Euro Election 2019

[Paul Calf]

You may also wish to consider the actual voting records of Green and Labour MEPs.

Labour MEPs voted in favour of some of the worse parts of the copyright directive (and it's worth noting that not all of the S&D bloc did this) recently - and I've not see any excuse for this. That's a major reason why I would prefer Plaid MEP to represent me than a Labour one.
Noting that, practically, the question in my constituency is whether the 4th seat goes to the LIb Dems or Plaid.

(Which the Lib Dems have been lying about - presenting them as a plausible option to avoid the Brexit party ending up with two seats. I believe they've been doing similar elsewhere.)

Labour MPs voted in favour of the 'snooper's charter'. There's a powerfully authoritarian streak in Labour, running right back to Blair, that doesn't seem to be going away and it does worry me.

[greencalx]

I have also been wary of Labour's tendency towards authoritarian positions, both in its left-wing and centrist incarnations.

But at the same time, I think that allowing a single issue (be that tuition fee betrayal, Brexit fence-sitting, position on Scottish independence or anything else) to entirely determine a voting decision is a bit short-sighted and one does need to consider the bigger picture (and who might reasonably get a seat).

[Zetetic]

It's a bugger that so many of the UK's voting systems force us deeper in tactical considerations.

What's the likely contention in Scotland? I'm guessing it's SNP vs. Labour.

[bomb_dog]

Not sure if this means much, but there was a Brexit party stand at Gloucester car boot this morning. Given the multicultural mix of people there I don't know if they had much conversation. I should have asked them what they stood for, given the manifesto won't be published until after the vote.
'Not that', is not really a very constructive argument, but it still seems to be working.

[canadagoose]

It's a bugger that so many of the UK's voting systems force us deeper in tactical considerations.

What's the likely contention in Scotland? I'm guessing it's SNP vs. Labour.

Surprisingly, the Greens came out in 3rd place in Scotland in a recent poll, with Labour and the Tories in joint 4th.

Edit: https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/1130030971162701824?s=19
I almost got it right - Labour in 4th, Tories in 5th.

Double edit: can't remember if I said so on here, but I'm voting Green.

[Zetetic]

Ah, so that would suggest:

SNP 38%
Brexit 20%
SNP 19%

And then quite close between Greens, Labour, Tory and Brexit for one of the last three seats, all at about 10%. (Maybe SNP in there as well.)

Is that right?

[bgmnts]

I'm voting Plaid.

[TrenterPercenter]

Let me choose my words carefully.  Due to the nature, process and context of the EU elections it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to vote for a remain party, with one caveat, you vote for Labour in any GE.

This election is a proxy referendum, it does not equate to voting intentions for government in the UK.

[holyzombiejesus]

The count for this is going to last 11 hours! That's really taking the piss. Usually, they take place from 10pm til finish (usually 3 or 4am) but for this, because the declaration is on Sunday night, we have to start at 1pm on a Sunday afternoon and will be there until the declaration. We get paid £200 gross, but I think I'm going to sack it off. Sometimes they let us out early but I can't rely on that as my last train home is at 22:30 so would need to book a hotel anyway. Whinge over.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Voting Labour. I support Corbyn's line on Brexit and even if I didn't I know the media will use a bad result for Labour in the European elections to criticise Corbyn, even though as TrenterPercenter says it does not equate to voting intentions at a general election.

[jobotic]

Let me choose my words carefully.  Due to the nature, process and context of the EU elections it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to vote for a remain party, with one caveat, you vote for Labour in any GE.

This election is a proxy referendum, it does not equate to voting intentions for government in the UK.

Absolutely. No question of me not voting Labour in a GE.

I also share Fambo's fears about a bad Labour result. But then the nonsensical conclusions that came from the local elections make me think whatever happens it'll be seen as hard Brexit now disaster for Labour.

[canadagoose]

Ah, so that would suggest:

SNP 38%
Brexit 20%
SNP 19%

And then quite close between Greens, Labour, Tory and Brexit for one of the last three seats, all at about 10%. (Maybe SNP in there as well.)

Is that right?

Yes, that sounds about right. God forbid the bloody Brexit party got 2 seats. I'd be affronted.

[NoSleep]

Let me choose my words carefully.  Due to the nature, process and context of the EU elections it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to vote for a remain party, with one caveat, you vote for Labour in any GE.

This election is a proxy referendum, it does not equate to voting intentions for government in the UK.

The only problem I see with that is if we find ourselves remaining. All those Brexit MEPs (who will ally with other anti-Europe far-right MEPs across Europe) will then need to be opposed and Labour are best placed to do that within a social democratic alliance. Forget about it being a referendum; let the Brexiteers use it as a toys-out-the-pram troll-vote; vote seriously for who you think will best represent you in Europe.

[machotrouts]

Surprisingly, the Greens came out in 3rd place in Scotland in a recent poll, with Labour and the Tories in joint 4th.

Edit: https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/1130030971162701824?s=19
I almost got it right - Labour in 4th, Tories in 5th.

[just learned what the D'Hondt system was half an hour ago voice] Let me D'Hondt the fuck out of this

38: SNP
19.8: Brexit
11: Green
10.2: Labour
10: Tory
7: Lib Dem
2: UKIP
2: CHUKTIG

19 (38/2): SNP
19.8: Brexit
11: Green
10.2: Labour
10: Tory
7: Lib Dem
2: UKIP
2: CHUKTIG

19 (38/2): SNP
9.9 (19.8/2): Brexit
11: Green
10.2: Labour
10: Tory
7: Lib Dem
2: UKIP
2: CHUKTIG

12.7 (38/3): SNP
9.9 (19.8/2): Brexit
11: Green
10.2: Labour
10: Tory
7: Lib Dem
2: UKIP
2: CHUKTIG

9.5 (38/4): SNP
9.9 (19.8/2): Brexit
11: Green
10.2: Labour
10: Tory
7: Lib Dem
2: UKIP
2: CHUKTIG

9.5 (38/4): SNP
9.9 (19.8/2): Brexit
5.5 (11/2): Green
10.2: Labour
10: Tory
7: Lib Dem
2: UKIP
2: CHUKTIG

Is that right?

So...
1: SNP's 1st MEP
> 18.2% >
2: Brexit's 1st MEP
> 0.8% >
3: SNP's 2nd MEP
> 8% >
4: SNP's 3rd MEP
> 1.7% >
5: Greens' 1st MEP
> 0.8% >
6: Labour's 1st MEP
> 0.2% >
7: Tories' 1st MEP
> 0.1% >
8: Brexit's 2nd MEP
> 0.4% >
9: SNP's 4th MEP
> 1.9% >
10: SNP's 5th MEP
> 0.6% >
11: Lib Dems' 1st MEP
etc.

Green 1 and Labour 1 very narrowly keeping Tory 1 and Brexit 2 at bay there. SNP could plausibly get anywhere from 2 to 4 MEPs. By "anywhere from 2 to 4" I do just mean 2, 3, or 4.

[Paul Calf]

Deputy Edit Glitch Removal Officer reporting in.

[bgmnts]

Are the bookies on this? If so, just check the bookies.

[greencalx]

The anti-Labour campaign in Scotland has been so successful I think there's a good chance that the Tories will get that 6th seat.

[Buelligan]

The only problem I see with that is if we find ourselves remaining. All those Brexit MEPs (who will ally with other anti-Europe far-right MEPs across Europe) will then need to be opposed and Labour are best placed to do that within a social democratic alliance. Forget about it being a referendum; let the Brexiteers use it as a toys-out-the-pram troll-vote; vote seriously for who you think will best represent you in Europe.

I absolutely agree with this and urge everyone to think most seriously about it.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Another reason not to vote Lib Dem on the 23rd: https://twitter.com/chunkymark/status/1130150019552698370

[StewartLeehaslethimselfgo]

Not sure if this means much, but there was a Brexit party stand at Gloucester car boot this morning. Given the multicultural mix of people there I don't know if they had much conversation. I should have asked them what they stood for, given the manifesto won't be published until after the vote.
'Not that', is not really a very constructive argument, but it still seems to be working.

They were out in ellesmere port today too, big stand and about 20 old'uns handing out flyers

[Edmonds]

within a social democratic alliance.

This "social democratic alliance" you're alluding to has been on the table since the referendum. It will require Labour to embrace it.

[chveik]

The only problem I see with that is if we find ourselves remaining. All those Brexit MEPs (who will ally with other anti-Europe far-right MEPs across Europe) will then need to be opposed and Labour are best placed to do that within a social democratic alliance. Forget about it being a referendum; let the Brexiteers use it as a toys-out-the-pram troll-vote; vote seriously for who you think will best represent you in Europe.

the proper socialist alliance in the European Parliament is the Party of the European Left. Labour are in the Party of European Socialists, which mostly consists of social democrats (ie they don't really represent the interests of leftists).

[NoSleep]

The last election wasn't under Corbyn. I don't know whether that means there could be a change of allegiance or not. I'm sure necessity will require Labour to make sure the Brexit party does the least damage possible in the EP.

[Cuellar]

I'm voting Breexit party to send a message to London

I was in Cirencester yesterday and saw loads of graffiti saying 'Vote UKIP to secede from Westminster' hahahaha fucking stupid hick Cirencestrians fucking idiots

[Buelligan]

The last election wasn't under Corbyn. I don't know whether that means there could be a change of allegiance or not. I'm sure necessity will require Labour to make sure the Brexit party does the least damage possible in the EP.

Yes, I'm sure Corbyn would deem it important to ensure that Labour MEPs serve Britain in the most useful possible alliances.

I think most would acknowledge that in the Labour Party, in general, there's a long tail, rather like a goldfish poo but longer and more shitty, that emanates from the now dead Blairosphere and consists of horrible placeholder cunts like Margaret Hodge, Margaret Prosser and Siobhain and Margaret McDonagh, eventually even these will all drop off and get put through the filter.

Goodbye, sweet Chu..... 

*PIM*

Gone.

[pancreas]

This "social democratic alliance" you're alluding to has been on the table since the referendum. It will require Labour to embrace it.

Sorry, is this an alliance with the sort of social democratic force like the Lib Dems who have helped to visit vast misery on its citizens?

[thecuriousorange]

Every vote seems like a protest vote in this.

[biggytitbo]

Looking good in Wales https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-05-20/poll-puts-brexit-party-on-course-for-european-election-triumph-in-wales/

Brexit Party: 36% (+26)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+4)
Labour: 15% (-15)
Liberal Democrats: 10% (+4)
Greens: 8% (+5)
Conservative: 7% (-9)
UKIP: 2% (-9)
Change UK: 2% (-6)

If its anything like that, it would be the worse result for Labour in Wales ever, and probably the cons too - only on 22% between them.

[Replies From View]

Shush racist,

All this because you hate yourself for voting for Nigel Farage?  You do know the simple solution is not to vote for Nigel Farage, right?

I know it means admitting that your contribution of 9 billion pointless Brexit-related posts on CaB have been founded on desperate lies and jaw-dropping stupidity, but you are in danger of actually exploding.

[Replies From View]

If you don't get it yet let me spell it out - if we don't leave the EU, THIS IS NEVER GOING TO END.

Give the likes of Farage what they're after - that'll end it though!  He'll just walk away and none of his racist dipshit ^_titbo cunt supporters will feel at all emboldened by the result!

You really are such a dunce, biggy.