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Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)

Started by mothman, November 26, 2018, 09:23:36 AM

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Zetetic

Quote from: biggytitbo on November 27, 2018, 05:02:58 PM
that wouldnt be even closer to the remain position and thus even more pointless han Mays deal.
Although that points to the fundamental problem that overwhelmingly both Labour and the wider public want nothing actually within the remit of any arrangement with EU that isn't "closer to the remain position", with perhaps the exception of SENDING (some of) THE BUGGERS BACK.

Edit: Arguably from of the problems for a left-winger concerned by the economically 'liberal' excesses of the EU is that the more we draw into a more-Leave-y bespoke position the more that we'll be hoisted on greater emphasis by the EU on exactly the sort of things that we're concerned about (state aid, non-profit/state ownership in the context of public services, etc.)

Zetetic

Quote from: biggytitbo on November 27, 2018, 04:35:22 PM
That's Jeremy Corbyns plan isn't it?
Which depends on the Conservative party deciding that it'd like to give government a rest. Or to be overtaken by a remarkable degree of hubris.

Neither of which are impossible under the circumstances, I suppose.

Howj Begg

Quote from: Zetetic on November 27, 2018, 05:06:30 PM
Although that points to the fundamental problem that overwhelmingly both Labour and the wider public want nothing actually within the remit of any arrangement with EU that isn't "closer to the remain position", with perhaps the exception of SENDING (some of) THE BUGGERS BACK.

Precisely. I would love for Corbyn to make the case for immigrants, and in a far less prone-to-misinterpretation way than he did previously with that speech about wage undercutting, but barring that, he at least gets to turn the ball over to a new Remain campaign which can make that case, alongside all the other benefits of EU membership.

Cute that biggy still thinks Corbyn is actually a secret Brexiteer.

biggytitbo

'No deal' is then only way to actually leave the EU, draw a line under this toxic mess once and for all, have a political reset and make some fundamental decisions about what kind of country we want to be ourselves.


But were not going to be allowed to leave, that much is clear, so its either some kind of ersatz bodge job leave that gives the failed political establishment a fig leaf whilst not actually changing anthing or it's face up to reneging entirely on the vote and dealing with the terrible consequences for our political system.

biggytitbo

Quote from: Zetetic on November 27, 2018, 05:08:16 PM
Which depends on the Conservative party deciding that it'd like to give government a rest. Or to be overtaken by a remarkable degree of hubris.

Neither of which are impossible under the circumstances, I suppose.


It's no deal or election I think, so the latter. How is either may or any other Tory going to negotiate a deal with the EU that will pass parliament, if this one doesn't? I can't see any other option.

Peston reckons that Corbyn's possibly on his way to endorsing a new referendum if May loses the meaningful vote.

Take with a barrelful of Saxa as ever.

https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/2219151871742879

Quote from: Robert Peston on Facebook
According to senior Labour sources, Corbyn is close to agreeing that shortly (days) after the loss of the meaningful vote by May, he would formally make his party the champion of another referendum or People's Vote - on the basis that if there is no consensus in parliament on what comes next, the question has to go back to the people.

At this conjuncture, there might well be a clear parliamentary majority for such a referendum - with the choice between May's deal (as the only negotiated deal) and remaining in the EU - if the Tory MPs who currently say they back a plebiscite stick to their guns.

Edit: Howj Begg already mentioned it in one of the other May/Corbyn/Brexit threads.

How would Corbyn campaign though? He's ruled out supporting May's deal, he's ruled out no deal and he's repeatedly ruled out remaining in the EU.

He'd be pushing for a referendum in which he couldn't publicly support any of the options that could potentially be on the ballot.

biggytitbo

A referendum on a deal parliament just decided was a non starter?

So the question is what? Mays deal or no deal?

Paul Calf

Quote from: biggytitbo on November 27, 2018, 05:13:47 PM
'No deal' is then only way to actually leave the EU, draw a line under this toxic mess once and for all, have a political reset and make some fundamental decisions about what kind of country we want to be ourselves the US and China want us to be.

Come on, bigs. Cough up the AnCap subreddit you're getting this from.

biggytitbo

Can referenda have more than 2 choices?

- Mays deal that everyone thinks is shit and just got defeated in parliament
- No deal which will literally KILL US ALL
- Remain (but why should leave accept it if remain didn't the first? Best of 3?)

Anything else? you presumably can't put options like Norway or Canada if they haven't been agreed with the EU?

Zetetic

"Canada" wouldn't mean anything.

EEA membership might be possible as an option, as I suspect that this wouldn't be difficult to agree in principle with the EU. Arguably, however, that's missing the point that this is a transitional arrangement under review as well.

QuoteCan referenda have more than 2 choices?
Referendums can, certainly. Although you'd probably want to use one of those runoff voting systems that the English apparently despise.

Howj Begg

Quote from: Huxleys Babkins on November 27, 2018, 05:23:19 PM
How would Corbyn campaign though? He's ruled out supporting May's deal, he's ruled out no deal and he's repeatedly ruled out remaining in the EU.

He'd be pushing for a referendum in which he couldn't publicly support any of the options that could potentially be on the ballot.

I mean this is a failure of imagination right here. Relatively easy for his team to come up with rhetoric around the withdrawal agreement failing the 6 tests, so it's time to put it to the people for a vote, and Remain clearly has to be an option on there. If he wants he could use the emerging illegality of the Leave campaign, although I guess he won't.

Time again pundits, including us, have failed to see the numerous ways in which Hard Brexit, median Brexit, Brexit full stop can be undercut by a) parliament b) the Tory party itself c) the public at large, so sticking to some kind of 2016 narrative about this is not really going to get us anywhere. It's failing to read all the signs.

Paul Calf

Quote from: Zetetic on November 27, 2018, 05:32:51 PM
"Canada" wouldn't mean anything.



It'd at least be consistent with the original referendum then.

Replies From View

Quote from: biggytitbo on November 27, 2018, 05:28:53 PM
Can referenda have more than 2 choices?

- Mays deal that everyone thinks is shit and just got defeated in parliament
- No deal which will literally KILL US ALL
- Remain (but why should leave accept it if remain didn't the first? Best of 3?)

So Leavers are happy to split the leave vote in that way and won't have a hissy fit if they lose?  Bring it on, then.

Quote from: biggytitbo on November 27, 2018, 05:28:53 PM
Can referenda have more than 2 choices?

- Mays deal that everyone thinks is shit and just got defeated in parliament
- No deal which will literally KILL US ALL
- Remain

Anything else? you presumably can't put options like Norway or Canada if they haven't been agreed with the EU?

Theoretically, yes, but there's no way Brexiteers would accept that as the Leave vote would be split into two. Remain would walk it.

You could add the EEA option but, again, the EU haven't agreed to that and can't as part of the withdrawal agreement. It can only be negotiated after 29th March.

Quote from: Howj Begg on November 27, 2018, 05:33:25 PM
I mean this is a failure of imagination right here. Relatively easy for his team to come up with rhetoric around the withdrawal agreement failing the 6 tests, so it's time to put it to the people for a vote, and Remain clearly has to be an option on there. If he wants he could use the emerging illegality of the Leave campaign, although I guess he won't.

Time again pundits, including us, have failed to see the numerous ways in which Hard Brexit, median Brexit, Brexit full stop can be undercut by a) parliament b) the Tory party itself c) the public at large, so sticking to some kind of 2016 narrative about this is not really going to get us anywhere. It's failing to read all the signs.

But which option could Corbyn campaign on? The only realistic option is Remain and that would go down like a sack of shit in the leave voting Labour heartlands and the media would have a field day.

biggytitbo

This is the whole problem, having another referendum isn't a trivial thing, it'll take months, requires primary legislation and considering non of them can agree on anything about thw deal how are they going to agree on what the question in a referendum should be? Itd be arguably almost as divisive an issue.


And then the referendum itself, if we got that far, would be the last 2 years of shitshow except 10 times worse.

Howj Begg

Quote from: Huxleys Babkins on November 27, 2018, 05:42:04 PM
But which option could Corbyn campaign on? The only realistic option is Remain and that would go down like a sack of shit in the leave voting Labour heartlands and the media would have a field day.

Why does he have to campaign for Remain? He just have to campaign for the vote. Besides which he and Starmer, can artfully frame their position as Remain is better than May's deal - which is the only one in town, the EU have said so etc - , and here's why. That's completely plausible.

Replies From View

Quote from: biggytitbo on November 27, 2018, 05:42:58 PM
This is the whole problem, having another referendum isn't a trivial thing, it'll take months, requires primary legislation and considering non of them can agree on anything about thw deal how are they going to agree on what the question in a referendum should be? Itd be arguably almost as divisive an issue.

Yes - if only the first referendum had been clear in the first place about what leaving the EU actually meant!  It's almost as if the entire situation is a stupid thing to have occurred.

But inside the head of the die-hard Leaver beats the deafening drum BREXIT MEANS BREXIT WE MUST LEAVE THE EU AT ALL COSTS - so reality's nuances will never trouble their dreams.

BlodwynPig


Replies From View


Zetetic

Quote from: biggytitbo on November 27, 2018, 05:16:18 PM
It's no deal or election I think, so the latter.
Or Tory leadership contest, and pass the current deal with a bunch of noise about how much they don't like and they'll get out of it when they can.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

Quote from: Huxleys Babkins on November 27, 2018, 05:42:04 PM
But which option could Corbyn campaign on? The only realistic option is Remain and that would go down like a sack of shit in the leave voting Labour heartlands and the media would have a field day.

They wouldn't need to have a position, their position could be "we'll do what you tell us".

biggytitbo

That's not exactly likely to inspire confidence after last time is it?


I think Corbyns strategy on brexit the last 2 years has being a political masterstroke, but it's coming to the end of its lifespan now and he needs some clearer answers.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

I think given the second referendum is to either rubber stamp Brexit or ditch it, so it'd be fair to say 'we'll do what you want'

Ha -

https://voxpoliticalonline.com/2018/11/27/brexit-are-tory-whips-threatening-their-own-mps-after-bid-to-win-labour-support-failed/

QuoteUPDATE: The figure of Labour MPs who have not confirmed their position on Theresa May's Brexit deal has just reduced to 11.

Labour MP @grahamemorris has confirmed that he is voting against Theresa May's deal.

biggytitbo

Quote from: Shoulders?-Stomach! on November 27, 2018, 06:26:19 PM
I think given the second referendum is to either rubber stamp Brexit or ditch it, so it'd be fair to say 'we'll do what you want'


The existence of a second referendum proves they won't/can't 'do what we want'.


But considering you think it's that simple, what do you think the question should be?

Shoulders?-Stomach!

1) Current deal
2) Different deal (to be negotiated and brought forward in a referendum)
3) No deal
4) Remain in the EU on current terms subject to future renegotiation

My guess is the results would be approx:

1) 12%
2) 20%
3) 16%
4) 52%


Zetetic


Zetetic

Are you allowed to have rhetorical questions in referendums? "Why don't you stop being a fuckwit?" (No choices.)

Shoulders?-Stomach!

Anyway, I doubt the Tories will call a referendum off the back of a defeat in the commons and May has sounded the most concrete of all on that subject.

That leaves her resignation or a General Election in the face of a clear and unassailable defeat.

A general election is pretty much the only way of smoking out Labour on Brexit. Corbyn can say whatever he likes in a tv debate as there won't be time to go into that much detail, and the leave crowd simply don't care about details which is why we are here in the first place. I bet you any money an audience member will shout WHY DONT YOU JUST GET ON AND DO BREXIT at some point

In a GE Labour would have to decide whether to switch to a Remain or BRINO position.