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March 28, 2024, 09:36:57 AM

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Brexit Discussion Thread number 3

Started by Dr Rock, July 22, 2018, 10:47:12 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

Alberon

I'm just imagining a Mad Max landscape where tribes living in the ruins of our cities are sacrificing virgins to the demon god Brexit.

Soup

I realise all these politics threads are sort of merging on the same topic right now, what with what's going on, but I thought this twitter thread from the BBC's Katya Adler was worth sharing:

Quote
1) Again and again I'm struck by the chasm in thinking between leading MP's on #Brexit and the viewpoint of EU leaders - and remember, if you want a deal, it takes two to tango


2) There is ZERO appetite or intention in EU circles to renegotiate this withdrawal deal


3) The EU would love the U.K. to remain a member of the club but if we're leaving - then this is the divorce deal


4) But this is not the future EU-U.K. trade deal. That will only be negotiated in detail after Brexit day. That trade deal can take any shape UK decides: v close relationship like EEA or far more distant one like Canada but each choice has consequences under EU law


5) The EU-U.K. customs relationship need never come to pass. It is in withdrawal agreement as a binding guarantee on N.Ireland and is designed to be superseded by a new EU-U.K. trade deal


6) The reason that customs relationship is U.K.-wide is because that's what the PM wanted, not EU. If U.K. government never wants to trigger the backstop it can choose to extend the transition period instead in order to finalise the new trade deal


7) Though that of course has consequences too: you may not like the UK-wide customs backstop but transition means ongoing freedom of movement and payments into EU budget


8) If the U.K. parliament rejects this divorce deal, the EU is not mindful to renegotiate under the same conditions. But it will likely extend article 50 if there is a general election or a second referendum

9) Why? Because a) the EU wants to avoid a no deal scenario and b) it would love the U.K. to just change its mind and stay in club. Macron, Tusk et al convinced Brexit is lose lose for both sides

10) But wanting to avoid no deal doesnt automatically lead to EU openness to renegotiating this exit deal. If the U.K. is leaving, EU leaders want to close this chapter. They feel have enough other uncertainty on plate with Trump, Putin, political challenges in Poland, Italy etc

11) And while the current political Brexit turmoil is all-consuming in U.K. it is waaaaaaaaay down the running order of European news bulletins. Take the main evening news on France's Tf1 last night as an example

12) Main reason for that is because Europeans view Theresa May as their negotiating partner and she says the Brexit deal is done. Cabinet ministers, incl Brexit secretaries can come and go but she is still standing and sounding v determined

13) So EU leaders are putting their blinkers on and have cleared their diaries for 25 Nov when they intend to sit down with the PM and sign on dotted line of Brexit deal to formalise it

14) Donald Tusk says the Brexit summit will take place unless something 'extraordinary' happens. Eye-brow raising events in U.K. politics right now are clearly not extraordinary enough for him and other EU leaders to cancel .. yet

thugler

If any version of brexit was going to get through parliament (without a specific mandate from a vote) it would be this one that pleases neither side. And it's not, so surely 2nd ref is only way out.

rjd2

https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1063424951213064192

Ignoring Blair, name me a more loathsome element of his reign than Mr Campbell?

Jack Shaftoe

Boris seen having dinner with Farage last night.

Quotehttps://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1063413867563372544

... after which Farage tweeted:

QuoteFor the first time in months, I feel optimistic.

There is an opportunity to select a new leader who is a genuine Brexiteer.

This must be somebody with a bold vision for a clean Brexit and they would command huge support out in the country.

Hmm.

Howj Begg

Boris is a disaster politics opportunist. Of course he was always going to try and seize his moment here. Churchill in 1940 mate.

Paul Calf

Quote from: rjd2 on November 16, 2018, 06:35:28 PM
https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1063424951213064192

Ignoring Blair, name me a more loathsome element of his reign than Mr Campbell?

Mandy?

Quote...there is an opportunity to select a new leader...

All this democracy is making me giddy. Comments from our Brexit contingent?

mothman

Quote from: ajsmith2 on November 16, 2018, 09:04:34 AM
What's the chances that 'Brexit' will just be a curse word to later generations, as in 'he really Brexited it up' or 'Just Brexit off will you'? with most not knowing it's origin?

"Now, eat up all your vegetables, or the Brexiteer* will come and get you!"

*Not to be confused with the Biggydonk.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

QuoteWhat's the chances that 'Brexit' will just be a curse word to later generations, as in 'he really Brexited it up' or 'Just Brexit off will you'? with most not knowing it's origin?

Ahead of the curve: My partner and I already use it in day to day speech in that way.

George Oscar Bluth II

Has anyone considered that maybe the reason that almost the entirety of the British and European establishment was against this because it is stupid.

Alberon

Quote from: Jack Shaftoe on November 16, 2018, 07:39:38 PM
Boris seen having dinner with Farage last night.

... after which Farage tweeted:

QuoteFor the first time in months, I feel optimistic.

There is an opportunity to select a new leader who is a genuine Brexiteer.

This must be somebody with a bold vision for a clean Brexit and they would command huge support out in the country.

Hmm.

The irony being Boris is not a genuine Brexiteer, he doesn't have a bold vision for a clean Brexit and he wouldn't command huge support in the country.

Uncle TechTip

I read the first 60 pages before I could take no more. I was really keen to find out about citizens'rights. And it seems that for those of other EU nationalities living in host states, the deal is the best anyone could have hoped for. They and their dependents will be able to come and go as they please for the rest of their lives. They may have to register for a special status no later than 6 months after transition - but this will be easy and not subject to onerous requirements, it will be free or very cheap and might be in digital form.

To me, the deal for those in such circumstances looks good and must alleviate some of their concerns. I suppose they must worry that it could change in the future, but that would have to go through a legal process just as it would now. I presume this deal would land in each EU country's statute book.

The deal for the rest of us though is of course horrific and we lose all freedom of movement even though we didn't want to.

It's not very clear but it does seem to say that if you are in a host state at end of transition you will earn the status, so will we see a large group of people moving away for a short time just to get it?



Sebastian Cobb

Here's brexiteer Nadine Dorries complaining we won't have any MEP's after brexit.

https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1063843376133484544?s=19

Thick as mince.

king_tubby


Metropolitan, socialist, facist technocrats - careful which side you choose guys!

https://twitter.com/robittybobnob/status/1063578175362539520

Cuellar

Can't believe that's actually real.

How on earth is Dorries a real MP

Shoulders?-Stomach!


Sebastian Cobb

Quote from: Cuellar on November 18, 2018, 08:05:59 PM
Can't believe that's actually real.

How on earth is Dorries a real MP

I mean her constituents must be thick as fuck as well?

Howj Begg

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/18/brexit-delusional-conmen-britain-never-never-land-eu

QuoteWhat Brexiters say about the British present deserves more attention. Where once there was a ludicrous declinism seriously underestimating British power, now a daft revivalism seems to be at the core of buccaneering Brexiter thinking.

They promise a global Britain, a global champion of free trade, a global innovation hub, a military power even in the South China Sea (but with low immigration). They pretend this already exists or is latent, as a leftover from before 1973, or as a product of the Thatcher revolution. This, too, is delusional, not least because there is no national British inventive effort, nor British national industry, nor even a national arms industry.

Brexit is not a portentous destiny that overhangs our politics. It is a mess of irreconcilable nostalgias. We shouldn't grant to the Brexiters their own argument that they are somehow more in tune with the essence of Britishness as experienced through history, which we risk doing if we think they are helped by ghosts from the past. It is not a reflection on the realities of British life, of the present or of the past. It's a very local phenomenon, which even if carried through, would barely register at European, much less global level. For the only power Brexiters have is to make us poorer, to inflict self-harm on the economy, and to damage further what little reputation British politicians have. Delusional as well as deluding, these banana-monarchy conmen and conduits for dark money want to trap us in a historicised never-never land.

But as reality bites, cloth will be cut to size, delusions dispatched, and the huffing and puffing will end. Brexit cannot in reality really happen. The explaining of realities will have to begin – that our productivity is low and stagnant, our health outcomes not the best, our people not the best educated or most enterprising, our entrepreneurs hardly the most important of the age. Any real politics of improvement will recognise we are not in the Premier League but in the lower divisions, and that football long ceased to be a game foreigners did not play.

garnish

Quote from: Sebastian Cobb on November 18, 2018, 08:36:43 PM
I mean her constituents must be thick as fuck as well?

Not everyone lives on Twitter.  In fact, if a local paper in her constituency picked it up, they'd probably have to explain what to read in what order to help their readers make any sense of it.

Don't worry everyone, Boris Johnson's got it all figured out!

Quote from: Daily Mail
1 Jettison decision for European Court of Justice to have jurisdiction over the UK/EU withdrawal agreement.

2 Scrap the Northern Ireland backstop. Instead, both sides should simply commit to avoiding a hard border in Northern Ireland and find the solution later.

3 Appoint a 'No Deal' minister who will 'accelerate our preparations to exit on World Trade Organisation terms'

4 Pursue a free-trade deal on Super-Canada lines.

5 Withhold at least half of the £39 billion until that deal has been agreed.

6 Insist that our Government finally gets behind Brexit, with 'enthusiasm and belief - all of which have been woefully lacking'.

All this time we thought Northern Ireland was going to be a problem, and we didn't realise we should just 'commit to avoiding a hard border' and 'find the solution later'!  And he's got the problem of the divided Tories sorted out too!  He just has to 'insist' that the Government gets behind Brexit with 'enthusiasm and belief'.  Maddening isn't it when you realise the solution was under your nose all along!

I hope this intellectual heavyweight finally gets the recognition he deserves and leads the country to greatness as the next PM!

George Oscar Bluth II

That is absolutely superb. Also quite like "Super Canada" as a trade model.

Everyone likes the country of Canada right? Well put the word "super" in front of it and you're sure to have an extremely popular deal!

Fambo Number Mive

QuoteAppoint a 'No Deal' minister who will 'accelerate our preparations to exit on World Trade Organisation terms

How would that work alongside the Brexit Secretary?

Do you reckon Johnson would like to be the "No deal" minister?

How would any of that work?  They were saying a month ago that it was already too late to be preparing for no deal.

The problem with Johnson is he just thinks he can say a bunch of words with authority and confidence, and that's good enough. I tried that trick once when faced with an exam essay question at university on a subject I hadn't studied enough. Surprisingly enough they saw through my ruse and awarded me zero.

Still, Super-Canada eh!

Captain Z

"We are confident of securing excellent deals under World Trade Organisation rules. In fact, one of our team is on their way to the World Trade Centre right now."

The real problem with Johnson's plan is that it's the plan you'd make if Brexit were the other way around; If the EU 27 had voted to kick us out against our will and we were trying to protect ourselves and be as difficult as possible on the way out.

BlodwynPig

Quote from: Captain Z on November 19, 2018, 11:04:06 AM
"We are confident of securing excellent deals under World Trade Organisation rules. In fact, one of our team is on their way to the World Trade Centre right now."

Big laughs

BlodwynPig

Quote from: Darles Chickens on November 19, 2018, 10:41:09 AM
How would any of that work?  They were saying a month ago that it was already too late to be preparing for no deal.

The problem with Johnson is he just thinks he can say a bunch of words with authority and confidence, and that's good enough. I tried that trick once when faced with an exam essay question at university on a subject I hadn't studied enough. Surprisingly enough they saw through my ruse and awarded me zero.

Still, Super-Canada eh!

If it means I don't have to leave super Canada, I'm in.