Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)

[Buelligan]

The numbers are not there. 

Quite.  Who will vote to win the vote (for Labour)?  The DUP, is it in their interest?  The ERG?  Why would anyone push for a vote they cannot win?

[pigamus]

The numbers are not there. 

When are they ever going to be?

[Buelligan]

If the DUP get upset enough, the numbers would add up.

[gib]

I'd like to think they have a plan.

[biggytitbo]

They only need a dozen or so disgruntled tories even without DUP.  Corbyn has nothing to lose if he tables a no confidence motion, he can try again after the vote in a month if he loses. Thatcher tabled 5 no confidence votes against Labour in the 70s before finally succeeding, some only a few months apart https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1074784429061607425?s=19

[DrGreggles]

I'd like to think they have a plan.

The Tories and DUP would never vote against the government, but how many are disgruntled enough to abstain?

[Buelligan]

They only need a dozen or so disgruntled tories even without DUP.  Corbyn has nothing to lose if he tables a no confidence motion, he can try again after the vote in a month if he loses. Thatcher tabled 5 no confidence votes against Labour in the 70s before finally succeeding, some only a few months apart https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1074784429061607425?s=19

Yeah, only a dozen or so disgruntled tories prepared to vote themselves out of a job, to lose all their friends in their constituencies and any possibility of making an honours list or bagging a non-executive directorship or three.  Only a dozen or so tories prepared to sacrifice themselves for the good of other people and the Labour Party.  Easy.

I'd like to think they have a plan.

I think the plan probably was to defeat the "deal" vote this week and then push the confidence issue, hoping that the DUP would get angry enough over the backstop to vote against the tories or at least abstain.  May's plan now is to kick the vote on her deal down the road far enough to make sure that there's no time left for alternatives and the House is forced to vote for either her deal or No Deal.  She knows that No Deal does not have a majority, so, unless there's a huge number of abstentions, her deal will pass - and save her reputation, at least temporarily, and fuck the ERG up the arse, hard.  All fun and games but no way to run a fucking ballroom.

IMO, Labour have to force the meaningful vote forward or use her refusal to budge on it to make the ERG and the tory remainers kill May for them.  That must be the plan.

[biggytitbo]

Under the fixed term act a vote of confidence doesn't instantly trigger an election (which enough of them would think they can win anyway). The tories have two weeks to form a new government I believe - which some of the erg lot might think is an opportunity to get a Brexiteer in. Corbyn has nothing to lose trying it anyway.

[Buelligan]

To what end?  What value is there in taking up his time and the time of the House in pushing a vote that he (and everyone) knows he cannot win?

[biggytitbo]

Time is the main one, waiting another month when the clock is rapidly counting down is not good is it?

[Buelligan]

Which is why Labour needs to push the meaningful vote forward or undermine May further if she resists that.

[Urinal Cake]

It's a waste of effort. Let the Tories eat their own.

[Paul Calf]

It's not really a free hit. It's not a secret ballot, so any Tory voting against would be open to reprisals.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

It's not really a free hit. It's not a secret ballot, so any Tory voting against would be open to reprisals.

1/3 of May's own party have no confidence in her as leader, and by extension, given she is Prime Minister, as Prime Minister either.

It's worth holding this vote which regards her performance as PM and losing even just for shit stirring reasons, as a tight vote will create further panic in the whips but at the very least it is worth holding up what venal cowards the 117 MPs are if they don't back it.

[Huxleys Babkins]

Time is the main one, waiting another month when the clock is rapidly counting down is not good is it?

Labour are tied up in knots because they pledged at conference that they'd first try to get a general election above all else and if they failed in that they'd push for a second referendum.

The Labour leadership do NOT want a second referendum. They don't want to be seen advocating for one. Even now, when the stakes have never been higher, they will do anything to avoid having to get down off the fence.

That's why we're getting impotent, pointless motions like the one yesterday. Anything to stall for time. Anything to kick their conference pledge into the long grass. Even if that means foregoing the chance of a general election.

[BlodwynPig]

Labour are tied up in knots because they pledged at conference that they'd first try to get a general election above all else and if they failed in that they'd push for a second referendum.

The Labour leadership do NOT want a second referendum. They don't want to be seen advocating for one. Even now, when the stakes have never been higher, they will do anything to avoid having to get down off the fence.

That's why we're getting impotent, pointless motions like the one yesterday. Anything to stall for time. Anything to kick their conference pledge into the long grass. Even if that means foregoing the chance of a general election.

I don't think all these games and second-guessing is very good for the nation, do you? It's not House of Cards.

[thugler]

Labour are tied up in knots because they pledged at conference that they'd first try to get a general election above all else and if they failed in that they'd push for a second referendum.

The Labour leadership do NOT want a second referendum. They don't want to be seen advocating for one. Even now, when the stakes have never been higher, they will do anything to avoid having to get down off the fence.

That's why we're getting impotent, pointless motions like the one yesterday. Anything to stall for time. Anything to kick their conference pledge into the long grass. Even if that means foregoing the chance of a general election.

How do you suggest they go about getting one then Einstein?

[Huxleys Babkins]

How do you suggest they go about getting one then Einstein?

Who's "they"?

What's "one"?

[thugler]

Who's "they"?

What's "one"?

"they pledged at conference that they'd first try to get a general election above all else"

Quite clear if you read what i quoted.

You are tfm anyway, fuck off!

[Buelligan]

Labour are tied up in knots because they pledged at conference that they'd first try to get a general election above all else and if they failed in that they'd push for a second referendum.

The Labour leadership do NOT want a second referendum. They don't want to be seen advocating for one. Even now, when the stakes have never been higher, they will do anything to avoid having to get down off the fence.

That's why we're getting impotent, pointless motions like the one yesterday. Anything to stall for time. Anything to kick their conference pledge into the long grass. Even if that means foregoing the chance of a general election.

I don't think you're seeing this very clearly.  There are issues with advocating a second referendum, acknowledged and obvious to anyone who cares to think about it with an open mind rather than narrowly wailing for their own preferred option (when everyone's preferred option had no chance at all of success - because there just aren't the numbers).

Whether you like it or not, whether the UK's in the EU or not, having Corbyn as PM and a genuine Labour government is the one chance you people living on that benighted rock have.  Openly advocating a second referendum in the past would have made it impossible to ever have one.  You've seen how even people like Rees Mogg who said

We could have two referendums. As it happens it might make more sense to have the second referendum after the renegotiation is completed.

have become implacably against ever countenancing such an idea. 

If Corbyn had ever suggested such a thing, can you imagine what guns would be wheeled out to shoot the thought dead before it could ever hatch?  It would have been played, as it is being played now (when it's stronger and has gained a toe-hold in the public imagination), as anti-democratic - Corbyn the dictator, Corbyn the man who sides with Blair against THE WILL OF THE FUCKING PEOPLE (PBUI).  The thought that Corbyn should've run with such a thing is just such a ludicrous suggestion/criticism, anyone making it makes it plain they have no idea at all about how British politics works.  The public need time to take on new ideas. 

Getting down off the fence, as you put it, is a fucking stupid idea if it means your last best hope gets shot in the face.

[Huxleys Babkins]

"they pledged at conference that they'd first try to get a general election above all else"

Quite clear if you read what i quoted.

I wrote what you quoted. I also mentioned a second referendum in that quote.

In answer to your question, at this point they probably can't. Push now and the DUP won't break ranks, the motion will fail, thus Labour will then go into 2019 having to push for a referendum they don't want to have.

Wait until after the vote and it's probably too late. The earliest you could hope for an election would be at the beginning of March. The timing would be catastrophic for avoiding a no deal scenario.

So, instead, they table nonsense motions. It's all they've got left.

I don't think you're seeing this very clearly.  There are issues with advocating a second referendum, acknowledged and obvious to anyone who cares to think about it with an open mind rather than narrowly wailing for their own preferred option (when everyone's preferred option had no chance at all of success - because there just aren't the numbers).

Whether you like it or not, whether the UK's in the EU or not, having Corbyn as PM and a genuine Labour government is the one chance you people living on that benighted rock have.  Openly advocating a second referendum in the past would have made it impossible to ever have one.  You've seen how even people like Rees Mogg who said

have become implacably against ever countenancing such an idea. 

If Corbyn had ever suggested such a thing, can you imagine what guns would be wheeled out to shoot the thought dead before it could ever hatch?  It would have been played, as it is being played now (when it's stronger and has gained a toe-hold in the public imagination), as anti-democratic - Corbyn the dictator, Corbyn the man who sides with Blair against THE WILL OF THE FUCKING PEOPLE (PBUI).  The thought that Corbyn should've run with such a thing is just such a ludicrous suggestion/criticism, anyone making it makes it plain they have no idea at all about how British politics works.  The public need time to take on new ideas. 

Getting down off the fence, as you put it, is a fucking stupid idea if it means your last best hope gets shot in the face.

He should have never committed to (conditionally) supporting a second referendum in the first place. He only did it at the eleventh hour because everyone was accusing him at conference of not listening to the membership that is majority remain.

But that's the price you pay when you try to be everything to everyone. Something has to give eventually. Eventually you have to disappoint someone.

[thugler]

So you have no suggestion of what else to do. Great!

Once the deal is voted down things will get moving

[Huxleys Babkins]

So you have no suggestion of what else to do. Great!

Once the deal is voted down things will get moving

I don't know what you're expecting me to do. I'm not a politician.

Once the deal is voted down, what do you expect to happen? What majority will suddenly spring up to force May's hand?

[thugler]

The majority against no deal

[oooft]

He should have never committed to (conditionally) supporting a second referendum in the first place. He only did it at the eleventh hour because everyone was accusing him at conference of not listening to the membership that is majority remain.

But that's the price you pay when you try to be everything to everyone. Something has to give eventually. Eventually you have to disappoint someone.

Yes, exactly. Him and May should swap soap boxes in Parliament because everyone knows he's for Brexit and she's for remain. He has always been anti-EU I don't think anyone can just wake up one day and suddenly change their opinions. This is why he should not be leader of the opposition - the Tories shall be in power as long as he's leader of Labour. Fact.

[thugler]

Yes, exactly. Him and May should swap soap boxes in Parliament because everyone knows he's for Brexit and she's for remain. He has always been anti-EU I don't think anyone can just wake up one day and suddenly change their opinions. This is why he should not be leader of the opposition - the Tories shall be in power as long as he's leader of Labour. Fact.

Fuck off sock puppet

[oooft]

Fuck off sock puppet

Does the truth hurt hurt about your golden boy Vladimir?

[Paul Calf]

Has TFM invited his little mates over?

[Huxleys Babkins]

The majority against no deal

Yeah, but there's only one avenue currently open to stop that; voting for May's deal.

Without a majority for a third way, you've only got two options on the table; May's deal or 'no deal'.

[thugler]

Yeah, but there's only one avenue currently open to stop that; voting for May's deal.

Without a majority for a third way, you've only got two options on the table; May's deal or 'no deal'.

Except no deal is a bluff. Very few actually want it or would allow it to happen.