Brazil elections

[dr beat]

It's not looking good.

[ZoyzaSorris]

Hopefully it will go to a runoff though right, in which a Bolsanaro win is far from guaranteed?

Crazy how fucked up and undemocratic the system has been to disallow Lula.

[jobotic]

Huge swathes of the world voting for fascism. Just horrific.

[dr beat]

I'm worried. Some of the initial local results suggest that Bolsonaro might win in the 1st round.

[honeychile]

One of Brazil's most prominent political journalists, Ricardo Noblat, is now reporting that presidential exit polls (which are due out in about 40 minutes) will suggest a first round victory for the far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro.

    Blog do Noblat (@BlogdoNoblat)

    A pesquisa Ibope de boca urna deverá confirmar a eleição de Bolsonaro em primeiro turno. pic.twitter.com/Sic9GYpyHF
    October 7, 2018

This is fucking terrifying. If he's even within two or three points of a first-round victory, it suggests any run-off could be a formality.

[honeychile]

Exit poll released:

Exit poll – Bolsonaro wins 45% of the vote

Exit poll results have just been released, they give Bolsonaro 45% of the vote, meaning he is short of an outright first round victory and there will be a second round of voting on 28 October.

---

@tomphillipsin

EXIT POLLS ARE OUT: BOLSONARO 45%, HADDAD 28%, CIRO 14%. THERE WILL BE A SECOND ROUND ON 28 OCTOBER.

That's still crappy, but closer to what the opinion polls were saying and hopefully three weeks will be enough to galvanise turnout for Haddad.

Been stung by exit polls too many times to believe it's true yet though...

[Urinal Cake]

Huge swathes of the world voting for fascism. Just horrific.

Alt-right you mean.

[ZoyzaSorris]

Fascinating following it via the Guardian live blog. You can tell the Brazil situation puts them in a real bind. Obviously the far-right racist, sexist and homophobe Bolsanero represents the antithesis of all the identity politics that they have been co-opting and exploiting to distract from their fundamentally deeply reactionary pro-establishment core, so they can't outright support him. But the shady fucks who run the foreign policy side of the Guardian would prefer a Bolsanero government to any shade of left-wing one, and are struggling to completely hide that clear position. They seem to keep approvingly quoting a fellow called Brian Winters from the typically Orwellian-monikered Americas Quarterly which is a hard-right neoliberal Wall Street lobbyist front of a publication set up by Kennedy to fight the rise of left-wing parties in latin america.

Expect an extremely lukewarm endorsement of the Workers Party candidate predicated on concern trolling about him having to condemn Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua and tack far tot the centre (ie abandon any left-wing policies).

This still doesnt look good but abstentions and spoiled ballots were extremely high so there is a buffer zone to pull this back. One hopes that everyone who was going to vote for Bolsanero already has. Interesting that his vote correlates very closely to the proportion of 'brancos' (whites) in the country.

[greenman]

Fascinating following it via the Guardian live blog. You can tell the Brazil situation puts them in a real bind. Obviously the far-right racist, sexist and homophobe Bolsanero represents the antithesis of all the identity politics that they have been co-opting and exploiting to distract from their fundamentally deeply reactionary pro-establishment core, so they can't outright support him. But the shady fucks who run the foreign policy side of the Guardian would prefer a Bolsanero government to any shade of left-wing one, and are struggling to completely hide that clear position. They seem to keep approvingly quoting a fellow called Brian Winters from the typically Orwellian-monikered Americas Quarterly which is a hard-right neoliberal Wall Street lobbyist front of a publication set up by Kennedy to fight the rise of left-wing parties in latin america.

Expect an extremely lukewarm endorsement of the Workers Party candidate predicated on concern trolling about him having to condemn Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua and tack far tot the centre (ie abandon any left-wing policies).

This still doesnt look good but abstentions and spoiled ballots were extremely high so there is a buffer zone to pull this back. One hopes that everyone who was going to vote for Bolsanero already has. Interesting that his vote correlates very closely to the proportion of 'brancos' (whites) in the country.

Seems like yet another obvious examples of the establishments attacks of anything mildly left wing being potentially responsible for driving people into the arms of the far right instead, we've seen it so many times now I think the obvious conclusion is that its deliberate.

[jobotic]

I expect Bannon has more of a role in this than The Guardian.

[steveh]

There have been reports that a big part of it has been the evangelical churches pushing people to vote for the far-right. The Brazilian ones seem even more nakedly commercial and even more authoritarian in style than their US counterparts if that's possible.

[bgmnts]

I sometimes speak to this lovely Brazilian girl, about 18 of 19. Very sweet and nice but all in favour of Balsamic.

Makes me a bit mental.

[ZoyzaSorris]

Does seem exceedingly bizarre, given the guy's extremely well-documented public record, that he has got such support.
And yes I know its BolsonAro, not BolsanEro as some idiot with my name kept saying.

[jobotic]

It's not just the presidential elections.

https://theintercept.com/2018/10/08/brazils-bolsonaro-led-far-right-wins-a-victory-far-more-sweeping-and-dangerous-than-anyone-predicted-its-lessons-are-global/

[canadagoose]

The hell is wrong with people as of late? Especially white people, the flabby-faced gammon cunts. Always us lot with the fascism and the supremacist bullshit.

[græskar]

It's all deeply depressing

[Urinal Cake]

Simple solutions.
Too much crime, just kill the criminals.
Too much corruption, get rid of all the establishment politicians.

The national identity thing is probably to do with old and religious people.

I think the left have been far too kind, expecting better angels of people's nature.

[ZoyzaSorris]

Its the extremely establishment people claiming to be anti-establishment that I find hard to understand, in terms of its plausibility to even the terminally simple.

[græskar]

I just hope the broadly understood establishment takes a fucking long hard look at itself before we're all slaughtered in a mass blood bath. On the other hand, a new dark age of humanity would mean no more make-up tutorials, so swings and roundabouts

[Urinal Cake]

It's relative. Bolsanaro has been around a long time but on the fringes so he and his critiques have been around. Some of it may be even right.

[dr beat]

Looking worse now

[shh]

probably. but the worst he's done so far is confined to language. His mainstream predecessors managed to say 'the right things' while also running the country as their own fiefdom and tanking the economy, so let's see.

[canadagoose]

probably. but the worst he's done so far is confined to language.

Well, I'm sure giving him control of an entire country will end well.

[neardark]

It feels like the human race is too stupid to learn from any of its mistakes.

[Urinal Cake]

Super Hans is right- you can't trust people.

Bolsanaro hasn't just said words he's put numbers to those words. A few years ago he said if the military regime killed 30,000 more left-wing people- unionists, students etc Brazil would be a much better place. Trump is someone who wants to play soldier. Bolsanaro is a soldier and is old enough to remember when they ran things.
At least with Trump there's a vagueness his supporters hide behind.

The irony is that part of his success is due to corruption of the left but Bolsanaro used government money to pay his wife 3 times the amount her job market rate should've been paid.

[Mr_Simnock]

It's not looking good.

for Corbyn

[Hundhoon]

Brazil/Venezuela relations will be interesting to say the least, the boarder will be tense, jesus.

[Pearly-Dewdrops Drops]

Seems like another example of a global phenomenon the corporate media won't discuss for obvious reasons, which is that when the entire media is controlled by right-wing corporate lunatics you get people voting for right-wing lunatics.

My understanding is that Brazil is even worse than the US in this respect.

[greenman]

I just hope the broadly understood establishment takes a fucking long hard look at itself before we're all slaughtered in a mass blood bath. On the other hand, a new dark age of humanity would mean no more make-up tutorials, so swings and roundabouts

I would guess the issue is that because a lot of these so called anti establishment types on the right are actually pretty establishment on fundamental issues its that much easier for them to rise and gain support, those at the top of the tree know their status isnt in much danger from them.

[Paul Calf]

Happens every time. A crisis happens and the urban and rural wealthy chuck in their lot with the ones who promise to keep order and let them keep their money.

Sanders/Corbyn is never the solution until it's the last option.