...and in the other thread it's been noted that YouGov done a poll:
European Parliament voting intention:
BREX: 23% (-4)
LAB: 22% (-)
CON: 17% (+2)
GRN: 10% (-)
LDEM: 9% (-)
CHUK: 8% (+2)
UKIP: 6% (-1)
via @YouGov, 16 - 17 Apr
Chgs. w/ 16 Apr
Usual caveats apply.
These elections are unusual in a couple of regards. First there is a possibility (albeit remote) that they won't happen. Second, they have been touted as an informal second referendum. The question is how to assign a stance to the parties. I'd suggest
BREX and UKIP = No deal exit (29%)
GRN, LDEM, CHUK = Remain (27%)
LAB = Leave with a deal (22%)
CON = Leave with a deal if we can, but no deal if we can't (17%)
Presumably the missing 5% are SNP, Plaid etc (don't knows are usually factored out of polls). This illustrates right away the difficulty in assigning any kind of referendum-like interpretation of these results, as you can cook up pretty much any result you like from them.
For example... even if we add the missing 5% to the Remain camp, one can say 68% favour some form of Leave. But then if you consider three discrete alternatives (Remain / Deal / No deal), then the single most popular option is leaving with some sort of deal.
But that's too naive a reading, as there's a fair fraction of CON who actively want No deal (let's say 1/3) and a fair fraction of LAB who actively want to Remain (let's say 2/3). Then you end up with 46% Remain, 34% No deal, 20% Deal, none of which command a majority, but still with a marginal majority for some sort of Leave (and given the uncertainties on these things, consistent with the first referendum result).
Then, given that the Remain vote is split amongst a lot of small parties, and that d'Hondt favours the bigger ones, the elected MEPs will be predominantly hard Leave. The small parties have already decided that they can't work together / form an alliance.
But still, there's a campaign to run, and maybe more attention will be paid to it than in a usual Euro election, given the unusual circumstances. Have the Tories bottomed out, or will we see a 2017 GE effect where each TV appearance knocks a couple of percent off the polls? Will Labour Remainers put ideological purity above pragmatism and spaff their votes up the wall on TINGE and friends, thereby boosting the Hard Leavers?