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The 'who the fuck am I even actually going to vote for?' thread

Started by BritishHobo, October 29, 2019, 11:27:17 PM

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Replies From View

Quote from: buttgammon on November 03, 2019, 05:42:18 PM
I reckon my 91 year old grandmother, who has been voting Labour since Attlee was the leader, is going to vote for the fuckers too.

Why on earth?  What appeals to her about the modern Conservative Party and Boris Johnson?  Is she actively persuaded by them/him or does she just not understand what is happening?

Can you help her understand that voting for her grandchildren and great-grandchildren (and everyone in that generation) needs to be her priority, and that Labour is the only hope for everything that matters?

olliebean

Quote from: Dr Rock on November 06, 2019, 05:13:46 PM
It is possible that a large chunk of those who voted LibDem instead of Labour in the EU elections are sticking with it, but how come that's not being reflected in any of the national polls?

I think Finchley and Golders Green is a special case, it has a large Jewish population (hence the Lib Dems helicoptering in a prominently Jewish candidate), and also voted over 2/3 Remain; so both Tories and Labour are losing votes to the Lib Dems here more than the national average.

The poll on the Lib-Dem's fake newspaper is an actual recent (well, about a month ago) local poll on voting intention, not based on the EU elections. Still, only 400 people doesn't tell you anything with a great degree of certainty - and things can change greatly during the campaign period, as 2017 showed.

Here's the poll results, if you want to look at them in more detail: https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Finchley-and-Golders-Green-Tables-for-website.xlsx

Zetetic

Specifically a candidate with name recognition in large part relating to resignation from the Labour party citing allegations of antisemitic abuse.

The Labour candidate ticks the Remain box and vocal about tackling antisemitism box for what it's worth.

Dr Rock

Quote from: olliebean on November 06, 2019, 05:00:13 PM
I've looked up the survey and it seems to be pretty straight - a phone poll with only two questions: How likely are you to vote? and Who will you vote for? with the order of the candidates randomised. None of this "if none of the other parties stood a chance" nonsense. Although they only asked 400 people, which gives a pretty big margin of error. It's possible they commissioned a bunch of small polls, so they could cherry pick the most advantageous one for their campaign.

The one I looked at was Portsmouth South. Again only asked 400 people, and used phones - do they mean landlines? Young people don't tend to have them. The Portsmouth South had the 18-34 age range represented by just 77 people. Something fishy going on.

Dr Rock

Quote from: olliebean on November 06, 2019, 06:22:40 PM
Here's the poll results, if you want to look at them in more detail: https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Finchley-and-Golders-Green-Tables-for-website.xlsx

Hmm, again only asked 79 people in the 18-34 range (who tended to prefer Labour compared with the other ranges)
34-54 = 174 people
55+ = 130

Is that legit?

Zetetic

It's not ridiculous in itself.

The margins of error are going to be pretty high given the multiple possible answers and small numbers, and as hinted somewhere above there's plausibly a particular problem with representativeness in that group (which the weighting methodology might actually magnify?).

I wouldn't be super-confident that the LDs are actually the front-runners even right now in 'voting intention' there, given there's only 10% between them and the size of the sample. (That's very much "what I reckon" though.)

buttgammon

Quote from: Replies From View on November 06, 2019, 06:18:32 PM
Why on earth?  What appeals to her about the modern Conservative Party and Boris Johnson?  Is she actively persuaded by them/him or does she just not understand what is happening?

Can you help her understand that voting for her grandchildren and great-grandchildren (and everyone in that generation) needs to be her priority, and that Labour is the only hope for everything that matters?

I've spent years and years trying to get this message across with her and everyone in my family, and it just gets ignored sadly. Getting Brexit Done At All Costs is the only thing that matters now and despite displaying his inability to even do that, he's the man for the job apparently. Now, she hasn't explicitly said she's going to vote Tory, but she's praised them a lot and slagged off Labour a lot so it's a real possibility.

Perhaps even more infuriating is my mum's insistence she will vote Lib Dem, despite the fact that she's well aware of the situation in our constituency, doesn't want the Tories to stay in power, and agrees with me that the coalition was a disaster.

Zetetic


gib

Quote from: Zetetic on November 06, 2019, 08:43:04 PM
LibDems in Putney misrepresenting projections as local polls:
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1192044683742056449

The bloody sods are doing this all over the country. It's going to get them quite a few votes from people who don't follow politics closely.

Dr Rock

If they're doing it all over the country it's a strategy and Swindleson needs to answer for it.


olliebean

Have we covered the Lib Dem flyers attributing quotes to the Guardian and Sky News that are actually quotes from Swinson that were just reported by the Guardian and Sky News yet?

Replies From View

Quote from: olliebean on November 06, 2019, 10:07:47 PM
Have we covered the Lib Dem flyers attributing quotes to the Guardian and Sky News that are actually quotes from Swinson that were just reported by the Guardian and Sky News yet?

It's like when someone added that Miles Jupp loves tea tasting on Wikipedia.  It was referenced on Have I Got News For You or something while he was a panellist and he didn't bother challenging them on it, and thus Wikipedia was able to get a reputable citation for the fallacy.

Good isn't it.

gib

Quote from: olliebean on November 06, 2019, 10:07:47 PM
Have we covered the Lib Dem flyers attributing quotes to the Guardian and Sky News that are actually quotes from Swinson that were just reported by the Guardian and Sky News yet?

Yes we have and I got one through the door today with my post.

Ferris

Labour or SNP, as is my wont.

The labour candidate in my seat is a bit of a wally, but so is the SNP candidate. It's an old-fashioned wally-off.

greenman

Quote from: thugler on November 05, 2019, 12:22:28 PM
Previously it's always been corbyn focused though. Surely some anti brexit people are going to see that this damages the prospect of remaining?

You can see the way they have always "one upped" Labour, shifting from demanding a second ref to saying they'll cancel Brexit article 50 that there just after the most basic unreasoned anti Brexit stance rather than any kind of reasoned politics.

Swinson does seem to be this elections May to me, drunk on the media backing and a previous election result potentially pissing away a stronger position.

Buelligan

Quote from: olliebean on November 06, 2019, 05:00:13 PM
So here's the bar graph that came through the door today on the front of a fake newspaper:



I've looked up the survey and it seems to be pretty straight - a phone poll with only two questions: How likely are you to vote? and Who will you vote for? with the order of the candidates randomised. None of this "if none of the other parties stood a chance" nonsense. Although they only asked 400 people, which gives a pretty big margin of error. It's possible they commissioned a bunch of small polls, so they could cherry pick the most advantageous one for their campaign.

But regardless, it's started me thinking about whether, if they are actually the best chance of defeating the Tories, I would vote Lib Dem - and I don't think I could. Partly because I'm not convinced they're anti-Tory, but mostly because I am convinced they're anti-Labour, what with all they've been saying lately. (Also all the lying doesn't exactly make them seem like a palatable option.)

So I guess it's Labour for me, no matter what the graphs and tactical voting wonks say. (At least unless the Greens suddenly and unexpectedly look to be in with a chance.) I won't vote for a party that is explicitly opposed to the party I want to win.

I agree that you need to vote Labour here - remember at the last election, which was in a period where the AS onslaught had already begun, the Labour candidate only lost by 1657 votes.  This was a candidate whose name was quite possibly already tainted within the electorate enough to lose him support.  If it's at all possible for you, I urge you to go out and campaign for Ross Houston. 

As far as Luciana Berger goes, she's left Labour, she's left Tinge, she's left Liverpool Wavertree, the only thing she hasn't left is herself.  That tells you something about her motivations.

olliebean

Quote from: Buelligan on November 07, 2019, 09:22:31 AM
I agree that you need to vote Labour here - remember at the last election, which was in a period where the AS onslaught had already begun, the Labour candidate only lost by 1657 votes.  This was a candidate whose name was quite possibly already tainted within the electorate enough to lose him support.

This is a very important point which goes to the credibility of the Lib Dem's poll. The poll named the "tainted" Jeremy Newmark as the Labour candidate, in spite of the fact that at the time the poll was taken, he had already stated he wouldn't be standing.

BritishHobo

Not keen on this Plaid/Lib Dem alliance stuff. I can't blame Plaid for having trouble with Labour, as they're the unthroned ming in Wales, have been forever, and have done fuck-all. But I still see Corbyn's non-Welsh Labour as being a much better friend to Plaid/Remain voters/socialists in Wales than Jo Swinson's fucking Lib Dems. Am I naive in hoping that a Corbyn government might go some of the way to alleviating the problems existing in Wales and Scotland? Maybe, and maybe this is something I'll wind up being disenfranchised by in later elections. But fuck me are Swinson's Lib Dems a shower of arseholes.

bgmnts

The only time i'd ever vote for Plaid and they fucked it by being cunts.

PowerButchi

Quote from: BritishHobo on November 07, 2019, 09:58:28 PM
Not keen on this Plaid/Lib Dem alliance stuff. I can't blame Plaid for having trouble with Labour, as they're the unthroned ming in Wales, have been forever, and have done fuck-all. But I still see Corbyn's non-Welsh Labour as being a much better friend to Plaid/Remain voters/socialists in Wales than Jo Swinson's fucking Lib Dems. Am I naive in hoping that a Corbyn government might go some of the way to alleviating the problems existing in Wales and Scotland? Maybe, and maybe this is something I'll wind up being disenfranchised by in later elections. But fuck me are Swinson's Lib Dems a shower of arseholes.

To say I'm fuming is a fucking understatement. If Carrie Harper steps down for a Lib Dem in Wrexham I'll be furious. In Clwyd South I'm voting for Susan Elan Jones for sure now, even if I don't currently like Labour much. Plaid have had an absolute mare with this electoral pact bollocks. How can a left wing party get into bed with the fucking Lib Dems? There's more to politics than fucking Brexit, and Brexit wouldn't be on the fucking agenda if the Lib Dems didn't decide to Lambada with Cameron in 2010 anyway.

Brexit is of Lib Dems making, and the wankers are the ones acting as the rebels against it.

Dr Rock

Quote from: The IndependentIt's also interesting to consider whether the pact might have some unintended consequences. Voters are not automatons and do not always go where party leadership want them to go. For example, it's entirely possible that in seats where a Green candidate stands down, their voters go not to the Lib Dems, but to Labour

I think this could happen loads. Are there any Green or Plaid forums where you could see if people were not planning to vote LibDem as 'instructed'? Maybe some sort of campaign could be started like 'Don't trust the FibDems, use the pact to vote Labour' thing.

Neville Chamberlain

Whatever's happened to Change UK or whatever they're called? I miss that lovable bunch of hapless cunts.

greencalx

Quote from: BritishHobo on November 07, 2019, 09:58:28 PM
Not keen on this Plaid/Lib Dem alliance stuff. I can't blame Plaid for having trouble with Labour, as they're the unthroned ming in Wales, have been forever, and have done fuck-all. But I still see Corbyn's non-Welsh Labour as being a much better friend to Plaid/Remain voters/socialists in Wales than Jo Swinson's fucking Lib Dems.

I was sceptical of electoral pacts at the outset, and now seeing them in action my doubts are confirmed. The basic issue is one of denying voter choice. Yes, we have a shitty FPTP system that can make it difficult to challenge an incumbent. But the electorate does understand how to vote tactically under such circumstances, and it should be their decision which anti-incumbency candidate to fall behind. Suppose it did all work out for the Lib Dems, and they ended up in some sort of coalition (or, if you have a Swinson-style Reality Distortion Field, leading the country) - how legitimate would that vote be? It would give succour to the criticism of an "establishment stitch up".

I think Labour are right to stay well away from all this. But it's disingenuous of the LDs to criticise them for this: the LDs came first or second in just 50 constituencies in 2017, Labour in 560. If the LDs were serious about a pact with Labour, then logically they should field only 50 candidates.

Quote
Am I naive in hoping that a Corbyn government might go some of the way to alleviating the problems existing in Wales and Scotland?

I fear, yes. I am not that familiar with the Welsh situation, but in Scotland for the SNP to keep the independence dream alive they have to make sure that their large support base doesn't ebb away. So what you find is that the goalposts keep moving. Under Miliband, Scottish Labour was described as a "branch office" of the national party, with no autonomy or ability to develop their own policies. Now, under Corbyn, it's the opposite: the leftwing shift in the national leadership seems to be appreciated to some degree, but its the red Tories in Scottish Labour who are holding it back up here.

That said, I think a Labour minority government supported by the SNP could be interesting (quite possibly in a good way). Labour have kind of prepared the way for it with their "Not Now Bernard" position on a second independence referendum. If we do end up with Labour the largest party on the 13th (and I realise that's a big if), the discussion will be about timing rather than the principle of a referendum. My guess is that the Labour side will be hoping that after 2-3 years of a Labour government, enthusiasm for independence may subside. Personally I doubt that. In return, though, the SNP would probably have to agree to some policies on taxation and infrastructure investment that might take them a little bit out of their comfort zone. It also becomes harder to blame Westminster for when things go wrong when they are supporting the government of the day (although I suppose they can just blame the larger party instead, which probably plays quite well for them).

So after all that rambling, I don't think that a Corbyn government will change much up here. Antipathy towards Scottish Labour runs pretty deep, and it's hard to see how that can be turned around.

Zetetic

The biggest immediate problem in Wales remains money. There are many, many problems with Welsh Labour as a party and as a government, but the case of the latter they are hamstrung by the inadequacy of the block grant and the lack of assets in Wales.

(Scotland is starting from a far stronger position in almost every respect.)

A Labour Government in Westminster will tackle some of this. It's worth also being clear how much the fortunes of much of Wales depends on the state of towns and cities over the border. Wrexham is tied up with Liverpool. Powys depends on services in Shropshire. Newport and Cardiff can't escape Bristol. The health and care staffing crises can't be solved in Wales while England intensifies the problem on a far greater scale.


SpiderChrist

Greens standing down in my constituency, not a sniff of any comms from Labour yet, and a nailed-on majority for the Tory incumbent. Anybody care to tell me why I should bother voting at all?

Cuellar


Dr Rock


NJ Uncut

If you want an actual neighbour for a neighbour, vote Labour!*



*both my neighbours on left and right are lovely aul socialists