Poll

Who win wold power (verry acrate pole)  

Trump (R)
11 (14.7%)
Sandford (R)
0 (0%)
Walsh (R)
0 (0%)
Weld (R)
0 (0%)
Bennet (D)
0 (0%)
Biden (D)
2 (2.7%)
Booker (D)
0 (0%)
Bullock (D)
0 (0%)
Buttigieg (D)
0 (0%)
Castro (D)
0 (0%)
Delaney (D)
1 (1.3%)
Gabbard (D)
1 (1.3%)
Klobuchar (D)
0 (0%)
Messam (D)
0 (0%)
O'Rourke (D)
0 (0%)
Ryan (D)
0 (0%)
Sanders (D)
15 (20%)
Sestak (D)
0 (0%)
Steyer (D)
0 (0%)
Warren (D)
3 (4%)
Williamson (D)
0 (0%)
Yang (D)
0 (0%)
A Libertarian
0 (0%)
A Green
1 (1.3%)
One of the other ones
0 (0%)
Moat (R)
11 (14.7%)
Who fucking cares I dunno some cunt
11 (14.7%)
Guntrip
0 (0%)
Les Dennis
7 (9.3%)
Eddie Large
4 (5.3%)
Ralf Little
3 (4%)
A musician or actor who think they can make a difference and will ultimately fail
1 (1.3%)
Bensip Hammons
2 (2.7%)
Castro
2 (2.7%)
Gulf Holdall
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 75

Author Topic: US Elections 2020 thread  (Read 85621 times)

FerriswheelBueller

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #30 on: January 27, 2019, 12:44:23 AM »
Yes I wonder how likely it is that Trump runs again next year - between being indicted, slipping into a diabetic coma or just plain get the hump and sacking it in, there's a lot of ways for him to go.

I wouldn’t bet on him not being the candidate in 2020. Here are my unscientific odds based on nothing at all except informed opinion and guesswork

30% he runs and wins (narrowly) again
65% he runs and is defeated by the democratic candidate (a lot of this depends on who they nominate)
5%* he leaves office due to something else (losing nomination, resigning, impeachment etc)

*edit, see further breakdown below

imitationleather

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #31 on: January 27, 2019, 12:47:03 AM »
Unless he's in prison or dead of course he's going to run.

FerriswheelBueller

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #32 on: January 27, 2019, 12:49:15 AM »
Unless he's in prison or dead of course he's going to run.

Yeah, to break my 5% down further

1% he isn’t nominated by the RNC because of an insurgent candidacy (Kasich/Flake/someone else)
1% he just resigns and goes back to his weird gold tower
3% successful impeachment (with prosecution in the senate)

Urinal Cake

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #33 on: January 27, 2019, 01:10:02 AM »
I can see Trump replacing Pence and replace him with someone like Guiliani who is more of an attack dog.

imitationleather

  • "The French... are famous... for their kissing"
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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #34 on: January 27, 2019, 01:12:23 AM »
I can see Trump replacing Pence and replace him with someone like Guiliani who is more of an attack dog.

The Alzheimer's Twins 2020.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #35 on: January 27, 2019, 01:32:43 AM »
3% successful impeachment (with prosecution in the senate)

I think the shutdown makes very clear that the Senate Republicans will never do anything in opposition to Trump. They may hate him but they are terrified of The Base. Doesn't matter what evidence comes out.

There's probably a 10% chance he just gets bored and quits.

imitationleather

  • "The French... are famous... for their kissing"
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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #36 on: January 27, 2019, 01:53:08 AM »
I just don't think his ego would allow him to go down in history as a one-term President unless he can't avoid it.

FerriswheelBueller

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #37 on: January 27, 2019, 02:10:00 AM »
I just don't think his ego would allow him to go down in history as a one-term President unless he can't avoid it.

That’s why I have it at such a low chance. He doesn’t want to do this job, but he doesn’t want to not do it either.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #38 on: January 27, 2019, 02:13:09 AM »
If he runs again, what will his campaign slogan be?

imitationleather

  • "The French... are famous... for their kissing"
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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #39 on: January 27, 2019, 02:16:17 AM »
I recall that straight after the last election he was saying he was going to run in 2020 with "Keep America Great". I'd love to see him try that.

Mister Six

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #40 on: January 27, 2019, 02:32:25 AM »
The Alzheimer's Twins 2020.

Got an extremely loud cackle out of me.

Oh god, Giuliani as VP, spouting weird shit 24/7. Would be a tiny sliver of consolation for the continuation of Trump's awfulness.

Mister Six

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #41 on: January 27, 2019, 02:36:01 AM »
I think the shutdown makes very clear that the Senate Republicans will never do anything in opposition to Trump. They may hate him but they are terrified of The Base. Doesn't matter what evidence comes out.

Given the drumming he's taken after the shutdown, and the effect it's likely had on The Base, a decent chunk of whom are federal employees of one stripe or another, I wonder about that. There's blood in the water now, however little, and the GOP are a bunch of cannibal sharks.

Urinal Cake

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #42 on: January 27, 2019, 03:34:27 AM »
Oh god, Giuliani as VP, spouting weird shit 24/7. Would be a tiny sliver of consolation for the continuation of Trump's awfulness.
Yet you'd take him over the quiet menace of Pence if Trump got impeached.

Mister Six

  • Half-masted, bass-boosted, sling-backed
Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #43 on: January 27, 2019, 03:59:44 AM »
Yet you'd take him over the quiet menace of Pence if Trump got impeached.

Oh god yes. The thought of Pence getting anywhere close to actual power horrifies me.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #44 on: January 27, 2019, 05:51:55 AM »
On a similar note I wonder whether Sanders might do well to run with a very strong running mate with the view that they will run in next time rather than him. Seems like it might kill two birds with one stone reducing criticism of his age and also giving someone younger some time to build up a bit of status.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #45 on: January 27, 2019, 08:56:52 AM »
If he runs again, what will his campaign slogan be?

“Arby’s, Macs, Fries“

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #46 on: January 27, 2019, 10:29:27 AM »
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a 2nd Trump win. The basis is that I suspect that people long ago formed their opinion of the man, and very few people will have changed their mind in the interim.

However it's not going to be plain sailing. Republican HQ is trying to stave off a challenge from within their ranks, I'm guessing on the grounds that if they don't nominate Trump then he, as the vainest man in politics (which takes some doing, given the number of vain men in politics), will no doubt just stand anyway and not care if the vote gets split. The GOP will no doubt think that better a notional Republican than any kind of Democrat. I doubt there will be a serious challenge; or, at least, not one by someone who's playing the long game and fancies a shot in 2024. Trump will attack any challenger viciously, and that's not likely to be good PR for a challenger.

The Dems have their work cut out for the same reason, and some problems of their own. On the one hand, Bernie running in '16 seems to have encouraged a wider field. But it looks like there's going to be nearly 20 candidates going through the primaries, at least to begin with. The party really needs to coalesce around two or three strong candidates after the first couple of rounds, or otherwise it's going to run the risk of looking noisier and more chaotic than anything Trump will get up to. And then what kind of ticket should they run on?

ETA: I know more or less fuck all about US politics, but this is how things look to me from a quick read around of various press reports.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #47 on: January 27, 2019, 10:54:08 AM »
I broadly agree with that but the one factor is the people who I call the having-a-laugh demographic. Can’t find statistic right now but there was a small but significant number of voters who went from voting Obama to Trump. Whether it’s short attention span or a type of mindset of short-termism and swayed by the new but there is always a group of people who vote on a whim for something different because “it’s a bit of a laugh“.

See also Brexit and the surprisingly good Corbyn vote last time.

It’s going to happen more and more with rise of populist parties. Promise the earth to disatisified voters and they’ll vote you in. But when they quickly realise they’ve been duped they’ll look elsewhere (which might mean alternative back and forth between radical parties or more worryingly an increasing shift right - it won’t be to left)

This is unknown with Trump and why he so desperately needs the to claim he’s got his wall (even if it’s not there he needs to claim it’s there). Then he has “delivered on the promise“ despite everything else good or bad. If he doesn’t build it then his base will stay home.

Theresa May and Corbyn realise the same thing here. Voters are so fickle they have to be seen to deliver some kind of Brexit or they done for with the For-A-Laugh lot.

Soup Dogg

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #48 on: January 27, 2019, 11:04:35 AM »
Remember when Donald Trump became president?  Funny hair, always with the saying stupid things. Spoke a bit like a year 5 student describing their holiday. "We had a villa in Spain and it was huge, it was the biggest thing I've ever seen, the pool was very huge, more huge than mum's car twice."

Warren 2020

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #49 on: January 27, 2019, 11:06:03 AM »
Also just watched that Hillary clip or her bashing Bernie and his voters and claiming they not Democrats. It’s such a bizarre lack of awareness of the current situation.

I suppose she is genuinely convinced by idea that she had the numbers last time with the popular vote so is she, or someone likes her runs again they will win with a bit of tweaking to campaigning in key states but to be opposition in a two-party state and tell your voters not to vote for your party is a disgrace.

Anyway. That wasn’t why I was posting. It was the comments. Is it just an affectation of some bit of US culture that doesn’t translate over her but what is it with the “OMG LOOK AT HER SHE IS GORGEOUS I LOVE HER I CRY EVERY TIME I THINK ABOUT HER ❤️❤️❤️” supporters she has? There are thousands of them. Collective Stockholm Syndrome? A Michael Cohen inspired bot-army of fake fansites? It’s so weird. Is it? Is it more weird than the “Oh Jeremy Corbyn” stuff that made me pray for acts of god to strike Glastonbury a couple of years back. Maybe? Fucking people man..

Soup Dogg

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #50 on: January 27, 2019, 11:13:59 AM »
I think for years Hillary was a real icon for a lot of American women of a certain generation. I think the brand of individualistic, hard-nosed, taking care of business feminism she represented was genuinely inspirational to a lot of people. It only really seems nuts post-2016. But then a lot of things do.

Urinal Cake

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #51 on: January 27, 2019, 11:20:31 AM »
Hillary- It's a geration thing, a woman thing, maybe even a cheating husband thing.

I too think Trump will win because his support- MAGAs and the GOP will hold on. Democrats and Independents are fickle and won't vote if their candidate doesn't get through. One wing sees the other wing as crazy, stupid idealists while the idealists see other wing as fundamentally corrupt. Further another four years of Trump may not be so bad if the Dems keep on holding the house and can get the Senate.

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #52 on: January 27, 2019, 11:26:53 AM »
Democrats and Independents are fickle and won't vote if their candidate doesn't get through. One wing sees the other wing as crazy, stupid idealists while the idealists see other wing as fundamentally corrupt.

Yeah, I was going to bring this up but couldn't figure out how to articulate it - thanks for that. It does seem to be that no matter where the Overton window lies, those towards the left of it seem to have a harder job of getting behind someone they basically agree with than those to the right of it.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #53 on: January 27, 2019, 11:37:28 AM »
It's not really a case of idealists, left wing policies like universal healthcare, a living wage and a higher marginal tax rate poll very well with the average worker, suggesting that there's a large proportion of non-voters who could be picked up if the Democrats were actually willing to become a left-wing party. The neoliberal centrist line has, contrary to popular belief, been a vote loser

Urinal Cake

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #54 on: January 27, 2019, 11:51:37 AM »
As the pay-as-you-go (any new spending will need to be offset with budget cuts or tax increases)  bill and (lack of) debate shows the problem lies in realisation especially in terms broad policies such as universal healthcare. Some Dems were sold that it didn't include universal healthcare etc. Some didn't care. Some thought it was fiscally responsible. Some thought it would make their donors happy. And some thought it would stop progressive policies such as universal healthcare.

Universal healthcare or at least the idea of it is as you say is popular. Trump would adopt it but how it's realised is the problem.

imitationleather

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #55 on: January 27, 2019, 02:47:34 PM »
The neoliberal centrist line has, contrary to popular belief, been a vote loser

It has been over here too. New Labour were successful in an era of record low turn-outs. They were dining out on huge swathes of the population being completely disillusioned with politics.

Clinton telling potential Democrat voters that she doesn't agree with to go somewhere else appeared to suggest her mindset is embedded in an attitude that only middle class people should be voting. The woman is a joke and detrimental to any chance of a Democrat winning next year. It is very much like Blair hanging around giving opinions that only result in people being put off the idea of voting Labour again.

Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #56 on: January 27, 2019, 02:55:02 PM »
The Dems have their work cut out for the same reason, and some problems of their own. On the one hand, Bernie running in '16 seems to have encouraged a wider field. But it looks like there's going to be nearly 20 candidates going through the primaries, at least to begin with. The party really needs to coalesce around two or three strong candidates after the first couple of rounds, or otherwise it's going to run the risk of looking noisier and more chaotic than anything Trump will get up to. And then what kind of ticket should they run on?

Hilary to swoop in at the national convention and get the nomination from the party hierarchy as the unifying candidate, despite not standing in any of the primaries.

Trump wins by landslide, Russia blamed, Trump hailed as presidential by the liberals when he drops a nuclear bomb on Iran.

Funcrusher

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #57 on: January 27, 2019, 03:01:46 PM »
How shit are the Democrats in 2019 that on one has much hope of them beating a brainless lunatic with the emotional maturity of a five year old? Maybe Chris Hedges is right to advocate abandoning them altogether. Stein 2020!

Twed

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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #58 on: January 27, 2019, 03:13:55 PM »
Here's Kamala Harris being asked her favorite songs for various situations, trying to make it look natural when she's choosing from a list carefully curated to make it look like she hasn't spent the last 20 years hurting black people: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qo2482G1gog

The only exception is the reference to Morning Joe, to keep old, centre-right people on side.

Every single choice is a calculation. And then she dances, like that AOC they have now.

A Tribe Called Quest indeed. They probably had to write songs because of her.

imitationleather

  • "The French... are famous... for their kissing"
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Re: US Elections 2020 thread
« Reply #59 on: January 27, 2019, 03:16:28 PM »
Here's Kamala Harris being asked her favorite songs for various situations, trying to make it look natural when she's choosing from a list carefully curated to make it look like she hasn't spent the last 20 years hurting black people: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qo2482G1gog

Every single choice is a calculation. And then she dances, like that AOC they have now.

A Tribe Called Quest indeed. They probably had to write songs because of her.

Wow. Truly toe-curling.