The future of the Labour Party: Where does it go from here?

[phantom_power]

I think you can't underestimate the way the whole thing added to the general disliking of him though, even if it was just "...and then there's the AS stuff" added onto other complaints. It moulds the whole subconscious idea that there is something bad and wrong about Corbyn. It is also a way of shutting down any discussion, especially about Tory racism. Any accusations against Johnson etc. are said to be whataboutism or deflection. Any good points that get made can be rebuffed with "yes, but antisemitism". Trying to get that off the table is really important in a holistic sense I think

[Dr Rock]

This was a freak election where Labour brexit voters stupidly threw their in lot with the Tories, that won't happen next time, especially if Brexit is a disaster. Labour got 32% of the vote. If roughly 12% were lost to voting for Brexit instead of a better society, Labour can probably get them back next time, ie to about 44%

[NoSleep]

The AS accusations are just an excuse to hide from their own consciences for people that voted Tory. Criticism of Corbyn has to be the laziest excuse for voting Tory given how it's been fuelled by a barrage of utter bullshit for the last 4 years.

[phantom_power]

I think Brexit was definitely a major factor but I think it foolish to underestimate or ignore the fact that Corbyn was unpopular with a lot of people that Labour need to be appealing to in order to win. There are obviously a lot of reasons for this dislike, some that aren't really to do with who Corbyn really is, but they still need to be addressed in some way. Keeping our head in the ideological sand won't help

[Monsieur Verdoux]

The AS stuff was enough to have him lose support of the Jewish community, with those surveys that showed he overwhelmingly wasn't trusted, and that public professing of dissatisfaction only fuelled wider distrust of him from non-Jews. The AS stuff, in terms of its impact on the larger portrait of Corbyn as a dodgy figure, was certainly not nothing. And as Phantom Power indicates there needs to be better strategy on it, otherwise it will continue to be a harmful factor that is easily cynically weaponised

[solidified gruel merchant]

I think you can't underestimate the way the whole thing added to the general disliking of him though, even if it was just "...and then there's the AS stuff" added onto other complaints. It moulds the whole subconscious idea that there is something bad and wrong about Corbyn. It is also a way of shutting down any discussion, especially about Tory racism. Any accusations against Johnson etc. are said to be whataboutism or deflection. Any good points that get made can be rebuffed with "yes, but antisemitism". Trying to get that off the table is really important in a holistic sense I think

I agree. I think our enemies took advantage of the kinder gentler politics by being utterly ruthless bastards. We won't have those shackles on next time. Kinder, gentler politics can be enacted once we're in power. Until then we're in a war and we're losing.

[buttgammon]

They'll find a way to keep those allegations up against practically any new leader anyway. Even Bernie Sanders is being accused of antisemitism now (spot the problem there). That's not to say Labour don't have to do something to shut people up, but that will be difficult in a world where even Jewish politicians are accused of antisemitism if it's politically expedient for their (sometimes genuinely antisemitic opponents) to do so.

[buttgammon]

I agree. I think our enemies took advantage of the kinder gentler politics by being utterly ruthless bastards. We won't have those shackles on next time. Kinder, gentler politics can be enacted once we're in power. Until then we're in a war and we're losing.

About an hour before the exit polls came out, I had a striking phone call with my mum. She was originally planning on voting Lib Dem but grew increasingly supportive of Corbyn as the campaign went on, and she said she was pessimistic precisely because Labour hadn't fought dirty enough. This really wasn't what I expected to hear at all, but that thought has stuck with me. The only thing is, Labour would get called out on a lot of shit the Tories have got away with, so there has to be a way of making the shit that needs to be thrown at the Tories stick.

[Johnny Yesno]

I agree. I think our enemies took advantage of the kinder gentler politics by being utterly ruthless bastards. We won't have those shackles on next time. Kinder, gentler politics can be enacted once we're in power. Until then we're in a war and we're losing.

In that scenario, our opponents will portray us as thugs. They'll always find something. In fact, this election was characterised by how Cummings's team used pretty much everything. It was a war of attrition in which they had access to huge financial resources.

If you're trying to figure out how to defend from just one line of attack, you're behind the curve.

[Gamma Ray]

Exactly. The battle isn't red on blue, it's power versus the powerless. The media is meant to hold politicians to account, but it's not doing that because they're part of the same set. I'm not sure how to get round this, as no matter how bad things get the media will find a way to avoid any blame for the establishment. I think that the only real solution is to totally ignore the lot of them and self organise.

[solidified gruel merchant]

Call them out on it. We didn't actually do that at all did we? We took the stance that the smears were basically correct and went from there into a stumbling mess of apologies and capitulations. The next leader should turn the spot light on the accusers and the media. It shouldn't be difficult to mount an effective campaign against this sort of underhand weaponising of racism. We have the facts on our side.

[Gamma Ray]

How, without media support?

[NoSleep]

Is it possible to focus on growing an alternative media outlet through something like Patreon? I'm looking at Double Down News and Novara as starting points. If it's so important then these are the things that require financing before all else; but focus being the operative word (even if it means having all your eggs in one large basket rather than 10 small ones). All those people who diligently don't pay the Guardian (and feel rage reading their lies) could chip in.

[Monsieur Verdoux]

It will also be an uphill battle in part because the British public seems to have a much higher tolerance for islamophobia and general anti-arab sentiment than they do for antisemitism, which is partly why the coverage was unequal in this election. Boris doesn't invite the same degree of scrutiny on his comments because of an unfortunately widespread perception that his views are 'common sense'. The media are not an actively anti-racist force, the pressure on them must be higher, which requires solidarity between groups

[solidified gruel merchant]

In that scenario, our opponents will portray us as thugs. They'll always find something. In fact, this election was characterised by how Cummings's team used pretty much everything. It was a war of attrition in which they had access to huge financial resources.

If you're trying to figure out how to defend from just one line of attack, you're behind the curve.

I think it's true that you don't win elections, you lose them. Only when the country are truly sick of a government will they cut through all the propaganda and boot them out. The media are opportunistic. They get the measure of the dogs in the race, gauge what they can get away with and go from there.
A strong leader not bound by self imposed decency and fairness and an electorate not squeamish about putting the boot in to a government of cunts is all that's required and is precisely the conditions I see playing out next time.

[solidified gruel merchant]

How, without media support?

We were very close in 2017 with the least support in living memory.

[NoSleep]

I'm not sure it was Johnson's "common sense" that prevailed, so much as his refusal to discuss anything without appending "get brexit done". He became a blank slate throughout the campaign and it succeeded because Labour leavers largely took the bait (probably just this once).

[Monsieur Verdoux]

I mean perception of 'common sense' specifically on the always latent race issue. It's not just Johnson who has 'common sense', it's any publication of media that is perceived as sufficiently anti-arab to be trustworthy

It's not just 'gammons' who are islamophobic and anti-arab, a lot of liberals are too

[Gamma Ray]

We were very close in 2017 with the least support in living memory.

60-odd seats short of a majority?

[Urinal Cake]

The AS also reminded people that Corbyn was a Muslim/Arab sympathiser.

[NoSleep]

It's not just 'gammons' who are islamophobic and anti-arab, a lot of liberals are too

It's a pillar of centrism.

[solidified gruel merchant]

Exactly. With the media shitting on us at every turn, we still gained 30 seats. And again that was more a reaction against May than anything we or the media did or didn't do.

[Monsieur Verdoux]

The AS also reminded people that Corbyn was a Muslim/Arab sympathiser.

Exactly, those kinds of bad faith accusations of AS are sometimes dogwhistles. Bolstering the "terrorist sympathiser" angle. It took me an embarrassingly long time to clock that people weren't really referring to the IRA with that

[phantom_power]

We can't insulate ourselves from every attack from the Tories and the media but the more desperate and stretching they are, the easier it will be for people to see through them. We can also avoid as many own goals as possible to focus the fight in the right areas

[Blinder Data]

I would caution against assuming that the seats in the 'Red Wall' will automatically flip back to Labour next time. Discounting the fact that the Tories will do everything, possibly even changing their priorities, to keep them, the demographic and cultural trends of these places could suggest a longer-term realignment. Like the 'rust-belt' in American turning away from the Democrats.

Seeing the Conservative branding of this election (e.g. "The People's Government") brings to mind how the likes of Dominic Cummings see politics: populist, spend big, tough on crime. It's Orban, Law & Justice Party stuff. The disillusionment of the stronghold seats with Labour is a long-term trend and the priority needs to be reversing it.

[BlodwynPig]

Remember when Shoulders was crowing how things would change when the "old" people died... I thought it was laughable then as it is criminally ridiculous now

[Zetetic]

Give it about 5 weeks, just in case.

[Blinder Data]

This is good from Aditya Chakrabortty who's been one of the more perceptive and Corbyn-friendly writers at the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/14/labour-meltdown-decades-govern-votes

[Petey Pate]

For me, one key reason why Labour shouldn't revert to being more centrist is that attempting to win over Tory voters is foolhardy. They already have a party to vote for (hint: it's called the Conservative and Unionist Party, even if they might have to slightly change their name when Scotland leaves). Sure, there are numerous vocal former Conservatives who despise Boris, Brexit and the rightward shift of the party, but they're a minority compared to the millions who didn't vote in the election. The vote share suggests that Labour lost due to abstention as the Conservative vote gained a little bit from 2017 but the number of Labour votes decreased. Also the seeds for the collapse of Labour support in the 'Red Wall' go back decades, and Blairism is as much a historical factor in this as Corbynism is today.

A left wing platform, or at least some form of European social democracy, can win in the UK. Evidently Corbyn wasn't the person to deliver it, but replacing him won't remove the campaigning left-wing membership and the centrists of the party will have to recognise this. At the same time, the left need to own their defeat and learn from it, it's no use blaming everyone else even if the reasons are correct. I also think that some of the hagiography surrounding Corbyn verged on the ridiculous, and didn't exactly help neuter the perception that Momentum was somehow a 'cult'. To continue this posthumously is useless. Obviously Corbyn was unfairly and constantly demonised, so his supporters were naturally inclined to defend him, but now doing so is redundant it is time for frank consideration on how his flaws contributed to his defeat and the lessons to be learned.

[NoSleep]

Abstaining Labour voters could explain why we didn't see the surge expected from the new voters (the overall turnout was down from 2017). Seems like the polls did factor this is.