Tory leadership contest?

[Head Gardener]

best way to settle it

[Howj Begg]

"Tory Brexiteer on news Theresa May will quit once Brexit delivered: 'It sounds all great in here and the usuals are clapping. But there's nothing substantive in it. No date. No timeline. No strategy. No clarity. This will look worse in the morning than it does right now.'" regurgitates Sky reporting machinery.

now what else does that sound like

[Panbaams]

But she still needs DUP votes and they (if reports are to be believed) aren't sure that any of May's potential successors wouldn't screw over Northern Ireland.

[Zetetic]

If she loses her deal she'd be forced out.

How? Why?

(I mean I'd pack it in then, but...)

I still believe the best setup for any of the scum hoping to follow May is to have her carry as much shit as possible - most obviously traversing whatever the Brexit boundary actually ends up being - so they can disclaim as much responsibility for anything that follows as possible.

[Squink]

"I have heard very clearly the mood of the parliamentary party."

Can you hear a mood? What does it sound like?

[Sin Agog]

To be fair, if there was ever a place in the world where you can hear a mood, it's inside the Houses of Parliament.

[Howj Begg]

Can you hear a mood? What does it sound like?

[Squink]

Woouueerrrr

[Blumf]

I still believe the best setup for any of the scum hoping to follow May is to have her carry as much shit as possible - most obviously traversing whatever the Brexit boundary actually ends up being - so they can disclaim as much responsibility for anything that follows as possible.

That must be their plan, but I'm beginning to wonder if May knows this.

Conjurers up images of high ranking party members trying to explain it to her before giving up, resigned to having to forcefully push her out.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

How? Why?

If you look aside of the strict mechanics of what it takes to depose/force a resignation of a PM, a number of soft power reasons pretty much cement the fact she would be left directionless, without further support, and virtually nil confidence either from the cabinet let alone the house of commons. She would have no ability to project authority.

Granted, that isn't a dramatic change from where she is anyway, but if she loses by an insurmountable margin (I reckon 40+ would do it, but 70 would be the final verdict) then any chance of her brokering anything is finished - others will take over. She will go before seeing her opponents drive this over head, partly to spare herself the humiliation but also in the knowledge that she would not survive a leadership challenge.

Her authority and future is now entirely bound to this deal passing. If it doesn't pass by a narrow margin she may have 1 final crack at it.

[greencalx]

My 7yo son has pointed out the obvious problem with May stepping down should her plan go through, which is that it will be up to some other fucker to implement it. Though he didn't put it quite like that.

[Replies From View]

My 7yo son has pointed out the obvious problem with May stepping down should her plan go through, which is that it will be up to some other fucker to implement it. Though he didn't put it quite like that.

Did he say "cunt"?

[BlodwynPig]

Anyone heard from our correspondent in Barnsley. Hope he hasn't had a Road To Damascus moment and is arming up.

[a duncandisorderly]

My 7yo son has pointed out the obvious problem with May stepping down should her plan go through, which is that it will be up to some other fucker to implement it. Though he didn't put it quite like that.

so, the same shit cameron pulled. nothing clairvoyant about that, though it's nice to know the lad's paying attention.

hunt- failed jam salesman. imagine that twat running things. >shudder< I think I'd rather may stayed put, at least until there's a massive sea-change in the public's taste for socialism.

[Zetetic]

Granted, that isn't a dramatic change from where she is anyway,

Mmm.

She will go before seeing her opponents drive this over head, partly to spare herself the humiliation but also in the knowledge that she would not survive a leadership challenge.

I'm not convinced by this, and not just because procedure is on her side.

There's still no clear alternatives for the leadership or for a Tory-owned Brexit (noting the indicative votes may change this picture). As such there's no reason for anyone considering giving her a shove to be confident that they won't end up with something far worse by their reckoning. At this point, the lack of suitable procedure becomes more relevant because they're having to cobble together a 'soft power' path, as you put it.

Particularly if she loses on the WA again - that would show that the ERG lack confidence that they can take power in her aftermath (even if it also suggests that they don't think too-soft-a-Brexit is a real risk under May).

I'd pack it in at that point, but then I'd have packed it in a while ago.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

so, the same shit cameron pulled. nothing clairvoyant about that, though it's nice to know the lad's paying attention.

hunt- failed jam salesman. imagine that twat running things. >shudder< I think I'd rather may stayed put, at least until there's a massive sea-change in the public's taste for socialism.

Well don't forget the Tories still have no idea what their future policy on Europe is, and given they're still technically the government, they will have to decide what this is while not losing the support of the DUP or splitting the party entirely, as is still suggested will happen.

Yes, May managed to avoid all that for a while by condensing most of the divisive politics to a matter of 6 months, but if the deal goes through then the post-May administration will be plunged headfirst into the font for their christening.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Mmm.
I'm not convinced by this, and not just because procedure is on her side.

There's still no clear alternatives for the leadership or for a Tory-owned Brexit (noting the indicative votes may change this picture). As such there's no reason for anyone considering giving her a shove to be confident that they won't end up with something far worse by their reckoning. At this point, the lack of procedure becomes more relevant because they're having to cobble together a 'soft power' path.

Particularly if she loses on the WA again - that would show that the ERG lack confidence that they can take power in her aftermath (even if it also suggests that they don't think too-soft-a-Brexit is a real risk under May).

I'd pack it in at that point, but then I'd have packed it in a while ago.

To explain my change of view, I think it's apparent now that the Tory party has moved on from her - no-one is coming out to bat for her anymore above token spokesperson stuff. She's broken the whips, she has lost the cabinet's trust that she has a plan, the leadership competitors are already getting their campaigns underway and she can't sack anyone. In fact she hasn't even filled the vacant positions, one which has been vacant for 2 months. I think that provoked tonight's (typically cunty caveated) announcement.

I think they will rally around her for one last heave at getting this done, but this time motivated by the prospect of moving on from her as leader. If they lose then the obvious conclusion is that the Commons has no-confidence in the government.

[greencalx]

Kuenssberg described May's move as "inevitable". Don't remember her predicting it though.

[Ray Travez]

How? Why?

(I mean I'd pack it in then, but...)

I still believe the best setup for any of the scum hoping to follow May is to have her carry as much shit as possible - most obviously traversing whatever the Brexit boundary actually ends up being - so they can disclaim as much responsibility for anything that follows as possible.

I think that was always the plan, for whoever got the job at that time. She's a fall guy (woman?)

[BlodwynPig]

I think that was always the plan, for whoever got the job at that time. She's a fall guy (woman?)

Last year my wife was at some women in science event in Europe and one speaker had a few slides on the history of setting women up for the fall when powerful men didn't want to be humiliated and needed to protect their image of being infallible. One case study was Mrs. May.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

A pretty worthless conspiracy given that so many men have come to power and caused fuckups of their own accors that literally no-one alive thinks they're infallible.

Surely the sexism in this context is claiming May only rose to power because men allowed her to, rather than her being preferable (at the time) to the other options.

[BlodwynPig]

A pretty worthless conspiracy given that so many men have come to power and caused fuckups that no-one alive thinks they're infallible.

Word for word what I told my wife. Dog house since.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Jacob Rees-Mogg tells @talkRADIO he categorically will not stand for the Tory leadership

Will he change his mind on this like he did with May's deal?

[Replies From View]

Will he change his mind on this like he did with May's deal?

He wants to wait until the Brexshit has been thoroughly rinsed away.  The next Tory leader is going to be fucked by the same processes that fucked May.

[Paul Calf]

Gove now favourite to win a leadership election with most bookies.

[Paul Calf]

Fucking Gove.

Gove.

[big bottomed anarchist]

I don't know about that. He has to win with MPs and then the membership. The booky system is too crude to deal with this. They've always favoured Boris, when it's clear that he has very little chance of getting into the final two.

[jobotic]

He must have a good chance, he is Murdoch's man after all. Literally.

[Huxleys Babkins]

The only chance Johnson's got is if all the Brexiteers in the party coalesce around him. I'd suggest after yesterday's performance where he gleefully dropped all of his hard Brexit principles at the slightest sniff of number 10 that he's basically fucked off any chance of that happening.

Gove might just be able to get support from both wings of the party. He's spent years keeping his powder dry. The only minister of the Cameron government to support Brexit from the start, yet always fiercely loyal in cabinet, even when things don't suit his own personal agenda.

[Space ghost]

best way to settle it

9.2mb GIF

please have mercy!