Brexit Thread Seven: More of this shit

[NoSleep]

Plenty more fish in the sea (provided nations respect agreed EU fishing quotas).

All best avoided as toxicity levels rise.

[biggytitbo]

Least surprising news ever https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48304867


Why anyone believes Labour are a brexit party I do not know, they are a remain party with a bit of brexit mood music to avoid losing leave votes. They are a brexit party in theory only, they are never going to vote for any form of brexit in reality, not even their own.

[Paul Calf]

Doesn't matter, does it? It's the will to build socialism into government that's far more important than Brexit, isn't it?

Brother Biggy?

[jobotic]

Vote fascist then.

[biggytitbo]

Doesn't matter, does it? It's the will to build socialism into government that's far more important than Brexit, isn't it?

Brother Biggy?

The Corbyn project has already being cowed by a neoliberal customs union, threats from company bosses, and the self same EU-loving political forces that seek to destroy it, as if they're going to get any of their radical policies through parliament, let alone their own party. I hope I'm wrong but it doesn't exactly bode well, Labour in a coalition with the Lib Dems or something, constantly rowing back on all of their proposals because of apocalyptic  (but entirely made up and self serving - see project fear) warnings of what they will do to the economy.

[Buelligan]

So you conclude the answer to those concerns is to support the fascist con artist Farage.  You are fooling precisely no one.

[Paul Calf]

The Corbyn project has already being cowed by a neoliberal customs union, threats from company bosses, and the self same EU-loving political forces that seek to destroy it, as if they're going to get any of their radical policies through parliament, let alone their own party. I hope I'm wrong but it doesn't exactly bode well, Labour in a coalition with the Lib Dems or something, constantly rowing back on all of their proposals because of apocalyptic  (but entirely made up and self serving - see project fear) warnings of what they will do to the economy.

Get some new copypasta. We're not going through this bullshit again.

[idunnosomename]

By Donkeys spreading the Brexit Party's message of hate and division for them



Is this really a good idea? Really?

[Howj Begg]

So now biggy's seen the light, I think we can try to ignore his painfully shit rhetoric and face a few facts uncovered by the data. I know we all don't like Peter Kellner, for good reason, but we should pay attention to some of the figures in this article. I know people here will have seen it but resisted posting it.  I post it here not as a recommendation on strategy, or as an endorsement of the headline or some of the judgements.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/16/labour-brexit-remain-voters-european-elections

A YouGov analysis of more than 25,000 voters suggests the following division of leave voters in the referendum, linked to the 2017 election result.

• Middle-class leave voters: Conservative 5.6 million; Labour 1.6 million.

• Working-class leave voters: Conservative 4.4 million; Labour 2.2 million. (A few of the remaining 3.6 million leave voters supported smaller parties; most did not vote in 2017.)

So the largest block of leave voters were middle-class Conservatives, followed by working-class Conservatives. Just one in eight leave voters was a working-class Labour supporter. To be sure, had even half of these 2.2 million voters backed remain, the result of the referendum would be different. But to suggest that the referendum's 17.4 million leave voters were dominated by working-class Labour supporters is simply wrong.

[Alberon]

A number 10 spokesman has said the Tory/Labour talks failed because Of issues related to Customs and a 2nd Referendum.

I do wonder if we're about to see Labour move fully behind a 2nd referendum now before the EU elections as that might attract back more Remainers than Leavers they'd lose.

[biggytitbo]

A number 10 spokesman has said the Tory/Labour talks failed because Of issues related to Customs and a 2nd Referendum.

So no deal is better than a bad deal after all it seems.

I do wonder if we're about to see Labour move fully behind a 2nd referendum now before the EU elections as that might attract back more Remainers than Leavers they'd lose.

Also funny how we've had 3 years of 'you don't know what you voted for' from people advocating a 2nd referendum that they haven't remotely thought through. Organising a 2nd referendum will almost be as difficult and fraught as negotiating a brexit deal itself, and is very likely not to solve anything anyway.

[Buelligan]

By Donkeys spreading the Brexit Party's message of hate and division for them



Is this really a good idea? Really?

I think so.  Otherwise people wouldn't need to excuse their voting intention by saying it's just a protest vote, would they.  Now they'll need to stand up and accept that they hate forrins, women, gays and anyone too poor to go to a private hospital.

[Paul Calf]

So no deal is better than a bad deal after all it seems.

Also funny how we've had 3 years of 'you don't know what you voted for' from people advocating a 2nd referendum that they haven't remotely thought through. Organising a 2nd referendum will almost be as difficult and fraught as negotiating a brexit deal itself, and is very likely not to solve anything anyway.

No, it won't. "Sorting out a Brexit deal" will take decades. Organising a referendum will take six months at the outside.

Do you ever think before you post?

[biggytitbo]

So now biggy's seen the light, I think we can try to ignore his painfully shit rhetoric and face a few facts uncovered by the data. I know we all don't like Peter Kellner, for good reason, but we should pay attention to some of the figures in this article. I know people here will have seen it but resisted posting it.  I post it here not as a recommendation on strategy, or as an endorsement of the headline or some of the judgements.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/16/labour-brexit-remain-voters-european-elections

National electoral politics is different from a poll about the EU elections - the problem for labour remains due to the skewed way the boundaries are set up to favour the tories, pretty much all the marginal seats they need to win to win a majority are heavily leave. We saw this same thing happen in 2015 where UKIP cost labour in several margin seats they might have otherwise won - the next election will be this x10.

[biggytitbo]

No, it won't. "Sorting out a Brexit deal" will take decades. Organising a referendum will take six months at the outside.

Do you ever think before you post?

"Sorting out a brexit deal" can't be done until we leave though. When we leave our new relationship with the EU is simply a matter of ongoing national politics like any other issue in the universe.

The question marks over a 2nd referendum meanwhile are endless. What will it be on? There is no concrete deal to have a referendum on until we leave the EU and negotiate one. How many options will there be and if it's more than 2 what will the voting method be used? What if the result is close again? What if the turnout is lower? What if it just turns into a massive row about the last 3 years? Why should anyone respect the result if the 1st wasn't respected?

[Howj Begg]

National electoral politics is different from a poll about the EU elections - the problem for labour remains due to the skewed way the boundaries are set up to favour the tories, pretty much all the marginal seats they need to win to win a majority are heavily leave. We saw this same thing happen in 2015 where UKIP cost labour in several margin seats they might have otherwise won - the next election will be this x10.

This is incorrect. Current polling for for Westminster voting intentions suggest that Labour would form a government with a majority anyway, so you seem to be (perhaps deliberately?) trying to conflate and confuse the EU voting intentions mentioned above with a National election. And the data suggests that they would potentially keep marginals in the North which are heavily loyal to labor, but have difficulty with marginals in the South that they could lose to the Lib Dems in a general election. I'm not sure if you're aware of this or if you're lying but that's the case.

Also interesting how you don't want to address the polling data of 25k people which suggest a very different picture of working class labour votes than you are constantly trying to project.

[biggytitbo]

This is incorrect. Current polling for for Westminster voting intentions suggest that Labour would form a government with a majority anyway, so you seem to be (perhaps deliberately?) trying to conflate and confuse the EU voting intentions mentioned above with a national election. And the data suggests that they would potentially keep marginals in the North which are heavily loyal to labor, but have difficulty with modules in the south that they could lose to the Lib Dems in a general election. I'm not sure if you're aware of this or if you're lying but that's the case.

Ive seen one poll where the projection had labour with a tiny majority. Every other one leaves them the biggest party but no majority thus requiring a coalition with the SNP or Lib Dems. That remains by far the most likely scenario unless the next tory leader happens to be even worse than May.

[Paul Calf]

Also interesting how you don't want to address the polling data of 25k people which suggest a very different picture of working class labour votes than you are constantly trying to Project.

Despotism, totalitarianism, fascism - it always pretends to be the friend of the working classes against the elites. There's nothing new going on here, just new people being taken in by it.

How anyone who has the political far right led by Farage, the right of the Tory Party and the BBC on their side can call themselves anti-establishment at this point is baffling. Perhaps it's deliberate dishonesty, perhaps it's just ignorance. But we are now discovering the answer to the questions "How could anyone support the Nazis? What happened? What would you have done?"

[Howj Begg]

Ive seen one poll where the projection had labour with a tiny majority. Every other one leaves them the biggest party but no majority thus requiring a coalition with the SNP or Lib Dems. That remains by far the most likely scenario unless the next tory leader happens to be even worse than May.

Sure, it's touch and go re a Labour majority. But there's no question whatsoever now that all the evidence is showing Labour will do significantly worse with a more Leave position than even with a qualified Remain position. The Brexit Party are hoovering up Tory and UKIP voters primarily, and the Lib Dems and Greens are taking the crucial votes that Labour would need. There is not a significant voting bloc which Labour can take from Leave, in the current party situation. Strategically, to win a GE, Labour need to emphasise Remain or at the very least come out against the WA.

[Howj Begg]

Despotism, totalitarianism, fascism - it always pretends to be the friend of the working classes against the elites. There's nothing new going on here, just new people being taken in by it.

How anyone who has the political far right led by Farage, the right of the Tory Party and the BBC on their side can call themselves anti-establishment at this point is baffling. Perhaps it's deliberate dishonesty, perhaps it's just ignorance. But we are now discovering the answer to the questions "How could anyone support the Nazis? What happened? What would you have done?"

Yes. When you've got fascist charlatans like Farage around who are willing to exploit people's fears and deliberately lead them down the garden path, it's very clear how the far right can profit. It's tempting to blame voters, and on election night believe me I will, but soberly now I can see how being lied to in such a consistent, dramatic, and charismatic way can mislead people.

Having said that, it's now clear that The Brexit Part's voter base are quite simply former Conservative voters + UKIP voters + a few wild cards. We know the racist voting bloc in the electorate is of this size at least, as shown by the referendum. These people will always be with us and Labour can win without them.

[Paul Calf]

I think they've known it for longer than we have, but realise how impolitic it'd be to say it in public.

[BlodwynPig]

I think so.  Otherwise people wouldn't need to excuse their voting intention by saying it's just a protest vote, would they.  Now they'll need to stand up and accept that they hate forrins, women, gays and anyone too poor to go to a private hospital.

In extrapolation, sadly

[idunnosomename]

I think so.  Otherwise people wouldn't need to excuse their voting intention by saying it's just a protest vote, would they.  Now they'll need to stand up and accept that they hate forrins, women, gays and anyone too poor to go to a private hospital.

I think there's probably too much optimism that there's not lots of little old ladies in Christchurch who don't like poofters

[Blue Jam]

Good ol' Cassetteboy:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1129045200129671168

[Paul Calf]

I think so.  Otherwise people wouldn't need to excuse their voting intention by saying it's just a protest vote, would they.  Now they'll need to stand up and accept that they hate forrins, women, gays and anyone too poor to go to a private hospital.

Or they might decide to react to this characterisation of them as arseholes by doubling down and becoming bigger arseholes.

When right-wingers say "You just don't get it," what they mean is that you have underestimated the capacity of people to justify their selfishness with ostentatious declarations of overt, venal greed. If you challenge them on this, you're proving that you're not 'one of them' and don't understand, and you're angry so they must be doing something right.

Brexit is being driven by vanity, ignorance, illogic and incompetence. It will not be halted with rationality. It will not be stopped by truth.

[biggytitbo]

Sure, it's touch and go re a Labour majority. But there's no question whatsoever now that all the evidence is showing Labour will do significantly worse with a more Leave position than even with a qualified Remain position.

In polls or the EU elections, not a general election.

[Howj Begg]

In polls or the EU elections, not a general election.

wrong.

[Howj Begg]

By Donkeys spreading the Brexit Party's message of hate and division for them



Is this really a good idea? Really?

Welp

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1129357301175988225

[biggytitbo]

Having said that, it's now clear that The Brexit Part's voter base are quite simply former Conservative voters + UKIP voters + a few wild cards. We know the racist voting bloc in the electorate is of this size at least, as shown by the referendum. These people will always be with us and Labour can win without them.

Not with that attitude, that attitude is a blueprint for losing as we've seen time and time again.

Some people are literally incapable of learning aren't they?

Also that poll you quoted yourself as 1.2m labour voters moving to the brexit party. That's enough to lose a general election in itself.

[Howj Begg]

Not with that attitude, that attitude is a blueprint for losing as we've seen time and time again.

Some people are literally incapable of learning aren't they?

Very true, Farage voter.

Also that poll you quoted yourself as 1.2m labour voters moving to the brexit party. That's enough to lose a general election in itself.

That's an EU Referendum poll, as you yourself just said, but we're now talking about a GE, as you yourself just brought up. Why are you conflating the two alternately as it suits you, and why do you think we don't notice?

In a GE Labour is mainly at risk of losing Southern marginals to resurgent Lib Dem or Green candidates, not Tories. In the North it is not at risk of losing to Tories, and any Brexit Party candidates do not have a chance of winning. I know you know this. I think you know we know you know this. Stop pretending. It's lame.