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Corbyn 25: Don't recall the time I felt this alive

Started by pancreas, October 15, 2019, 04:14:15 PM

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Is there any way the opposition parties can try to force Johnson's agreement through parliament and amend the shit out of it? It would be pretty bad optics if Johnson didn't vote in favour of his own deal, assuming amendments would come after the next step. Could that work or have I got that arse about?

Dr Rock

Quote from: LynnBenfield69 on October 25, 2019, 08:58:46 PM
Is there any way the opposition parties can try to force Johnson's agreement through parliament and amend the shit out of it? It would be pretty bad optics if Johnson didn't vote in favour of his own deal, assuming amendments would come after the next step. Could that work or have I got that arse about?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/25/rebel-mps-look-to-thwart-boris-johnsons-brexit-agenda

QuoteRebel MPs are exploring ways to seize control of the agenda from Boris Johnson by allowing parliament to debate and vote on Brexit legislation and a second referendum possibly as soon as next week.

Several MPs told the Guardian this was a plan under consideration if Johnson persisted with his insistence that his withdrawal agreement bill was "paused" until MPs agree to an election on 12 December.

Under the plans, which have been worked on since the summer by supporters of a second referendum and soft Brexit, MPs would again try to use procedure under standing order 24 to take control of the timetable in parliament.

They would then attempt to introduce either Johnson's Brexit deal or Theresa May's withdrawal agreement, with possible votes on adding a customs union, second referendum and extending transition to prevent departure on World Trade Organization terms
.

Kelvin

Quote from: Dr Rock on October 25, 2019, 08:45:41 PM
But I really don't want Brexit. People will die.

Yes, I accept I'm relatively unusual here in that I'm a remainer who doesn't really agree with a 2nd referendum In the first place, and who also believes we have next to no chance of ever having one anyway. I'm acutely aware that people could die though. I'm one of them, if I can't get the right epilepsy medication. I still think that, on a balance of probabilities, the situation I describe in my other posts is the best chance the left has of achieving meaningful change.

Cuellar

Most Remainers I know don't want a 2nd referendum

Kelvin

Quote from: Cuellar on October 25, 2019, 09:03:38 PM
Most Remainers I know don't want a 2nd referendum

Yes, but here it seems like a fairly popular option among the regular posters.

honeychile

Isn't a strategic problem with an election post-brexit is that all the FBPE cunts can actually let their "Labour/Corbyn failed to stand up to brexit" schtick go effectively unchallenged? Currently, a pre-brexit election means Labour offering a final vote, something those wavering towards voting Lib Dem or Green voters would be much more likely to support. If brexit goes ahead before an election, they can just "punish" Labour for being portrayed as failing to push back against it. We stand to lose more votes in that direction than we do to the Tories or Brexit Party i think.

We shouldn't spend the whole time on the defensive, we have the best manifesto in our lifetimes and the Green New Deal could be the pivotal point of the next campaign if we push it as hard as we should and seize the debate. But going for a post-brexit election just doesn't sound like very clever tactics.

jobotic

I really am in two minds about a second referendum, it's only the fact that leave are so scared of it that appeals.

I don't want it referred to as the fucking People's Vote though, as if it wasn't people that voted in the first one.

idunnosomename

Quote from: Cuellar on October 25, 2019, 09:03:38 PM
Most Remainers I know don't want a 2nd referendum
do they bounce up and down on a trampoline yelling "bollocks to brexit" while naked with the EU flag tattooed on their scrotum

Cuellar


Zetetic

Quote from: Kelvin on October 25, 2019, 08:38:21 PM
I agree, but I still think it would be better for Labour to face an election after Brexit has been completed by the Tories.
That's another two years away at an absolute minimum. It might dominate slightly less in the transition period but I really wouldn't assume this.

Kelvin

Quote from: honeychile on October 25, 2019, 09:16:43 PM
Isn't a strategic problem with an election post-brexit is that all the FBPE cunts can actually let their "Labour/Corbyn failed to stand up to brexit" schtick go effectively unchallenged? Currently, a pre-brexit election means Labour offering a final vote, something those wavering towards voting Lib Dem or Green voters would be much more likely to support. If brexit goes ahead before an election, they can just "punish" Labour for being portrayed as failing to push back against it. We stand to lose more votes in that direction than we do to the Tories or Brexit Party i think.

Brexit has fucked Labour whatever way you look at it, and Corbyn himself has been damaged by it. That's why I believe a new leader is (ideally) required, in order to shake off that baggage afterwards.     

QuoteWe shouldn't spend the whole time on the defensive, we have the best manifesto in our lifetimes and the Green New Deal could be the pivotal point of the next campaign if we push it as hard as we should and seize the debate. But going for a post-brexit election just doesn't sound like very clever tactics.

Those policies will be utterly drowned out in an election being fought for the soul of Brexit. You're right that our manifesto and platform is the best in our lifetimes. We can fight on that platform in a few years time when the focus has shifted back towards them again.

Quote from: Zetetic on October 25, 2019, 10:01:00 PM
That's another two years away at an absolute minimum. It might dominate slightly less in the transition period but I really wouldn't assume this.

Correct. I think at this stage we've missed our window of opportunity, and the next one will be after the Brexit transition period, and with a new leader.

Let's be clear though; I'm not saying it is impossible to win a) with Corbyn, or b) in circumstances other than the ones I'm describing. However, I do believe it is far, far less likely, and much more likely to have serious consequences for the left (and therefore the entire country) if we fail to win. 

Dr Rock

The best case scenario is Labour wins because Brexit splits the Brexit Vote between the Brexit Party and the Brexit Tories. It's well doable.

JohnnyCouncil

Quote from: honeychile on October 25, 2019, 09:16:43 PM
Isn't a strategic problem with an election post-brexit is that all the FBPE cunts can actually let their "Labour/Corbyn failed to stand up to brexit" schtick go effectively unchallenged? Currently, a pre-brexit election means Labour offering a final vote, something those wavering towards voting Lib Dem or Green voters would be much more likely to support. If brexit goes ahead before an election, they can just "punish" Labour for being portrayed as failing to push back against it. We stand to lose more votes in that direction than we do to the Tories or Brexit Party i think.

They won't vote Labour under Corbyn anyway.

Replies From View

Quote from: Sebastian Cobb on October 25, 2019, 08:43:25 PM
I'm just terrified that if Corbyn doesn't manage to do well, it'll be used as evidence that bringing Labour back as a left-wing party was a failed experiment, and it'll be used to instil some 'sensible' centrist bellend like Jess Philips rather than I dunno, Laura Pidcock.

The membership will be choosing the leader though, presumably.  The problem is that it's not easy to know who we should get behind, and a lot of people we assumed were good eggs have turned out to be bad seeds after all.

Kelvin

Quote from: Dr Rock on October 25, 2019, 10:28:50 PM
The best case scenario is Labour wins because Brexit splits the Brexit Vote between the Brexit Party and the Brexit Tories. It's well doable.

Why would the Brexit Party split the Tory vote when Johnson is widely considered a hardline Brexiteer nowadays. Even a delay will be spun as obstruction, rather than fear of No Deal.

In contrast, Labour's vote will be split by the Lib Dems posing as the only true Remain party - they defined their (one) policy much faster and more clearly in the mind of the public. I do accept that closer attention being paid during a campaign will result in a boost for Labour, but I think Labour still stand to lose more of their vote to the Lib Dems than Johnson's Tories do to the Brexit Party.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

QuoteWhy would the Brexit Party split the Tory vote when Johnson is widely considered a hardline Brexiteer nowadays.

Cos the true believers are being persuaded by Farage to believe no deal is the only true Brexit.

If Boris is leaned on enough to move even further towards that position to shore up support then he could find he loses even more of the middle ground who would then find the prospect of a 2nd vote more tempting.

It was interesting seeing Corbyn change his language to referring to Boris' new 'EU treaty'. I wondered at the time if it was deliberate, perhaps so.

Replies From View

I think most voters don't pick up most of these nuances even if they are following the news every day.  It'll come down to lolboris-doing-it-for-the-people vs you-can't-trust-him-can-you-Corbyn - two positions that have become ingrained and absolute and won't now change in a matter of months.

Johnny Yesno

Quote from: Kelvin on October 25, 2019, 10:25:57 PM
Brexit has fucked Labour whatever way you look at it, and Corbyn himself has been damaged by it. That's why I believe a new leader is (ideally) required, in order to shake off that baggage afterwards.

You've been reading too much centrist twitter. If it wasn't brexit, they'd find something else to say had damaged Corbyn. They are implacable. Ignore them.

QuoteThose policies will be utterly drowned out in an election being fought for the soul of Brexit. You're right that our manifesto and platform is the best in our lifetimes. We can fight on that platform in a few years time when the focus has shifted back towards them again.

If you think leaving the EU will be the end of it and we'll have the space to campaign on the things that matter, then you are sadly deluded. That all we need to do is 'get brexit done' and we can get on with saving the NHS is exactly the message Cummings has been pushing through his fake clown. It's true that brexit politics is currently all-consuming but you shouldn't believe for one minute that brexit under the tories won't be equally all-consuming. That's kind of the point of it.

And you absolutely cannot be serious about suggesting waiting a few years and then going on to say this:

QuoteCorrect. I think at this stage we've missed our window of opportunity, and the next one will be after the Brexit transition period, and with a new leader.

The window of opportunity is now. We have a huge motivated activist base. Everyone will get bored and bugger off if we listen to the likes of you. They won't wait a few years.

QuoteLet's be clear though; I'm not saying it is impossible to win a) with Corbyn, or b) in circumstances other than the ones I'm describing. However, I do believe it is far, far less likely, and much more likely to have serious consequences for the left (and therefore the entire country) if we fail to win.

No. Whichever way the tories manage to stay in power, it'll be a disaster.

Kelvin

Quote from: Johnny Yesno on October 26, 2019, 12:46:56 AM
You've been reading too much centrist twitter. If it wasn't brexit, they'd find something else to say had damaged Corbyn. They are implacable. Ignore them.

Actually I've been hanging out with left wingers. It's the shift on here in the last year or so and also in my friendship groups that has indicated to me that many people who were enthusiastically pro-Corbyn are now cooler on him as a result of Brexit. Anecdotal experience that has been backed up by a shift in the polls towards the Lib Dems with their simpler Brexit messaging. 

QuoteIf you think leaving the EU will be the end of it and we'll have the space to campaign on the things that matter, then you are sadly deluded. That all we need to do is 'get brexit done' and we can get on with saving the NHS is exactly the message Cummings has been pushing through his fake clown. It's true that it's all-consuming but you shouldn't believe for one minute that brexit under the tories won't be equally all-consuming. That's kind of the point of it.

The actual act of getting Brexit "done" (ie. the symbolic act of leaving) is all consuming and does not play to Labour's strengths in a way that solving the domestic issues it creates will do.

QuoteThe window of opportunity is now. We have a huge motivated activist base. Everyone will get bored and bugger off if we listen to the likes of you. They won't wait a few years.

I disagree. I think there was a window - quite a large one - where Corbyn could have realistically won an election if circumstances had allowed for one. They did not, and in fairness, that's probably because he had such a good chance of winning. The closest we got was the last few months of May's leadership. Personally, I believe that the left itself is more divided on Corbyn now than it was a year ago, specifically because of Brexit, which is why I think he will find it much harder this time than at the last election. The buzz around Corbyn, and the buzz I'd like to see them rebuild, was a result of his domestic agenda, and that can be recaptured (to some extent) by a new leader.

I'm not saying it is inconceivable for Corbyn to win in these strange and unpredictable times. The public could obviously shift back to Labour if an election campaign focuses attention on Labour's actual Brexit policy and domestic platform, but I think this time the Lib Dems will hit Labour harder over Brexit than the Brexit party will hit the Johnson led Tories. I believe an election now would most likely see Corbyn defeated, forced to step down, and then replaced by someone who has to carry the blame for whatever form Brexit takes.

BlodwynPig

Give over Kelvin, stop rubbing your wish lamp and get behind Corbyn. No more concessions to the glib.

Dr Rock

May went into the 2017 election with a net approval rating +21% (where the percentage of those who disapprove of her leadership is subtracted from the number who approve) while that for Corbyn was -35%.

As of Sept 2019, Boris Johnson's net approval is -16. (Corbyn -49.)   

So Brexit has affected both parties and their leaders, but right now there is a significantly smaller gap in the lead for the serving Tory PM.

It's also worth remembering that just before the 2017 election was probably the point at which a lot on the left had lost confidence in Corbyn. You had the likes of Owen Jones saying it was time for him to go. It was the election campaign building momentum that turned this around.

Dr Rock

The figures I quoted may be outdated and also come from unreliable YouGov

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

Corbyn currently about -38, Johnson all over the place (see link) but possibly about -10.

evilcommiedictator

I reckon the Sinn Fein MPs should have broke their rule and turned up to vote in Boris' deal through, given that it's the quickest path to unification

Johnny Yesno

Quote from: Kelvin on October 26, 2019, 01:08:55 AM
Actually I've been hanging out with left wingers. It's the shift on here in the last year or so and also in my friendship groups that has indicated to me that many people who were enthusiastically pro-Corbyn are now cooler on him as a result of Brexit. Anecdotal experience that has been backed up by a shift in the polls towards the Lib Dems with their simpler Brexit messaging.

If your friends need that kind of 'simpler brexit messaging' then you need new friends. 

QuoteThe actual act of getting Brexit "done" (ie. the symbolic act of leaving) is all consuming and does not play to Labour's strengths in a way that solving the domestic issues it creates will do.

Which is why the strategy of trying to defang the thing is the right one. You're the one obsessing about brexit.

QuoteI disagree. I think there was a window - quite a large one - where Corbyn could have realistically won an election if circumstances had allowed for one. They did not, and in fairness, that's probably because he had such a good chance of winning. The closest we got was the last few months of May's leadership. Personally, I believe that the left itself is more divided on Corbyn now than it was a year ago, specifically because of Brexit, which is why I think he will find it much harder this time than at the last election. The buzz around Corbyn, and the buzz I'd like to see them rebuild, was a result of his domestic agenda, and that can be recaptured (to some extent) by a new leader.

I'm not saying it is inconceivable for Corbyn to win in these strange and unpredictable times. The public could obviously shift back to Labour if an election campaign focuses attention on Labour's actual Brexit policy and domestic platform, but I think this time the Lib Dems will hit Labour harder over Brexit than the Brexit party will hit the Johnson led Tories. I believe an election now would most likely see Corbyn defeated, forced to step down, and then replaced by someone who has to carry the blame for whatever form Brexit takes.

Kelvin, you've been fretting about one thing or another since Corbyn became leader. You are a fretter, a Goldilocks obsessive. That kind of politics is dead. It's all adaptive shit now. Our opponents break stuff to see what falls out and they rely on their opponents to wait for the perfect time/person/etc. Then when it comes, they'll break that too.

Johnny Yesno

Quote from: The Always Red Society on October 26, 2019, 08:29:22 AM
It's also worth remembering that just before the 2017 election was probably the point at which a lot on the left had lost confidence in Corbyn. You had the likes of Owen Jones saying it was time for him to go. It was the election campaign building momentum that turned this around.

Exactly, and it was somewhat self-fulfilling. Are people who should know better going to fall for that again?

Johnny Yesno

Ah, I've just realised you've been reading Freedland, haven't you, Kelvin?

NoSleep

What would be the point of reading Freedland? Like drinking poison.

Johnny Yesno

Quote from: NoSleep on October 26, 2019, 09:05:03 AM
What would be the point of reading Freedland? Like drinking poison.

I've just read it. DEAD SOON

I'm not singling kelvin out but I do encounter a lot of this from people who are clearly not keen on corbyns politics, dressing their constant criticisms and doubts up in some kind of "concerned, of the left" type bollocks.
Why can't some centrists just admit that while they go in for all the gay rights stuff they absolutely draw the line at any economic policies that threaten the status quo that they personally have benefitted  from.