Author Topic: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)  (Read 26714 times)

Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #60 on: November 26, 2018, 10:44:11 PM »

After everything, everyone is marshaling together to get this deal through; the media, the cabinet, cross party MPs. It's going to go through isn't it?  How on earth did we get from 2 weeks ago to here?

mothman

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #61 on: November 26, 2018, 10:45:51 PM »
We’re planning to put the tree up that weekend, so that’ll just be the icing on the Christmas cake here at Mothy Towers.

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #62 on: November 26, 2018, 10:47:08 PM »
If a second referendum resulted in REMAIN, ACTUALLY, would the UK retain any clout as far as 'remaining and reforming' is concerned? Or, as SGN suggests, would there bit a small bit of embarrassment for a decade or two?

I haven't come to support the idea of a second referendum. I think it would undermine all the disenfranchisement that led to the leave vote, and might result in even deeper resentment (and that way lies right-wing fringe extremism). The people who feel left-behind will feel even more betrayed. People, millions of them struggling, were (disingenuously) asked if they wanted CHANGE, they said yes, and two years on that vague spectre of change is revoked and the status quo is resumed? Dunno. Reckon it could get nasty.

That said, I do think the 2016 referendum was a disingenuous act of political cowardice, followed by a campaign of dishonesty disguising internal Tory power-play, and that the outcome was largely the result of right-wing media propaganda and scapegoatery stretching back years. Even if there are valid, socialist reasons to leave the EU, I don't think they are at the forefront of any Tory's mind - and they are the ones in power, let's remember, with most of the media on their side. I myself voted remain. But we've had it now. Give it to Labour and see if they can fashion something fair out of it. Fuck it. Let's ramp up zoological research and see if we can trade with bonobos and chimps.

Uh oh. Just realised this is the May thread, and I'm on the derailed side of the tracks. So, Theresa May. Was funny when she did a dance

Just remember that the referendum wasn't a thing the UK public were desperate for and the last election proved there is far more to people's politics than European Union. This was a Tory feud imposed on a bemused and manipulated public.

pancreas

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #63 on: November 26, 2018, 10:50:28 PM »
After everything, everyone is marshaling together to get this deal through; the media, the cabinet, cross party MPs. It's going to go through isn't it?  How on earth did we get from 2 weeks ago to here?

Why do you keep saying this? DUP+Lab+SNP+etc almost all against. That's enough as it stands. Now add in the ERG and staunch Tory remainers like Soubry, and it's way over the line. I just don't see it getting through.

Look. Guardian.

mothman

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #64 on: November 26, 2018, 10:55:10 PM »
We all know that intellectually. But we also know how craven and manipulatible these fuckers are. So we can’t help but worry there’s an upset coming. It’s the referendum all over again, basically.

Captain Z

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #65 on: November 26, 2018, 10:56:37 PM »
Has Brexit just been an elaborate setup for a live Dr Who series finale?

BlodwynPig

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #66 on: November 26, 2018, 11:57:55 PM »
I know! What are they on? This series of Doctor Who has been so weak no one would complain if it got moved for a debate.

They could put Dr. Who on in its rightful slot, Saturday mornings on BBC2.

Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #67 on: November 27, 2018, 12:08:38 AM »
After everything, everyone is marshaling together to get this deal through; the media, the cabinet, cross party MPs. It's going to go through isn't it?  How on earth did we get from 2 weeks ago to here?

I'm not sure many MPs will have changed their voting intentions in that time, and a LOT of them would need to.

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #68 on: November 27, 2018, 06:54:32 AM »
Why do you keep saying this? DUP+Lab+SNP+etc almost all against. That's enough as it stands. Now add in the ERG and staunch Tory remainers like Soubry, and it's way over the line. I just don't see it getting through.

Look. Guardian.

My feeling is it's going to be more like 350 vs 290.

If there's under 30MPs left to woo after losing the first vote I think they'll try and possibly succeed.

I'm not sure how May continues as PM if it's a defeat as big as Guardian predicts.

biggytitbo

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #69 on: November 27, 2018, 07:16:53 AM »
It's effectively a vote of confidence in her and her government.

Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #70 on: November 27, 2018, 07:40:07 AM »
It's effectively a vote of confidence in her and her government.

Hey Biggy how angry are you about Trump weighing in about May's deal? I mean he's not as bad as Obama obviously but even so.

biggytitbo

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #71 on: November 27, 2018, 07:59:21 AM »
I don't think its the same as Obama's intervention - he was asked by Cameron to try and sway the result of a referendum by saying something that wasn't true - especially so considering Obama was right at the end of his term. Trumps statement is factually true as far as my reading of May's stupid deal is concerned - do you dispute that?

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #72 on: November 27, 2018, 08:01:27 AM »
Haha.

greencalx

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #73 on: November 27, 2018, 08:04:26 AM »
I agree that the Brexit vote is effectively a confidence vote, so I imagine rather more Tory MPs will fall in line than it first appears.

I’ve lost track of how this bill is supposed to proceed - are amendments possible? If so, how and when?

Shoulders?-Stomach!

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #74 on: November 27, 2018, 08:09:17 AM »
Europe was never a massive issue for most British people but given Brexit was supposed to put the issue to bed, May has excelled herself but reaching a position that feels for most people like a major, costly constitutional defeat when it was originally sold as being this grand moment of triumph. Not much joy to be found.

She only has the WE HAD A VOTE SO LETS JUST GET ON AND DO BREXIT non-thinkers left in support

biggytitbo

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #75 on: November 27, 2018, 08:09:23 AM »
I agree that the Brexit vote is effectively a confidence vote, so I imagine rather more Tory MPs will fall in line than it first appears.

I’ve lost track of how this bill is supposed to proceed - are amendments possible? If so, how and when?


May's going to treat it like an election campaign which will concentrate a lot of tory minds that it could mean oblivion for them if they don't get on board.

Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #76 on: November 27, 2018, 08:19:51 AM »
Why do you keep saying this? DUP+Lab+SNP+etc almost all against. That's enough as it stands. Now add in the ERG and staunch Tory remainers like Soubry, and it's way over the line. I just don't see it getting through.

Look. Guardian.


It’s either get the deal through, or risk a socialist government. Of course they’ll get it through.

Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #77 on: November 27, 2018, 08:30:25 AM »
Why do you keep saying this? DUP+Lab+SNP+etc almost all against. That's enough as it stands. Now add in the ERG and staunch Tory remainers like Soubry, and it's way over the line. I just don't see it getting through.

Look. Guardian.

Always say what?  That Guardian piece is just an update from a couple of weeks ago.  There is no way of knowing who will vote what when the time comes and there are more MPs saying they will vote for it, or saying they swill abstain, which you didn't really have a week ago.  It doesn't matter who says they are against, it matters who votes against.  The simple fact is, I've never known politicians not to vote for their own party when the chips are down no matter what they say.  The mood is significantly more positive than 2 weeks ago.

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #78 on: November 27, 2018, 08:30:39 AM »
It’s either get the deal through, or risk a socialist government. Of course they’ll get it through.

There’s also the wet dream scenario of our public sector making even more money for millionaires once the inevitable US-UK trade deal is achieved.

So of course the Tories will push it through.  They have no other reason to exist.

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #79 on: November 27, 2018, 08:32:35 AM »

It’s either get the deal through, or risk a socialist government. Of course they’ll get it through.

The vote will be closer than currently envisaged -  The Guardian is unwisely predicting a best case scenario rather than baking in the PR campaign to come.

But there are enough absolute die-hards on Brexit in the Tory party that won't come around in a fortnight. You only have to look at the numbers to work out how few rebels it will take to sink this deal. At the moment the Government are miles away from getting this through and by their actions you can tell. The sudden thrust of the PM in the media, the concessions left right and centre - we are watching the last stand.

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #80 on: November 27, 2018, 08:44:20 AM »
So of course the Tories will push it through.

When you count the core ERG crowd - not all of them, just the hardcore 25-30 who won't be voting for the deal because they believe it is even worse than remaining (and want May gone), count them in one by one, the deal can't get through unless corresponding Labour MPs vote for it.

Even this factors in the DUP coming back onside somehow.




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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #81 on: November 27, 2018, 09:30:07 AM »
I reckon a good chunk of those who submitted letters of no confidence will vote for the deal now. You saw it in the letters they sent ("I will submit this letter but if it's the one that tips the balance I retract it"). Got swept up in the excitement, craven villains.

biggytitbo

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #82 on: November 27, 2018, 09:37:00 AM »
How many Labour 'rebels' are likely to vote for May's bodge? I've not heard anyone go on the record yet saying they will. May's majority is so slim she's going to need a fair few I think.

Imagine being a labour MP and not only propping up May's government but voting for her stupid bodge job.

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #83 on: November 27, 2018, 09:49:18 AM »
When you count the core ERG crowd - not all of them, just the hardcore 25-30 who won't be voting for the deal because they believe it is even worse than remaining (and want May gone), count them in one by one, the deal can't get through unless corresponding Labour MPs vote for it.

Even this factors in the DUP coming back onside somehow.





They've been quiet for the last few weeks, but I can see the some of Blairite stragglers voting with the government on this, or at least abstaining: it prolongs our relationship with the EU and buys them a bit of time to dragoon the FBPE mob into a Brexit reversal somehow; and obviously the Labour MPs who'd rather see a Tory-controlled Brexit than a government headed by Corbyn.

This is obviously going to be a three-line whip on the government benches. How many of them will defy that?

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #84 on: November 27, 2018, 09:51:57 AM »
Disclaimer: I don't really think this will pass, but I'm not entirely convinced that it'll be defeated either.

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #85 on: November 27, 2018, 10:41:38 AM »
How big will the defeat need to be for May to step down? I reckon if the majority that vote against it is +40 odd there's nowhere she can go.

The EU won't give her enough new concessions to get that many onside and if they can't solve the issue with the DUP they effectively become a minority government.

There's also the issue that different rebels want diametrically different things. Potential Labour deal voters want more certainty over membership of various different institutions, ERG rebels want certainty we will not be in them. Whatever you give one lot you lose others.

As stated above, such a situation is effectively a rejection of her efforts and therefore her government. May would either have to go or to fight an election.

So this PR campaign may have two purposes - losing the vote as narrowly as possible but also her firing the starting pistol on an election.



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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #86 on: November 27, 2018, 10:53:05 AM »
Bribe, bully, blackmail. That's how they do it. Sell your opinions for a knighthood? DMIID. I mean, you'll be surrounded by people who despise you because you don't belong and they know exactly how you got there, but that's a minor issue.

I wonder how often May thinks of the 2017 election. I wonder if it keeps her awake at night. How different would things have been if they hadn't thrown their thin majority - the only one they've managed in over a quarter of a century - down the hubris vacuum?

Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #87 on: November 27, 2018, 10:58:34 AM »
The likes of Soubry will support it. They always fucking do. All mouth and no trousers. Remember when Dominic Grieve voted against his own amendment? Cowards, each and every one of them.

However, the ERG types will vote against it because it's the quickest route to crashing out with no deal.

I think that's where this all starts to get a bit messy for the opposition. Regardless of any vote, we automatically leave the EU on the 29th March. There's a danger that if the opposition vote against the deal, we'll crash out to an absolute catastrophe with Labour, Lib Dem, Green, SNP and Plaid Cymru fingerprints all over it.

I suspect with the usually shy and cowardly May demanding Corbyn debate her, this is exactly what her plan is. She's already ruled out a people's vote. She's ruled out an election. She's ruled out resigning. She's ruled out remaining. So instead, she'll shame the opposition into either backing her or be tarred with bringing about the biggest catastrophe this country has seen since WWII.

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #88 on: November 27, 2018, 11:08:03 AM »
I don’t think a May defeat automatically means she goes. Her mentality is to keep going, I don’t think she will ever resign.

As to the vote there seems to be the view among MPs that if the first one fails the government will try again, so leaving them free from consequences to vote against May’s deal. If it came to a no confidence in the government vote the Tories (and probably the DUP) would rally around May.

But if it all goes tits up (more so than it already has, of course) they’ll remove her and carry on.

The Tories will avoid a General Election like the plague but that does not mean May is safe at all.

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Re: Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)
« Reply #89 on: November 27, 2018, 11:11:52 AM »
I think May will lose the vote, but it'll be a lot closer than The Guardian (et al) are predicting....  May will find support in Remain and Leave Tories (who'll cite national unity) and Labour MPs (the neoliberal status-quo, Corbyn-haters) who'll push the numbers up. The DUP can probably be bought along with a couple of Liberals.