Author Topic: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread  (Read 23572 times)

Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1050 on: April 11, 2019, 09:18:52 AM »
Could Johnson ammounce a no deal Brexit if he was PM?

I know these Legend Tarquins would see getting chucked out for being obnoxious cunts as a badge of honour.

Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1051 on: April 11, 2019, 09:57:52 AM »
Could Johnson ammounce a no deal Brexit if he was PM?

I know these Legend Tarquins would see getting chucked out for being obnoxious cunts as a badge of honour.

No, whatever happens needs parliamentary scrutiny. However, what he could do is simply let the clock run out. No deal happens by default and is the easiest outcome to arrive at in a hung parliament.

The question is whether he really wants No Deal and would be prepared to let it happen on his watch, or whether No Deal is simply a tool he's using to damage the government and enhance his own leadership campaign.

Obviously, it's the latter.

Fambo Number Mive

  • Golden Member
  • *****
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1052 on: April 11, 2019, 10:23:30 AM »
Never heard of Brexit Minister Lord Callanan before today. Had anyone else?

Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1053 on: April 11, 2019, 10:52:59 AM »
I guess I'd heard the name. Have you heard of Robin Walker? I only know Kwarteng from his docu work really and of course James Cleverly of Braintree is famously the stupidest man in the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_for_Exiting_the_European_Union

Fambo Number Mive

  • Golden Member
  • *****
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1054 on: April 11, 2019, 10:59:25 AM »
Not Robin Walker, but like you I know Kwarteng and Cleverly.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

  • Baldness exposure gust
    • http://jackanderton.jamendo.net/
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1055 on: April 11, 2019, 11:10:31 AM »
Like greencalx I'm wondering what this time is going to be used for? No time pressure now to push May towards a deal with Labour, and likewise the ERG may decide to hold tight for now, knowing the EU will be less likely to bail May out next time, and No Deal will become a real prospect again.

I assume Letwin/Cooper will keep grinding parliament towards a majority for something or other, but this breathing space makes parliament less likely to choose anything.

Does May go for a general election when there are council and European elections to come? The Tories could suffer big time.

Buelligan

  • STOP being afraid
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1056 on: April 11, 2019, 11:27:55 AM »
I might be wrong but I think part of it is to bore the arse off of everyone.  Little tub-thumpers like Francois and Farage can only hold an audience whilst the blood is hot, these are their vinegar strokes, they can't keep it up forever. 

Shrill, shriller, shrillest, beyond human hearing or interest, that's how it goes.

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1057 on: April 11, 2019, 03:28:20 PM »
It's going to be difficult for anyone to want to run. You'd have to quit your job in order to be an MEP for possibly just a couple of months.

Cuellar

  • Push off my wire
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1058 on: April 11, 2019, 03:34:57 PM »
I'll do it. Bored with job anyway.

Vote for me! I'll take a fat MEP salary for a couple of months and then claim asylum in Belgium. Bloody love Belgian beers etc., it'd be great. And if that isn't an inspiring platform to vote for you can all eff off.

Replies From View

  • Rubbing linseed oil into the school cormorant.
  • Golden Member
  • *****
  • Gargoyles have milk bags.
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1059 on: April 11, 2019, 03:55:15 PM »
It's going to be difficult for anyone to want to run. You'd have to quit your job in order to be an MEP for possibly just a couple of months.

Pays well though.

BlodwynPig

  • Throwing two dogs at a goblin
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1060 on: April 11, 2019, 05:18:17 PM »
It's going to be difficult for anyone to want to run. You'd have to quit your job in order to be an MEP for possibly just a couple of months.

Lectures should be finished soon

Zetetic

  • Burying isn't the same as killing.
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1061 on: April 11, 2019, 05:31:19 PM »
No, whatever happens needs parliamentary scrutiny. However, what he could do is simply let the clock run out.
Or 'yes', then - barring VoNC and the like.

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1062 on: April 13, 2019, 01:02:29 PM »
Do I have it right that now an October extension has been agreed, MPs have gone on their Easter break and all this will kick off again in about 5 months' time?

Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1063 on: April 13, 2019, 02:33:42 PM »
There will be two sets of elections next month so I think it will be kicking off again quite soon.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

  • Baldness exposure gust
    • http://jackanderton.jamendo.net/
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1064 on: April 13, 2019, 02:59:04 PM »

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1065 on: April 14, 2019, 10:19:09 AM »
Been thinking a bit more about these crossparty talks. It seems to me that the worst outcome for Labour would be if the government acquiesced to all their demands. Since this then becomes something that they (i) can’t oppose and (ii) can subsequently be blamed for if/when it goes tits up.

But then suppose they get halfway, say a CU pledge but no Boris lock. Should they agree to that and then go back to the party with “this was the best we could do but since it’s still shit we’ll now vote against it”? Or would it be better to walk away with no agreement?

I guess this depends on what their endgame is. I presume their first choice remains a general election, particularly with polls starting to shift in their favour (those these remain unreliable and volatile). I’m not sure how you force one of those out of this process. Perhaps the plan is to force something that the DUP would be unhappy with...

...talking of which I hadn’t realised that a parliamentary session is the period between two queens speeches, and normally lasts a year. The last one was set up for two years to “get Brexit through” - ha! - and is about to come to an end. DUP are saying they won’t go in for C&S in a second session, though I’m sure May can find another magic money tree and bribe them off. But one possibility is that the QS is defeated, which presumably either has the same effect as - or will lead to - a confidence motion. The other thing of course is that May could put a Brexit plan in a QS - am I right in thinking is that if the QS is passed, that then eases the passage of legislation contained within it?

Mr_Simnock

  • BREXIT? what brexit
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1066 on: April 14, 2019, 11:54:27 AM »
Been thinking a bit more about these crossparty talks. It seems to me that the worst outcome for Labour would be if the government acquiesced to all their demands. Since this then becomes something that they (i) can’t oppose and (ii) can subsequently be blamed for if/when it goes tits up.

But then suppose they get halfway, say a CU pledge but no Boris lock. Should they agree to that and then go back to the party with “this was the best we could do but since it’s still shit we’ll now vote against it”? Or would it be better to walk away with no agreement?

I guess this depends on what their endgame is. I presume their first choice remains a general election, particularly with polls starting to shift in their favour (those these remain unreliable and volatile). I’m not sure how you force one of those out of this process. Perhaps the plan is to force something that the DUP would be unhappy with...

...talking of which I hadn’t realised that a parliamentary session is the period between two queens speeches, and normally lasts a year. The last one was set up for two years to “get Brexit through” - ha! - and is about to come to an end. DUP are saying they won’t go in for C&S in a second session, though I’m sure May can find another magic money tree and bribe them off. But one possibility is that the QS is defeated, which presumably either has the same effect as - or will lead to - a confidence motion. The other thing of course is that May could put a Brexit plan in a QS - am I right in thinking is that if the QS is passed, that then eases the passage of legislation contained within it?

If that happens then they will never get out of the endless fucking circle of voting any option down, someone somewhere is going to have to give up on a supposed 'red line'. Watching Marr this morning with some Tory nutter stating no way would they accept a second referendum at all filled me with dread of parliament arriving at October and still nothing agreed. The best Labour should hope for is a CU in the WA, I think that's the only option to have a cat in hells chance of passing.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

  • Baldness exposure gust
    • http://jackanderton.jamendo.net/
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1067 on: April 14, 2019, 01:33:09 PM »
Quote
filled me with dread of parliament arriving at October and still nothing agreed
.

Whatever happens that won't be Labour's fault.

Anyway, that brings back no deal so presumably you'd be happy?

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1068 on: April 14, 2019, 05:15:49 PM »
Been thinking a bit more about these crossparty talks. It seems to me that the worst outcome for Labour would be if the government acquiesced to all their demands. Since this then becomes something that they (i) can’t oppose and (ii) can subsequently be blamed for if/when it goes tits up.

But then suppose they get halfway, say a CU pledge but no Boris lock. Should they agree to that and then go back to the party with “this was the best we could do but since it’s still shit we’ll now vote against it”? Or would it be better to walk away with no agreement?

I guess this depends on what their endgame is. I presume their first choice remains a general election, particularly with polls starting to shift in their favour (those these remain unreliable and volatile). I’m not sure how you force one of those out of this process. Perhaps the plan is to force something that the DUP would be unhappy with...

...talking of which I hadn’t realised that a parliamentary session is the period between two queens speeches, and normally lasts a year. The last one was set up for two years to “get Brexit through” - ha! - and is about to come to an end. DUP are saying they won’t go in for C&S in a second session, though I’m sure May can find another magic money tree and bribe them off. But one possibility is that the QS is defeated, which presumably either has the same effect as - or will lead to - a confidence motion. The other thing of course is that May could put a Brexit plan in a QS - am I right in thinking is that if the QS is passed, that then eases the passage of legislation contained within it?

I think that whatever they agree with the government, the meaningful vote will still be amendable. So Labour will whip for amendments for a public vote *and* whip for the motion. That way, they've done everything they can to secure a people's vote—in fact, I think they're actually making it much more likely, since if the ERG think a soft as shit Brexit is going to pass they might actually decide they prefer to stay and try to veto corporation tax harmonisation and so on.

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1069 on: April 14, 2019, 05:36:48 PM »
Sounds plausible, though I wonder about the politics of saying "Hey, we got everything we wanted from the government, so we're going to put it to the people..."

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1070 on: April 14, 2019, 05:42:49 PM »
Sounds plausible, though I wonder about the politics of saying "Hey, we got everything we wanted from the government, so we're going to put it to the people..."

That's I think why they're going with this terminology of 'confirmatory vote'.

Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1071 on: April 14, 2019, 09:24:17 PM »
I've a horrible feeling if it goes to a public vote on the one side we're going to get the Remain/soft Brexit vote split by a bunch of smug, offputting politicians coming across as "this is the deal we've decided is best for you, now be good little children and tick the box," and on the other side a bunch of "No deal is better than this deal"-ers who don't give a shit about lying their arses off to get their way.

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1072 on: April 14, 2019, 09:28:31 PM »
I don't think 'no deal' is going on the ballot paper.

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1073 on: April 16, 2019, 02:05:34 PM »
Not Parliament as such (which is in recess) but the talks grind on.

Quote from: Oh, Jeremy Corbyn
The government doesn’t appear to be shifting the red lines because they’ve got a big pressure in the Tory party that actually wants to turn this country into a deregulated low-tax society which will do a deal with Trump. I don’t want to do that

I was worried that Corbyn was going to do a Nick Clegg on us when he went into these talks, but he seems to be avoiding this so far.

This is also quite interesting: How May miscalculated the Brexit numbers game

I don't know where the writer is getting his info from, but it tallies with my theory that May basically had the agreement with the EU more-or-less in place before making her various speeches. I presume the thinking was that if she were to stand on the steps of Downing Street / Lancaster House / Chequers / wherever and make a proclamation, her party would unite behind these as the negotiation goals... and she would then return victorious from Europe having got everything that she asked for. The Chequers resignations were clearly done with the knowledge of what the WA was going to look like.


greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: Brexit In Parliament Discussion Thread
« Reply #1074 on: April 17, 2019, 10:47:06 AM »
Guardian in two sensible articles on consecutive days shocker, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/17/why-labours-leader-has-to-perform-a-brexit-balancing-act

This one about the tension between the "honour the referendum result with a Labour-style Brexit" and "let's hold a second referendum in the hope that remain will win" positions. Being the Guardian, it is biased towards the latter being The One True Way. To be fair, I don't have a lot of enthusiasm for a Labour-style Brexit, but it beats a Tory-style Brexit hands down and they are right to prioritise stopping that from happening.