Author Topic: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long  (Read 112130 times)

Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1140 on: January 12, 2019, 09:50:09 AM »
By comparison I suspect Labour would be negotiating from a clear position

Erm.  Yeah....

Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1141 on: January 12, 2019, 11:27:44 AM »
Not checked in for a while..........


Its been overdrive in the media kicking Corbyn, but next week reality will catch up with them all when FINALLY May has to make her move.  I see in some areas they are starting to try and re-inflate Johnson as the incoming replacement.

Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1142 on: January 12, 2019, 01:40:45 PM »
Article by Eddie Marsan in the New European. It's all over for Corbynski

BlodwynPig

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1143 on: January 12, 2019, 01:54:07 PM »
ah well, he had a good run.

Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1144 on: January 12, 2019, 02:32:52 PM »
Erm.  Yeah....

Hell of a lot clearer than May thus far.

greencalx

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1145 on: January 12, 2019, 10:48:00 PM »
Just seen some Corbyn/IRA stuff on my twatstream for the first time in a while. Makes me think people are expecting an election campaign...

Shoulders?-Stomach!

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1146 on: January 13, 2019, 08:10:14 AM »
Just seen some Corbyn/IRA stuff on my twatstream for the first time in a while. Makes me think people are expecting an election campaign...

If they want to bring that one on again, they can do, it was woefully unsuccessful.

If we do have an election I predict the same OTT character assassination that instead produces skepticism in the public of the media instead of with Corbyn, when people presented with the kindly geography teacher in front of them.

KennyMonster

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1147 on: January 13, 2019, 09:42:00 AM »
Just seen some Corbyn/IRA stuff on my twatstream for the first time in a while. Makes me think people are expecting an election campaign...

May trying to pretend the Tories are going to save the NHS and care about workers rights all of a sudden last week.

Plus social media reports saying they've had out of the blue leaflets through their door from the Tories too.

Yep, looks likely.

Trouble is I've got a feeling that even if successful Corbyn will get even more shit from all sides, and the smears may be sinking in.
Mrs Monster revealed to me yesterday that she thought Corbyn was an advocate for leave in the referendum and that disgruntled members are leaving the party in their droves, seemingly this has been from a diet of Guardian headlines and Tweets.


Paul Calf

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1148 on: January 13, 2019, 10:32:02 AM »
If they want to bring that one on again, they can do, it was woefully unsuccessful.

If we do have an election I predict the same OTT character assassination that instead produces skepticism in the public of the media instead of with Corbyn, when people presented with the kindly geography teacher in front of them.

Each line of attack is calculated to resonate with a given cohort of potential Labour voters, and it seems that each is effective in its own way. Why did the Tories stay in power after 2012? Why are the polls so stubbornly refusing to swing hard for Labour? These blackmailers and fearmongers know what they're doing, and will continue to push the buttons that worked so well last time.

Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1149 on: January 13, 2019, 10:48:28 AM »
If the last GE is any guide (and it probably isn't) Corbyn's popularity seemed to increase after the leaders' TV interviews, where he got Labour's manifesto across well and May just mumbled some vague soundbites.
For a lot of casual voters it would have been the first time they'd actually heard him speak about policies, rather than base their opinion on him on nonsense shared on social media.
I think that night helped him immensely, and damaged May.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1150 on: January 13, 2019, 10:50:42 AM »
The polls haven't stubbornly refused to move though, it depends where you draw the line

The election campaign swung the polls towards Labour by 15-20% in the space of a month.

It was obvious Labour would struggle to keep on building a lead given the forces massed against them.

Better to start the next election polling 38-40% than having to recover ground from 28-30%. As stated above, campaigning is our strong suit and we can learn from what went wrong last time (Labour party HQ hopefully can, anyway)

Also what may kill the Tories is apathy and low turnout for their base, which isn't as represented in polling.

If you believe in a gloomier outlook that's fine, but we are the people responsible for ensuring the best result possible - us, our generation, everyone on the left, now. We still may not win, but a naysaying mindset guarantees we won't.

Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1151 on: January 13, 2019, 11:12:41 AM »
The polls haven't stubbornly refused to move though, it depends where you draw the line

Yes this is true and another the real reason the polls have not moved is because for now Brexit is main game in town.  If people on the remain side could think on this
 a bit more.  Brexit has appealed to many would be Labour supporters because they see it as way of improving the value of their labour.  A general election allows for Labour to make their case that we can stay in the EU and improve things........that is a challenge and is not easy.

Hmmm be interesting to see if there is a GE or not is it possible ERG types will vote the government out in a bid to replace May and go full tilt right to win the election and Brexit?  Otherwise it is hard to see how a GE would come about.  Much more likely the VONC is called it losing and Labour then start pursuing a second referendum

greencalx

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1152 on: January 13, 2019, 11:52:03 AM »
I agree it's more likely a VoNC will be lost - not a single Tory would vote against their own government in such a vote, and unless May's deal goes through, the DUP will stay onside. About the only way I can see a VoNC going through is if the WA is accepted somehow - maybe on a second attempt, with concessions in various areas, but not on the backstop, which would have the DUP turning (maybe; I mean, they've only said that's what they would do...). But now I'm not so sure we'll get that far. If Corbyn, as reported, brings the VoNC on Tuesday / Wednesday, and loses, then I guess the only place left to go is down the 2nd ref path.

All the professional commentators are adamant that Corbyn absolutely does not want a 2nd ref (but usually without engaging their brains and thinking for 4 seconds about why it's actually a really terrible idea; interestingly my mostly centrist colleagues are of one mind when it comes to the folly of a 2nd ref), but I suspect that him performing an action that makes it an inevitability would not change their view that Corbyn is anti-european, anti-democracy, yadda, yadda.

Zetetic

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1153 on: January 13, 2019, 11:55:19 AM »
I can't work out how much control over direction (or the lack of it) the Government will still have after Tuesday(/Wednesday).

(And whether that's sort-of up to Bercow trying to make sense of whatever 600-odd MPs are pushing for.)

greencalx

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1154 on: January 13, 2019, 11:57:40 AM »
I can't work out how much control over direction (or the lack of it) the Government will still have after Tuesday(/Wednesday).

(And whether that's sort-of up to Bercow trying to make sense of whatever 600-odd MPs are pushing for.)

Shit, yes, I forgot about Bercow. If No 10 is still adamant that there can only be one amendment to Plan B, and Bercow gets to select that amendment (is that right?), then I guess he'll pretty much be running the show...

(ETA: another parliamentary procedural point I'm unclear on: is there any kind of a 'grace period' following a parliamentary VoNC in which another one cannot be called? Like the one-year exclusion period that May is currently enjoying wrt Tory leadership)

pancreas

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1155 on: January 13, 2019, 11:58:55 AM »
I don't know that No 10 gets to insist on anything.

Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1156 on: January 13, 2019, 11:59:37 AM »
Yes, the VoNC will probably be lost. But no confidence is an obvious fact at this stage. The government keep losing votes, they self-evidently don't command the confidence of the House. I wonder if Labour will be hoping to capitalise on the hypocrisy of the Tories voting confidence in a government they clearly don't have confidence in.

Zetetic

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1157 on: January 13, 2019, 12:01:18 PM »
another parliamentary procedural point I'm unclear on: is there any kind of a 'grace period' following a parliamentary VoNC in which another one cannot be called? Like the one-year exclusion period that May is currently enjoying wrt Tory leadership)
No, not really, AFAIK.

greencalx

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1158 on: January 13, 2019, 12:06:54 PM »
No, not really, AFAIK.

But presumably if a vote is tabled it doesn't have to be accepted: there must be something to stop multiple rapid-fire VonCs?

The reason I ask is that if it's lost now (by the opposition), but things go even further down the shitter in the next couple of weeks, then it may well be appropriate to have another one.

pancreas

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1159 on: January 13, 2019, 12:08:00 PM »
I assume it's at the discretion of the speaker to make time for it.

greencalx

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1160 on: January 13, 2019, 12:10:30 PM »
Thanks. And apologies for all the annoying questions about the details of parliamentary procedure. I guess when there's a big majority (which has been the case most of my life), and the government is basically never defeated, none of the constitutional subtleties are particularly relevant and have passed me by.

Zetetic

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1161 on: January 13, 2019, 12:14:32 PM »
It's baffling, I find - this page could do with a "How is the daily business determined?" or something (or it's there and I can't see it). Might be somewhere in the Standing Orders of the House of Commons?

Mostly the Government gets to timetable the business of the HoC. I've no idea really how the Speaker's role then interacts with that for things like this.

Possibly - Emergency debates.

(Edit: I appreciate that really a Parliament simply can't operate without a degree of cooperation and you can't formalise a lot of that. But I think you can still try to set out how it work in practice, when it does work and when it doesn't.)

Absorb the anus burn

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1162 on: January 13, 2019, 12:32:12 PM »
Didn't Baroness Lucrezia Thatcher have 8 Votes Of No Confidence fail before Callaghan was mortally wounded?

gib

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1163 on: January 13, 2019, 12:43:00 PM »
I don't know that No 10 gets to insist on anything.

On the radio this morning they seemed to be saying Bercow could choose as many of the amendments as he likes.

Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1164 on: January 13, 2019, 01:03:25 PM »
Not sure but I have a feeling you can call as many as you like.

Interestingly and much to Shelagh Fogartys lament, Ben Bradshaw paid some respect to Corbyn on Friday saying that he is actually upholding the policy decided at conference i.e. that there is a procedure that exhausts other possibilities before going for the second referendum.

This, I think, is most likely to happen...hence why perhaps Tory headbangers would prefer a GE as a means of controlling Brexit, ousting May and simply letting the clock run down for the remainder of any extension or use any mandate/majority formed by winning a GE to go hard Brexit.


greencalx

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1165 on: January 13, 2019, 01:34:45 PM »
Not sure but I have a feeling you can call as many as you like.

Interestingly and much to Shelagh Fogartys lament, Ben Bradshaw paid some respect to Corbyn on Friday saying that he is actually upholding the policy decided at conference i.e. that there is a procedure that exhausts other possibilities before going for the second referendum.

This, I think, is most likely to happen...hence why perhaps Tory headbangers would prefer a GE as a means of controlling Brexit, ousting May and simply letting the clock run down for the remainder of any extension or use any mandate/majority formed by winning a GE to go hard Brexit.

On the other hand if they can get No Deal on a 2nd ref ballot paper, there’s a reasonable chance they could convince people to vote for it. But that’s maybe a riskier strategy than a GE so not an easy call.

Ah, but I’m forgetting that the Tories could try and form a new government within the 14 day period following a VoNC. So that would be a way for the headbangers to get one of their own in charge. So maybe they might vote against after all...

Johnny Yesno

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1166 on: January 13, 2019, 02:21:57 PM »
Thanks. And apologies for all the annoying questions about the details of parliamentary procedure. I guess when there's a big majority (which has been the case most of my life), and the government is basically never defeated, none of the constitutional subtleties are particularly relevant and have passed me by.

Don't apologise for that. It looks like it's the only way we'll have the faintest idea what's going on.

Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1167 on: January 13, 2019, 03:02:09 PM »
Don't apologise for that. It looks like it's the only way we'll have the faintest idea what's going on.

Yeah I thought it was very pertinent an interesting discussion too Greencalx.

greencalx

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1168 on: January 13, 2019, 03:20:15 PM »
Thanks both... sometimes I feel like everyone else is an expert on these arcana and I’m just being a bit lazy not researching it properly. Anyway looks like it’s going to be an interesting few days for those of us who like the procedural / strategy aspects of these things. So far, my feeling is that Corbyn has handled this side of things fairly well - an early no confidence vote would, I suspect, have backfired in much the way the ERG’s attempted putsch did.


Johnny Yesno

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Re: Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long
« Reply #1169 on: January 13, 2019, 03:26:14 PM »
Thanks both... sometimes I feel like everyone else is an expert on these arcana and I’m just being a bit lazy not researching it properly.

Me too. Thanks for taking the bullet.