Poll

Who win wold power (verry acrate pole)  

Trump (R)
12 (15.8%)
Sandford (R)
0 (0%)
Walsh (R)
0 (0%)
Weld (R)
0 (0%)
Bennet (D)
0 (0%)
Biden (D)
2 (2.6%)
Booker (D)
0 (0%)
Bullock (D)
0 (0%)
Buttigieg (D)
0 (0%)
Castro (D)
0 (0%)
Delaney (D)
1 (1.3%)
Gabbard (D)
1 (1.3%)
Klobuchar (D)
0 (0%)
Messam (D)
0 (0%)
O'Rourke (D)
0 (0%)
Ryan (D)
0 (0%)
Sanders (D)
15 (19.7%)
Sestak (D)
0 (0%)
Steyer (D)
0 (0%)
Warren (D)
3 (3.9%)
Williamson (D)
0 (0%)
Yang (D)
0 (0%)
A Libertarian
0 (0%)
A Green
1 (1.3%)
One of the other ones
0 (0%)
Moat (R)
11 (14.5%)
Who fucking cares I dunno some cunt
11 (14.5%)
Guntrip
0 (0%)
Les Dennis
7 (9.2%)
Eddie Large
4 (5.3%)
Ralf Little
3 (3.9%)
A musician or actor who think they can make a difference and will ultimately fail
1 (1.3%)
Bensip Hammons
2 (2.6%)
Castro
2 (2.6%)
Gulf Holdall
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 76

Author Topic: US Elections 2020 thread  (Read 86281 times)

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #90 on: January 28, 2019, 12:18:21 AM »

imitationleather

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #91 on: January 28, 2019, 12:47:56 AM »
I don't... What is that? It's the Colbert show, so I assume some degree of satirical intent, but I can't for the life of me figure out what it's supposed to be. And why can't she read off a fucking autocue?

Yeah what they hell is up with that? Surely reading off an autocue is half of what a politician does.

From what I've been reading today it sounds like Left-Wing Twitter ain't havin' no Kamala Harris. The stuff about her keeping people in prison so that they can fight wildfires for $1/hour is shocking. Actual slavery. I mean, I had a good idea that kind of thing went on, but someone having the brass balls to try running as the progressive African American Democrat candidate for President while being up to her eyeballs in it... Oooh, that's naughty.


Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #93 on: January 28, 2019, 03:16:15 AM »
Quote
CNN White House correspondent Jeff Zeleny said Sunday on CNN's "Inside Politics" that Clinton told people "as recently as this week" that she isn't "closing the doors to the idea of running in 2020."

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/427156-clinton-not-ruling-out-running-in-2020-report

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #94 on: January 28, 2019, 07:30:04 AM »
Yeah what they hell is up with that? Surely reading off an autocue is half of what a politician does.

From what I've been reading today it sounds like Left-Wing Twitter ain't havin' no Kamala Harris. The stuff about her keeping people in prison so that they can fight wildfires for $1/hour is shocking. Actual slavery. I mean, I had a good idea that kind of thing went on, but someone having the brass balls to try running as the progressive African American Democrat candidate for President while being up to her eyeballs in it... Oooh, that's naughty.

She seems very popular among Hillary fans though

greencalx

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #95 on: January 28, 2019, 08:09:10 AM »
Thanks for the Beto articles MV. His crime seems to be more one of not wanting to rock the boat, rather than Harris’ outright saying one thing and doing another. Across 20 odd potential candidates there must be more than just Sanders who’s willing to make a stand?

The whole thing is very depressing, and horribly familiar. You can see that party machinery fawning over candidates that have the superficial appearance of representing a marginalised demographic (y virtue of being black, female, gay, whatever) whilst actually having more in common with  mainstream white, middle class males. And when someone from that latter group pulls them up on their policies or record in office, they will be branded racist, misogynist, homophobic, whatever, instead of engaging with the actual substance of the argument.

Trump’s a shoo-in.


Blinder Data

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #97 on: January 28, 2019, 10:52:43 AM »
Hillary runs to make sure Kamala Harris gets the nom instead of anyone more left-wing. There's your conspiracy theory sorted folks

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #98 on: January 28, 2019, 11:05:29 AM »
I don't think there's a reality where she can run under any circumstances. It's just the arrogance of her even thinking about it, let alone saying it out loud.

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #99 on: January 29, 2019, 08:10:38 AM »
Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz to run "as a centrist" angering Democrats.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47033483

Personally I think the more choice people have the better. Democrats should focus on finding a candidate that can help the people of America and get rid of Trump rather than attacking people for daring to run against them.

Mister Six

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #100 on: January 29, 2019, 01:37:41 PM »
Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz to run "as a centrist" angering Democrats.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47033483

Personally I think the more choice people have the better. Democrats should focus on finding a candidate that can help the people of America and get rid of Trump rather than attacking people for daring to run against them.

The US remains a strikingly partisan country. Given how Trump got in despite Clinton winning the popular vote by a sliver, having an independent pulling votes away isn't useful for anyone. Especially a billionaire centrist independent who's offering nothing useful in terms of politics, and basically just blowing his money on a vanity project.

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #101 on: January 29, 2019, 02:01:55 PM »
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/427364-some-dems-float-idea-of-primary-challenge-for-ocasio-cortez

This article. She upset so many shit politicians. Article basically says "but it was THEIR TURN".

The Dems need full reform.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #102 on: January 29, 2019, 02:23:03 PM »
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/427364-some-dems-float-idea-of-primary-challenge-for-ocasio-cortez

This article. She upset so many shit politicians. Article basically says "but it was THEIR TURN".

The Dems need full reform.

The idea that any milquetoast Dem suit would stand a chance against her is laughable. They’d have to drop about half a billion into the campaign and even then it wouldn’t be a sure thing.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #103 on: January 29, 2019, 03:05:44 PM »
What a bunch of cunts. "Here is a politician that actually seems genuine, has progressive but not radical ideas, speaks to the young people who tend not to vote and is scaring the shit out of the republicans. But she isn't in our gang of old cunts so let's fuck her over".

Cunts

mojo filters

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #104 on: January 29, 2019, 03:36:33 PM »
The US remains a strikingly partisan country. Given how Trump got in despite Clinton winning the popular vote by a sliver, having an independent pulling votes away isn't useful for anyone. Especially a billionaire centrist independent who's offering nothing useful in terms of politics, and basically just blowing his money on a vanity project.

It should be noted that Schultz is technically touring his new book, "From The Ground Up" right now. His comments regarding a potential independent Presidential run were made in that context, and so far sadly the news hasn't done a very good job of covering the full story.

Since he first talked about this at one of his book tour events, it's been a big talking point on most cable news shows. So far, only one MSNBC host has actually noted this significant context - and suggested the obvious implications regarding a potentially cynical attempt to garner publicity.

All I've seen from a few CNN shows is the regular this is obviously dumb for anyone genuinely opposing Trump and Michael Bloomberg already made the key point that he didn't run as an independent in 2016 for fear of disproportionately taking votes from Hillary hence post his stint as the Independent NYC mayor he deliberately re-registered as a Democrat for the 2020 cycle talking point.

Fox has just jumped on the opportunity to celebrate yet more "Dems in disarray!" stories, alongside further using the "announcement" to (ironically) evidence political bias in the media. I love watching Fox hosts self-righteously criticising "the media" as if they are somehow completely removed from such categorisation!

Steve Kornacki did an excellent breakdown of all the third party candidates in the modern era, going back to John Anderson who genuinely frightened Jimmy Carter in 1980 - though ultimately Reagan won a dominant victory, Carter's loss was not affected by Anderson.

Ross Perot got the highest share of the vote for a third party candidate in 1992, I think around 17%. Though some Republicans blamed him for Clinton beating Bush 41, exit polling was pretty even across the country in showing that Perot took votes from both candidates very evenly and dispute such a high share - did not affect the outcome.

Ralph Nader and Patrick Buchanan were by far the most influential third party candidates in 2000. Bush 43 won the "official" final Florida tally by under 1000 votes, with the third party candidates getting around 4000 combined - exit polling indicating they disproportionately impacted Al Gore.

If Schultz is actually serious, this is thoroughly irresponsible and self-indulgent for anyone opposing Trump, let alone a registered Democrat (though he's the typical rich NYC type Democrat, like Trump and Gary Cohn were). What's sad is that he has a personally compelling story to accompany his enormous fortune, and a pretty positive one too - unlike Trump!

I think folks need to take a breath and see how this plays out. The only indication Schultz might be serious is that he already hired Steve Schmit, the Never Trump ex-Republican strategist who reluctantly ran John McCain's 2008 campaign.

Since Steve Schmit has been all over cable news criticising Trump since day one, as well as more recently hosting the excellent Words Matter podcast with Elise Jordan (Bush 43 staffer, MSNBC contributor, sometime focus grouper for Lord Ashcroft Polls and ardent Never Trumper) he must know the only honest advice to Schultz is that indulging some of his huge fortune in a third party Presidential vanity project, will only hurt the Democratic candidate in the greater scheme of things.

What's really dumb if Schultz is in any way serious, is that his registered Democratic credentials would have allowed him to indulge any such ambitions by throwing his hat into that party ring. Then he would also have a platform to present his own case whilst debating other candidates. Since the best outcome of third party runs is to raise specific issues, the 2020 Democratic primary process looks like that would be well suited to such self indulgence!

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #105 on: January 29, 2019, 04:21:04 PM »
I don't think he stands a chance. It's definitely going to be identity liberals in progressive clothing versus progressives.

An email from Elizabeth Warren pissed me off yesterday.



Quote
Wayne, Wall Street really, really, really, really, really doesn't want Elizabeth Warren to be president.

How do we know? They've come right out and said it:

"Bankers' biggest fear: The nomination goes to an anti-Wall Street crusader like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)...'It can't be Warren...' said the CEO of another giant bank."

The big banks know that Elizabeth will hold them accountable, so they're already pulling out all the stops to take her down.

The quote was actually "It can’t be Warren and it can’t be Sanders". I'm not one for the unity line, but it would be nice if Warren wasn't being competitively ambitious at the expense of Sanders.

mojo filters

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #106 on: January 29, 2019, 07:08:10 PM »
Don't underestimate Liz Warren. She has the most depth of any declared Democratic candidate so far, when it comes to both experience and practical implementation of sensible policies.

That probably means she will not get the nomination. Her lived experience from childhood through to participating influentially in the now-blunted Dodd-Frank (especially CFPB related) legislation, makes her story too complex for the regular political soundbite.

Were she to drastically refine her whole messaging strategy, she could make up significant ground. However she has been so explicit, it could equally be easy for an as-yet-unknown rival to cherry-pick from her substantial attractive platform.

I'm supposed to be an impartial observer. Yet in Warren I see a candidate who has arrived via the correct route - she got where she is through starting out from a working class background, subsequently entering politics having both identified both problems and solutions.

The notion of Warren invading Bernie Sanders' space is a false dichotomy. Bernie's policy positions are miles wide yet inches deep. Warren has not only workable plans, but valuable experience when it comes to implementation.

Kamala Harris has effortlessly rolled out the best start to a long campaign slog. However there is just too far to go to make definitive judgements/calls right now. Her previous career presents difficult yet not intractable problems, assuming the leftward Democratic swing continues.

Iowa caucus attendees are notoriously savvy, both when it comes to judging candidate quality, practical messaging capability and electability. This process is a relentless slog that effectively parses out the best candidates.

Experience tells us it's simply too early to predict. There's plenty of time for this race to turn on it's head before Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina results roll in.

This is the time to listen; watch debates and events unfold. Sadly though Mark Halperin has been very effectively #metoo'd - the predilection of lazy coverage to revert to shallow horserace clichés has not progressed as it ought to.

From a realistic perspective, it's pointless to complain about the disproportionate influence these traditionally early primaries will have. Thankfully California's decision to move up on the calendar brings a degree of sanity to these arcane rituals - incoming ex-San Francisco mayor and State Lt. Governor Gavin Newsome enters office with a nice budget surplus, hence the ease with which the LA teacher's strike was resolved.

Democratic infighting is a given, with such a broad field of potential nominees. There are potentially powerful names yet to declare.

Right now Warren is winning on governing, versus Harris winning the carefully crafted and expertly executed presentation fight. Gilibrand might have initially won over the liberal Colbert audience, but no one expects her to go far - Trump's mean tweets would kill any last vestige of forced charisma there, and early primary voters are smart enough to spot that flaw a multitude of miles off.

The reluctance of both Biden and Sanders to announce are simply a reflection of their flawed candidacies. Both, if selected, would enter office in 2021 around the same age as Reagan was - when he was legitimately under fire as he exited his historic presidency, with Iran-Contra hanging over him combined with questions over his faculties.

Waiting carefully and cautiously may be frustrating, but should eventually be realistically rewarding. The Democratic primary for 2020 will be a long haul process, hence cautious patience must be heeded!


Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #107 on: January 29, 2019, 07:54:04 PM »
The notion of Warren invading Bernie Sanders' space is a false dichotomy. Bernie's policy positions are miles wide yet inches deep. Warren has not only workable plans, but valuable experience when it comes to implementation.
Invade is the wrong word (she has the right to run and I may be supporting her depending on the circumstances) but they most definitely have a massive intersection in terms of potential voters. That absolutely splits the vote, and cutting Sander's name from a statement to make it look like you alone are a threat to bankers shows that we might be up for an aggressive primary campaign the weakens the left.

Mister Six

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #108 on: January 30, 2019, 01:32:16 AM »
It sounds like Tulsi Gabbard's already shat the bed: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/29/tulsi-gabbard-2020-election-1134055

Quote
Three people familiar with the presidential bid over the past few months describe a candidate who managed to be both indecisive and impulsive. Just announcing her candidacy became a minisaga that exhausted and bewildered people involved.

At first, Gabbard had vendors and staffers working through Thanksgiving weekend to get ready for a campaign rollout, only to pull back. Over the next several weeks, Gabbard went up to the starting line again — signaling to her team that a green light was imminent — only to make repeated retreats.

The pattern of false starts continued through Christmas and New Year's, frustrating people who worked through the holidays.

When Gabbard did finally announce she would make a 2020 run, her team was blindsided. "I have decided to run and will be making a formal announcement within the next week," she told CNN on a Friday night in a pre-taped interview for “The Van Jones Show.”

The Gabbard campaign website was not ready to go live; social media posts weren’t ready to be sent out. And Gabbard hadn’t signed off on the launch video.

The surprise announcement left Gabbard's aides working frantically on a Friday night to get everything up online. Jones himself was surprised by her announcement and did not expect it to come on his show.

In the days after the announcement, the campaign appeared to be frozen. Gabbard’s Instagram page occasionally posted 2020 campaign-style videos as she traveled back and forth between Hawaii and Washington. But unlike other likely or declared candidates, Gabbard didn’t follow up her announcement with a trip to any of the early 2020 presidential primary states, a routine move for any federal officeholder thinking about running for president.

Gabbard did ultimately release a launch video on Jan. 24, 13 days after her CNN interview. The campaign plans to have a formal kickoff in Hawaii on Saturday.

No great loss.

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #109 on: January 30, 2019, 01:33:53 AM »
Good thing for a non-starter to have an early out, rather than make the left look shambolic (and homophobic).

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #110 on: January 30, 2019, 01:38:19 AM »
https://twitter.com/ohheyjenna/status/1090292463187701760

The coffee chump is going to give us some much needed comic relief during these stressful primaries. Look at him. He thinks he knows what's going on. It's cute.

FerriswheelBueller

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #111 on: January 30, 2019, 01:40:06 AM »
Invade is the wrong word (she has the right to run and I may be supporting her depending on the circumstances) but they most definitely have a massive intersection in terms of potential voters. That absolutely splits the vote, and cutting Sander's name from a statement to make it look like you alone are a threat to bankers shows that we might be up for an aggressive primary campaign the weakens the left.

Nah, it shows she’s making a play for the left of the party (rather than ceding it to Sanders). Good for her - the more credible left-wing candidates, the better.

Warren now my pick of the bunch. You gotta have a white bloke in there as well to sell it to the electorate so Warren/Biden? Warren/O’Rourke? Warren/Brown? Who knows.

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #112 on: January 30, 2019, 01:49:29 AM »
I think that play could have been made without editing the quote.

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #113 on: January 30, 2019, 02:16:15 AM »
Kamala Harris got what she needed out of Medicare For All and is backtracking already: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/01/29/politics/kamala-harris-medicare-for-all-eliminate-private-insurers-backlash/index.html

I thought she was hoping to get in and then make a limp attempt at it and then say whoops too hard (the same excuse for Obamacare being awful).

FerriswheelBueller

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #114 on: January 30, 2019, 02:19:17 AM »
I think that play could have been made without editing the quote.

Yeah I agree, but that’s politicking for you. If the quote was “without a doubt, Twed is great - as is Ferris!” you’d be naive to put out the full line instead of editing it to just the first half. That’s all her press team did, and I think it’s fair enough really.

Good on her for staking out the left of the party - those economic policies are what the electorate is crying out for, and will make her more competitive in 2020.

Urinal Cake

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #115 on: January 30, 2019, 03:07:17 AM »
It sounds like Tulsi Gabbard's already shat the bed: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/29/tulsi-gabbard-2020-election-1134055

No great loss.
Yes we'll wait until the nominee says intervening in yet another country is a great plan. If you don't live in America Gabbatd is the candidate you hope wins.

It amazes me that the 'left' who believe in the rehabilitation of prisoners won't forgive a person who had bad opinions in the past to show contrition.

Mister Six

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #116 on: January 30, 2019, 05:25:58 AM »
Yes we'll wait until the nominee says intervening in yet another country is a great plan. If you don't live in America Gabbatd is the candidate you hope wins.

It amazes me that the 'left' who believe in the rehabilitation of prisoners won't forgive a person who had bad opinions in the past to show contrition.

Cool in-depth analysis bro.

Howj Begg

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #117 on: January 31, 2019, 02:17:18 PM »
Good thread.

At this highly early stage, Harris, Bernie and Warren are the frontrunners, and Bernie is clearly the best out of those if he can get a good campaign running, good momentum, and make alliances with a number of Dem congresspeople, who he can groom into being his successors - vp, speaker etc. That way the "age issue" can be neutralised. Love that the Bernie attacks are already full tilt, and afaicc, having zero effect on his popularity.

I'm def not going all in on Bernie though, as the "we should have a woman POTUS"  arguments are going to be hard to reply to. Except you know that many of those will be rooting for Harris or worse, in which case, hopefully, the left and centre-left will able to consolidate around Bernie or Warren.

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #118 on: January 31, 2019, 02:37:16 PM »
Yeah. We SHOULD have a woman POTUS, but she must be to the left of Thatcher.

If we end up with Warren and Warren doesn't become any less enthusiastic about key socioeconomic issues then I'll personally be satisfied.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #119 on: January 31, 2019, 05:58:33 PM »
Mitch McConnell not even pretending that the GOP want fair elections any more.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mitch-mcconnell-democrats-voting-rights-bill_us_5c51ee80e4b04f8645c716ce