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March 29, 2024, 02:10:40 AM

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Brexit Thread Seven: More of this shit

Started by Mister Six, April 05, 2019, 04:29:39 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

NoSleep

Quote from: Dr Rock on September 14, 2019, 04:29:28 PM
But polls show Remain has been ahead of Leave by an average of 8% for over a year. Those are a national opinion polls, I don't know how it would affect different constituencies, the ones where it was a narrow win for Brexit would possibly not go the same way today, or whenever the next GE is.

The remainers are probably concentrated in some constituencies, whilst leavers are majorities by a narrow margin in many others.

jamiefairlie

We want a progressive, anti-Brexit  alliance.....except for viewers in Scotland who have their own programmes...

"NEW: Scottish Tory sources have said informal talks are 'ongoing' with the Lib Dems about ensuring the SNP do not have a 'clean sweep' of Westminster seats at the next election — understand similar discussions happened at Holyrood in 2016"

Dr Rock


Johnny Yesno


Quote from: Dr Rock on September 14, 2019, 04:29:28 PM
But polls show Remain has been ahead of Leave by an average of 8% for over a year. Those are a national opinion polls, I don't know how it would affect different constituencies, the ones where it was a narrow win for Brexit would possibly not go the same way today, or whenever the next GE is.

It's hard to get accurate data on referendum results by constituency, because the vote wasn't broken up like that.  But this guy has crunched the data, and produced a spreadsheet with some good estimates.

Poking at that data briefly (covering 632 constituencies out of 650; Northern Ireland isn't included):

403 constituencies voted >50% Leave.
289 constituencies voted >55% Leave.
161 constituencies voted >60% Leave.
71 constituencies voted >65% Leave.
21 constituencies voted >70% Leave.

Taking Northern Ireland out of the equation (because we know nothing about it from that data, but also because Sinn Fein don't take their seats), there are 229 Remain constituencies.  There are 114 which voted between 50% and 55% Leave, which are the possible marginals whose result may have changed.  To hit 326 seats, 85% of those marginal seats would have to swing to Remain.  And then vote Lib Dem or one of the others they're apparently prepared to form an alliance with.

If the Lib Dems are going to base their entire political strategy on that, they're more stupid than Cameron was for calling it in the first place.

Johnny Yesno

I've managed to answer one of my own questions:

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/insights/who-stood-in-the-general-election-2017/

QuoteWho stood in the General Election 2017?

QuoteThe Conservative Party fielded 638 candidates, the highest number of any party this election (although nine fewer than in 2015). Conservative candidates stood for all of Great Britain's 632 constituencies except Buckingham, where the current Speaker is standing for re-election as an independent unopposed by the three main parties. In Northern Ireland the Conservative Party fielded candidates in seven out of 18 constituencies.

QuoteThe Liberal Democrats fielded 629 candidates in Great Britain only, two fewer than in 2015. The Green Party put forward 467 candidates across the UK, 106 fewer than in 2015.

So I guess that means that the Lib Dems aren't too small a party to form a government by themselves, unlike the Greens. Actually, maybe the Greens theoretically could too. I dunno.

Dr Rock


Lordofthefiles


Johnny Yesno

#2978
Quote from: Dr Rock on September 14, 2019, 06:11:36 PM
Dunno why it's locked. Did I do a bad thing?

Boring thread title, probably. It didn't even have mate in it.

Cloud

Not keen on Tim Martin's Brexiteering, but not angry enough to avoid 'spoons when I'm near one.  Good cheap curry and ale on a Thursday, order on app so no need to participate in a bar scrum, or 50p CAMRA vouchers if the bar is quiet.  Fab.  Not there often anyway, usually at the local boozer.