation from that will only happen in the odd member state who will then face hostility in the fashion we saw with Greece.

[Replies From View]

It'll be too late by then though. The Withdrawal Act allows the government to pass legislation relating to  replacing EU law with our own without it needing to pass through parliament. Even the Tory moderates won't be able to vote against anything because there will be no votes.

TITBO POWER!!

[Zetetic]

Theresa May last night faced a Cabinet revolt after attempting to shore up support for her Brexit plans during an hour-and-a-half long conference call with her ministers.

Esther McVey, the Work and Pensions Secretary, is said to have told the Prime Minister that she was "devastated" by plans to extend the Brexit transition period in a bid to strike a deal with the EU.

Sajid Javid, the Home Secretary, warned the Prime Minister that there must be a time limit on her customs backstop amid concerns that it could leave Britain indefinitely tied to Brussels.

He is said to have directly asked the Prime Minister if she had "explicitly threatened the EU with no deal" amid mounting concerns that Mrs May is making too many concessions to secure a breakthrough.

...

More than a dozen ministers were involved in yesterday's conference call, some of whom were given less than 15 minutes notice before it took place.

A smaller group of ministers held a similar conference call with the Prime Minister on Saturday, during which several were left unconvinced by the Prime Minister's explanation of her plans.

"It raised more questions than answers," one source said. Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General who was hailed as the hero of the Conservative Party conference after introducing Mrs May, is understood to have raised significant concerns during that call about both the backstop and extending the transition.

Very odd to have voted for these people to try to lockdown our future relationship with the rest of the EU.

[Replies From View]

This is all looking disconcertingly like the making of Alien³ by this point.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

, i do think it is rather silly to say the Tories will tear up everyone's rights and make life shit for everyone.

If we take everyone - as used in that statement to mean 'ordinary people', then that's so far away from silly it's a bland and incontestable statement.

[Buelligan]

Yeah, they couldn't possibly go back on what's been agreed after Brexit day could they?

Oh...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/16/chequers-deal-undone-after-britain-leaves-eu-michael-gove-brexit

No, and of course, if there's one thing this whole appalling episode has taught us all, it's that our leaders are planners. 

It might seem like they're just sitting on their fat designer-clad arses, squabbling with each other, not giving a fuck for anything but gaining power for themselves.  This is just a paper-thin tale put about by muslim clerics and discontents who want to bring this great country to its knees. 

No, fact is, they're constantly thinking about the day-to-day well-being of ordinary citizens.  Citizens in places like Northern Ireland, right across swarms swathes of swarthy Europe (including Gibraltar), to the inner cities of the North, we are being thought about.  And cherished. 

We have nothing to fear, they have our best interests at heart at all times, even when they're on holiday or fucking their lovers whilst off their moobs on cake.  They care about us.  That's why they put themselves through all this.  That's why they're doing all of this planning but they want it to be a surprise, like Christmas.  A wonderful, wonderful, surprise!

*skips off laughing up the mountain to hide some semtex*

[Paul Calf]

Hmm. So, looking at the tweets from the #FBPE pillocks it seems that Saturday was a bit of a Corbyn Hate Event. Just shows that corrosive ignorance isn't unique to Brexiters.

[pancreas]

They are horrific. Fortunately they're getting short shrift from practically everyone else.

[Neville Chamberlain]

Hmm. So, looking at the tweets from the #FBPE pillocks it seems that Saturday was a bit of a Corbyn Hate Event. Just shows that corrosive ignorance isn't unique to Brexiters.

That's probably overstating it a bit. My parents were there, marching with a load of pro-Corbyn people.

Basically, don't read #FBPE tweets!

[Zetetic]

My impression is that some people were understandably annoyed by the time they got on Twitter, by the lack of Labour recognition and reinforcement of Labour's slightly deceitful position.

A bit excessively entitled and obviously feeding into and off existing attitudes to Corbyn, but... eh.

[Zetetic]

Meanwhile May prebriefing that she's going to announce that she still has no deal to the Commons as if this is something to be proud of.

"95% done"; refresh the table.of contents, remove watermark, or...?

[pancreas]

My impression is that some people were understandably annoyed by the time they got on Twitter, by the lack of Labour recognition and reinforcement of Labour's slightly deceitful position.

A bit excessively entitled and obviously feeding into and off existing attitudes to Corbyn, but... eh.

What would you have liked Labour to do, officially? Its policy at the moment is to argue for a general election, not a people's vote, while leaving that as an option. Also, in what way is its position slightly deceitful? I think there are many better targets on that count.

This is the Brexit motion from conference; I imagine you've read it.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Hmm. So, looking at the tweets from the #FBPE pillocks it seems that Saturday was a bit of a Corbyn Hate Event. Just shows that corrosive ignorance isn't unique to Brexiters.

I reckon a lot of #FBPE people are either Lib Dems or have Lib Dem sympathies.

[Replies From View]

My impression is that some people were understandably annoyed by the time they got on Twitter, by the lack of Labour recognition and reinforcement of Labour's slightly deceitful position.

A bit excessively entitled and obviously feeding into and off existing attitudes to Corbyn, but... eh.

What's the "slightly deceitful position"?

[Paul Calf]

I reckon a lot of #FBPE people are either Lib Dems or have Lib Dem sympathies.

I've already been blocked by at least two. I wasn't abusive or unpleasant, I just suggested they join the Labour Party.

Amazing.

[Paul Calf]

As for the anxiety about what will happen, it's inconceivable that May could renege on the unilateral guarantee now, even if you believe she is the wicked witch it makes no practical or political sense to do so. The reciprocal arrangements aren't up to us, they're up to the EU countries in question and you'd hope they'd do the right thing considering what the EU is meant to stand for.

I just realised.

Biggy is essentially saying "Trust the government."

The consequences of Brexit never seem to stop astounding me.

[Darles Chickens]

What's the "slightly deceitful position"?

My take on the "slightly deceitful position" is that Labour are still promising unicorns and not being straight with what they can really achieve, and people continue to buy into it unquestioningly.

For example:

Conference believes we need a relationship with the EU that guarantees full participation in the Single Market.

What does this mean: "full participation in the Single Market"?  That we remain inside the Single Market?  As far as I can discern, that doesn't appear to be Labour policy.  So, other than a Swiss-like deal whereby we basically follow all the rules of the Single Market without actually being in it (including freedom of movement, of course), it's an unachievable goal.  The "jobs first Brexit" is a vague slogan (thankfully, not in the composite motion) which means nothing.

I'm all for a General Election if it were reasonably certain that Labour could win (which, right now, still doesn't seem a given).  But even with Labour in power, I don't see how they expect to deliver any better a deal than the Tories, unless they are just not feeding us certain key facts, like they're aiming for a Norway-like deal.  Only Single Market and Customs Union membership can solve the Ireland / Northern Ireland border problem, frictionless movement of goods to save jobs, and so on.  And we all know that it'd be better in this instance to stay an EU member, though if the country has to take a hit to preserve some perceived notion of "democracy", I guess that's the best way.

[Zetetic]

What would you have liked Labour to do, officially?

Me (officiously)? Nothing different, in deference to pragmatism.

I think the position is a bit deceitful insofar as its suggestions for a deal verge, at least, on the incoherent.

You're right that there are better things to spend one's energy on.

[pancreas]

I suppose they are conspicuously avoiding saying 'retaining freedom of movement, if necessary'. I'll give you that.

[Buelligan]

I don't think it's deceitful.  They're politicians treading a fine line through a crowd made up of a heady combination of copper-bottomed morons who decide things on the basis of feelings they once had but believe and are constantly told, that those random decisions, once made, are more enduring and valid than the Word of God. 

Morons being herded by truly evil self-seeking free-market right-wing manipulators (who will throw the morons under the £350M bus at the drop of a chapeau), the Great Free British Press (owned and controlled by international oligarch gangsters), all the arms manufacturers and retailers on the face of the Earth, The BBC, butt-hurt Europhiles who are worried about their gites and don't understand disappointment because they're middle class but they're VERY UPSET INDEED, the Israeli government, the Blairosphere's PLP spunk bubble and looking very relaxed, Adolf Hitler, on vibes. Nice!

[Bhazor]

To me the Corbyn hate comes from the scenario of what it would be like if during the million strong anti Iraq war march the opposition party leader stepped out and said "Yes we hear you're cries! We promise that if you elect us... well we'll still go to war but it'll be a kinder and gentler one where no one gets hurt and everyone gets what they want! I mean we'll still be going to war we can't pull out of that, I mean have you seen the paper work? LOL its like dude could it get any more confusing?!? Nope the paperwork's already at the post office. So anyway vote for us and we'll keep doing exactly what this whole protest is about! But caringly."

[Huxleys Babkins]

Labour's position on Brexit is just as disingenuous and cynical as May's. If they were to take their proposed "deal" to Brussels, it'd be rejected just as Chequers was. It's a perfectly reasonable position to support Labour's domestic policy but to be against the leadership's handling of Brexit.

We call out the Tories for using dishonesty to win votes, we should be as comfortable holding Labour to the same standard.

[Buelligan]

What is their proposed deal?

Was Chequers rejected by the EU?

[pancreas]

I think in fact, Labour's position is very simple. It's Brexit In Name Only, but they'll need some useful rhetoric to say that there will be immigration controls, even if there actually won't be. People will get their blue passports and that would be the end of it—for now. Labour would surely not admit this, and continue to be vague on their precise negotiating strategy in the putative general election they want, but in my view, that's what they'd actually go to the EU with. And if that happened, I think they would get what they wanted, without a doubt.

[Huxleys Babkins]

What is their proposed deal?

Creation of a bespoke customs union and full frictionless access to the single market but no freedom of movement of labour.

It's something they can never deliver but conveniently demonises migrants for votes, just like the Tories do. Just like UKIP does.

[Paul Calf]

I'm heartily fucking sick of the word 'deal'. It's such a lame, selfish, Apprentice-brained word to cover European unity, culture and society and the continuation of a project that's seen Europe co-exist in peace and relative prosperity for the entire lifetimes of most people who are alive today.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Scottish Conservatives could vote down a Brexit deal if it included extending the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP).

The policy sets out fishing rules across the EU to manage fish stocks and fleets by setting quotas.

Moray MP Douglas Ross said Scotland's 13 Conservative MPs would not support a deal that included staying part of the CFP beyond 2020.

His concerns follow indications that the policy could be extended to allow more time for a final Brexit deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45928734

[Buelligan]

Creation of a bespoke customs union and full frictionless access to the single market but no freedom of movement of labour.

It's something they can never deliver but conveniently demonises migrants for votes, just like the Tories do. Just like UKIP does.

Not quite, Keir Starmer (gottleogear) said yesterday that he'd already taken soundings from key people within the EU on the matter of creating a customs union (outside of the standard EU customs union), frictionless borders, etc and had been given reason to believe that this was something they will run with. 

In essence, I think Labour's deal will make Britain poorer and more isolated than it is now, in the short term at least.  But it will not bring back war in NI, it will not mean people being made stateless and loaded into cattle trucks on either side of La Manche, it will not mean that Kent becomes a truck stop, it will mean that British businesses are able to continue selling in Europe easily and it will mean that this bus does not go over the fucking cliff in the end.  Which would be nice.