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March 28, 2024, 08:52:36 AM

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Erección general

Started by Darles Chickens, November 10, 2019, 08:21:10 PM

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So today is Spain's second general election of the year. The first returned a potential leftist majority, but was undermined by fighting between the two socialist parties, and ended up going nowhere.

It's been pissing with rain all day across the country, and turnout is down on last time. Exit polls are currently indicating the rise of the fascist VOX party to third place - joy. The socialists are still likely to come first, but serious doubts as to whether they'll be able to form government, particularly since Podemos were so stubborn last time. So looking like a PP/C's/VOX right-wing coalition, unless some miracle happens.

Anyone else following this? Going to be a long night. Spain always seemed such a progressive minded country, but to see a significant minority supporting a party who would happily turn a blind eye to domestic violence, toughen abortion laws, and blame the country's problems on all the immigrants (mostly the brown ones obvs) is just depressing.

Cardenio I

Quote from: Darles Chickens on November 10, 2019, 08:21:10 PM
Spain always seemed such a progressive minded country, but to see a significant minority supporting a party who would happily turn a blind eye to domestic violence, toughen abortion laws, and blame the country's problems on all the immigrants (mostly the brown ones obvs) is just depressing.

Spain's a progressive country if you're in the right place with the right people. But there are two Spains, and have been since at least 1936 - that's probably a bit pat, but you look at the projected Vox gains and shudder at the thought of what happened back then.

Not followed it closely enough to see any way out of it. Not a huge fan of Pedro Sanchez and I like what Podemos stands for but Pablo Iglesias comes off as an intransigent, semi megalomaniacal prick. You'd think with the stakes being what they were they could have formed a functional coalition. Fuck knows where they go from here. Depressing all round.

honeychile

Also not enchanted with the way Sánchez fell into - in fact drove - colonial consensus on Venezuela, although he's still been better than the other med countries with refugees. Hard to be optimistic at the moment though.

Shoulders?-Stomach!

Nationalist poison in Catalonia not helping Spaniards make moderate choices.

Cardenio I

Quote from: Shoulders?-Stomach! on November 10, 2019, 11:08:02 PM
Nationalist poison in Catalonia not helping Spaniards make moderate choices.

That's a Franco-tier take right there

Quote from: Cardenio I on November 10, 2019, 08:27:27 PM
Spain's a progressive country if you're in the right place with the right people. But there are two Spains, and have been since at least 1936 - that's probably a bit pat, but you look at the projected Vox gains and shudder at the thought of what happened back then.

Yes, I kind of agree, although the fascist, chauvinist, Franco-sympathising side had been basically a vestige until fairly recently.  Of course the far right exist in every country, but, as with Brexit, they've recently been given a voice, and it has emboldened them.

The problem Spain faces now is a vicious cycle which will ramp up the division.  Many Catalans seek independence because they want nothing to do with the old Spain personified by the likes of Vox (as clearly demonstrated by the election results in Catalonia), and with good reason.  With Vox taking 52 out of 350 seats this time, it will fuel their determination to get out.  But Vox will capitalise on the increased resolve of the independentistas, with divisive authoritarian rhetoric like banning pro-independence parties, and, if this ends up going to a third election, they'll increase their vote share even more.  I think this is going to get nasty.

Quote from: Cardenio I on November 10, 2019, 08:27:27 PM
Not followed it closely enough to see any way out of it. Not a huge fan of Pedro Sanchez and I like what Podemos stands for but Pablo Iglesias comes off as an intransigent, semi megalomaniacal prick. You'd think with the stakes being what they were they could have formed a functional coalition. Fuck knows where they go from here. Depressing all round.

I had big hopes for Podemos, but they lost traction and then the in-fighting began.  A second party, Más País, splintered off (led by former Podemos strategist Íñigo Errejón), and then Iglesias seemed unwilling to make any compromises, which did him no favours with the public.  A shame, because Podemos had a bunch of great policies, but no one could trust them as they seemingly couldn't even trust each other.

The depressing thing is that Iglesias was on the news this morning, reaching out to Sánchez, saying a progressive government is needed more than ever in order to combat the far right.  Yes.  But it's a bit late now: Vox doubled their seats, making them a very real political force comparable with the Dutch and Italian right, and the damage is already done.  Spain could already have had a PSOE+Podemos coalition government, which may have been enough to cool the Catalonia issue down a bit, and would've prevented (or at least postponed) the rise of Vox.

Still, it hasn't ended as badly as I was expecting.  Between them, the right (PP+C's+Vox) don't have an absolute majority, meaning that there's a possibility of a vaguely leftist grouping operating a minority government.  Or if C's are willing to form some sort of pact with PSOE, there could be some kind of deeply unsatisfying majority cobbled together.  But I won't be surprised now if talks fall apart and we're on track for a third election erection sometime next summer.

dr beat

I've been following this quite closely.  Do you think this PSOE/Podemos coalition has legs? Part of me thinks it might calm down the Catalonia issue a bit if they have to rely on their parties votes, but the other part of me is not so confident.