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US Elections 2020 thread

Started by Twed, January 26, 2019, 08:52:03 PM

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Best sandwich filling

Trump (R)
Sandford (R)
Walsh (R)
Weld (R)
Bennet (D)
Biden (D)
Booker (D)
Bullock (D)
Buttigieg (D)
Castro (D)
Delaney (D)
Gabbard (D)
Klobuchar (D)
Messam (D)
O'Rourke (D)
Ryan (D)
Sanders (D)
Sestak (D)
Steyer (D)
Warren (D)
Williamson (D)
Yang (D)
A Libertarian
A Green
One of the other ones
Moat (R)
Who fucking cares I dunno some cunt
Guntrip
Les Dennis
Eddie Large
Ralf Little
A musician or actor who think they can make a difference and will ultimately fail
Bensip Hammons
Castro
Gulf Holdall
Ham
Plain
Cook(D)
Bomb(D)

Bryan Cocks

Quote from: Pearly-Dewdrops Drops on March 10, 2019, 04:03:17 PM
You're approaching the election from the point of view of political pundits, not voters.

How do you think it's possible you're approaching this from the voter's perspective, then?

Quote from: Funcrusher on March 10, 2019, 04:23:04 PM
So they need a centrist, neoliberal female candidate, after that worked so well last time.

Can't be sure, but I'd guess there may have been other factors in play.

marquis_de_sad

Bryan, you said that Bernie won't do well because he's not a minority. I pointed out that he is. Does this have any effect on your analysis?

Bryan Cocks

Quote from: marquis_de_sad on March 10, 2019, 04:29:48 PM
Bryan, you said that Bernie won't do well because he's not a minority. I pointed out that he is. Does this have any effect on your analysis?

Not if I'm approaching this from the voter's perspective. I said he's not a minority that will rouse the left. I don't believe the Democratic base are looking for a revolution at this point, they're just seeking to prevent one.

Quote from: Bryan Cocks on March 10, 2019, 04:27:25 PM
How do you think it's possible you're approaching this from the voter's perspective, then?

Well Sanders consistently polls as one of the most popular/trusted politicians in the country, his policies poll as very popular, and his primary campaign is off to a very strong start.

But in general I'm skeptical of polls and I think anyone who claims to be able to predict what tens of millions of individual voters are going to do is lying, and thus I tend to just support the candidate with the best policies (aka the ostensible purpose of democracy)

Twed

I see we've got a new member who mostly posts about how only miserable centrist things can happen with dubious reasoning. Oh boy

Twed

Quote from: Bryan Cocks on March 10, 2019, 03:40:43 PMit ain't Bernie. America just isn't ready for that.
Based on...? You're going to have to show your working to explain how that's the case when an overwhelming majority loves his policies and he's the most popular politician in the country.

Ferris

Quote from: Twed on March 10, 2019, 06:24:01 PM
I see we've got a new member who mostly posts about how only miserable centrist things can happen with dubious reasoning. Oh boy

I think he's a new account for an old poster, without wanting to say who I think it is and why.

I've been surprised by the polls, and I actually think Bernie has a shot - I was of the same opinion as Bryan a few pages back, but it feels like Bernie has serious momentum.

rjd2

Quote from: Pearly-Dewdrops Drops on March 10, 2019, 04:05:36 PM
It's also important to remember that the U.S. still has the idiotic Electoral College. Which blue states that Hillary won is Sanders going to somehow lose to Trump? Meanwhile, Sanders did very well in the primaries in the key states that decided the election (e.g. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan). That's all the Democratic candidate needs to win.

Agreed. I know a lot of people were hyping Brown and klobuchar because they believed they could hurt Trump in those states, but Brown is not running and even if Bernie dropped out tomorrow, klobuchar would still get nowhere in a primary.

After that, its Bernie and Biden who are the front runners who could hurt Trump in those states. So Bernie is actually a practical choice.


Mister Six

Quote from: Bryan Cocks on March 10, 2019, 03:07:59 PM
That may or may not be true, but he's not going to win against Trump, so best if somebody else tries.

He has a better chance than anyone else. He'd have a good chance of flipping Michigan back to blue, for example. He appeals to younguns and rust belters alike, and unlike almost everyone except Warren he actually has political beliefs.

EDIT: Political beliefs that chime with a substantial proportion of American voters, too.

kngen

If the centrist Dems' philosophy is 'try even harder than last time to win over suburban Republican soccer moms while paying lip service to blue-collar voters and their desire for an increased minimum wage and Medicare for all' then I can see only one result, unfortunately.

Twed



I wish that were true, and that they were just pessimists. Really it's "better things really mess with my way of life and must be sabotaged".

greenman

Quote from: Twed on March 11, 2019, 03:07:16 PM


I wish that were true, and that they were just pessimists. Really it's "better things really mess with my way of life and must be sabotaged".

Moreso "I'v been sold the idea that better things will mess with my life rather than the reality that they'll mess up the lives of billionaires".

rjd2

Yang into 6th fav with bookies etc to be next president  (trump, Harris, Biden, Beto, Sanders) ahead of him. 

I don't think he wins, but the likes of Bernie could do worse than copy some of his ideas regarding UBI.

ajsmith2

Quote from: rjd2 on March 14, 2019, 12:32:43 PM
Yang into 6th fav with bookies etc to be next president  (trump, Harris, Biden, Beto, Sanders) ahead of him. 

I don't think he wins, but the likes of Bernie could do worse than copy some of his ideas regarding UBI.

Only just looked up who Yang is this morning, after being somewhat confused by the fact he seems to be getting lauded by the Alt Right/4chan crowd in 'only the president Trump could have been' terms that it's hard to define the sincerity of. This despite him hardly seeming like a big old racist. (beyond a few cherry picked out of context quotes apparently) and showing more nuance on border secutiy https://twitter.com/andrewyangvfa/status/1034834093597446145?lang=en. His futurism and meme-awareness seem to go over well with elements of that crowd.

https://www.thecut.com/2019/03/what-to-know-about-2020-presidential-candidate-andrew-yang.html

All seems part of a trend of the youngish meme aware segment of the Alt right appearing to break away from Trump orthodoxy, as DT congeals into being the corrupt, non-achieving mainstream he was outside of in 2016. I've seen some weird and somewhat disquieting scenes of 4chan and previously alt right types speaking with some admiration about folks like AOC and even Bernie recently, kind of proving that for many it's all a big 'outside the normie minstream' pose first with political convictions a distant second.


Mister Six

Beto O'Rourke has declared. I don't really know the arguments for or against him as I never really paid attention to the Texas race beyond hoping Cruz would fall, but I get the impression he's got a lot of charm and not much else.

Ferris

Quote from: Mister Six on March 14, 2019, 03:11:47 PM
Beto O'Rourke has declared. I don't really know the arguments for or against him as I never really paid attention to the Texas race beyond hoping Cruz would fall, but I get the impression he's got a lot of charm and not much else.

He's either a calculating neoliberal, or genuinely quite a nice person. I can't tell which. I can't think of a single policy idea he has though.

Potential VP material for me.


mojo filters

#438
Quote from: Mister Six on March 14, 2019, 03:11:47 PM
Beto O'Rourke has declared. I don't really know the arguments for or against him as I never really paid attention to the Texas race beyond hoping Cruz would fall, but I get the impression he's got a lot of charm and not much else.

Beto O'Rourke has already successfully finished his first official Iowa campaign event. It was carried live by MSNBC and CNN this morning, and well received by the DC commentariat.

I suspect he'll do well, assuming he continues in this vein and at a fast pace. His Texas senatorial race showed he had significant stamina, when it came to constant retail political campaigning.

Of the three early primary states, Iowa demands more of the latter. That's good for Beto, as he really only has a chance of winning in Iowa. With the depth of candidates in the Democratic field, that kind of early win will be needed for both momentum and fundraising.

New Hampshire will probably go for Bernie as in 2016, but if not Liz Warren has a good chance in that primary. South Carolina is the first primary with significant numbers of people of colour, with Harris expected to win there.

If Beto focuses on winning over Iowa caucus attendees, his campaigning style seems well suited to that contest. He will have to visit NH and elsewhere, but his best strategy is not to copy what I expect to see Sanders, Warren and Harris do, ie split their time over the 4 earliest states plus campaigning and fundraising in NY and CA.

As long as Beto continues to provide satisfactory answers to individual questions in Iowa, that could easily be enough to win there. Especially if his closest competitors are having to divide up their time more evenly across several states.

Caucus goers will be more interested in how effectively Beto addresses the issues they ask about moving forwards, rather than worrying about any pre-existing concerns from the professional pundit class.

Most well-informed Iowa caucus attendees pay close attention to candidates, going out to see all those who potentially interest them where possible.

I'm slightly surprised O'Rourke's wife is back in El Paso. High performing spouses are normally needed as key surrogates and "closers" for the principal. The grind of glad-handing retail politics involves a lot of effort.

If Beto is just a charming communicator, cleverly resuscitating rehearsed answers to each question - the smarter folks in Iowa will expose that pretty quickly. These people pay attention to the consistency of the answers provided by candidates, they are not afraid to challenge any perceived inconsistencies, whilst any answers perceived as inadequate will be followed up to a satisfactory conclusion, or not!

In addition to Beto O'Rourke's future performance, there should soon be a documentary release chronicling his last race (currently being edited). The filming began well before the 2018 senate race achieved national attention, so there should be good footage for folks to compare and contrast Beto as a little known outsider, with that of a viable challenger for that seat.

Unless there's some grievous error shown there, I would not expect that to impact on Beto's presidential race. Whilst the media often likes to look to the past to predict the future, most primary voters and caucus attendees are looking to the future already when vetting candidates.

I don't know if Beto O'Rourke is the real deal or not. Fortunately I have confidence in the system that is charged with making that decision!

mojo filters

Just to add - Beto's main competition in Iowa will likely be from Joe Biden and Bernie.

The former starts out with a big name ID advantage, whilst Bernie tends to attract a very loyal following already converted to his cause during the previous primary cycle.

Hence Beto has plenty of work to do!

mojo filters

Trump made some curious and critical comments this morning, about O'Rourke's "hand movements".

Given he was recently in California with new Governor Gavin Newsome, he must have a short memory - anyone who's seen an in depth interview with Newsome knows what absurdly memorable hand gesture excess looks like.

Newsome has ridiculously ungovernable hand movements, increasing exponentially as he speaks more passionately. Add in Gavin Estler's legendary mouth and you would see something really unusual and special.

If that's the best criticism Trump can muster, Beto looks like a good bet to take Trump on in general election debates - one of the key concerns identified by the Des Moines Register, from their experienced polling of Democratic concerns around qualities sought from candidates in Iowa.

Mister Six

Smashing insights as always, filters - thanks for that!

mojo filters

Quote from: Mister Six on March 14, 2019, 06:26:54 PM
Smashing insights as always, filters - thanks for that!

Thank you!

I'm particularly proud of shoehorning in a Chris Morris reference to two politicos called Gavin.

You won't get that on cable...

the absolute gall of Trump to accuse someone else of having weird mannerisms. talk about glass houses

mojo filters

Quote from: Monsieur Verdoux on March 14, 2019, 06:43:13 PM
the absolute gall of Trump to accuse someone else of having weird mannerisms. talk about glass houses

I think those glass houses are safe for now.

Trump is subject to the unstoppable force paradox. His tiny hands are incapable of launching any sizable immovable objects.

I suspect he'll just stick to breaking precedents and norms, given past form...

rjd2

Quote from: FerriswheelBueller on March 14, 2019, 03:24:22 PM
He's either a calculating neoliberal, or genuinely quite a nice person. I can't tell which. I can't think of a single policy idea he has though.

Potential VP material for me.

The 2 betting favs who seem to top the polls constantly for the dems are Biden and Sanders, they would not dare have a white straight dude as VP.

Quote from: FerriswheelBueller on March 14, 2019, 03:24:22 PM
He's either a calculating neoliberal, or genuinely quite a nice person. I can't tell which. I can't think of a single policy idea he has though.

Potential VP material for me.

The 2 betting favs who seem to top the polls constantly for the dems are Biden and Sanders would not dare have a white straight dude as VP.

In honor of Beto's run, it's a good time to revisit the now legendary Beto sex tweet


Ferris

Quote from: rjd2 on March 14, 2019, 07:13:49 PM
The 2 betting favs who seem to top the polls constantly for the dems are Biden and Sanders, they would not dare have a white straight dude as VP.

The 2 betting favs who seem to top the polls constantly for the dems are Biden and Sanders would not dare have a white straight dude as VP.

There's an echo in here!!

Quote from: Monsieur Verdoux on March 14, 2019, 07:51:00 PM
In honor of Beto's run, it's a good time to revisit the now legendary Beto sex tweet



What the fuck is all that about? Or
"The fuck" is what that's all about!

Twed

Quote from: rjd2 on March 14, 2019, 12:32:43 PM
I don't think he wins, but the likes of Bernie could do worse than copy some of his ideas regarding UBI.
Yang's UBI petrifies me. Give everybody $1000 a month and watch everything become more expensive to the tune of $1000 per month. Watch the meagre, existing benefits system use it as an excuse not to pay out. Watch employers pay less. Watch the $1000 not increase with inflation.

It's not even vaguely an amount anybody could live on. It's an absolute nightmarish idea that must not happen. UBI has to be a livable amount or it's a curse.

Twed

Beto's main policy is being the same Harry Potter house as you, but you have to tell him yours first.