Poll

Who win wold power (verry acrate pole)  

Trump (R)
9 (14.1%)
Sandford (R)
0 (0%)
Walsh (R)
0 (0%)
Weld (R)
0 (0%)
Bennet (D)
0 (0%)
Biden (D)
2 (3.1%)
Booker (D)
0 (0%)
Bullock (D)
0 (0%)
Buttigieg (D)
0 (0%)
Castro (D)
0 (0%)
Delaney (D)
1 (1.6%)
Gabbard (D)
1 (1.6%)
Klobuchar (D)
0 (0%)
Messam (D)
0 (0%)
O'Rourke (D)
0 (0%)
Ryan (D)
0 (0%)
Sanders (D)
13 (20.3%)
Sestak (D)
0 (0%)
Steyer (D)
0 (0%)
Warren (D)
3 (4.7%)
Williamson (D)
0 (0%)
Yang (D)
0 (0%)
A Libertarian
0 (0%)
A Green
0 (0%)
One of the other ones
0 (0%)
Moat (R)
9 (14.1%)
Who fucking cares I dunno some cunt
10 (15.6%)
Guntrip
0 (0%)
Les Dennis
6 (9.4%)
Eddie Large
3 (4.7%)
Ralf Little
2 (3.1%)
A musician or actor who think they can make a difference and will ultimately fail
1 (1.6%)
Bensip Hammons
2 (3.1%)
Castro
2 (3.1%)

Total Members Voted: 64

Author Topic: US Elections 2020 thread  (Read 74424 times)

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1710 on: November 06, 2019, 05:27:43 PM »
Kentucky went fully Democrat in the election last night.

https://www.npr.org/2019/11/06/776723751/tuesdays-elections-show-impeachment-might-not-be-what-the-gop-hoped-for

Shouldn't that be Virgina gone fully Democrat. Looks like the Governorship should go to Democrats in Kentucky but State House and Senate will be retained by Republicans (don't think they had elections this year). Virginia though has Democrats flipping both House and Senate and holding Governorship as well; which can lead to quite a bit of legislative reform.

kngen

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1711 on: November 06, 2019, 05:28:57 PM »
Kentucky went fully Democrat in the election last night.

https://www.npr.org/2019/11/06/776723751/tuesdays-elections-show-impeachment-might-not-be-what-the-gop-hoped-for

Virginia, I think you mean. First time in 26 years.

This walking GOP cypher lost to the first Muslim woman representative in the Virginia Senate.



He tried to glad hand me and my wife at a local event for our kid's school a couple of months ago. My wife just smiled and said: 'You're going down, Glenn.'
Adding to this her (recorded in print) heckling of tea party scumbag Dave Brat before he lost his seat to his (admittedly pretty awful) Democrat challenger Abigail Spanberger, I have dubbed her 'The Queenmaker'

Famous Mortimer

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1712 on: November 06, 2019, 05:55:48 PM »
I could have looked at the article, but my brain was clearly "they're the same, right?"

kngen

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1713 on: November 06, 2019, 06:03:04 PM »
I could have looked at the article, but my brain was clearly "they're the same, right?"

They have Justified, while we have Homelands - I think they win.

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1714 on: November 06, 2019, 07:14:59 PM »


Totally normal, nothing up here.

Rich Uncle Skeleton

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1715 on: November 06, 2019, 07:55:06 PM »
Jesus..

Dex Sawash

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1716 on: November 06, 2019, 09:20:19 PM »
Where's Grandpa Semtex?


Ooops wrong account

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1717 on: November 06, 2019, 09:34:16 PM »
Virginia, I think you mean. First time in 26 years.

This walking GOP cypher lost to the first Muslim woman representative in the Virginia Senate.



He tried to glad hand me and my wife at a local event for our kid's school a couple of months ago. My wife just smiled and said: 'You're going down, Glenn.'
Adding to this her (recorded in print) heckling of tea party scumbag Dave Brat before he lost his seat to his (admittedly pretty awful) Democrat challenger Abigail Spanberger, I have dubbed her 'The Queenmaker'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50315490

Is she friends with this lady

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1718 on: November 06, 2019, 09:59:55 PM »


Totally normal, nothing up here.

couple of those cunts i don't even recognise

Urinal Cake

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1719 on: November 06, 2019, 10:11:59 PM »
In Kentucky it seems the result was decided by local issues and characters- hated Govenor, name recognition of the heir apparent and the Libertarian party doing it's best to split the right-wing vote. I think McConell is safe unless impeachment blows up in the GOP's face.

kngen

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1720 on: November 06, 2019, 10:39:07 PM »
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50315490

Is she friends with this lady

She's her campaign manager


(not really)

mojo filters

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1721 on: November 06, 2019, 11:43:31 PM »
In Kentucky it seems the result was decided by local issues and characters- hated Govenor, name recognition of the heir apparent and the Libertarian party doing it's best to split the right-wing vote. I think McConell is safe unless impeachment blows up in the GOP's face.

You hit most key top line takeaways there. The result of the KY gubernatorial race was certainly not any kind of bellwether result, due to very specific local factors.

If there had been more room for it to be indicative on the national electoral stage, the narrowness of the Democratic win (Bevin only lost by around 5000 votes) for the son of a popular two-term governor already elected to State AG, combined with the unpopularity of the incumbent - simply shows how well entrenched the GOP still is, despite the high levels of poverty indicative of folks voting against their economic interests.

The best takeaway for Democrats is the failure of both Bevin and Trump to weaponize national political issues, especially impeachment. The last state poll had Bevin up 5 points, just before Trump came in for a campaign rally on the eve of the election - hence one obvious takeaway is that Trump's clumsy style of crashing local campaigns can cut both ways.

The voting tallies suggest there was some kind of the latter effect, potentially related to that. Bevin previously won an off-year election with around 900,000 voting in total in 2015. Trump took KY by 30 points in 2016, from a total of 1,800,000 voting.

Yesterday the turnout was an impressive 1,400,000, around 150% of the last off-year gubernatorial election total. That the Democrat won the governorship by a slim majority in these circumstances, suggests both sides were unusually energised.

For once Trump tweeted something both accurate and pertinent for red state Democrats: aside from the governorship, the GOP handily won the other five state offices on this ballot.

Hence I'm reluctant to attempt to read too much into this particular result. A positive takeaway for Democrats should be the huge increase in turnout.

McConnell may have poor unfavourable numbers, alongside his red state-attractive 2020 Democratic challenger's superior fundraising (so far) - but beating him would still be a stretch, requiring both high turnout and sizable shifts in voting from the key urban and suburban counties.

In strategising for 2020, Democrats cannot afford to rely on the base that failed to turn up for Clinton in 2016. For key senate targets and presidential battleground states, they must focus on registering new voters and other effective GOTV tactics.

I'm sceptical of impeachment blowing one way or the other for McConnell. All signs suggest his obsession with cementing his place in parliamentary history, mean he'll conduct any impeachment hearing in a safe institutionalist fashion. McConnell wants to be remembered by a GOP that he knows that will outlast Trump!

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1722 on: November 06, 2019, 11:44:59 PM »
You hit most key top line takeaways there.

Stopped reading.

mojo filters

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1723 on: November 06, 2019, 11:49:40 PM »
Stopped reading.

Gotta love an engaged and informed electorate!

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1724 on: November 07, 2019, 12:09:54 AM »
Gotta love an engaged and informed electorate!

Just write like a normal person you weirdo.

mojo filters

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1725 on: November 07, 2019, 12:13:25 AM »
Just write like a normal person you weirdo.

You get the politics you deserve. Decisions are made by people who make me throw up.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1726 on: November 07, 2019, 12:21:41 AM »
The public will, nay, should be won over by jargon and granular bullshit. Otherwise they get what they deserve

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1727 on: November 07, 2019, 12:33:06 AM »

Urinal Cake

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1728 on: November 07, 2019, 02:04:19 AM »
Kentucky is really important because of Mitch McConnell outside that  I seriously  doubt the Dem nominee can overcome a 30 point deficit in 2020 but things happen.

mojo filters

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1729 on: November 07, 2019, 03:25:02 AM »
Kentucky is really important because of Mitch McConnell outside that  I seriously  doubt the Dem nominee can overcome a 30 point deficit in 2020 but things happen.

In 2014 Mitch McConnell beat his democratic challenger by 16 percentage points. In 2008 he won by 6. It's certainly an important race, but in 2020 he'll likely benefit from the coattails of whatever Trump bump goes on.

He's certainly not the only established red state republican with bad unfavorable numbers. He's been underwater by well over 20 points in every poll used by the RCP average this year.

In the last reported quarter, Amy McGrath raised $10.7m (with plenty of out-of-state support) to McConnell's $2.3m. However he (as is quite normal for senators towards the later part of their term) already has a healthy $10m in his war chest.

I'm not exactly certain on McGrath's anticipated policy towards superPAC funding moving forwards, but I'm sure that if polling indicates an uncomfortably tight race - McConnell will easily be able to access additional funding from both the NRSC and Koch type dark money.

There's no denying McGrath has got unusually good traction, as well as popular support for this challenge. I'd be surprised if McConnell beat her with the same spread as the national GOP candidate, however he's an old pro in this game - plus his Trump compliant wife Elaine Cheu (Secretary of Transportation) can only help.

The DSCC will focus their energies and money on the realistically winnable races in Iowa, Maine, Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina. Whilst there's obviously plenty of time for the numbers to move, a 30 point Trump state is probably going to remain a safe bet for a prominent sitting republican senator.

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1730 on: November 07, 2019, 11:52:04 PM »
Bloomberg looks like he'll enter the race. Maybe he can do better than the other m/billionaires polling at less than 3%- at least I hope he takes some of the heat out Buttigieg.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1731 on: November 08, 2019, 03:18:12 PM »
Kentucky is really important because of Mitch McConnell outside that  I seriously  doubt the Dem nominee can overcome a 30 point deficit in 2020 but things happen.

Mitch's prodigy got 100 000 more votes than Beven to win the AG seat.  Also the KY legislature can override a governor's veto with a simple majority so I don't think Mitch will be that upset losing a governor from all accounts he loathed.

Bloomberg entering the election is a fuck you to the Biden campaign. Its a little odd though as Biden is still polling strongly everywhere.


Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1732 on: November 08, 2019, 05:03:18 PM »
Honestly hope the DNC pushes Bloomberg through or some other shittery. Just trigger the revolution already, I'm sick of these people walking around undecapitated.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1733 on: November 08, 2019, 05:16:07 PM »
Honestly hope the DNC pushes Bloomberg through or some other shittery. Just trigger the revolution already, I'm sick of these people walking around undecapitated.

All the Bill Maher fanboys seem delighted. Comments like "at least billionaire made his money himself". Even the ones not thinking he should run kind of irked me "Why don't you use your money to support the candidate chosen" - not sure if I like elections just becoming a battle of who satisfies the rich billionaires and lobbyists most.

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1734 on: November 08, 2019, 05:18:33 PM »
All the Bill Maher fanboys seem delighted. Comments like "at least billionaire made his money himself". Even the ones not thinking he should run kind of irked me "Why don't you use your money to support the candidate chosen" - not sure if I like elections just becoming a battle of who satisfies the rich billionaires and lobbyists most.
It amazes me that the word cuck isn't reserved for these sad sacks who will prostrate themselves before billionaires and multi-millionaires, thinking that every dollar they made is a result of merit.

Urinal Cake

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1735 on: November 08, 2019, 10:59:36 PM »
There are a lot of Dem candidates are that are millionaires and quite a few are self-made (cough Beto). All of them are successful and well-off.
This is a particular American form of money/business worship. How can people just look at Bloomberg and not presume it's in his own self-interest to preserve his own wealth at the expense of the country.

Warren will do well out this week, she looks like a real progressive but is willing to talk to the other side.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1736 on: November 09, 2019, 03:34:24 PM »
How can you say the elections are "2020" unless they elect Sanders

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1737 on: November 09, 2019, 04:16:13 PM »
a real progressive but is willing to talk to the other side.

Isn't that an oxymoron?

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1738 on: November 09, 2019, 05:06:24 PM »
A progressive but they're a big cunting centrist

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #1739 on: November 09, 2019, 07:04:55 PM »
https://twitter.com/CarlBeijer/status/1192969220641951755

Warren just saying that billionaires are good because they did the hard work to make an amount of money that is apparently proportionate to the merits of their output, there.

She is pretending that you can be a millionaire without exploiting people and taking millions more than your fair share. Which is a pretty definite line in the sand at this point.