Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long

[StewartLeehaslethimselfgo]

The focus has got to be on pushing for article 50 extending, peoples vote can only come after that

[Mrs Wogans lemon drizzle]

The focus has got to be on pushing for article 50 extending, peoples vote can only come after that

Yup.

[Buelligan]

The focus has got to be on pushing for article 50 extending, peoples vote can only come after that

A general election, the electorate voting on all of the areas that affect Britain and choosing a team to negotiate Brexit, whose approach fits best with their hopes, would be far better for the UK than another referendum.  The war over what questions are asked, how they're phrased, how the votes are counted, would be unending.

A GE would be vastly better.

[StewartLeehaslethimselfgo]

A general election, the electorate voting on all of the areas that affect Britain and choosing a team to negotiate Brexit, whose approach fits best with their hopes, would be far better for the UK than another referendum.  The war over what questions are asked, how they're phrased, how the votes are counted, would be unending.

A GE would be vastly better.

I'd prefer a GE too but logically that needs Article 50 extending first too, theres simply no time left for anything other than May's new deal or No Deal without any extension

[Kelvin]

A "people's vote" will never, ever happen with the Tories in power. It would be political suicide for the leader and the party. A general election, and a Labour government, is the only slim chance of a second referendum. So that has to come first, if that's what you're after.

At this point, though, I think the only two likely outcomes are either a bunch of delays before a forced No Deal Brexit, or maybe May's deal (or something similarly shit) getting through when all other options and delays are exhausted and enough MP's blink facing the prospect of No Deal. I doubt the Tories will ever allow an election to happen, but I suppose it might if things get dragged out long enough, and the entire government is paralyzed for months with extensions that change nothing.     

[olliebean]

The focus has got to be on pushing for article 50 extending, peoples vote can only come after that

I don't think the EU will be willing to extend it for long enough to hold one unless the commitment to do so comes first.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

A "people's vote" will never, ever happen with the Tories in power. It would be political suicide for the leader and the party. A general election, and a Labour government, is the only slim chance of a second referendum. So that has to come first, if that's what you're after.

At this point, though, I think the only two likely outcomes are either a bunch of delays before a forced No Deal Brexit, or maybe May's deal (or something similarly shit) getting through when all other options and delays are exhausted and enough MP's blink facing the prospect of No Deal. I doubt the Tories will ever allow an election to happen, but I suppose it might if things get dragged out long enough, and the entire government is paralyzed for months with extensions that change nothing.     

But every single faction that voted against May's Deal apart from the ERG and DUP (which isn't enough anyway to get any deal through) is now forcing her to rule out No Deal as an option.

Therefore instead of May being able to blackmail MPs into accepting something like her deal, they are effectively handing May an ultimatum.

This therefore shifts the initiative to Corbyn. If May refuses and takes it to the wire, he can call a vote of no confidence nearer the deadline, and smoke out terrified Tory MPs who May has taken to the brink of crashing out of the EU and who would pull the trigger in that event on her government to avoid it happening.

And I got all the way through that without even mentioning a flipping People's Vote.

[Cursus]

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Probably such an obvious, direct lie that it could be reported to the regulator.

[Sherman Krank]

But every single faction that voted against May's Deal apart from the ERG and DUP (which isn't enough anyway to get any deal through) is now forcing her to rule out No Deal as an option.

Therefore instead of May being able to blackmail MPs into accepting something like her deal, they are effectively handing May an ultimatum.

"Are you saying ni to that old woman?"

This therefore shifts the initiative to Corbyn. If May refuses and takes it to the wire, he can call a vote of no confidence nearer the deadline, and smoke out terrified Tory MPs who May has taken to the brink of crashing out of the EU and who would pull the trigger in that event on her government to avoid it happening.

It seems fairly obvious now that in the list of things that terrify Tory MP's 'crashing out of the EU' is at most a distant second to 'Corbyn government'.

It seems more likely she will now just resume her can kicking antics and then a day or two before the deadline she'll bring her undead deal back to parliament at which point the Blairite wing of the PLP and the Tory remainers will collectively shit their pants and vote it through. 

[Kelvin]

But every single faction that voted against May's Deal apart from the ERG and DUP (which isn't enough anyway to get any deal through) is now forcing her to rule out No Deal as an option.

Therefore instead of May being able to blackmail MPs into accepting something like her deal, they are effectively handing May an ultimatum.

This therefore shifts the initiative to Corbyn. If May refuses and takes it to the wire, he can call a vote of no confidence nearer the deadline, and smoke out terrified Tory MPs who May has taken to the brink of crashing out of the EU and who would pull the trigger in that event on her government to avoid it happening.

And I got all the way through that without even mentioning a flipping People's Vote.

They all say no deal is unacceptable, but I think it's more likely they'll either run out of road, when the EU finally decides we're not getting any more time to drag our feet, or else they'll realise that their only real alternative to 'no deal' means folding and accepting her dreadful offer once time has run out.

I honestly think those two options are more likely than enough Tory MPs voting their own government into a GE, and drawing on their heads the wrath of their party and a portion of their core vote.

The biggest unknown is whether or not the Tories eventually decide to get rid of May in the hope it will unblock the situation. But even then, I only see a change of leader making a No Deal Brexit more likely (and intentional) not less.

[pancreas]

Wait till the Plan B gets amended, you worms.

A clear demand for a second ref cannot be ignored. And that's what I reckon it will be.

[Kelvin]

Wait till the Plan B gets amended, you worms.

A clear demand for a second ref cannot be ignored. And that's what I reckon it will be.

While the Tories are in power? You are absolutely mad if you think the Tories will ever allow their leader to hold a 2nd referendum.

Edit: assuming that 'remain' Is an option.

[pancreas]

Then the Tory party will split.

[pancreas]

Then the Tory party will split.

Actually let me revise that. Eventually there will be a VoNC which wins.

[gib]

Brilliant!

[Kelvin]

Actually let me revise that. Eventually there will be a VoNC which wins.

Approx 15-20 Tories would need to change position, yes? I suppose it's possible, with enough time and desperation. I just think most Tories risk losing more at an election than they (personally) will by seeing a No Deal Brexit. Especially if their core vote see their decision as an attempt to stop Brexit.

Maybe if it gets close enough, though, maybe it could get through by accident, with individuals not realising their change will lose them the vote.

[pancreas]

Funny you should use the phrase 'by accident'. It's exactly the phrase Nick Brown used when talking about the possibility of a GE.

[DrGreggles]

Approx 15-20 Tories would need to change position, yes?

10 to flip or 20 to abstain.

Would some be willing to fuck the party over to save their own arses though?

[pancreas]

That's one reason the Plan B is so important. If May shows bad faith, then people could be so upset as to do so, yes.

[greenman]

"Are you saying ni to that old woman?"
It seems fairly obvious now that in the list of things that terrify Tory MP's 'crashing out of the EU' is at most a distant second to 'Corbyn government'.

Honestly I think that's the central reality of politics as a whole since the 2017 GE, the whole establishment has been paralysed with fear of doing anything that might lead to a Corbyn government so as a result has done pretty much nothing.

[Kelvin]

10 to flip or 20 to abstain.

Would some be willing to fuck the party over to save their own arses though?

Hmm. With numbers like that, maybe it is possible - at least by accident, with a handful thinking it won't actually pass, but wanting to make a statement/apply pressure.

[Buelligan]

I think that's why Soubry stood up to wring out her onion again, being brave but fair, a little bit angry but only because she's been pushed so far, just before the VONC.  Signalling innit? 

Telling all the ones that are wavering that the apples are still green in Moscow.  Day will come when they fall though, thinking about letting the pigs into the orchard already.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Got to Love the fact that the People's Vote lot still tried to have a go at Corbyn for refusing to negotiate unless May called off No Deal, even when that is effectively every other opposition party's red lines as well.

Corbyn has got this one spot on.

[Buelligan]

He has.  Long may he run.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Got to Love the fact that the People's Vote lot still tried to have a go at Corbyn for refusing to negotiate unless May called off No Deal, even when that is effectively every other opposition party's red lines as well.

Corbyn has got this one spot on.

You'd think the FBPE people would be happy that Corbyn was trying to get No Deal off the table

[greencalx]

Got to Love the fact that the People's Vote lot still tried to have a go at Corbyn for refusing to negotiate unless May called off No Deal, even when that is effectively every other opposition party's red lines as well.

Yeah, I noticed that too. Don't see any opprobrium directed at Sturgeon from the FBPE crowd for basically taking the same stance as Corbyn.

I agree he made the right call - backed up in his speech by alluding to May reneging on an earlier pledge to hold the WA vote in December.

[jobotic]

You'd think the FBPE people would be happy that Corbyn was trying to get No Deal off the table

yeah you would. I am - it's the most important part of all of this.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

You'd think the FBPE people would be happy that Corbyn was trying to get No Deal off the table

Umunna just know feigning that he thinks Labour should speak to May unconditionally.

You voted against the deal and are leading the Peoples Vote campaign. You disingenuous piece of shit.

[greencalx]

It must be really frustrating for them that Corbyn is following the conference agreement to the letter.