Corbyn 22 Now But It Won't Be For Long

[idunnosomename]

peak washed-up beardy FBPE
https://twitter.com/MitchBenn/status/1098013613288247297

I mean Derek Hatton acts like a bit of a willy but still. calm down mate

[imitationleather]

peak washed-up beardy FBPE
https://twitter.com/MitchBenn/status/1098013613288247297

I mean Derek Hatton acts like a bit of a willy but still. calm down mate

Just be grateful Mitch didn't express his feelings on the matter in song-form.

[BlodwynPig]

I suspect the Corbyn project is dead now. Thank majority cunts of England. Will the last person to leave Great Britain, please burn it to the ground.

[Paul Calf]

Gone by Easter.

[ZoyzaSorris]

I suspect the Corbyn project is dead now. Thank majority cunts of England. Will the last person to leave Great Britain, please burn it to the ground.

Not at all. This is good. Just like the chicken coup.

[BlodwynPig]

Not at all. This is good. Just like the chicken coup.

For who. I do hope there are still millions of believers out there for when I return (to claim my rightful place at the bottom of the heap)

[ZoyzaSorris]

Well all the other times shit hitting the Corbyn fan has reached fever pitch in the media and on twatter and seemed incredibly depressing at the time (2015 leadership campaign, chicken coup and leadership campaign number 2, 2017 election campaign) it has ended up backfiring and making his opponents weaker. The fact that these nefarious forces have an almighty media war being waged on their behalf can't paper over their inherent weakness and critical incoherence for long. And then the real troublemakers will have all deselected themselves, saving a long and painful but otherwise necessary  process.

[BlodwynPig]

But Rachel Riley and Ollie Thick of It!!

[imitationleather]

Well all the other times shit hitting the Corbyn fan has reached fever pitch in the media and on twatter and seemed incredibly depressing at the time (2015 leadership campaign, chicken coup and leadership campaign number 2, 2017 election campaign) it has ended up backfiring and making his opponents weaker. The fact that these nefarious forces have an almighty media war being waged on their behalf can't paper over their inherent weakness and critical incoherence for long. And then the real troublemakers will have all deselected themselves, saving a long and painful but otherwise necessary  process.

I think you may be spot on. Also that these "decent MPs" (not my words Carol, the words of The Daily Mail) may not be appreciating that there's a queue of people ready to take their place as Labour candidates in the next General Election. These guys do not own the party, not even close.

Chukka is clearly a man who realised the career he'd mapped out for himself a decade or so ago had fallen to pieces and now is just in it for any attention and money that can be milked out of it while it lasts. A total political lightweight who'd be an embarrassment no matter which party he'd decided he had the best chance of making it to the top of and joined all those years ago.

Emma Kennedy apparently getting excited and inspired by all this is truly hilarious. I hope she does an Edinburgh Show about it.

[BlodwynPig]

I hope a frog headbutts her in a lift.

(Bring back Pre-2013 CaB)

[honeychile]

According to the MSN front page (yeah, i know), Derek Hatton is an MP now:



The YouGov poll which featured the Dinner Party showed Labour polling where we started the last general election campaign. This is after this whole propaganda campaign and the breakaway finally happening. I wouldn't write off the Dinner Party also peeling quite a lot of votes off wet or remainy Tories. I don't want to paint a picture of false optimism, but there are reasons not to be too downbeat.

Come the next GE campaign, Labour will (a) quite possibly be offering a second referendum, neutralising one of the main fucking points of the Dinner Party, but also having other policies to go with it; and (b) be able to attack these cunts on numerous fronts. A bunch of so-called moderate centrists who are happy to sit with Anna Soubry's romanticised austerity. A group who tolerates racism among their number with no consequence. Just a cursory dredging of their voting records.

And we have numbers. I really don't think many of our activist base will be going far, if anything this may rally them.

[BlodwynPig]

PM hopes for deal 'soon' - a positive spin next to a false story. BTW 'soon'? 1 week, 3 weeks, after March 29th?

[imitationleather]

If you take the "next GE campaign" to be in 2022, then a referendum on what exactly? Whether lollipop ladies are allowed to beat people to death?

The future of Brexit and A50 has, actually has, to be decided in March. I am anticipating an extension of A50, and the call of a GE when the Tories reckon they might win. Which will be within the year. Provided no other stupid Tory MPs defect.

Given the clusterfuck that was the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, an Act which so far has proven completely useless, would it have killed them to put in a bit about how if you resign from your party or cross the floor during those five years you are subject to a by-election? It might almost not seem like a total Cameronesque pile of nowt whatsoever if it had done one useful thing that people would have supported.

CHUKKA LATER THIS YEAR: I have held constructive talks with Mrs. May and have agreed to be her Chancellor of the Exchequer.

I'm still just about beneath the cut-off for moving to Canada. Yes!

[BlodwynPig]

If you take the "next GE campaign" to be in 2022, then a referendum on what exactly? Whether lollipop ladies are allowed to beat people to death?

The future of Brexit and A50 has, actually has, to be decided in March. I am anticipating an extension of A50, and the call of a GE when the Tories reckon they might win. Which will be within the year. Provided no other stupid Tory MPs defect.

Given the clusterfuck that was the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, an Act which so far has proven completely useless, would it have killed them to put in a bit about how if you resign from your party or cross the floor during those five years you are subject to a by-election? It might almost not seem like a total Cameronesque pile of nowt whatsoever if it had done one useful thing that people would have supported.

CHUKKA LATER THIS YEAR: I have held constructive talks with Mrs. May and have agreed to be her Chancellor of the Exchequer.

I'm still just about beneath the cut-off for moving to Canada. Yes!

I'm keeping the bed warm.

[honeychile]

If you take the "next GE campaign" to be in 2022, then a referendum on what exactly? Whether lollipop ladies are allowed to beat people to death?

Sorry to clarify - i don't take the next GE campaign to be 2022, and think there's a good chance it'll be before brexit is settled (A50 extension is likely). Regardless, if Labour supports a second ref whenever brexit reaches its final juncture, it will close that off as a meaningful line of attack from the Independents (though not the Tories) either as a prospective GE promise or retrospective blame - not that they wouldn't try the latter. Just think there's a good chance they'll end up UKIPing themselves by having Labour offer their central promise. Difference being that Labour is a basically rounded policy project, not a slogan on a sash worn by a skeleton.

[greenman]

Sorry to clarify - i don't take the next GE campaign to be 2022, and think there's a good chance it'll be before brexit is settled (A50 extension is likely). Regardless, if Labour supports a second ref whenever brexit reaches its final juncture, it will close that off as a meaningful line of attack from the Independents (though not the Tories) either as a prospective GE promise or retrospective blame - not that they wouldn't try the latter. Just think there's a good chance they'll end up UKIPing themselves by having Labour offer their central promise. Difference being that Labour is a basically rounded policy project, not a slogan on a sash worn by a skeleton.

I would hope as well we see more in the line of his calling for these individuals to stand down as MP's for re election a swell. Thus far I think Corbyn has been at an obvious disadvantage in that enemies within the party have been snipping at him but he's had to hold back any serious criticism of them for the sake of unity and to avoid being cast as a dictator. Now he has a target outside of labour I'd hope you'll see much harsher criticism, basically characterise it as the desperate attempts to revive broken new labour and that these people are standing sholder to sholder with austerity friendly Tories.

I'm hoping the planning behind this group had largely ignored this potential, gotten too used to the cosy situation of facing almost zero direct public criticism of themselves.

[Paul Calf]

None of which will be very widely reported. You can take all the wickets you want, but if the umpire isn't watching, it's not going to count for anything.

The Independent Group have put a massive stick into the wheel of left-wing progress and the situation offers nothing in mitigation of this setback.

[NoSleep]

Nobody said it would be easy.

[monkfromhavana]

The next GE will be called in the next month or so I think. Hence Chukka etc quitting, Watson's 'too soon' remark and them not registering as a political party. These cunts aren't doing it so they can sit on the sidelines until 2022 and let Labour bed in replacements.

[NoSleep]

I don't think TIG want an election soon. They would be decimated. In the Mirror article Shoulders posted in the Centrist Party thread they say as much.

Mr Leslie even predicted Jeremy Corbyn might push for a repeat of the no confidence vote he tried - and failed - to pass in January.

He told journalists: "Clearly you can imagine circumstances, because it's changing the numbers in terms of the government, that there might be some game playing by Jeremy Corbyn in terms of no confidence motions and all those things.

"We're quite alive to the fact that the Labour leadership are very much in the game playing mode.

"And I am in my own point of view not up for playing silly games any longer".

He added: "Therefore I am certainly not pre-disposed to having an election at this time."

And they will be voting for the Tories if that no-confidence vote is called.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/independent-group-mps-signal-wont-14027795

[Paul Calf]

I don't see how losing another confidence vote is going to help. If the Tigheads vote with the government- as they've indicated they will - they'll just say that it proves that they just want the best for the country, and what the country needs is stability to negotiate the best possible deal.

I don't know what strategy is required, but a no-con vote is off the table for now, I think.

[Buelligan]

I don't think TIG want an election soon. They would be decimated. In the Mirror article Shoulders posted in the Centrist Party thread they say as much.

And they will be voting for the Tories if that no-confidence vote is called.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/independent-group-mps-signal-wont-14027795

That's interesting, I'd say far from not playing silly games, it's exactly what they're doing.  Leslie is saying to the Labour leadership, we will not help you with a no confidence motion, therefore, you'll get no election, therefore, you'll have to explain why you're not pushing for a second referendum to all the FBPE bears of little brian who can't see a silly game when it's being played right under their noses.

[greencalx]

This post could equally belong in the Centrist thread, but I think the situation is less bleak than suggested upthread.

When the 2017 GE was called, Labour were 20 points behind in the polls. That YouGov poll puts the Tories 8 points ahead the day after a radical new anti-Corbyn group was announced, but before the Tory defection. This is one point higher than the lead reported by the same pollsters before all this shit kicked off.

Right now, TIG has high novelty value, no policies, and no criticism in the media. At the moment it can mean all things to all people, and maybe with evidence of a reasonable level of initial support, a few more people will jump on the bandwagon.

But there's plenty of time for things to backfire. Not supporting a vote of no confidence could be a tuition fees moment for them. When they've got three people who defected from the party of government, how can they then support that government in a vote?

I'm actually pissing myself here at their utter blandness and incompetence. After months of complaining about "lack of leadership" they set up a group that has no leadership. They say that MPs should answer to the electorate, but not to the point where they want to test that by supporting a general election or by-elections for their own seats. Their position on Brexit is even more ambiguous than Corbyn's. And so on. So many wide open goals, and now the Labour leadership can criticise them because they're no longer members.

I realise that a lot of this will be conveniently ignored/forgotten by the media, and that it will be a struggle to convince voters to stick with the Labour party. But I don't think it's going to be damaging in the long term. At some point, they're going to have to put some policies together. At which point it will be obvious that they're just a pale imitation of the Tories. Also, the question will at some point be asked who they would go into coalition with. To which the answer is clearly "no one" - because no-one will have them.

[greenman]

I suspect it might well turn out to be the Labour version of Brexit. In the past sniping at Corbyn could basically be all things to all people beyond his support but now their going to be increasingly tied down to individual policy's and increasingly open to direct attacks from Corbyn.

Honestly the idea of this being a joint Labour/Tory group to me just seems like a sign of those behind it being massively out of touch given the effect association with the Tories(of the supposedly modernate Cameron era) had on the Lib Dems.

[Paul Calf]

Doesn't matter, does it? If the IG have torpedoed hopes of a putative Corbyn government, their job is done. Literally nothing else matters.

[ZoyzaSorris]

But have they? Dont understand why you are such a wet fanny on all this. People here are making an argument that the auto-deselection of this bunch makes Corbyn stronger and I think Id agree.

[NoSleep]

Doesn't matter, does it? If the IG have torpedoed hopes of a putative Corbyn government, their job is done. Literally nothing else matters.

Let's continue to hope not, misery guts.

[Buelligan]

Certainly, having them outside will indicate, even to the slowest observer, that they may be grinding an axe every time they point a finger.  I also think people who, perhaps aren't that bright or maybe don't follow politics that much, even they can grasp the idea that MPs resigning the party loyalty on which they were elected and not resigning their seat to allow a byelection, looks a bit shonky and they don't like it.

Also, the joining with tories, or for tories, the shacking up with Labour, not a good look.  On the whole, I think they've shot their bolt (and it seems to have missed).

[Paul Calf]

But have they? Dont understand why you are such a wet fanny on all this. People here are making an argument that the auto-deselection of this bunch makes Corbyn stronger and I think Id agree.

Which also means that the Labour Party will, at the very least, need to spend time and energy fighting constituency elections against a massively well-funded private group with no accountability at all.

And there will be no general election. It's the electoral calculus that matters. Don't expect the unengaged in the marginals to become politically aware any time soon.

[Buelligan]

There will be a general election, maybe it won't be as soon as we'd hoped but it will come.  That much is sure.  Labour needs to and is, planning for that.  Having these disloyal people outside, not in, had to happen eventually, IMO, the longer we have before the next GE, the longer we have to prepare, raise funds, choose good candidates.  It's disappointing but it may end up giving us an advantage in the longer term.

Speaking of the politically disengaged, I think most Brits are now fully aware of the suffering brought about by tory cuts.  Dyed in the wool tories will draw a veil over it but even when they attempt to excuse it, you always hear the majority of ordinary people scorning their inadequate fig leaves.  The longer it goes on, the more obvious it becomes.  It would be great to stop it now, but if we can't at least we have that advantage.