Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)

[biggytitbo]

Unless 5% of the Parliamentary Conservative Party actually consists of a secret socialist sleeper cell, I don't think this is very likely.

See above - they could vote for it because they want a general election, not because they support Corbyn.

[pancreas]

When there is eventually a vote of no confidence, there will be 0 Tories voting against the government. I'm happy to make a bet with someone to that effect.

[jobotic]

When there is eventually a vote of no confidence, there will be 0 Tories voting against the government. I'm happy to make a bet with someone to that effect.

Not with me, I agree entirely.

[DeadBishop]

It would take 7 Tories, and I'm not convinced either.

May brings her WA in March, it gets voted down.

Vote of no-con, May survives.

Someone brings forward legislation for Referendum 2, it passes.

That's as far as I can get.

[Replies From View]

Not with me, I agree entirely.

No it has to be with you I'm afraid.

[jobotic]

I'm not betting on just that, need to get an accumulator going. Got access to my son's savings here.

[Pdine]

I think it is right that the party feels the party would prefer to go into that election with a new leader.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

When there is eventually a vote of no confidence, there will be 0 Tories voting against the government. I'm happy to make a bet with someone to that effect.

With a dead deal and statutory obligation to avoid a No Deal the Tories can't stay in limbo forever. They can ask May to leave but why would she now? There is only 2nd Referendum or GE.

[Replies From View]

With a dead deal and statutory obligation to avoid a No Deal the Tories can't stay in limbo forever. They can ask May to leave but why would she now? There is only 2nd Referendum or GE.

And then it basically depends on which party wants to be "blamed" for triggering a second referendum.

[Zetetic]

Apologies, what's the "statutory obligation"? Is this a reference the unlawful (with respect to WTO rules) situation that will result in leaving without a deal but without enforcing customs etc. barriers?

I know there's the requirement in the Withdrawal Act for the government to put a plan before parliament.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Most likely outcomes from here in my view:

1) New deal gets DUP support but still fails due to ERG, Brexit window extended, vote of no confidence called, May wins, deal renegotiated again....then err.....?!?
2) New deal fails to get any support, Brexit window extended, Vote of no confidence called and lost, May goes, Tories go through leadership election and new leader inevitably fails, election called, Tories lose
3) New deal signed off somehow after last minute blackmail
4) New deal doesn't pass, deadline passes and we crash out, May resigns, new leader inherits the ashes
5) May realises 2nd referendum actually a way of rubber stamping the deal with public's authority, extends deadline, wins referendum, authority as PM restored, Corbyn under pressure to resign from usual suspects

6) Somehow Remain get their referendum, win, and the EU bill the UK for wasting their fucking time

Bizarre May still hasn't realised 5) but there's time

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Some reports going around that the DUP have agreed conditionally to back a no-confidence motion jn the government.

[Howj Begg]

Most likely outcomes from here in my view:

this is called cheating

[Replies From View]

Bizarre May still hasn't realised 5) but there's time

You fool!  She famously spends most of her life scouring CaB for insights and YOU HAVE NOW TORN IT MATE.

[Zetetic]

Reminded of another area of policy today that Brexit's fucked over for the last two years - medical examiners (and cremation and death fees). Nothing even controversial, really, just shoved to the back of queue.

[biggytitbo]

Some reports going around that the DUP have agreed conditionally to back a no-confidence motion jn the government.

Another thing to bear in mind here is according to the fixed term parliament act, if May loses a no confidence vote the tories still have 14 days to form another government, so the dup or erg could back a no confidence motion in the hope a Brexiteer takes over, without there having to be an election.

[thraxx]

Some reports going around that the DUP have agreed conditionally to back a no-confidence motion jn the government.

Going around where? What could the conditions be, plump for no deal or rescind article 51 or 2nd referendum?

The DUP, if it were true, must have some guarantee they that their kingmaker position must remain or be reinforced?

[Harry Stottle]

Its article 50 son. Think your gettin your articles mixed up with your areas.

[Cuellar]

On the guardian live thing the commentator said only the PM can revoke article 50, NOT parliament. Any of our many constitutional lawyers want to weigh in?

[biggytitbo]

Constitutionally only Theresa May or, oddly, Harry Redknapp.

[thraxx]

Constitutionally only Theresa May or, oddly, Harry Redknapp.

I for one have been really holding out for Evan Ekoku or Mikkel Beck to weigh into the Brexit debate, like they did into opposition penalty areas.

[Johnny Yesno]

yes, it's the fact they attempted to disguise the edit using morphing software that's most disturbing. If it wasn't for their utter incompetence in not cutting the materialising boy out, we would be none the wiser. Where else are they doing this?

You are fucking mental, biggy.

[Pseudopath]

Some reports going around that the DUP have agreed conditionally to back a no-confidence motion jn the government.

Fucking hell. Have they already spunked away that first billion?

[finnquark]

I'd say the rebels in the Tory party might be kicking themselves looking at what's coming out of this evening's meeting. Should have held off until she inevitably failed to get the non-distant reassurances, and lanced the boil tomorrow.

[Alberon]

May's deal is still dead and the EU isn't budging. So is all she has left the plan of having the vote as close to the deadline as possible to scare MPs into voting for it to avoid No Brexit?

[gib]

Yes.

[Blue Jam]

EU tell May to get fucked:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46560807

6)...the EU bill the UK for wasting their fucking time

Looking likely.

[biggytitbo]

EU tell May to get fucked:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46560807

Looking likely.

Chinny reckon?

[Blue Jam]

Not seriously, Bigs.

[biggytitbo]

They know parliament has ruled out a 'no deal' and that Mays deal will never pass without major changes, so they're just angling for us to back down and revoke or have a 2nd referendum. Nobody can ever be allowed to leave the EU, you can checkout but never leave. And we had the spectacle the last few days of various EU figures urging the UK to tell it's own voters to fuck off, that's how they've operated for decades, openly contemptuous of the democratic will of the people of its member nations, and willing to do anything to nullify their votes.