Author Topic: General Erection  (Read 96706 times)

pancreas

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Re: General Erection
« Reply #1350 on: November 12, 2019, 11:33:49 AM »
Yes, that sounds about right to me. The LDs are in a similar situation. Won't go into coalition with Labour, can't go into coalition with Boris who's promising hard Brexit, so want a hung parliament where they can virtue-signal for another year or two.

buttgammon

  • You can't trust a man what's made of gas
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1351 on: November 12, 2019, 11:35:57 AM »
I had no idea they were running. Sargon not involved?

I was amazed to find out yesterday that they still existed. They're leaderless at the moment but the last leader was called something Braine (no word of a lie, I spent a good ten minutes laughing my head off about this). I imagine they're going the way of the BNP, and will stand in an ever-decreasing number of constituencies until they go out of business altogether.

hamfist

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Re: General Erection
« Reply #1352 on: November 12, 2019, 11:38:50 AM »
I was amazed to find out yesterday that they still existed. They're leaderless at the moment but the last leader was called something Braine (no word of a lie, I spent a good ten minutes laughing my head off about this). I imagine they're going the way of the BNP, and will stand in an ever-decreasing number of constituencies until they go out of business altogether.

Indeed. It was Dick Braine.


buttgammon

  • You can't trust a man what's made of gas
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1353 on: November 12, 2019, 11:39:39 AM »
Indeed. It was Dick Braine.



Great, that's going to set me off again!

Brilliant case of nominative determinism.

Blue Jam

  • AM NO A GRASS
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1354 on: November 12, 2019, 11:42:11 AM »
Looking at this logically, he's simply trying to ensure a hung parliament with roughly the same arithmetic as now. If he doesn't split the Tory vote in Tory seats, they (theoretically) stay Tory. If he splits it in Labour seats, those seats stay Labour.

Why would he want that? Because a hung parliament is paralysis, paralysis means we don't leave the EU, and not leaving the EU means that he and his BXP MEP cronies get to maintain the betrayal narrative and keep cashing those salaries and building up their pension pots.

Yes, Nigel Farage never actually wanted Brexit, he wanted to maintain his nice comfortable life of drawing an £80,000 salary despite barely turning up to work, and a media career of playing the plucky underdog. He was even saying that if Remain won by a small margin that the vote shouldn't count, he never expected Leave to win and he wasn't prepared for it. Again, he was probably just planning to quit as leader of UKIP and go back to doing fuck-all as an MEP, or quitting politics for a life of raking it in as an after-dinner speaker, and the unexpected victory for Leave just threw a spanner in the works.

If anything Corbyn may even be more pro-Leave than Farage is, but the Farage groupies just need to believe in him and they refuse to see him for what he is.

Re: General Erection
« Reply #1355 on: November 12, 2019, 11:45:28 AM »
Momentum posted a nice graph yesterday overlaying current polling with where we were with a month to go last time, along with the message 'We've not even started yet'. Please someone post it, it got me semi hard.

Paul Calf

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Re: General Erection
« Reply #1356 on: November 12, 2019, 11:46:58 AM »
Playing for the draw is fucking idiotic. It always ends in a penalty shootout...



...WITH GERMANY.

Re: General Erection
« Reply #1357 on: November 12, 2019, 11:52:00 AM »
Momentum posted a nice graph yesterday overlaying current polling with where we were with a month to go last time, along with the message 'We've not even started yet'. Please someone post it, it got me semi hard.



Phwoooarr!!




Re: General Erection
« Reply #1358 on: November 12, 2019, 11:58:08 AM »
*Cums literally everywhere*

Noonling

  • You can no longer jump without feet.
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1359 on: November 12, 2019, 12:26:20 PM »
I'm intrigued by all this Farage/Swinson/LD nonsense - if they genuinely don't care for what they spout and just want to keep their jobs and £££ and power, would you consider that behavior psychopathic, or merely incredibly selfish? And do people think they are consciously aware of their true motivations, or they lie to themselves as well?

Paul Calf

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Re: General Erection
« Reply #1360 on: November 12, 2019, 01:36:14 PM »
Farage knows exactly what he's doing. He's been planning it for his entire adult life.

Swinson's harder to read. There's obviously a huge degree of political and personal opportunism there, but whether she knows exactly what she's messing with is another question.

We know she's mercenary, but how stupid is she? History will judge her very very badly.

Re: General Erection
« Reply #1361 on: November 12, 2019, 01:39:31 PM »
I'm intrigued by all this Farage/Swinson/LD nonsense - if they genuinely don't care for what they spout and just want to keep their jobs and £££ and power, would you consider that behavior psychopathic, or merely incredibly selfish? And do people think they are consciously aware of their true motivations, or they lie to themselves as well?

I'm guessing they exist in an environment were real self awareness simply doesn't happen, they've never seriously been challenged by anyone close to them.

Fambo Number Mive

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Re: General Erection
« Reply #1362 on: November 12, 2019, 01:41:31 PM »
Will Clinton's comments make much difference to the election?

Buelligan

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Re: General Erection
« Reply #1363 on: November 12, 2019, 01:43:18 PM »
The headlines on the BBC website I saw really put me off, didn't bother reading them.  I don't find her an interesting, trustworthy or likable person.

Farage knows exactly what he's doing. He's been planning it for his entire adult life.

Swinson's harder to read. There's obviously a huge degree of political and personal opportunism there, but whether she knows exactly what she's messing with is another question.

We know she's mercenary, but how stupid is she? History will judge her very very badly.

I see Farage in more bestial terms.  I think he feels and is compelled to move towards rewards, rather than having a strategy (unless the imperative to feed endlessly is a strategy).  I think the thing he feeds is his ego and the hole where his humanity died.

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1364 on: November 12, 2019, 01:47:25 PM »
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 35% (+1)
LAB: 29% (+3)
LDEM: 17% (-2)
BREX: 10% (-2)
GRN: 1% (-)

via
@Survation, 06 - 08 Nov Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

Six-point gap. And a month to go.

Dr Rock

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Re: General Erection
« Reply #1365 on: November 12, 2019, 01:51:31 PM »
Wahey!

Paul Calf

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Re: General Erection
« Reply #1366 on: November 12, 2019, 01:53:04 PM »
Time for a Reichstag fire?

Dr Rock

  • The BEST of luck!
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1367 on: November 12, 2019, 01:53:48 PM »
I fully expect this to be front page news of The Guardian tomorrow.

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1368 on: November 12, 2019, 02:17:30 PM »
I mean, all the shifts are small, but it seems to be systematic across the polls, so this may be the start of the trend I was hoping for. Still a long way to go, though.

Noonling

  • You can no longer jump without feet.
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1369 on: November 12, 2019, 02:20:49 PM »
I wonder how much polls affect voting, whether the "fuck, my party is doing poorly, gotta make sure I vote/campaign" vs "My party will win easy, so who cares" vs "Huh, maybe there is something iffy about my party if it's doing so badly" etc all balance themselves out.

Or indeed if anyone cares besides political commentaters and people on Prozac.

Re: General Erection
« Reply #1370 on: November 12, 2019, 02:28:14 PM »
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 35% (+1)
LAB: 29% (+3)
LDEM: 17% (-2)
BREX: 10% (-2)
GRN: 1% (-)

via
@Survation, 06 - 08 Nov Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

Six-point gap. And a month to go.

It's a bit rum that they're doing a Bernie Sanders and not including that bourbon cream (if you know what I mean...) in these results as it's polling really well at the moment.

Dr Rock

  • The BEST of luck!
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1371 on: November 12, 2019, 02:31:35 PM »
I wonder how much polls affect voting, whether the "fuck, my party is doing poorly, gotta make sure I vote/campaign" vs "My party will win easy, so who cares" vs "Huh, maybe there is something iffy about my party if it's doing so badly" etc all balance themselves out.

Or indeed if anyone cares besides political commentaters and people on Prozac.

Remember Paul Whitehouse's character in The Fast Show who always went with someone else's opinion? I reckon there are a lot of people like that. If one of their mates starts saying they're thinking of voting Labour, they'll think that too. So as a party goes up in the polls, some people might think 'well they can't all be marxist loonies, loads of people seem to be changing their minds, maybe they're right and I'll have a rethink too'

chveik

  • I will monetize your eyeballs
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1372 on: November 12, 2019, 02:35:41 PM »
or they'll think exactly the contrary. no one knows.

Dr Rock

  • The BEST of luck!
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1373 on: November 12, 2019, 02:39:18 PM »
The people I'm describing won't.

greencalx

  • Never knowingly knowledgeable
Re: General Erection
« Reply #1374 on: November 12, 2019, 02:48:05 PM »
I think polls might have an effect on the polls, if not much effect on the way that people end up voting.

My thinking is that most people probably already know how they are going to vote next month (and my guess is pretty much the same way they voted in 2017). However, anyone who is sensitive to headlines etc might feel a bit shy about expressing an intention to vote Labour at this stage. As more people do so, they start to feel confident, and express their confidence in the polls. It might make them more likely to show up on the day.

All just a theory - but how many swing voters have you ever met?

EDIT: affect/effect cunt

Re: General Erection
« Reply #1375 on: November 12, 2019, 02:51:41 PM »
It's a bit rum that they're doing a Bernie Sanders and not including that bourbon cream (if you know what I mean...) in these results as it's polling really well at the moment.

The SNP we talking about?

Also what is the use of the Brexit Party in polls if they are not standing in so many places?

Paul Calf

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Re: General Erection
« Reply #1376 on: November 12, 2019, 02:55:22 PM »
It's a bit rum that they're doing a Bernie Sanders and not including that bourbon cream (if you know what I mean...) in these results as it's polling really well at the moment.


Johnny Yesno

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Re: General Erection
« Reply #1377 on: November 12, 2019, 03:12:26 PM »
Look what appears at the top of the search results for each of the various parties:

https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=jsrKXfOrAY2hUJWRo4gJ&q=labour+party&oq=labour+party&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0i131j0j0i131l3j0i3j0i131l3j0.1965.5572..8360...0.0..0.49.487.12......0....1..gws-wiz.4uDGBwLFLZ0&ved=0ahUKEwjzqvbJ-eTlAhWNEBQKHZXICJEQ4dUDCAc&uact=5

https://www.google.co.uk/search?ei=lsrKXc34KNTqxgPWwqT4Bg&q=conservative+party&oq=conservative+party&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0i131i67j0j0i131i67j0i67j0i131i67j0j0i67l3j0i131.95612.98806..102045...0.0..0.57.579.12......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i7i30j0i13.fiSl-AbTytw&ved=0ahUKEwjNm4bO-eTlAhVUtXEKHVYhCW8Q4dUDCAo&uact=5

https://www.google.co.uk/search?ei=_crKXYnZLZ6U1fAP_c2TgAI&q=brexit+party&oq=brexit+party&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0i131i67j0i131j0i131i67j0i131l2j0j0i131j0i131i67j0i131l2.39926.43904..44994...2.2..0.88.443.8......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i71j0i7i30j0i13j0i67j0i10.w1LBL0wkONE&ved=0ahUKEwjJy5n_-eTlAhUeShUIHf3mBCAQ4dUDCAo&uact=5

https://www.google.co.uk/search?ei=K8vKXe3ZJ6Cn1fAPo9uVkAk&q=liberal+democrat+party&oq=liberal+democrat+party&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0i131j0l9.30902.35228..37240...0.0..0.137.1084.15j1......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i7i30j0i67j0i13j0i10j0i131i273j0i13i10j0i13i70i251j0i333j0i70i251.c7e1RK8E36M&ved=0ahUKEwitm4uV-uTlAhWgUxUIHaNtBZIQ4dUDCAo&uact=5

https://www.google.co.uk/search?ei=UcvKXfrxMsC91fAPzuWS6AY&q=green+party&oq=green+party&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0i131i67j0i131i273j0j0i67l3j0i131j0i131i67j0l2.21663.22631..24422...0.2..0.115.366.4j1......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i71j0i7i30.nVcwF-tDS5w&ved=0ahUKEwi63qWn-uTlAhXAXhUIHc6yBG0Q4dUDCAo&uact=5

Re: General Erection
« Reply #1378 on: November 12, 2019, 03:15:21 PM »
Well, that's one mystery solved:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farages-shock-peerage-claim-20860581

He said he's going to turn it down, and maybe he will or maybe he won't, but istm the important thing is what it tells us about the Tories that they offered it.

Re: General Erection
« Reply #1379 on: November 12, 2019, 04:49:54 PM »
Had two polling companies call me so far. The first one, I said no. Then the second time, I thought maybe it's the Lib Dems doing another poll clearly aimed at influencing rather than measuring the vote (I asked but they were unable to tell me who commissioned it), and if it's as small as the last one they did (400 people), my Labour-supporting voice could be worthwhile, so I did it - took longer than they said, and it was pretty much the same as the online polls I get from the same company every few days; but when I do them online, they take less time and I get paid for them. (No, it's not YouGov, it's a company that actually pays over minimum wage for their surveys.) So I don't reckon I'll bother if anyone else phones me to do another one.

A bit odd that I was targeted twice in as many days for these, though. I wonder if that's just a coincidence.