Author Topic: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)  (Read 24102 times)

mothman

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Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« on: November 26, 2018, 09:23:36 AM »
I think we need one, really, don’t we? Let’s try to keep all the problem areas (Brexit, Corbyn, Biggy) out, shall we?

Still think MPs will bottle it. Saw one columnist today (Guardian twat Ancona) suggest the whips could use the threat of the revelation of sexual indiscretions to bring rebels into line...

pancreas

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2018, 09:39:35 AM »
I don't see it … The DUP, SNP, Lib Dems are against (bar one), I think near-enough all the LP is against, seeing as they are either remainers or virulent leavers who think it ties us to the ECJ etc. The RW of the LP are all staking their careers on #FPBE-type support, so they'll have to vote against to help the prospect of a second ref. Add to that a handful of Tory rebels from the ERG, plus Soubry and a few others, and I just can't see it getting through.

I think it would take a miracle right now.

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2018, 09:45:54 AM »
So if the EU have said yes, but Parliament will likely say no, May will either have to try to renegotiate a new deal or we have no deal? I can't imagine May being able to renegotiate a new deal.


pancreas

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2018, 09:47:35 AM »
I honestly think her best play would be to put the deal to a vote, with Remain on the ticket.

She's not going for a GE, surely.

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2018, 09:54:14 AM »
I reckon Caroline Flint will vote for the deal: https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/1066648712292773888

Shoulders?-Stomach!

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2018, 09:57:48 AM »
I actually think some Labour MPs will bottle it and some ERG people will vote for it through gritted teeth.

I think the plan must be to lose by a small but not insurmountable margin, bake-in some concessions/more fudge and then have a crack at it again.

Butchers Blind

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2018, 10:12:17 AM »
If you were up to your neck in shit and someone threw a bucket of sick over you, would you duck?

KennyMonster

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2018, 10:13:00 AM »
If a PM wants to go to war and parliament reject it, they can go to The COD to over rule parliament.

Can May go to The COD to over rule parliament in other matters such as this?

Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2018, 10:15:08 AM »
I'm just astounded how much she has screwed this up. A part of me thinks she is playing a long clever game but I don't think she's that clever. We had 2 years to sort this out and we end up at this mess? it's extraordinary.

I think it will get through what with the whipping and bribing.

biggytitbo

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #9 on: November 26, 2018, 10:15:40 AM »
I honestly think her best play would be to put the deal to a vote, with Remain on the ticket.

She's not going for a GE, surely.

If parliament rejects the deal, then its got to be that, a 2nd referendum, or 'no deal' hasn't it? What other options are there?

Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #10 on: November 26, 2018, 10:37:20 AM »
The threat of a 'no deal' might just get the EU back at the negotiating table, but then one might argue that we should have been threatening that during our negotiations.

biggytitbo

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #11 on: November 26, 2018, 10:49:38 AM »
I think that's possible, but not with May surely? She's invested everything into this deal so it would make no sense for her to be negotiating again if it fails.

Paul Calf

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #12 on: November 26, 2018, 10:57:32 AM »
The threat of a 'no deal' might just get the EU back at the negotiating table, but then one might argue that we should have been threatening that during our negotiations.

The EU is the world’s second-largest economy. May hasn’t bluffed no-deal because the EU would likely call it and Britain would sink even lower than it already has.

If you think that twice-downgrading of Britain’s credit rating, a 25% hit on sterling and slippage from 5th to 6th in world economy ranking is bad, bear in mind that that was just on the expectation of a soft Brexit.

No Deal would only benefit the vultures. The EU know that she’d never do it, and if her bluff was publicly called, she’d be entirely without any leverage at all.

biggytitbo

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #13 on: November 26, 2018, 11:03:50 AM »
'No deal' isnt really what would happen though, it would mean no overarching deal, but the various vested interests in the UK, EU and even third parties in other countries would ensure some interim agreements where put in place in individual areas. A fall off a cliff no deal where literally nothing is agreed at all is a spectre they are conjuring to try and strongarm us into their bodge job, or better still into just cancelling the whole thing.

Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #14 on: November 26, 2018, 11:05:10 AM »
Getting the thread back on topic; Nadine Dorries has suggested that 46 letters have been sent in. I presume others are waiting to see what happens with the vote. Or the chairman of the 1922 committee is a liar or just really forgetful.

Alberon

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #15 on: November 26, 2018, 11:10:48 AM »
The Tory rebel MPs (currently about two thirds of the parliamentary party) seem notoriously unable to write fucking letters. We’ve been here dozens of times over the last couple of weeks. Until the head of the 1922 committee calls a no confidence vote I’m not going to pay them any more attention.

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #16 on: November 26, 2018, 11:11:43 AM »
Does that include the letters that the MPs only want to count if they hit 48?

Owen Jones makes a good point on Twitter

Quote
Has your local MP said they won't vote for Theresa May's deal? That may mean they'll abstain, which could save the deal. Politely tweet them now and ask if they're voting against.

BlodwynPig

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #17 on: November 26, 2018, 12:29:02 PM »
I reckon Caroline Flint will vote for the deal: https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/1066648712292773888

This is what they are scared of

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The consequences are dire & a 2nd Ref will lead to far right resurgence, discord & distrust

Getting lynched by the mob.

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #18 on: November 26, 2018, 12:59:26 PM »
SDLP have called for Labour to vote for the deal.

Quote
We don’t think there is a good Brexit but if we are going to have one, let’s try and limit the damage to our communities and our businesses and our society here, that’s what the backstop does, we need to bank that backstop, it is our ultimate insurance policy.

I would appeal to people across the water who have a vote in two weeks’ time, particularly people in the Labour party who have a very keen interest in supporting our peace process and all the political progress we have had over the last 20 years, this is an opportunity to once again step in and protect the progress that you were involved in helping bring about.

It is absolutely essential and we are all saying it, we are saying it as a collective political majority, we are saying it as a civic society from across all the different sectors, and our communities are saying it as well, we need your help, we need your protection, we need you to vote for this deal.

In related Tory news, George Osborne now thinks the Tories were wrong to oppose ID cards.

Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #19 on: November 26, 2018, 01:04:36 PM »
SDLP have called for Labour to vote for the deal.

In related Tory news, George Osborne now thinks the Tories were wrong to oppose ID cards.

Yeah, if only they'd known that eight years later their only chance of staying in power was to play vulnerable sections of society off against each other. The ID cards would have made that so much easier.

pancreas

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #20 on: November 26, 2018, 01:05:19 PM »
SDLP have called for Labour to vote for the deal.

Unsurprising. They're probably as happy with it for the same reason Sinn Fein are, no?

biggytitbo

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #21 on: November 26, 2018, 01:17:49 PM »
I do wonder how much is theatre and posturing from people who already intend to vote for May's deal, but are positioning themselves as sceptics who agonised over their decision but after a great deal of thought reluctantly decided to do what they thought was best in the 'national interest'.


A lot of MPs fit into two categories on this a) they want all this over with so they can go back to some degree of business as usual, for themselves as much as the country b) they don't want to be seen as defying the will of the electorate


May's bodge alongside two weeks of firm 'persuasion' and media hysteria might be enough to do the job for them, but hopefully there will still enough angry people on both sides to defeat it.

BlodwynPig

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #22 on: November 26, 2018, 02:09:22 PM »
worrying to see, even on here, opinion drifting from "the deal will never pass" to "hopefully there will be enough anger to defeat it"...next step "we should embrace this deal  and herald this new era under our glorious leader Theresa May"

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #23 on: November 26, 2018, 02:22:52 PM »
I doubt many people here will change their view on what they think about Theresa May's Brexit deal. Even if she goes back to the EU I still think any deal Theresa May gets will be rubbish.

It's like if you asked the Prime Minister to arrange a birthday party for you, it would end up with bobbing for sprouts, face painting with only the colour purple and bare knuckle boxing.

Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #24 on: November 26, 2018, 02:27:40 PM »
Can I be the first to state that I think Brexit itself is a completely bollocks idea!

Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #25 on: November 26, 2018, 02:29:42 PM »
I doubt many people here will change their view on what they think about Theresa May's Brexit deal. Even if she goes back to the EU I still think any deal Theresa May gets will be rubbish.

It's like if you asked the Prime Minister to arrange a birthday party for you, it would end up with bobbing for sprouts, face painting with only the colour purple and bare knuckle boxing.

As long as Freedom of Movement remains an immovable red line and WTO most favoured nation rules are in place, this is as good as it can possibly ever be.

Paul Calf

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #26 on: November 26, 2018, 03:09:30 PM »
How many times...?

THIS ISN'T A TRADE DEAL OR ANYTHING LIKE IT. IT'S AN AGREEMENT ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHILE THE UK AND EU ARE NEGOTIATING A DEAL.

And it's not something that anyone should accept. It's shit as fuck.

Shit Good Nose

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #27 on: November 26, 2018, 03:15:19 PM »
This second referendum/"Peoples Vote" that keeps getting mentioned - apologies, I've not really been following it all too closely of late - should it come to pass and happen, will it actually reverse/cancel Brexit if the majority now voted to remain (which I think they would - out of everyone I know who voted leave, only one of them would vote the same way), or is it just an empty current opinion poll that will have no bearing on anything other than filling slow news days?

We've effectively cunted off and embarrassed ourselves as far as the rest of Europe are concerned anyway, I know.

Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #28 on: November 26, 2018, 03:19:24 PM »
If the result is to remain expect the leavers to start saying "yes, but it's only advisory. THAT'S WHAT YOU SAID BEFORE, TRAYTORS"

BlodwynPig

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #29 on: November 26, 2018, 03:23:50 PM »
Expect these kind of posters to start showing up in your neighbourhood