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Is Theresa May still in charge? Brexit Discussion Thread Four

Started by Fambo Number Mive, January 03, 2019, 08:46:38 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Is Theresa May still in Cheers?

Yeah she plays Norm
8 (21.1%)
Yes as moral support, bellowing "FUCK HIM UP SAM" at opportune moments
8 (21.1%)
Nah mate of course not; died!
6 (15.8%)
No; her backstage attempt to lez up with Diane Keaton went awry
11 (28.9%)
Mary Celeste
5 (13.2%)

Total Members Voted: 38

Replies From View

Quote from: biggytitbo on January 21, 2019, 08:45:59 AM
If that was a joke account it only works because that's exactly what these people are like - The FBPE contingent on social media are so out there they've become beyond parody -

No, it works because it highlights some people's tendency to go with stereotypes and whatever allows them to unthinkingly reassert their bias rather than pay close attention to any facts.

The target of the joke is anyone who needs to give a cartoonish spin to the people they disagree with because reality is otherwise too complex and nuanced for them.

Paul Calf

The Brasseye Special only works because nonces are really like that.


olliebean

Quote from: Alberon on January 21, 2019, 07:21:16 AM
The backstop is not easily amendable. The EU's primary interest in it is to protect the rights of Ireland. I think if there was a way to change the backstop to do that and avoid breaking the Good Friday Aggreement they would already have suggested it.

She also wants to change the Good Friday Agreement. Completely delusional.

biggytitbo

Quote from: Paul Calf on January 21, 2019, 09:05:27 AM
Ireland's 'special local grievance' is that it doesn't want the North to return to the years of bloodshed, checkpoints, walls and troops on the streets. This is a callous, almost sociopathic statement. Not everything is a game.

And Ireland will never, ever agree to this.

I was thinking more of Spain, who almost blocked the original agreement. It's definitely sociopathic of you and others to use the spectre of the troubles to try and wreck the referendum result though, really nasty stuff. Especially as everyone involved has made it quite clear there will be no hard border under any circumstances, whether that's no deal or not. And that's true, ultimately the peace process is more important that EU rules and everyone other than those cynically wishing to exploit the situation for their own ends knows it.

Buelligan

I'm not even going to reply to this Biggy.  Learn something about Ireland (North and South) and about how British political interference has damaged it.  Damaged being a very mild word for what has been done.

Quote from: olliebean on January 21, 2019, 10:15:52 AM
She also wants to change the Good Friday Agreement. Completely delusional.

She's fucking insane. 

Once Upon A Time, Cameron and the Conservatives found a shit seed in their shoes.

They planted the little seed and it grew into a Referendum.  At first, everyone thought it looked like something nice to share.  But the bigger it grew, the more the little people had to take care of it and they began to argue about how best to do that but they kept doing it anyway.  Soon friends were fighting, families splitting up over the marvellous Referendum.  Then someone actually got killed.  And the people decided to get a robot in to prune it back a bit.

But, still, it continued to grow.  It's roots dug deep, disturbing things better left sleeping.  Fascists started shouting, racists started marching, parties began to split and whole countries thought about whether they'd be better off somewhere else.  The robot carried on feeding and watering, feeding and watering, round and round, something was clearly very wrong.

Finally, the roots began to dig up the dead across the water and that is when someone simply pulled out the plug on the Maybot.

Slowly all the mess subsided and happiness returned to the Land and the people resolved never to listen to Cameron or his kind again, unless Stevie Bear, Rupie Bear and Nige Bear told them to.  In which case they would obey unquestioningly.

Paul Calf

Quote from: biggytitbo on January 21, 2019, 10:39:38 AM
I was thinking more of Spain, who almost blocked the original agreement. It's definitely sociopathic of you and others to use the spectre of the troubles to try and wreck the referendum result though, really nasty stuff. Especially as everyone involved has made it quite clear there will be no hard border under any circumstances, whether that's no deal or not.

Which means that there'll be a 'hard border' in the North Sea, which means Loyalists will be mightily pissed off. The only difference here is that the bombs won't have shamrocks painted on them when they explode in densely-packed civilian areas.

This new 'NO U' tactic you've adopted is a bit pathetic, and no-one is buying it.

biggytitbo

Varadkar has already said he won't have bilateral talks with May about this, only as part of the EU. And he's also already said there will be no hard border in any circumstances, so if no deal does look like it might happen, I think there's a possible concession there.

Buelligan

You don't understand (I am charitably guessing), if Ireland refuse to build a hard border, the UK will have to build it.  If the UK don't build it, where is control over our borders?  How do you imagine any regulation or tax or law enforcement will be monitored or achieved?  If the UK do build a border, where is the Good Friday Agreement?  Cake can only be eaten once and we've had ours.

hummingofevil

Quote from: Shoulders?-Stomach! on January 21, 2019, 08:19:17 AM
Just as there is from Labour to Tory.

Not everyone "shifts along it" but clearly enough people's views on the world change with time.

This was explained in something I read a few months ago. The reason old people vote Tory as a percentage of population is that Tories tend to live longer. Regions of the UK with the highest life expectancies corrolate with greater wealth and Tory votes so percentage of Tory voters increases with age. It's literally a case of there being fewer Labour votes because they drop dead.

Specifically, about Brexit I think one factor that might support the idea of opinion shift is the concept of "taking a hit" to reclaim sovereignty. The argument I've seen a lot in vox pops where people are willing to accept a "temporary" (50 years according to JRM) rise in unemployment is surely a lot easier to swallow when you are already retired (and have a government who have consistently proven to develop policies in favour of their voting base).

The fact older people are more likely to actually vote just compounds these ideas.

biggytitbo

Ireland's relationship with the UK is already radically different than other EU countries, for obvious reasons, and we have many arrangements with ireland that predate the EU. There is no need for a hard border (and indeed there won't be one as everyone has made clear), certainly not if it threatens the peace process, and as Richard Tuck explains here, WTO rules already have provisions for this situation in any case - https://briefingsforbrexit.com/a-modest-proposal-for-the-irish-border/


Paul Calf

So a Brexit where Britain doesn't control its border with the EU is OK now, is it?

Alberon

Using war time provisions to avoid a hard border seems tenuous at best. No one wants a hard border, but if there is no customs union there has to be one somewhere. These are the options that I can think of.

1/ There's a hi-tech, effectively invisible one. PRO - keeps the border much as it is. CON - technology unproven.
2/ NI stays in Custom Union. PRO - Border in Irish Sea, not between Irelands. CON - DUP says no. Loyalists go apeshit.
3/ Everyone just ignores border. PRO - GFA happy, nothing obviously changes. CON - Huge gaping hole in immigration control to the UK. Unfair trading situation gets us sued by other countries, such as US, China, et al.

If any of your workarounds, Biggy, actually could work the UK (and indeed the EU) would have pushed it. The EU don't want us to go, but they want a managed exit better than us crashing out to WTO levels. That would hurt them, not as much as it would us, but it would still hurt.


Alberon

I know, we were trying to keep Biggy here, but he was too powerful and escaped.

Replies From View

Quote from: Buelligan on January 21, 2019, 11:27:02 AM
Cake can only be eaten once and we've had ours.

I'm not even that fond of cake, to be honest.


BlodwynPig


Zetetic

Quote from: hummingofevil on January 21, 2019, 11:34:40 AM
This was explained in something I read a few months ago. The reason old people vote Tory as a percentage of population is that Tories tend to live longer.
This might be a significant part of the apparent ageing effect.

But we can also see that more people born in 1930 have had a strong affinity with the Tories from since they started voting than those born in the '70s or '80s.

There are several effects at work.

Replies From View

Quote from: Zetetic on January 21, 2019, 01:17:04 PM
But we can also see that more people born in 1930 have had a strong affinity with the Tories from since they started voting than those born in the '70s or '80s.

Yes, people who don't realise what the Tories have become since around the 80s.

I imagine that there might have also been a pull towards the Tories in 2010 from younger people who had never experienced a previous Tory government, fell for the David Cameron rebranding project and were reacting to New Labour as the "establishment" party.

I'd tend to recognise factors like this rather than assume people flip over to the Tories on their 55th birthday as part of a process of becoming "wise" (which is how this information tends to be presented).