General Erection Thread Two: Let's Get Johnson Out (Of Number 10)

[bgmnts]

Finally got around to pulling the campaign leaflets from my letterbox and only have Labour, Tory and Plaid Cymru.

I must say, the Tory leaflet is FUCKING embarrassing, even by Tory standards. It doesnt matter as Monmouthshire is a pretty safe Tory seat historically but it is the most nothing piece of political literature I've ever seen.

I hate having to be represented by Monmouthshire and having David Davies MP do a talk in one of politics classes made me feel like I need a shower, he's such a smarmy little wanker.

Anyway, Plaid had the only decent leaflet so may vote for them fuck it.

[pancreas]

Finally got around to pulling the campaign leaflets from my letterbox and only have Labour, Tory and Plaid Cymru.

I must say, the Tory leaflet is FUCKING embarrassing, even by Tory standards. It doesnt matter as Monmouthshire is a pretty safe Tory seat historically but it is the most nothing piece of political literature I've ever seen.

I hate having to be represented by Monmouthshire and having David Davies MP do a talk in one of politics classes made me feel like I need a shower, he's such a smarmy little wanker.

Anyway, Plaid had the only decent leaflet so may vote for them fuck it.

Labour has a non-zero chance there. Vote Labour, or someone—no-one knows who—may break your legs.

[colacentral]

The Tory lead in Monmouthshire isn't totally insurmountable. Could get some remain Tories going Lib Dem, a few dying of old age in the last two years, some snowed in on polling day / can't be arsed etc. It's doable, so vote Labour rather than pissing it away.

https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2017-06-08/results/Location/Constituency/Monmouth

[Buelligan]

Labour has a non-zero chance there. Vote Labour, or someone—no-one knows who—may break your legs.

I was just coming here to say that.  I'm not even laughing.

Labour are going to take it and you will have the pleasure of wiping that smile off of Davies' Brexiteering little weasel-face.  Fucking do it laddy.

[bgmnts]

Talk about carrot and stick!

I may sound like a fucking div, which I am, but I suppose I WANT to vote for Green or Plaid, but I have to vote for Labour.

I hate this election, I hate these politics.

[Buelligan]

You have to vote Labour if you want to see that awful right-wing little swine lose his seat, yes.  By any yardstick you should be out knocking doors for Labour too, have you gone quite mad?

Where d'you live by the way, if that's not a rude question?  I know that area very well, I might pop round with a cattle-prod.

[bgmnts]

I live in Cwmbran, only a small area of the town is Monmouth, the rest is Torfaen which I think is a safe Labour seat. It would be rude to cattle-prod me.


I should canvass but i'd feel a bit of a hypocrite as I am not a member of the Labour party.

[Buelligan]

Think about joining the party or Momentum but, whatever you do, please put up a Labour poster and vote Labour and do whatever you can to get Corbyn elected so's you don't have to live in a country being poured down the shithole any longer.  Do it, for your own sake if no one else's.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Lots of smug tweets from Tories/Lib Dems about the New Blairsman. So angry with the magazine.

Sorry, just wanted to rant. Their timing is really vile as well.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Talk about carrot and stick!

I may sound like a fucking div, which I am, but I suppose I WANT to vote for Green or Plaid, but I have to vote for Labour.

I hate this election, I hate these politics.

It's putting a cross in a box once every few years, get over it.

If you want to see Green or PC thrive help them at local level by campaigning for their councillors.

We know the voting system is shit, but a Tory government is shitter.

[Paul Calf]

The Tory lead in Monmouthshire isn't totally insurmountable. Could get some remain Tories going Lib Dem, a few dying of old age in the last two years, some snowed in on polling day / can't be arsed etc. It's doable, so vote Labour rather than pissing it away.

https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2017-06-08/results/Location/Constituency/Monmouth

And remember, the less secure the majorities are of MPs, the narrower the field of candidates to choose for cabinet positions.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Like Amber Rudd

[greenman]

[tag]New Statesman becomes A Spectator[/tag]

[colacentral]

I just had a look at the Great Grimsby constituency stats for the last two elections, because I keep seeing it tipped to go Tory due to the leave vote. But I don't see how that's possible.

https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2017-06-08/results/Location/Constituency/Great%20Grimsby

https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2015-05-07/results/Location/Constituency/Great%20Grimsby

You can see that turnout didn't increase too much in 2017 over 2015, about 57% each time. The Conservatives increased their vote share in 2017 by hoovering up all the UKIP votes. If they'd managed to take literally every UKIP vote they'd still only be about level with Labour. A slight increase in youth vote plus increased tactical voting sees them off. Plus with it being a Labour seat, Brexit Party are running.

I understand there'll be the odd 90 year old Labour nutter voting Tory because of Brexit, but I still don't see it.

Am I being too optimistic? The numbers don't add up for me. The only way it works for the Tories is if the turnout drops.

Is anyone here from Grimsby or campaigning there who can shed some light on what they're hearing?

I'm also interested to hear from people in similar Labour seats in the North and Midlands which the media keep tipping to go Tory, whether they really think there's any chance?

[BlodwynPig]

Lots of smug tweets from Tories/Lib Dems about the New Blairsman. So angry with the magazine.

Sorry, just wanted to rant. Their timing is really vile as well.

I know nothing of the New Statesman, is it a Marxist tome?

[Buelligan]

I just had a look at the Great Grimsby constituency stats for the last two elections, because I keep seeing it tipped to go Tory due to the leave vote. But I don't see how that's possible.

https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2017-06-08/results/Location/Constituency/Great%20Grimsby

https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2015-05-07/results/Location/Constituency/Great%20Grimsby

You can see that turnout didn't increase too much in 2017 over 2015, about 57% each time. The Conservatives increased their vote share in 2017 by hoovering up all the UKIP votes. If they'd managed to take literally every UKIP vote they'd still only be about level with Labour. A slight increase in youth vote plus increased tactical voting sees them off. Plus with it being a Labour seat, Brexit Party are running.

I understand there'll be the odd 90 year old Labour nutter voting Tory because of Brexit, but I still don't see it.

Am I being too optimistic? The numbers don't add up for me. The only way it works for the Tories is if the turnout drops.

Is anyone here from Grimsby or campaigning there who can shed some light on what they're hearing?

I'm also interested to hear from people in similar Labour seats in the North and Midlands which the media keep tipping to go Tory, whether they really think there's any chance?

I saw this on the BBC this morning about how food bank users and voters in Grimsby are going to vote.  Made me hope there are some Labour people up there spreading the word, by Christ, it needs doing.

[colacentral]

I can't watch it yet. I think I saw someone on Twitter say that the BBC managed to find food bank users voting Tory, is that right? Put that in the desolation thread.

[Buelligan]

There was one couple saying they "liked what Boris had to say" and one homeless man who said he'd always voted tory in the past but would vote Labour this time.  All the others and there were plenty (both users and those working there), said they didn't know how to vote.  Those are the ones that need talking to, and very soon, IMO.

[colacentral]

#page48 is trending at the moment, as in, of the Tory manifesto.

This tweet highlights its awfulness: https://twitter.com/aalyta4192/status/1202482779159744514?s=19

[Norton Canes]

From the BBC live updates today


Javid won't criticise PM over 'letterboxes' comments

Chancellor Sajid Javid declines to criticise Prime Minister Boris Johnson when asked about Islamophobia in the Conservative Party on Radio 4's Today programme.

Mr Javid is asked whether he would make comments such as those made by Mr Johnson about Muslim women wearing the veil looking like "letterboxes".

"I don't write articles... he was a journalist and he's written lots of articles, as he said himself. People can pick one word out or another, but what matters is the kind of prime minister he is going to be," he says.

"When it comes to our nation and the great diversity of it, it's hard to find anyone who celebrates it more than Boris Johnson does."

#ATAC


What exactly did Baroness Warsi say in that interview?

During this morning's interview on the Today programme with Chancellor Sajid Javid, presenter Martha Kearney referred to an interview with Baroness Warsi on BBC Radio 4's World at One last week, in which she said he was in a "very difficult position" with regards to Islamophobia in her own party.

"To call out Islamophobia within the Conservative Party, to hold the party to account for its racism, is effectively a career-ending moment, and I can completely understand why Sajid would not want to be as blunt and as honest as I know he is," said the former Conservative cabinet minister.

She added that Mr Javid was put under pressure to "roll back" from calling for an independent inquiry into Islamophobia in the party, and to "water it down" into an inquiry into prejudice more broadly.

"I hope that one day Sajid will be braver and bolder, but I'm not going to criticise him in the meantime if he's got an eye on his political career," she said

#ATAC

[greencalx]

Bear in mind that reporters like stories to have "news value".

Dyed-in-the-wool Labour voter plans to vote Labour = not news.
Dyed-in-the-wool Labour voter plans to vote Tory = news.

Therefore reporting may not be representative. That's what I'm hoping anyway.

Stubborn 10-point gap making me nervous - more 6s or less would make me feel more confident about keeping the Tories at bay.

[NoSleep]

The 3m newly registered, mainly young voters are maybe not factored in the polls. I think those who registered did so with intent.

[kitsofan34]

The constituency I volunteer in yesterday did a lot of the newly registered voters, most of whom were Labour. Broke four records for the constituency:

1) Largest number of boards canvassed in a day
2) Largest number of canvassers out in a day
3) Largest number of Labour promises in a day
4) Largest number of contacts made in a day.

782 contacts made, 527 Labour pledges.

[Paulie Walnuts]

socialists demonstrating their economic illiteracy again

https://twitter.com/i/status/1202327451721973761

[holyzombiejesus]

The constituency I volunteer in yesterday did a lot of the newly registered voters, most of whom were Labour. Broke four records for the constituency:

1) Largest number of boards canvassed in a day
2) Largest number of canvassers out in a day
3) Largest number of Labour promises in a day
4) Largest number of contacts made in a day.

782 contacts made, 527 Labour pledges.

Fucking hell, that's great! Put a right spring in my step, that has.

[holyzombiejesus]

Stubborn 10-point gap making me nervous - more 6s or less would make me feel more confident about keeping the Tories at bay.

Yeah, me too. Still a week to go though, significant numbers of undecideds to convince.

[Buelligan]

Fucking hell, that's great! Put a right spring in my step, that has.

Yes, that's absolutely phenomenal and exciting!

FWIW, after a long and tiring battle, I too have become enfranchised again and my sweet, sweet, vote is already winging it's way, over land and sea, towards Johnson's pyre.  I'm sure there are many others who've done the same.

[colacentral]

The polls not moving recently is down to it being a slow few days for news, I reckon. Since the London bridge attack it's been pretty low key, plus no Andrew Neil interview etc.

Despatches is bound to get a highlight reel on Gogglebox, I hope. Then there's the next debate. Also remember that YouGov were 7 points off last time and currently we have a 9 point difference with them. You'd assume the biggest shifts will be in the last week.

Also, as said previously, a partial reduction in Labour vote share could be attributed to tactical voting. Sinn Fein stepping down in 3 seats will most likely take 2 seats off the DUP, so that's a bit of a buffer.

Worth also keeping in mind that the Tories scraped through last time via some shock Scot results. Let's hope those Tory voting Scot cunts care more about stopping no deal Brexit than stopping the SNP this time.

[holyzombiejesus]

How far off were we with a week to go last time? In a way, I'm glad the polls aren't showing us neck and neck. I keep imagining the moment the exit poll drops and how different it felt in 2015 and 2017. Hope's a right fucker sometimes.

[colacentral]

If anything fucks us it will be those Lib Dem graphs I think. I really think those have confused the fuck out of people who aren't on the internet much.