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Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)

Started by mothman, November 26, 2018, 09:23:36 AM

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BlodwynPig

Quote from: greencalx on February 04, 2019, 10:33:49 PM
These rumours of a June election - vehemently denied by Javid, so clearly being seriously considered. What would that be attractive to May? It can't just be Salisbury-Addison?

Or is the idea to Brexit in March, call an election, lose, and pin the whole fucking thing on Corbyn?

I left the UK a week after the last election, it could be that I arrive back the week before the next. Christ.

jamiefairlie

GE would solve nothing. There's an unsolvable problem that stops a deal happening, cancel or no-deal only options. GE won't change that.

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Quote from: jamiefairlie on February 05, 2019, 12:56:22 AM
GE would solve nothing. There's an unsolvable problem that stops a deal happening, cancel or no-deal only options. GE won't change that.

It'll allow the Tories to wash their hands of Brexit and let Labour get the blame for it (or a second referendum), though.

hummingofevil

No chance. Even talk of an election is just more 'my deal or no deal or no Brexit" bollocks. Idea that Tory's would give up power is ridiculous.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

Quote from: jamiefairlie on February 05, 2019, 12:56:22 AM
GE would solve nothing. There's an unsolvable problem that stops a deal happening, cancel or no-deal only options. GE won't change that.

It can and probably is the best way of breaking the impasse. It's an opportunity for the public to light a fire under the arses of MPs for not following their wishes. The freshest most recent mandate.

Not to mention it will change the seats in the commons, either towards May stepping down and a new government who will be able to negotiate a new deal with a fresh mandate or towards support for the existing deal and her as PM.

And if it's still a hung parliament then presumably May goes anyway, and new things emerge from that.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

Quote from: hummingofevil on February 05, 2019, 08:04:07 AM
No chance. Even talk of an election is just more 'my deal or no deal or no Brexit" bollocks. Idea that Tory's would give up power is ridiculous.

Extension of A50 will be first. If they only negotiate a 3 month extension I can see the Tories calling an election if there's no sign off in those 3 months.

As much as they don't want to give up power, most Tory MPs don't want to crash out with no deal and be blamed for the consequences. The only thing they have left is offering economic continuity for the 50+

They are war gaming it right now, so the idea it's ridiculous is a little much.

Zetetic

Trick is to pile blame on to May specifically, I would have thought.

Paul Calf

The Tories will not roll over. The purpose of the party is to be in power, even if that power will eventually ruin them. They have no other strategy except winning and remaining in power.

Quote from: Malcolm Rifkind"We are a party whose sole purpose through the centuries has been to win and retain political power."

I mean, he did say that in 1996, shortly before crashing to defeat in the 1997 GE, but it's still true.

thraxx

Quote from: Shoulders?-Stomach! on February 05, 2019, 08:15:35 AM
Extension of A50 will be first.

I fail to see how extending a provincial dual carriageway near Stoke will help things. And they voted to leave anyway so why should they benefit?

gib

Quote from: Paul Calf on February 05, 2019, 08:56:51 AM
The Tories will not roll over. The purpose of the party is to be in power, even if that power will eventually ruin them. They have no other strategy except winning and remaining in power.

Yep, how many times does this have to be said.

I'm not aware of any occasion where they have voluntarily given up even a crumb of power.

olliebean

If the Tories think they can win an election pre-Brexit, I reckon they'll go for it, because after Brexit it'll become clear how badly they've fucked up the country and they'll want the next election to be as far in the future as possible.

greencalx

Quote from: gib on February 05, 2019, 09:06:50 AM
Yep, how many times does this have to be said.

I'm not aware of any occasion where they have voluntarily given up even a crumb of power.

This is why I'm confused as to why Javid had to deny they were even thinking about it (which means they've obviously been thinking about it).

jamiefairlie

Quote from: Shoulders?-Stomach! on February 05, 2019, 08:10:56 AM
It can and probably is the best way of breaking the impasse. It's an opportunity for the public to light a fire under the arses of MPs for not following their wishes. The freshest most recent mandate.

Not to mention it will change the seats in the commons, either towards May stepping down and a new government who will be able to negotiate a new deal with a fresh mandate or towards support for the existing deal and her as PM.

And if it's still a hung parliament then presumably May goes anyway, and new things emerge from that.

No matter the configuration if the HOC, it doesn't change the nature of the problem, there is no deal possible that is acceptable to the UK (electorate and MPs alike). How do you solve the Border problem for instance? It's not about negotiation, it's just inherently unsolvable.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

Quote from: jamiefairlie on February 05, 2019, 09:02:24 PM
No matter the configuration if the HOC, it doesn't change the nature of the problem, there is no deal possible that is acceptable to the UK (electorate and MPs alike). How do you solve the Border problem for instance? It's not about negotiation, it's just inherently unsolvable.

Huh, well that's changing the goalposts somewhat.

The political problem of passing some form of brexit deal through, (or Remaining through some official 2nd referendum) can be solved via a general election, for the reasons I've explained.

"There is no deal that is acceptable to the UK (electorate and MP's alike)" implies it requires 100% consent from both parties, when it doesn't. It just needs to squeak through via the tiniest margin in order to get done. It doesn't solve the fact many will disagree but all politics is a continual unresolved fight, so why should Europe be any different.

What we're discovering is that the Tory strategy is now to Technically Leave, and then make the terms of the deal ambiguous enough to mean anything to anyone. But by that point we'll have left so the Gammon Brigade who just want to GET ON AND DO BREXIT get their moment, and can avoid having to confront the actual details.

jamiefairlie

Right but how do you avoid a hard border in NI without having free movement of people?

gib

Quote from: jamiefairlie on February 05, 2019, 10:57:35 PM
Right but how do you avoid a hard border in NI without having free movement of people?

Could we sort of let NI 'bud off' in such a way that they are still part of the UK for some purposes yet independent enough to stay in the EU?

Shoulders?-Stomach!

Quote from: jamiefairlie on February 05, 2019, 10:57:35 PM
Right but how do you avoid a hard border in NI without having free movement of people?

Years of toothpulling inertia until some sort of fudge/max-fac type option.

But as I say, the gammons will already have stopped caring cos ARE COUNTRY (England/Wales) BACK

BlodwynPig


jamiefairlie

Quote from: BlodwynPig on February 05, 2019, 11:28:02 PM
Theresa May THREAD

GODDAMMIT

But all she does is Brexit, she has no existence outside of that so they've merged into a symbiotic being 😀

jamiefairlie

Quote from: Shoulders?-Stomach! on February 05, 2019, 11:17:22 PM
Years of toothpulling inertia until some sort of fudge/max-fac type option.

But as I say, the gammons will already have stopped caring cos ARE COUNTRY (England/Wales) BACK

I think that's what they all thought would happen, we can just fudge it and nobody will notice but it's becoming apparent that there isn't even a fudge that gets them off the hook, they're blocked at every turn no matter how they wriggle and there's nowhere left to go now. Corbyn coming in won't change that and neither will a 2nd ref, it's cancel or no deal.

The gammons are vindictive bunch and if there's not a clear hard Brexit delivered there will be a rise of some form of hardline new party a la Trump, with simple answers to every question. They've really opened Pandora's box with this and it's going get worse.

BlodwynPig

Quote from: jamiefairlie on February 05, 2019, 11:42:06 PM
But all she does is Brexit, she has no existence outside of that so they've merged into a symbiotic being 😀

what is she doing now, this minute?

Rich Uncle Skeleton

at midnight? probably giving Arthur Askey a quick tug while catching up with the archers.

BlodwynPig


jamiefairlie

You use less energy when you have no empathy or human kindness. Her and May effectively run in safe mode.

Howj Begg

Quote from: Rich Uncle Skeleton on February 06, 2019, 12:07:58 AM
at midnight? probably giving Arthur Askey a quick tug while catching up with the archers.

Quote from: BlodwynPig on February 06, 2019, 12:23:47 AM
Thatcher survived on 3 hours sleep a night.

Are you implying Dennis benefited from the rest of that time? Chilling thought.

chveik



BlodwynPig

Quote from: Howj Begg on February 06, 2019, 12:36:58 AM
Are you implying Dennis benefited from the rest of that time? Chilling thought.

I have sympathy for the man. A mere 3 hour break, I know how he feels...

Bronzy