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March 28, 2024, 11:53:41 PM

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Countdown to AreMaygeddon (the s.t.b. ex-PM thread)

Started by mothman, November 26, 2018, 09:23:36 AM

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biggytitbo

Quote from: Alberon on November 27, 2018, 11:08:03 AM
I don't think a May defeat automatically means she goes. Her mentality is to keep going, I don't think she will ever resign.


I don't know what else it can mean though, considering she is unlikely to be in a position to go do a more favourable deal with the EU.

Alberon

I think when May has her face up against the wall and just keeps trying to walk through it the Tories will finally get their act together and remove her.

They'd prefer it if she got all the way through Brexit before making her a scapegoat, but if she can go no further they'll finally put her out of her misery.

Quote from: biggytitbo on November 27, 2018, 11:16:46 AM

I don't know what else it can mean though, considering she is unlikely to be in a position to go do a more favourable deal with the EU.

She doesn't have to. She can just crash out and blame Corbyn.

biggytitbo

Thats an interesting point as I have lost count now of the amount of times people have said 'MPs will never vote for a no deal'.


But thats not how it works is it? A no deal isnt something they'd vote for, its something that would happen by default next March as a consequence of not been able to agree a wider deal with the EU.

pancreas

The idea is that Parliament would take control and instruct May to get an A50 extension. Which, given the horror of the cliff-edge, is I think what would happen.

Paul Calf

Quote from: biggytitbo on November 27, 2018, 11:32:31 AM
Thats an interesting point as I have lost count now of the amount of times people have said 'MPs will never vote for a no deal'.


But thats not how it works is it? A no deal isnt something they'd vote for, its something that would happen by default next March as a consequence of not been able to agree a wider deal with the EU.

Don't worry, bigs. You'll get the chaos and discord you're desperate for somehow.

biggytitbo

Quote from: pancreas on November 27, 2018, 11:35:03 AM
The idea is that Parliament would take control and instruct May to get an A50 extension. Which, given the horror of the cliff-edge, is I think what would happen.


Well the EU don't want a 'no deal' either, so you're probably right. It just wouldn't be with May in charge.

thraxx

Quote from: pancreas on November 27, 2018, 11:35:03 AM
The idea is that Parliament would take control and instruct May to get an A50 extension. Which, given the horror of the cliff-edge, is I think what would happen.

That's not a bad shout.  But given that may has backed herself into a corner on deal and course of action, and the EU have said this is the deal, May surely couldn't be the person to take it forward, nor any leaver types.

pancreas

What, you mean she couldn't do something like say "nothing has changed" and keep on going?

I think she might demand to put her deal to the public.

Kelvin

If there is a second referendum (with Remain on the ballot) under a Tory leadership, I will post my genitals to the moon.

biggytitbo

I find it hard to see Corbyn doing that either tbh.


Don't use yodel if you post your genitals to the moon btw, they're liable to end up on Mars.

Blue Jam

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46355299

Quote"I am going to be explaining why I think this deal is the right deal for the UK - and yes, I am ready to debate it with Jeremy Corbyn.

"Because I have got a plan. He hasn't got a plan."

Well, I suppose you do at least have a big document, Mrs May...

Captain Z

But... it's not his job to have a plan. The only reason he would have a plan would be if you had totally and utterly failed in your job AND he felt the need to go beyond his remit to help you out for some reason.

Cuellar

Why is it being set up as a party political issue? Why is she debating Corbyn on the deal? Seems arbitrary, and as has been said just turns into a Tory v Labour issue, which it isn't.

pancreas

Of course it's a Lab vs Tory issue. Labour wants to stay in the SM. Tories don't. Labour cares about workers' rights, Tories just want to get out of paying tax.

Alberon

She wants to hold up Labour as the enemy to get her own troops back onside. It's desperate stuff really.

Panbaams

I enjoy how she's announced that she's ready to do a TV debate at precisely the moment that Amber Rudd's rejoined the Cabinet.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

To me, even the PR stuff, schizo interviews, wanting to be everywhere in the press and demanding TV interviews is already proof to me that this is May's last stand, as all of this is exactly what she's tried to avoid doing since becoming leader when she's been shown up as awkward, emotionally mute and on another planet to normal people. She wouldn't be doing all this unless she was in the deepest of deep shit, and I fully hope and expect Corbyn will come across better in the interviews than she will.


biggytitbo

He should walk any debate, as he usually plays very well with an audience when the filter of the mainstream shit media isn't between them. I do think he might face some awkward questions when it comes to how exactly he would negotiate a different deal and why the EU would agree to it though. Anything less leavey than what May has got would effectively be indistinguishable from just remaining as currently.

BlodwynPig

Best case scenario.

The day of the debate, May says she's suffering from a heavy cold and Amber Rudd will take her place. Corbyn rocks up and sees Amber on the plinth

"Fuck this joke, I'm out" he declares, but Amber mocks him relentlessly.

"Alright, Amber...let's do this!"

DESTROYS THE TORY PARTY ONCE AND FOR ALL

Zetetic

Quote from: biggytitbo on November 27, 2018, 11:39:27 AM
Well the EU don't want a 'no deal' either
But nor do they want to be messed about by fuckwits who think a substantially different 'deal' is possible given the interests of its member states.

An Article 50 extension is not impossible without a credible alternative negotiator but it's plausible the rest of the EU would tell us to get stuffed. They've provided the arrangement that they, collectively, can tolerate amongst themselves.


Zetetic

The ideal situation for the ERG lot is, I suggest, for May to stay in place until mid-2019, and to try to scrabble for the throne at that point.

Whether or not we 'crash out' or enter the transition period (which looks pretty much exactly as it always would have done) doesn't actually matter a huge amount to them, really, I would have thought. The former has some minor advantages for their broader agenda, while the latter has the advantage of being able to slightly more convincingly cast the EU as the source of all our woes for a bit longer.

biggytitbo

Quote from: Zetetic on November 27, 2018, 04:27:09 PM
But nor do they want to be messed about by fuckwits who think a substantially different 'deal' is possible given the interests of its member states.

An Article 50 extension is not impossible without a credible alternative negotiator but it's plausible the rest of the EU would tell us to get stuffed. They've provided the arrangement that they, collectively, can tolerate amongst themselves.


That's Jeremy Corbyns plan isn't it?

Paul Calf

Love the way biggy keeps putting 'no deal' in scare-quotes, as though the same bunch of venal incompetents who've sat on their hands for the last 40 years of anti-EU campaigning and the last 2 years of ACTUAL NOTICE OF WITHDRAWAL are suddenly going to pull a plan for a magic utopia out of their arseholes in two months and present it to an EU that's already said that negotiations are closed.

Please tell us which subreddit you're getting these talking points from bigs. I could do with a laugh.

As Biggy rightfully says, this isn't like an election debate. Corbyn can't rely on his socialist domestic policy to win this. It's irrelevant to the debate.

Labour have sat on the fence all through the article 50 process and tried to be all things to all men to tie up their leaver and remainer bases. Corbyn is incredibly vulnerable on Brexit and Labour's continued insistence that they'd be able to get membership of the single market with no freedom of movement just doesn't hold up to scrutiny. The EU have said countless times that the four freedoms are indivisible.

Like May, Corbyn has been kicking the can down the road as he refuses to face the reality of what the EU will give us. By agreeing to this debate, he'll also run out of road.

May might have a dreadful deal, but it's signed, sealed and ratified by the EU. It's unicorn free. He's going to have to speak the unspeakable and finally make a choice; No deal, May's deal or EEA.

Alberon

Or push for a second referendum. Seems the safest thing for him to do.

BlodwynPig

Resign from parliament during the debate. "Prime Minister, I am now merely a member of the general public and am free to say what we are all thinking..."

Howj Begg

Quote from: Alberon on November 27, 2018, 04:54:00 PM
Or push for a second referendum. Seems the safest thing for him to do.

Yep. Huxley's Babkins I appreciate your hardnosed analysis, but Alberon has just answered it, I think.

biggytitbo

Quote from: Alberon on November 27, 2018, 04:54:00 PM
Or push for a second referendum. Seems the safest thing for him to do.

And whats the question?

Huxleys assement is quite correct i think. There is nothing different Corbyn could negotiate with the EU that wouldnt be even closer to the remain position and thus even more pointless than Mays deal.

That's why I suspect, as loathe as I am to say it, that the EU and May may have snookered him a bit.

Zetetic

Quote from: Huxleys Babkins on November 27, 2018, 04:52:55 PM
The EU have said countless times that the four freedoms are indivisible.
And this isn't (just) an ideological stance of some apparatchiks - it's a fundamental principle that the member states overwhelmingly abide by because of the (perceived at the very least) mutual benefit.