Author Topic: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling  (Read 1807 times)

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #30 on: July 06, 2019, 11:27:39 PM »
Quickest way to have £1,000? Start with £2,000.

Maurice Yeatman

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Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #31 on: July 07, 2019, 12:08:43 AM »
Angus Loughran (aka Statto) was the Telegraph's punting expert for a while, but was declared bankrupt. (Might be more to this story but let's keep it simple.)

I used to have an online Paddy Power account and titted around with some modest bets for a few months before I decided to close it when I was £4 up. That showed them.

That said, every now and then I get the urge to go all in with online poker. Victoria Coren has made millions of dollars playing poker and says "genuinely" all the time in an irritating voice with far less self-awareness than I would have, so I reckon I would be a much better player than her.

My point couldn't be clearer. Good post.

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #32 on: July 07, 2019, 01:41:52 AM »
Don't do this, but do do matched betting. You can rack up a couple of thousand easily before bookies start to exclude you from offers. Just lose too many accounts before Cheltenham festival as that's particularly profitable.

But don't actually gamble with the aim of making money because that's fucking stupid.

The maths part of my brain has rotted as a result of neglect, but isn't punting the freebie a higher EV bet? On account of not needing to account for commission at the exchange? I appreciate that there are times when laying off the freebie is worthwhile (like if you're trying to lose at the bookies), and this is getting into the realms of actually understanding the maths and t&cs rather than following a system.

Is profitable though. I've certainly turned over a few grand doing it pretty casually - just the mainstream British books.

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Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #33 on: July 07, 2019, 10:09:25 AM »
Angus Loughran (aka Statto) was the Telegraph's punting expert for a while, but was declared bankrupt. (Might be more to this story but let's keep it simple.)

I used to have an online Paddy Power account and titted around with some modest bets for a few months before I decided to close it when I was £4 up. That showed them.

That said, every now and then I get the urge to go all in with online poker. Victoria Coren has made millions of dollars playing poker and says "genuinely" all the time in an irritating voice with far less self-awareness than I would have, so I reckon I would be a much better player than her.

My point couldn't be clearer. Good post.

I remember the PhD students at uni used to make a couple of hundred a night with online poker.  They were using degree level probability to determine their moves, though, which seemed a bit unsporting.

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #34 on: July 07, 2019, 10:44:55 AM »
I'd definitely recommend oddsmonkey over bonusbagging, I think you get more bang for your buck, plus cruikshank's not to be trusted imo. He tries to sell you stuff you don't need, when there are better versions available cheaper elsewhere.

Yes I'd probably agree about the amount of upselling he does, a lot of his more expensive products need a pretty large betting bank to get any worthwhile returns and some seem a bit pricey for what they offer, but Bonus Bagging is essentially a loss leader and for starting out is amazing value. Compared to OddsMonkey the one-off payment, as opposed to the subscription, is a big plus I'd say for a dabbler such as myself, as there's no ongoing pressure to make sure you're getting your money's worth.

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #35 on: July 08, 2019, 04:42:29 AM »
I've been buying old meat and selling it as brand new , its called MEAT MONEY, its already rotted silicon valley to the core.

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #36 on: July 08, 2019, 10:32:51 AM »
Yes I'd probably agree about the amount of upselling he does, a lot of his more expensive products need a pretty large betting bank to get any worthwhile returns and some seem a bit pricey for what they offer, but Bonus Bagging is essentially a loss leader and for starting out is amazing value. Compared to OddsMonkey the one-off payment, as opposed to the subscription, is a big plus I'd say for a dabbler such as myself, as there's no ongoing pressure to make sure you're getting your money's worth.

Yes, you're probably right. I just regret ever giving money to 'crooky'!

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #37 on: July 08, 2019, 10:39:10 AM »
The maths part of my brain has rotted as a result of neglect, but isn't punting the freebie a higher EV bet? On account of not needing to account for commission at the exchange? I appreciate that there are times when laying off the freebie is worthwhile (like if you're trying to lose at the bookies), and this is getting into the realms of actually understanding the maths and t&cs rather than following a system.

Is profitable though. I've certainly turned over a few grand doing it pretty casually - just the mainstream British books.

But EV is a gamblers fallacy frankly. You could earn the same, or lots more, punting freebets, you could also never win anything, because whilst it's freebets so you're not losing money, you're still gambling them.

It's a personal choice but I'm not a gambling fan frankly, I take guaranteed profit and that works for me. Also I've had 0% commission with smarkets for over a year now, generally both Oddsmonkey and Profit Accumulator have deals with the exchanges for those.

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #38 on: July 08, 2019, 01:12:37 PM »
Yes, with 0% commission, it makes no difference long-term if you punt or lay.

I'm not an expert mathematician, but I don't believe EV to be a gambler's fallacy. Casino offers will obey the law of large numbers and central limit theorum.

 Betting has, in addition, 'the wisdom of crowds', which inclines me to trust betting less over casino offers. Strikes me that the crowd has made some pretty stupid decisions in recent times.

Nothing wrong with taking the guaranteed profit of course.

Twed

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Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #39 on: July 08, 2019, 01:30:17 PM »
If there was a system to reliably generate money from gambling or cryptocurrency those markets would no longer be markets and would disappear

My source for this assertion is "well obviously".

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #40 on: July 08, 2019, 03:15:23 PM »
If there was a system to reliably generate money from gambling or cryptocurrency those markets would no longer be markets and would disappear

My source for this assertion is "well obviously".

Not as long as there are sufficient punters in the markets who aren't using such a system.

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Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #41 on: July 08, 2019, 03:25:26 PM »
I know a chap that makes a fair bit from poker, mainly online but he does the tournaments as well. He has a setup with multiple screens playing multiple games with
a HUD that shows him all sorts of info on probabilities, bet suggestions etc. I think these HUD's are not really legal and that there's a bit of an arms race between the betting companies and the guys that program the HUD software.

I've only ever seen him when we're both drunk though, so this could all be bollocks.

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #42 on: July 08, 2019, 03:28:01 PM »
EV clearly does exist, and there's no bankroll risk if you're punting freebies. It's just a matter of whether you want the guaranteed return or are happy with some variance. I took to over/underlaying at times if I fancied the outcome too.

If you punt on something where the odds closely match the exchange, it stands to reason that they are reasonably representative of the actual risk too since the back/lay markets tend to ~100% where there's enough interest. The question is whether the punterbase is correct as outlined above.

Some old housemates took to playing the casino bonuses which was a bit too rich for my budget as you could stand to lose a fair chunk if your bankroll went before turning over the play through requirements.

Blue Jam

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Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #43 on: July 08, 2019, 03:28:48 PM »
I remember the PhD students at uni used to make a couple of hundred a night with online poker.  They were using degree level probability to determine their moves, though, which seemed a bit unsporting.

I once read an interview with Steve Davis where he said something about how he makes a considerable amount playing online poker, and said anyone with a bit of a mathematical brain and good short-term memory skills should give it a go. While I personally wouldn't care about being unsporting, it does sound rather joyless, doesn't it? It also sounds like it takes a lot of dedication- fuck that, I couldn't even be arsed to do the poker challenges in RDR2.

I'm a complete wuss of a gambler. I feel very uncomfortable with the idea of putting more than a fiver on any bet, and today I worked out that I have made a total of five £5 bets in my life. Out of those, I lost four but got a return of £95 on the remaining one (James Cahill to beat Ronnie O'Sullivan at 18-1 back in April), which I immediately withdrew in full. I decided to quit while I was ahead... I don't think I'm in any danger of turning into Willie Thorne here.

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #44 on: July 08, 2019, 03:30:42 PM »
I've always found poker to be a bit of a too-serious chore.

I used to like playing bastard brag down the pub for small stakes to pass the time though.

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #45 on: July 09, 2019, 10:55:43 PM »
Bailed out on this plan because it turns out that I've got a fucking fiend-on for electronic slot machines. Desolate fucking scenes, lads.

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Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #46 on: July 09, 2019, 11:10:34 PM »
I once read an interview with Steve Davis where he said something about how he makes a considerable amount playing online poker, and said anyone with a bit of a mathematical brain and good short-term memory skills should give it a go. While I personally wouldn't care about being unsporting, it does sound rather joyless, doesn't it?

If you're looking to do online casino games for some reason poker is by far the best option, but it really is work.  I used to play low stakes years back but knocked it on the head because although I was playing to unwind of an evening, it was winding me right the fuck up.  Ending a session felt like clocking off after a shift.

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Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #47 on: July 09, 2019, 11:18:45 PM »
If you're looking to do online casino games for some reason poker is by far the best option, but it really is work.  I used to play low stakes years back but knocked it on the head because although I was playing to unwind of an evening, it was winding me right the fuck up.  Ending a session felt like clocking off after a shift.

I remember one Saturday afternoon spending 4 hours in a tournament and getting knocked out right before the bubble and thinking what a huge waste of time it had all been. I still dabble occasionally but really can't be arsed with the effort required. I remember reading about the schedule of an Argentinian guy to get on the tour and he worked out he was playing something like 14 hours a day for a full year. You can make good money but you're more likely to watch your life drift away.

Twed

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Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #48 on: July 09, 2019, 11:25:35 PM »
Not as long as there are sufficient punters in the markets who aren't using such a system.
I guess, but then the reason for that is probably that it takes massive amounts of effort/bankroll.

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Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #49 on: July 09, 2019, 11:35:34 PM »
I remember one Saturday afternoon spending 4 hours in a tournament and getting knocked out right before the bubble and thinking what a huge waste of time it had all been. I still dabble occasionally but really can't be arsed with the effort required. I remember reading about the schedule of an Argentinian guy to get on the tour and he worked out he was playing something like 14 hours a day for a full year. You can make good money but you're more likely to watch your life drift away.

If you’re actually playing to win, poker can be very fucking dull.

I was in a poker school for a while, and one fucker would turn up and always try to win. Never raised unless he had something, would be well conservative, would be well boring. These are your mates and you’re trying desperately hard to make 30 quid off them or whatever.

I’d always go in for a few hands because folding every round gets boring. I think I won once, but that was about it. I was more interested in the beers and having a chat.

The idea of trying to play it solely to win money (online, so there’s no fucker to shoot the shit with) fills me with dread.

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #50 on: July 10, 2019, 12:26:36 AM »
I've got a very simple model of sports gambling. On the one side, you've got gambling addicts, general 'mugs' aka squares, and recreational punters. The gambling industry is feeding off them. Then there are the professional punters, and would-be's, value bettors and the like. It's a cat-and-mouse game with them and the sportsbooks, trying to exploit each other. Then you have matched bettors, who are purely trying to exploit the sportsbooks, taking little or no risk.
On top of this, you have organised fraudsters who are feeding off every type of punter by breaking into their accounts and cleaning them out. Betfair is especially prone to this.

To me, it appears to be a parasitical system, but that might just be my model. The ones ultimately being preyed on are the compulsive gambling addicts, and I feel for them. I think much much more should be done to help people with this particular problem. It's essentially a tax on impulsivity.

It's a fallacy that all gamblers lose, just 99% of them do (according to Joseph Buchdahl anyway). Those that win consistently appear to have a margin of between 2 and 5%*. Patrick Veitch, legendary horse punter had a margin of 5%. It's a tiny advantage. Over thousands of pounds worth of bets, it might prove profitable, but then the bookmakers will close accounts and limit stakes of winning punters, as happened to me this very day.


*So you're betting £100 and hoping to make £2- £5

Rev+

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Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #51 on: July 10, 2019, 12:37:47 AM »
I remember one Saturday afternoon spending 4 hours in a tournament and getting knocked out right before the bubble and thinking what a huge waste of time it had all been.

Oh god yeah, so many of those moments, particularly when getting to tournaments through qualifiers.  Actually having to schedule my life around this business - nope, can't go out tonight, got a thing on that will eventually be just smoke and wasted time.

Thing is, I like poker as a game, but it's the kind of game that's impossible to play without having something at risk.  A quick go at the pretend money or even the very low stakes games on online casinos will tell you that - everyone just dicks around and doesn't even try to play properly.  If you're disciplined about your bankroll and aren't a complete idiot you'll not go broke, but actually making money long-term involves having 24 tables open at once and pissing in an empty Fanta bottle.

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #52 on: July 10, 2019, 09:23:24 AM »
I once turned a tenner free bet into £1400 quid via online roulette. I just kept going, didn't realise I had to spin a million times or whatever I just kept going and when I jumped from £700 to £1400, I shat my pants and withdrew it all. I couldn't stop thinking about how easy it had been, really got under my skin so a couple of nights later after a few whiskies I was at it again. Ended up having to bet the maximum stake on red (I think £500) to recoup all of my losses and walked away with about a grand. It took about three minutes. Could have all been wiped out in the time it takes to brew a cuppa. While I had still got a grand for basically nothing, it fucked me up how easily these numbers came and went and I didn't feel any different, really. It didn't seem like actual money, but I really felt I wanted the numbers to go up. First time had seemed so easy. Second time so disrespectful of my feelings and my existence. It was frightening. I felt like a charcoal briquette. Ego death. Grist. I self-excluded from every gambling website and I've not gone back since.

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #53 on: July 10, 2019, 09:26:17 AM »
Ah yes, that's my "system". I managed to profit 80 quid or thereabouts last month, by staying up all night doing this with 50p stakes. Cashed out 3/4s of it then tried again the following night - again got up to 80 odd quid then, jizzed it all when I got 12 reds in a row.

My finest moment as a "punter" came back in february, when this ludicrous ten-fold came good. £841, from a £1 stake. Keep the stakes low but dream big, I say.


i wonder how many variations there would be if you bet £1 on every possible outcome on a ten match accumulator. there must be a computer programme that could work this out right?

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #54 on: July 10, 2019, 09:29:44 AM »
842 off the top of my head.

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #55 on: July 10, 2019, 09:55:40 AM »
842 off the top of my head.

haha that would make sense wouldn't it?

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Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #56 on: July 10, 2019, 10:22:53 AM »
i wonder how many variations there would be if you bet £1 on every possible outcome on a ten match accumulator. there must be a computer programme that could work this out right?

3 possible outcomes (A wins, B wins, Draw) 10 times so 310 = 59049

Assuming they are all independent - it's when they are not that a program starts to get useful.

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Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #57 on: July 10, 2019, 03:23:40 PM »
This may be a stupid question, but has anyone developed a decent poker-playing AI that could one day make them a fucking million and get them banned from every online casino in the world?

Mind you, that sounds like an almighty faff, even more of a faff than just being a human studying the game and trying to git gud... However you approach it, poker's not a game for the lazy, is it?

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Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #58 on: July 10, 2019, 04:22:08 PM »
There's a Computer Poker world tournament. But playing poker vs. A.I. you just play the odds, because you don't have any mental model for how the machine is thinking, so it's not really the same game.

Re: Making terrific amounts of money via online gambling
« Reply #59 on: July 10, 2019, 04:32:40 PM »
I imagine the machine would be very probabilistic, and essentially the same as the boring players mentioned upthread that are trying desperately hard to win a small amount of money off their opponents.

Building a poker bot sounds more fun than playing poker though.