Author Topic: General Erection  (Read 121176 times)

gib

  • still within the realms of safety
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1110 on: November 09, 2019, 08:20:54 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/09/tories-poll-advantage-faltering-labour-gaining-ground

HYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYPPPPPPPPPPPPPEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR TEXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXT

Quote
Some 66% of Labour Leavers now plan to vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s party on 12 December, up nine points compared with a week ago.

Similarly, 48% of Labour Remainers are planning to vote for the party, sharply up on last week.

With the Lib Dems down to 15%, you have to wonder who the remaining 52% of Labour Remainers are planning to vote for.

Re: General Erection
« Reply #1111 on: November 09, 2019, 08:21:42 PM »
Aren't they ruining their own attempts at suppression by sending you a reminder?

You won't remember what this was about now but whatever- the whole point is that I was already registered to vote. The deregistration and having to register all over again for reason part is the concerning element.

Zetetic

  • Worrying the carcass of an old song.
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1112 on: November 09, 2019, 08:28:22 PM »
With the Lib Dems down to 15%, you have to wonder who the remaining 52% of Labour Remainers are planning to vote for.
"Not sure", perhaps, right now.

(97 Labour candidates have now pledged to campaign for Remain.)

pancreas

  • The islets of Langerhans are the very best islets
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1113 on: November 09, 2019, 08:51:39 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/09/tories-poll-advantage-faltering-labour-gaining-ground

HYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYPPPPPPPPPPPPPEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR TEXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXT

I feel a new chapter of Debretts is in order.

Dr Rock

  • The BEST of luck!
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1114 on: November 09, 2019, 08:53:38 PM »
Can't wait for Swinson to excuse her falling popularity with 'polls can be misleading'

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1115 on: November 09, 2019, 09:35:43 PM »
I’d like to see a similar movement in another poll before reading anything into it. Opinium was a bit of an outlier in my opinion. (Guardian watchers will be pleased to note they referred to this one as a survey, rather than a poll, presumably because it moved in the wrong direction for them)

Zetetic

  • Worrying the carcass of an old song.
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1116 on: November 09, 2019, 09:55:53 PM »

kalowski

  • the Zone of Zero Funkativity
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1117 on: November 09, 2019, 10:40:51 PM »
Sam Freedman is a right cock. A former civil servant with Gove's DfE, he's been tweeting against Labour for fucking ages. And now he hates the idea of any poll showing Labour improving...
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1193293738254180353?s=09

ZoyzaSorris

  • Brimming with innards
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1118 on: November 09, 2019, 10:41:26 PM »
Freedland obviously feeling very  apologetic and humbled.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/09/jews-brexit-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn

fucking hell. what an absolute bullshitting arsehole that man is.

Re: General Erection
« Reply #1119 on: November 09, 2019, 11:29:47 PM »
imagine working for a newspaper. you might as well ram your head up your own anus and swallow your own steaming faeces constantly

Dr Rock

  • The BEST of luck!
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1120 on: November 10, 2019, 04:38:54 AM »
I’d like to see a similar movement in another poll before reading anything into it. Opinium was a bit of an outlier in my opinion. (Guardian watchers will be pleased to note they referred to this one as a survey, rather than a poll, presumably because it moved in the wrong direction for them)

Opinium, like YouGov, pay people to do their polls. And they also consistently come up with results that estimate a bigger gap between Labour and Tories than other polling companies

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/oct/31/uk-general-election-2019-poll-tracker

for example, two polls on Oct 17
Opinium L 24 C 37 13 point gap
ComRes L 29 C 33 4 point gap

and ICM had a 7 point gap on Nov 4th. All polls could be a long way off, but these ones that pay people to do them by signing them up to make easy cash all seem to favour Tories and have the worst numbers for Labour. Wonder why the newspapers like using them so much?

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1121 on: November 10, 2019, 08:06:29 AM »
Annoying therefore that the “better” polls haven’t moved as much, or in the opposite direction. There really needs to be some movement soon if we are going to see a repeat of 2017.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Mr Moose is up! It's done done done!
    • http://jackanderton.jamendo.net/
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1122 on: November 10, 2019, 08:06:45 AM »
I would still campaign on the basis that the polls are correct even if they aren't. Ie. This is a fucking existential moment for Labour, the NHS, the survival of the UK as an entity along with our membership of the EU.

BlodwynPig

  • The Last Living Member of COVID-20
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1123 on: November 10, 2019, 08:28:25 AM »
Polls
Shifts
Send them back home

Just get it done

Awful people, awful society

Scorch and rebuild

Dr Rock

  • The BEST of luck!
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1124 on: November 10, 2019, 08:55:05 AM »
Annoying therefore that the “better” polls haven’t moved as much, or in the opposite direction. There really needs to be some movement soon if we are going to see a repeat of 2017.

Polls are one thing, but it's going to come down to those marginal seats. The Tory plan to take Northern/Midlands towns to offset losses everywhere else doesn't seem to be working out. The LibDems could fuck things up for Labour gains but still all to play for. It won't be like 2017 because that was a two horse race, it's probably going to depend on whether the fucking libdems will join the Tories again or not.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Mr Moose is up! It's done done done!
    • http://jackanderton.jamendo.net/
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1125 on: November 10, 2019, 09:01:54 AM »
It's difficult as we don't want Brexit to consume everything but we absolutely need Remainers to realise a Labour government is the crucial component, indeed a prerequisite of achieving their desired outcome. That will turn it into a 2 horse race.

« Last Edit: November 10, 2019, 09:17:07 AM by Shoulders?-Stomach! »

Dr Rock

  • The BEST of luck!
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1126 on: November 10, 2019, 09:10:14 AM »
And we have all those hundreds of thousands of new mostly young voters who have signed up, I bet none of the pollsters are great at reaching them.

How many political ads have been on the telly? Do enough people know Labour are scrapping tuition fees? You'd think that would be quite an incentive for anyone with kids planning to go to university. We haven't even had the manifestos yet.

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1127 on: November 10, 2019, 09:15:18 AM »
I appreciate the distribution of votes is important. However, you'll need a really fucking weird distribution if you're going to be the largest party when trailing 8-odd points in vote share. I think if we get within a couple of points on the polls, we're in with a shot, but it's reckless to suggest they are qualitatively wrong.

But there is some weirdness going on. I know twatter is s4c but I have tried to follow a reasonable cross-section of left, centre and right (to the extent I can stomach the latter), and most of the replies seem to be coming from the left. Also, the pictures of the large number of volunteers coming out to support the local Labour campaigns make those for the LDs and Cons look sterile. Probably one can put this down to Labour supporters being more likely to get involved in campaigning, particularly when there is so much to play for, and they are trailing behind. Whether this will cut through is a good question; my feeling was that in 2017 the Westminster journalists just followed the top-level campaigns, and missed a lot of what was going on on the ground, which was why they seemed shocked and disbelieving at the result on the night.

The LDs need neutralising - I fear your "grown-up realists" who might have leant their vote last time will need a hell of a lot of persuading this time. They seem oddly credulous when it comes to the cult of Swinson.

Dr Rock

  • The BEST of luck!
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1128 on: November 10, 2019, 09:22:57 AM »
Hopefully the LibDem manifesto will be full of guff like Skills Wallets and tory-lite policies, and Swinson will make herself look more foolish every time she opens her gob. At the moment most of their support is for Revoke, and new supporters' projection that their other policies will be in line with what they'd like to see. The only way is further down I reckon.

Brexit party don't seem to be eating into the Tory vote as much as hoped, but again that could change once Farage gets more exposure.

buttgammon

  • How thick is wall?
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1129 on: November 10, 2019, 09:31:06 AM »
Brexit party don't seem to be eating into the Tory vote as much as hoped, but again that could change once Farage gets more exposure.

You can see the cognitive dissonance within the party, in that a lot of them will be happy with this. Naturally, Farage will be chuffed to have even more opportunities to gob off on the telly (these really have dwindled for him since the Tories stole his policies) but at the local level, they don't seem to have much campaigning infrastructure in a lot of areas. In my constituency, they've stood a relatively high profile guy who used to be in the Welsh Assembly, but he's done nothing in the area and now he's been listed as a candidate in the other end of the country as well, so we don't know what's going on. Maybe he's standing in both (if you can still do that; the last examples I've heard of were in Ireland 101 years ago), maybe they're planning on stepping aside to let the Tories win this Labour-Tory marginal, or maybe they're just apathetic.

BlodwynPig

  • The Last Living Member of COVID-20
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1130 on: November 10, 2019, 10:05:14 AM »
Javid crumbles on Marr. No-one will vote for this toad again. CostofCorbyn.com ffs. Weasel toad cunt liar scum bastard despot

BlodwynPig

  • The Last Living Member of COVID-20
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1131 on: November 10, 2019, 10:10:48 AM »
JAVID GONE

NJ Uncut

  • Good luck anyone on Universal Credit x
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1132 on: November 10, 2019, 10:15:15 AM »
Javid crumbles on Marr. No-one will vote for this toad again. CostofCorbyn.com ffs. Weasel toad cunt liar scum bastard despot

Amazing that website, seems to actively want to mimick a red top tabloid bogroll paper.

Not sure that "the figures that John McDonnell did not want people to see!" is as sexy a tagline as they think it is.

Zetetic

  • Worrying the carcass of an old song.
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1133 on: November 10, 2019, 10:15:31 AM »
Maybe he's standing in both (if you can still do that; the last examples I've heard of were in Ireland 101 years ago),
Not in the UK. (It's a big thing in India apparently.)

BlodwynPig

  • The Last Living Member of COVID-20
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1134 on: November 10, 2019, 10:18:10 AM »
Amazing that website, seems to actively want to mimick a red top tabloid bogroll paper.

Not sure that "the figures that John McDonnell did not want people to see!" is as sexy a tagline as they think it is.

Nevermind, come Dec 13th you’ll be getting him as your new boss in big oil

Dr Rock

  • The BEST of luck!
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1135 on: November 10, 2019, 10:18:24 AM »
Lucas unable to answer why if you're Green but can't vote for them locally because of the pact, why wouldn't you vote Labour instead. Their green policies seem more robust than anything we've heard from the LibDems.

Re: General Erection
« Reply #1136 on: November 10, 2019, 10:31:02 AM »
fucking hell. what an absolute bullshitting arsehole that man is.
I tune in and out of the AS allegation stories and had sort of generally assumed that new stuff must have come to light for them to still be worth writing about. But, no appararently, the worst thing that JC has ever done, of the three things that Freedland accuses him of, the terrible, hateful thing that makes this monster unfit to govern, is to have asked why a mural was removed. On Facebook. About ten years ago, before he was leader.

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1137 on: November 10, 2019, 10:37:54 AM »
I think the Carden story, combined with the bullying of the QT audience contributor who was brave enough to counter the established narrative (along with others), has convinced me that the majority of the press reporting of AS in Labour needs to be taken with a massive pinch of salt. These people aren't saying anything particularly controversial - namely that incidents have occurred, do occur and should be dealt with, but this is not an institutionalised problem - but the strength of the slapdown is chilling.

buttgammon

  • How thick is wall?
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1138 on: November 10, 2019, 11:21:25 AM »
Not in the UK. (It's a big thing in India apparently.)

He's moved to a much less marginal constituency, so it looks like this might be a case of them helping the Tories.

Re: General Erection
« Reply #1139 on: November 10, 2019, 12:27:57 PM »
I tune in and out of the AS allegation stories and had sort of generally assumed that new stuff must have come to light for them to still be worth writing about. But, no appararently, the worst thing that JC has ever done, of the three things that Freedland accuses him of, the terrible, hateful thing that makes this monster unfit to govern, is to have asked why a mural was removed. On Facebook. About ten years ago, before he was leader.
that mural sums up the AS problem. And how if you're not careful general left protest of few bad rich people oppressing workers can slip into antisemitism. I think it was supposed to be a specific individual at the table but it looked like a generic greedy Jew. It was wasy to miss overall and most of the press images misleadingly cropped it.

And yeah it isnt excusable because it could cause repercussions on the Jewish community who arent bad or even rich. Just like the Tories nationalist and immigrant rhetoric could embolden hatred of Muslims or even people percieved to be Mudlim. But people like Javid wont acknowledge that and they dont get dragged across coals for it  like Labour do

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