General Erection Thread Two: Let's Get Johnson Out (Of Number 10)

[Dr Rock]

I think the undecideds may come to Labour, all the Tories have is 'Get Brexit Done' and if that's your thing, you're already voting Tory. Canvassers can remind these undecideds about the free broadband, the newly announced train fare reductions, how the Tories are just promising five more years of austerity.

The NHS thing is a late game-changer that may still be percolating in many minds, and of course Trump is coming, that can't help the Tories.

[littlefoot]

I hold an inherent distrust of the polls this time around. It feels like there are just too many variables, too many swings that could occur almost on a whim, and Brexit particularly makes this an election unlike any other, where simple projections of tiny samples feels woefully inadequate.

Do polls do things like take into account grassroots activism? Social media campaigns? They feel quite reactionary and less able to make good predictions.

Or maybe I'm just optimistic.

[pancreas]

I think the undecideds may come to Labour, all the Tories have is 'Get Brexit Done' and if that's your thing, you're already voting Tory. Canvassers can remind these undecideds about the free broadband, the newly announced train fare reductions, how the Tories are just promising five more years of austerity.

The NHS thing is a late game-changer that may still be percolating in many minds, and of course Trump is coming, that can't help the Tories.

You ain't canvassing in fucking Bishop Auckland, cunt.

[Norton Canes]

The Prime Minister shamelessly plagiarizes a blog post made by The Secret Barrister regarding the sentencing of Usman Khan

[littlefoot]

Surely this kind of flagrant behaviour will affect floating voters in marginal seats.

[thugler]

This train prices cut is a great policy. Can see that changing a few people's mind if it cuts through

[Dr Rock]

You ain't canvassing in fucking Bishop Auckland, cunt.

Fair point. Christ, why do people even want Brexit anymore? All the evidence is that its stupid. Isn't most of it people refusing to believe they were wrong in the first place? Or do they have a set of delusions why it's still a good idea? All they go on about is how they won, and that it's not fair it hasn't happened.

[littlefoot]

This train prices cut is a great policy. Can see that changing a few people's mind if it cuts through

Even better if any marginals are in the South West Trains catchment area.

[greencalx]

Do polls do things like take into account grassroots activism? Social media campaigns? They feel quite reactionary and less able to make good predictions.

Polls are too blunt an instrument to capture local differences. The "best of breed" in this regard are the MRP models which try and throw a whole bunch of factors into a bucket to work out how people are going to vote at the constituency level. YouGov's model (which no-one believed at first) did a decent job of 2017, which is why I'm willing to give it some attention this time round. I think it's a useful tool for identifying battlegrounds - campaigners can't be everywhere, and models like this are probably the best evidence available to optimise a finite resource. But YouGov themselves say the data are insufficient to account for all local factors: ultimately, it has about 100 respondents per seat. The sampling errors on that are about 10% (you will see that the confidence intervals are correspondingly large) - but the fact that it's based on more than just a simple statement of voting intention compensates a bit. However, it was notable in 2017 that a lot of Scottish were poorly predict, I suspect because the model relied on assumptions that reflect typical electoral behaviour in England and Wales, but not in Scotland. (Also the 2015 result in Scotland was perhaps a bit anomalous to begin with, although I think we may well revert to that in 2019, making 2017 the anomaly).

My default position is that, yes, local campaigns can and will make a difference, and it all comes down to the distribution of the vote. However, the averages still give an indication of a likely outcome. Gaps of up to six points point towards a hung parliament, so let's get there first (and we may, in fact, already be there). Less than 3 points and it starts to become a toss-up as to who will form the largest party, and this is where the local differences will be crucial.

[Fambo Number Mive]

IFS say the Tory plans for.local government will result in more cuts to social care services.

[greencalx]

IFS say the Tory plans for.local government will result in more cuts to social care services.

They also say that council tax is likely to go up under the Tories, but not under Labour. Hope that message gets out there.

[Dr Rock]

It was conspicuously absent from their 'triple lock' wasn't it?

[holyzombiejesus]

Are these odds as stupid as I think they are?

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/constituencies

[Zetetic]

For the avoidance of doubt:
Jo Swindon did not accept £14k from a fracking company.

She accepted £14k from the director of a company that has obtained a license for fracking which is absolutely fine.

[Zetetic]

The director in question likely doesn't know what company he works for, and the license is probably just resting in the company's filing cabinet.

[Rizla]

Are these odds as stupid as I think they are?

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/constituencies

The odds do seem odd - where i am, it's got 1/5 snp, 10/1 labour, 5/1 tory. SNP maj went from something like 3500 to half that in the last 2 elections, it was always lab before that - never been tory, ever.

[holyzombiejesus]

Yeah, tories have a majority of 609 here, greens who had over 600 at the last election have stood down to help Labour but we're 9/4 at best with the tories on 3/10. Certainly not what I'm seeing out canvassing (although, geographically we're huge so there may be poskets where everyone is getting behind the cunties).

[greencalx]

Remember that betting odds are determined on the cash value of the bets placed, not the number of individual bets. This I think is one of reasons why the betting markets favoured an easy Remain win in 2016. (Lots of small bets against vs a small number of big bets in favour).

[idunnosomename]

Fair point. Christ, why do people even want Brexit anymore? All the evidence is that its stupid. Isn't most of it people refusing to believe they were wrong in the first place?

People base their entire identity on their opinions and simply can't admit they were wrong about anything. Especially on being confident about nationalism

[Thomas]

It's okay, everyone: according the Andrew Neil-affiliated Spectator, when Johnson used the words 'picaninny' and 'watermelon smiles', he was actually 'satirising' Blairite imperialism. Phew! Nice of a friendly magazine to swoop in and explain it for him after several months of scrutiny he didn't fancy addressing himself.

Looking forward to the articles on 'tank-topped bum boys' (actually a pro-Pride statement), his slurs against the working class (ironic Orwellian parody) and single mothers (feminism), and his declaration 'fuck business' (make love to business).

[kalowski]

Voting intentions of teachers. Over the last month more are looking to vote Labour.

[pancreas]

27% still thinking of voting for austerity parties. Let's hope they're doing most of it tactically.

[idunnosomename]

Brendan O'Neill defending ironic racism?!?!?!???!


Im shocked!!!!

[NoSleep]

Conservative (for once) selfishly votes Labour:

"I don't like Corbyn but leaders come and go," she said. "If I can believe in Labour, then £31,000 of the £45,000 I'm owed is evidently being given to me in compensation. I've spent my entire life worrying about the country, Europe, my kids, the NHS. Now I have to be selfish and worry about me."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/02/weve-been-robbed-women-pension-age-vote

[greencalx]

Things have gone a bit quiet.

I take it that there's not going to be a Neil vs Johnson showdown now. Probably doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, but it would be nice to see BJ get rinsed a couple more times in the election.

[idunnosomename]

He'll probably do another interview after the postal vote deadline

[phantom_power]

It is funny how the centrist celebs only talk about tactical voting when it is the Lib Dems who are set to gain, rather than Labour or the Greens. The only exception to this seems to be Hugh Grant, oddly, who seems happy to campaign with Lib Dem or Labour, depending on the constituency and who might unseat the Tories

[Leo2112]

Things have gone a bit quiet.

I take it that there's not going to be a Neil vs Johnson showdown now. Probably doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, but it would be nice to see BJ get rinsed a couple more times in the election.

There's certainly things that the media could have been talking about in the last few days.  Out of that shambles of a Marr interview yesterday, Johnson admitted the Tories had no social care plan (despite promising one a few months ago).  Today Labour announced a pledge to cut all rail fares by a third.

Of course, all we are hearing about is the London bridge attack.  On the whole it's a story which helps Johnson, and the BBC will wring as much as they can from it this week.

[New folder]

The only exception to this seems to be Hugh Grant, oddly, who seems happy to campaign with Lib Dem or Labour, depending on the constituency and who might unseat the Tories

It's a shame that he's campaigning for Berger and Umunna in the constituencies where Labour did much better than the Lib Dems in 2017, but I assume he just believes the fake pissdiamond polls and supports any candidate as long as they are remain.

[greencalx]

Today Labour announced a pledge to cut all rail fares by a third.

I'm surprised there hasn't been pushback against this, as something else that "wasn't costed in the manifesto". (Or was it? I haven't checked).

Not entirely sure London Bridge is entirely in the Tories' favour: the relatives have complained about BJ politicising it. I'm sure he will be asked, repeatedly, to apologise when he next faces an interrogator.