Poll

Who will you vote for in the Euro elections

Tories
Labour
Change UK
Green
SNP
Plaid Cymru
Lib Dems
UKIP
Fascist Party
Other party (UK)
Other party (Other EU country)
I can't vote
DUP
SF
SDLP
UUP
I won't vote
That bloke who pulls himself off next to the Aldi on Smithdown Road

Author Topic: Euro Election 2019  (Read 18810 times)

NoSleep

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Euro Election 2019
« on: April 18, 2019, 08:46:36 AM »
What is the voting system in place for European elections in the UK? I know it has to be some form of PR but does it allow you to select more than one candidate?

Single vote d’hondt System I think. You vote for a list (ie a party) and then the top n candidates on each list get elected. There’s a nice explanation of how n is worked out on Wikipedia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%27Hondt_method - I’d only seen it described as an iterative process before, which is much harder than the table version presented there. The basic idea of the method is that it tries to figure out how many votes are needed to win each seat, and then divide the number of votes per party by that figure and do some rounding to get n. Apparently there is a slight bias towards larger parties in the rounding.

Anyway there’s a number of threads now discussion the euros - shall we unify them into a single thread?

Done

Captain Z

  • Oh yeah my cholesterol's going down
Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2019, 08:53:26 AM »
I don't remember voting to have elections forced on us. Typical of the unelected EU dictatorship.

Mobius

  • he who hingeth aboot getteth hee haw
Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2019, 09:14:29 AM »
Adam Boulton just said the N word whilst interviewing Gerard Batten on Sky News

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2019, 09:20:47 AM »
Should we have a poll about who we plan to vote for, or is it a bit pointless given that most of us will be voting Labour or Green?

Buelligan

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2019, 09:24:12 AM »
I don't get a vote, which is nice.

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2019, 09:34:34 AM »
...and in the other thread it's been noted that YouGov done a poll:

Quote
European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 23% (-4)
LAB: 22% (-)
CON: 17% (+2)
GRN: 10% (-)
LDEM: 9% (-)
CHUK: 8% (+2)
UKIP: 6% (-1)

via @YouGov, 16 - 17 Apr
Chgs. w/ 16 Apr

Usual caveats apply.

These elections are unusual in a couple of regards. First there is a possibility (albeit remote) that they won't happen. Second, they have been touted as an informal second referendum. The question is how to assign a stance to the parties. I'd suggest

BREX and UKIP = No deal exit (29%)
GRN, LDEM, CHUK = Remain (27%)
LAB = Leave with a deal (22%)
CON = Leave with a deal if we can, but no deal if we can't (17%)

Presumably the missing 5% are SNP, Plaid etc (don't knows are usually factored out of polls). This illustrates right away the difficulty in assigning any kind of referendum-like interpretation of these results, as you can cook up pretty much any result you like from them.

For example... even if we add the missing 5% to the Remain camp, one can say 68% favour some form of Leave. But then if you consider three discrete alternatives (Remain / Deal / No deal), then the single most popular option is leaving with some sort of deal.

But that's too naive a reading, as there's a fair fraction of CON who actively want No deal (let's say 1/3) and a fair fraction of LAB who actively want to Remain (let's say 2/3). Then you end up with 46% Remain, 34% No deal, 20% Deal, none of which command a majority, but still with a marginal majority for some sort of Leave (and given the uncertainties on these things, consistent with the first referendum result).

Then, given that the Remain vote is split amongst a lot of small parties, and that d'Hondt favours the bigger ones, the elected MEPs will be predominantly hard Leave. The small parties have already decided that they can't work together / form an alliance.

But still, there's a campaign to run, and maybe more attention will be paid to it than in a usual Euro election, given the unusual circumstances. Have the Tories bottomed out, or will we see a 2017 GE effect where each TV appearance knocks a couple of percent off the polls? Will Labour Remainers put ideological purity above pragmatism and spaff their votes up the wall on TINGE and friends, thereby boosting the Hard Leavers?

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2019, 09:36:01 AM »
The other question is how hard LAB and CON intend to fight. Election campaigns are expensive, and there might be more important ones coming up. As I've said before, though, LAB will want to stop TINGE from gaining any momentum, so I guess they're going to have to bite the bullet and go in hard.

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2019, 12:53:50 PM »
Lots of people calling for the Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK to combine for the EU elections . Which ignores how different the Greens are from the other two parties (and how the Lib Dems actually used to stand for something). Also, less choice on who to vote for isn't good.

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2019, 06:52:37 PM »
Yes, and no on the choice thing. Yes it's nice to have choice. No, it's not so good if it ends up splitting the vote. This is where an STV system would be better: those for whom an overtly Remain stance is paramount could then vote TINGE/LD/GRN in their preferred order with the knowledge that their vote would eventually land on the one with the most support.

D'Hondt requires you to vote more tactically if you want your vote to convert to a seat.

ETA: The above assumes an English region. Voters in Wales and Scotland have serious pro-European parties in the form of the SNP and Plaid to vote for. However, not all pro-Europeans think the SNP are the bees' knees...

NoSleep

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2019, 06:55:17 PM »
If you're pro-remain you need to vote for who you think will best represent you if we remain. I don't think you can sift through the possible parties as representing different Brexit stances. Hopefully Labour do well whilst Brexit/UKIP/Tinge (all standing on "anti/negative" platforms against one thing or another) pound the Tories to a poor 2nd (or 3rd). I think the important thing is to actually vote and show that we care about staying in Europe. If enough people take this seriously it will seriously diminish the anti-Europe parties' fortunes.

Howj Begg

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2019, 07:02:51 PM »
Com Res poll with different results. I don't know what demographics they sampled, though.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163

Quote
European Parliament voting intention:

LAB: 33% (+8)
CON: 18% (-6)
BREX: 17% (+17)
CHUK: 9% (+9)
LDEM: 9% (+2)
UKIP: 5% (-22)
GRN: 5% (-2)

Shoulders?-Stomach!

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2019, 07:38:30 PM »
I prefer that one, more of that one please

Zetetic

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2019, 07:56:42 PM »
Should we have a poll about who we plan to vote for, or is it a bit pointless given that most of us will be voting Labour or Green?
Plaid.

Labour MEPs have been terrible on the recent copyright issues, and my own MEPs have been utterly unresponsive on the same.

biggytitbo

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2019, 08:13:11 PM »
Wouldn't it make sense for the tories not to take part so as to avoid a massive defeat and also delegitimize the results?

mothman

  • I don't know why
Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2019, 10:33:38 PM »
But that’s effectively encouraging their own voters to vote instead for UKIP or the Brexit party, and that scares them more.

Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2019, 11:13:36 PM »
Been enjoying the slow motion car crash that is 'Sargon of Akkad' running as MEP for UKIP

imitationleather

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2019, 11:23:49 PM »
Been enjoying the slow motion car crash that is 'Sargon of Akkad' running as MEP for UKIP

I just read that Nazi Salute Dog Guy is standing. Hilarity is sure to ensue!

FerriswheelBueller

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #17 on: April 19, 2019, 12:25:48 AM »
I don't get a vote, which is nice.

Or me. You are eligible to vote in France I think? Don’t let them disenfranchise you!

Edit: yes you can - never fear, fellow Bueller https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/elections-abroad/european-elections/france/index_en.htm

I’m only following these results to laugh at ChUK’s results, and see how their candidates defend standing as a candidate for a political party with 0 manifesto (and whether any have the temerity to do so with a straight face). If any of their MPs had any sense they’d stand down and stand as MEPs before they are deselected and roundly trounced at the next GE (which may be very soon...)

buttgammon

  • You can't trust a man what's made of gas
Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2019, 12:43:28 PM »
Here's a question: I'm registered to vote at my old address in Wales but I'm also registered to vote in Ireland. Am I actually allowed to vote in both countries? I really hope so, because I'm weirdly looking forward to these elections in both countries. In Britain because I never thought I'd get the chance to vote in a European election there again, and in Ireland because my constituency has an enormous list of candidates (over 20 I think), which is packed full of crazies and thus gives me the passive-aggressive pleasure of giving my bottom preference vote to anti-vaxxer, conspiracy idiot, racist and general arsehole Gemma O'Doherty.

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2019, 02:13:13 PM »
This article https://www.politico.eu/article/n-eu-dual-voting-cktv/ suggests that you are allowed only to vote in one country.

However, according to this article, unless you do something silly, like announce that you've done this on TV or a widely-read UK-based comedy forum it's unlikely that anyone would be able to tell.


buttgammon

  • You can't trust a man what's made of gas
Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #20 on: April 19, 2019, 03:16:42 PM »
This article https://www.politico.eu/article/n-eu-dual-voting-cktv/ suggests that you are allowed only to vote in one country.

However, according to this article, unless you do something silly, like announce that you've done this on TV or a widely-read UK-based comedy forum it's unlikely that anyone would be able to tell.



Super! Of course, I would never break the law in this way and will definitely only vote in one of these countries.

Buelligan

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #21 on: April 19, 2019, 03:40:00 PM »
Or me. You are eligible to vote in France I think? Don’t let them disenfranchise you!

Edit: yes you can - never fear, fellow Bueller https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/elections-abroad/european-elections/france/index_en.htm

Yeah... I applied for a vote.  Card came back, didn't read the small print until after the closing date for applications, they only went and issued me a card that only entitles me to vote for the village mayor and nothing else.  I'm going to complain, I suppose, but frankly I'm fucked off and I don't want to be pushed into a situation where I lose my temper. 

I know it sounds like whingeing, I am whingeing but I pay fucking tax, all I want is to be able to have a tiny say about what happens with it.

FerriswheelBueller

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #22 on: April 19, 2019, 04:14:07 PM »
Yeah... I applied for a vote.  Card came back, didn't read the small print until after the closing date for applications, they only went and issued me a card that only entitles me to vote for the village mayor and nothing else.  I'm going to complain, I suppose, but frankly I'm fucked off and I don't want to be pushed into a situation where I lose my temper. 

I know it sounds like whingeing, I am whingeing but I pay fucking tax, all I want is to be able to have a tiny say about what happens with it.

That’s so stupid. Even “applying to vote” seems bonkers to me (though I have to do it every year as well). Hope you get it sorted in time

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #23 on: April 19, 2019, 04:20:28 PM »
Plaid.

Labour MEPs have been terrible on the recent copyright issues, and my own MEPs have been utterly unresponsive on the same.

Sorry, that was very Englandcentric of me. I imagine there will be a few SNP voters on here as well.

Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #24 on: April 19, 2019, 04:29:39 PM »
The high numbers in that poll for Labour confuse me. Why would anyone vote for them in these elections?

Remainers won't. Leavers won't. Even Lexit types won't. In the context of Europe there's literally no compelling reason to vote Labour.

I might revise this once I've seen their campaign messaging, but my gut feeling is they will get completely fucked.

Is anyone here planning to vote for them? Why?

Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #25 on: April 19, 2019, 04:31:00 PM »
Yes

Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #26 on: April 19, 2019, 04:32:29 PM »
Is anyone here planning to vote for them? Why?

Magic Granpa will make everything alright.

FerriswheelBueller

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #27 on: April 19, 2019, 04:34:33 PM »
Can’t vote (non-resident citizen) but would probably vote labour.

NoSleep

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #28 on: April 19, 2019, 04:38:09 PM »
Magic Granpa will make everything alright.

Except he isn't the one peddling magic; that would be CHUK the no-manifesto party.

So who would you vote for?

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: Euro Election 2019
« Reply #29 on: April 19, 2019, 04:38:40 PM »
The high numbers in that poll for Labour confuse me. Why would anyone vote for them in these elections?

Remainers won't. Leavers won't. Even Lexit types won't. In the context of Europe there's literally no compelling reason to vote Labour.

I might revise this once I've seen their campaign messaging, but my gut feeling is they will get completely fucked.

Is anyone here planning to vote for them? Why?

I trust Labour under Corbyn to deliver the least worst form of Brexit. As many Labour MEPs  as possible will help with this, and will mean fewer embrassing Tory, UKIP and Brexit Party MEPs making us look like dicks. Change UK also would be a joke as MEPs - a party with only one policy getting seats would be almost dystopian.