Tory leadership contest?

[ajsmith2]

LIVE FOR TODAY

is her motto and very good it is too

Imagine May singing this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySjxZDT_5SA

With Creed Bratton from The Office standing behind her.

[Jittlebags]

How are the Brexit numbers going to change if the Golden Deceiver BoJo lands in the job? Surely you need to mix it up with a GM to unblock the U Bend.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Yougov reckons the Tory members will go for Boris: https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1129434213160296448

Will Tory MPs be guided by their members or will they stick to their knowledge of Johnson?

Too many members of the public are still fooled by Johnson's superficial image. The media love him because he gives them copy with his antics. He knows how to use the media. And his decision to vote for May's deal has been forgotten by a lot of Tory members.

It's important to remind non-political people and Tory members of what Johnson is really like.

[greencalx]

Looks like this might be on now, lads.

I've been trying to work out what strategies and positions contenders might take, particularly on Brexit. It seems to me the options are:


1. The no deal (or, more accurately, do nothing) position.

Has the advantage that the incumbent doesn't actually have to do anything - the clock will tick down to Halloween and that will be that. With the additional advantage of being able to plan for three months to stop it going arse over tip. Might claw back votes from the Brexit party. (But, equally, might not).

This strategy will appeal to Boris, Leadsom and probably a bunch of others. But why have any of them when you can have Boris? The risk is that anti no-deal Tories might grow a spine and resign the whip if Boris gets in. But they won't, because they are Tories. And with no votes needed, there will be nothing to rebel against. If they want to stop this from happening, they will need to get Boris off the ballot before it goes to the members. Expect skullduggery.


2. The try-where-May-failed position.

Valiantly try and lacquer that turd of a withdrawal agreement. Maybe a bit of charisma and a few tweaks (and backhanders) might be enough to stop the ERG roasting you, and then you will be done.

You'd be mad to attempt this, but I could possibly see some variant of this strategy appealing to May loyalists like Hunt and Gove.


3. The national unity position.

Fuck the ERG and the Brexit party and get Labour on your side by basically accepting their compromise position, customs union, 2nd ref and all. Has the advantage of being something that might actually get through parliament, with the added bonus of being able to blame Corbyn when it all goes wrong. Unlikely to be a vote winner, so won't happen. Could appeal to Rudd and wild-card Davidson, neither of whom would win a contest (Rudd on account of her slim majority; Davidson on account of her Scottishness).


4. The let's-talk-about something else position.

Let's face it, we're never going to get anywhere with Brexit, so let's focus on more important domestic issues instead. Give a sufficiently convincing impression of incompetence that an A50 revocation looks like an accident ("oh sorry, I clicked 'reply to all'. Oh well, no harm done"). I think that's unlikely outside of TINGE.

[imitationleather]

Liz Truss has bowed out?! No slap-up meal at Ury for us, then. :(

[JesusAndYourBush]

On the news they explained the process of the leadership contest: a long drawn-out shitshow through June & July, during which time May continues to be PM.  Fuckssakes.

[Replies From View]

Who are June and July, and what does it mean "through" them?

[greencalx]

On the news they explained the process of the leadership contest: a long drawn-out shitshow through June & July, during which time May continues to be PM.  Fuckssakes.

I think that's part of the reason why they had a coronation last time. I don't think they will make that mistake again.

To be fair, it's not much quicker on the other side of the house.

[Fambo Number Mive]

The focus on the leadership candidates will mainly be about Brexit, but they need to be asked about many other things like what they will do about abuse in the care system.

[Alberon]

Gove is running (not for his life, sadly) so the contest against Johnson will step up a notch. Every other candidate will be trying to take Boris down if only because he's the front runner rather than principles.

[greencalx]

Farage has blasted Boris as not being a true Brexit believer, so if he won't win back the Brexit vote there's little reason to have him at the helm.

[Fambo Number Mive]

McVey wants an invisible Brexit  border: https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1132565899918106624

Dominic Raab says there is already "headroom" for £15bn tax cuts. That's another £15bn less for public services which are already barely coping.

Dom Raab asked how he will fund his 5p cut in the basic rate of income tax

He says he will cut down the number of Whitehall departments and talks about making significant efficiencies in public sector procurement

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1132581245018431490

If Raab gets in he will ramp up austerity - although I suspect any of the candidates will using Brexit as an excuse.

[Tommy Robwatson]

Raab gave a good showing on Marr. Be interesting to hear Baker.

[Paul Calf]

McVey wants an invisible Brexit  border: https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1132565899918106624

Dominic Raab says there is already "headroom" for £15bn tax cuts. That's another £15bn less for public services which are already barely coping.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1132581245018431490

If Raab gets in he will ramp up austerity - although I suspect any of the candidates will using Brexit as an excuse.

I do wonder what's now going through the minds of the shit-for-brains Lexit dickheads.

[mothman]

I'm sure neither is widely loved round here, but Rawnsley and Cohen in fine form today on the leadership contest.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/26/what-makes-tories-think-anyone-must-be-better-than-theresa-may

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/25/the-tories-have-abandoned-thought-in-favour-of-believing-their-own-lies

[Jerzy Bondov]

The focus on the leadership candidates will mainly be about Brexit, but they need to be asked about many other things like what they will do about abuse in the care system.

Allow me to answer this one on behalf of all present and future candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party: "Fuck all"

[Fambo Number Mive]

True, but I do think the media at least needs to hold them to account for this.

[Fambo Number Mive]

This is the kind of crap the media actually focuses on: https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1132236824976547840

[idunnosomename]

whoever wins

WHOEVER WINS

WHOEVER WINS.....



fuck

[Fambo Number Mive]

Raab on food banks (0:50 onwards) https://twitter.com/LeftieK13/status/1132377874630156288

[Darles Chickens]

Frustrated that no one picked him up in that clip on the economic illiteracy that the "debt will start to come down" while the "deficit has come down from [X] to [Y]" (but not eliminated).  If there's still a deficit, then debt continues to increase, albeit by a smaller amount.  Either he's an idiot, or he's playing us all for idiots.  A perfect contender for next Tory leader, frankly.

[olliebean]

On the news they explained the process of the leadership contest: a long drawn-out shitshow through June & July, during which time May continues to be PM.  Fuckssakes.

It could be worse than that. The Tories still don't have a parliamentary majority. AIUI, the leader of the largest party doesn't automatically become PM; they have to show that they have majority support in Parliament. So if the DUP don't play ball, they'll have to come to an arrangement with some other party.

If the new Tory leader can't command the support of a majority in the Commons, I gather Theresa May remains as PM by default until they, or someone else, can.

It probably won't be an issue, though, as I imagine the Chiggers would jump over themselves to enable the Tories given the chance.

[imitationleather]

It could be worse than that. The Tories still don't have a parliamentary majority. AIUI, the leader of the largest party doesn't automatically become PM; they have to show that they have majority support in Parliament. So if the DUP don't play ball, they'll have to come to an arrangement with some other party.

If the new Tory leader can't command the support of a majority in the Commons, I gather Theresa May remains as PM by default until they, or someone else, can.

It probably won't be an issue, though, as I imagine the Chiggers would jump over themselves to enable the Tories given the chance.

Cable would probably decide he wasn't going after all if he could get back with the Tories.

[greencalx]

Would a new leader need to prorogue parliament and start a new session - or can they just continue with the old one? For that matter, is there any particular need to have a Queens speech each year? Does it confer any kind of advantage?

[DistressedArea]

My heart says Boris, because its about time we had a fictional character as Prime Minister.

I'll probably be voting for Will Quince though.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Gove has actually had a good idea. Whether he will stick to it is another matter: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/27/michael-gove-to-pledge-free-citizenship-for-3m-eu-nationals

Will the other candidates follow Gove on this?

Talking of Gove, you can read about his time presenting on A Stab In The Dark here: https://www.cookdandbombd.co.uk/forums/index.php/topic,73414.0.html

[kalowski]

Never forget

[Buelligan]

On the news they explained the process of the leadership contest: a long drawn-out shitshow through June & July, during which time May continues to be PM.  Fuckssakes.

What would happen if May decided during that time to call a General Election?

[greencalx]

What would happen if May decided during that time to call a General Election?

Fixed term parliament act doesn't let her. I mean she could try but there would need to be a 2/3 majority which, under those circumstances, she's not going to get. Nice idea though.

The alternative would be to hold a vote of no confidence in herself. Which, being May, she would lose.

[Zetetic]

Or she just resigns as PM. (And maybe David Lidington or someone, I don't know, gets quickly decided as the bloke to recommend to the Queen to install for a few weeks on the strict understanding that he sits on his hands.)